Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability

Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability F. Flammini, S. Marrone, N. Mazzocca, V. Vittorini Stefano Marrone Dept. of Mathematics Second University of Naples CRITIS 2011 September 8-9, 2011 Luzern, Switzerland

Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability

Evaluation of physical protection ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability

Evaluation of physical protection ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability Frequency of the Threat Likelihood that attack is successful Damage an attack provokes

Challenges in vulnerability modelling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability effectiveness detection interruption neutralization sensing assessement

Challenges in vulnerability modelling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability Petri Nets Compositional extensible approach

Petri Net vulnerability Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability

Petri Net vulnerability Models ,[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability reaction delay (sensing, assessement, response) delay to accomplish attack

Petri Net vulnerability Models ,[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability

Petri Net vulnerability Models ,[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability

Evaluation on case studies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability Probability Latency Sensing (magnetic switches) P S = 98% L S = 5 sec Assessment (control room) P A = 95% L A = 45 sec Response (remote guards) P N = 95% L R = 180 sec Attack accomplishment (disconnect server and get out of room) L T =120 sec

Evaluation on case studies ,[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability Probability Latency Sensing (CBRNe detectors) P S = 95% L S = 15 sec Assessment (detection of source in crowded area) P A = 95% L A = 30 sec Response (local guards) P N = 95% L R = 30 sec Attack accomplishment (deflagrate, etc...) L T = 30 sec

Evaluation on case studies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability

Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful

Safecomp 2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S. Marrone - Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability

Petri Net Modelling of Physical Vulnerability

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