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Open Source Software is about Engineering Economics
There is NO Open Source Software Business Model
Freeloaders means you’re doing it right!
1950 1960 1970 200019901980 2010
Code sharing
At Princeton
IAS in late
1940s
IBM “SHARE”
Conf & Library
Begins 1953
DECUS
...
Stallman’s [Brilliant] Legal Hack
Collaboratively-Developed Liberally-Licensed Software is
about Engineering Economics
Democratization
All Things Digital …
Books, Movies, TV Don’t Change (Much)
Remaking a New Book or Movie
The Democratization of Software
Remove all the friction in the pipeline
But Software Is Incredibly Dynamic …
But it’s worse …
OSS Component Vuln Data
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Freetype FFMPEG Ch...
2012 Octoverse 4.6M+ repositories
2016 Octoverse 19.4M+ repositories
2018 Octoverse 96M+ repositories
Labs vs. Engineering
Anyone Can Learn to Program Now …
… But Learning Deployment & SRE Is Hard
?
… But Learning Deployment & SRE Is Hard
?
… And What About Programming Theory?
Cooking Software
We All Know How To Fry An Egg
We May Get Good Enough To Cook For Friends
We May Tackle
The Holiday
Meal
We May Get
Good At A
Particular Type
of Cooking.
Restaurants
We go from
this …
… to this.
This has implications
There is likely a team with specialized roles
There is an added layer of communications
There are st...
This has implications
There is likely a team with specialized roles
There is an added layer of communications
There are st...
Open Source Software Problems
Open Source Software Problems
Peter Naur and
‘Programming as
Theory Building’
http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~remzi/Naur.pdf
What does democratizing software mean?
stephen.walli@microsoft.com
Photo Credits
• Chem Lab on Flickr by theterrifictc
• Chem Factory on Flickr by BASF
• Shakespeare on Flickr by tonynetone...
The Democratization of Software (SeaGL 2018)
The Democratization of Software (SeaGL 2018)
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The Democratization of Software (SeaGL 2018)

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In 1995 everything changed with the creation of the World Wide Web. Anything that could be digitized was digitized and entire industries changed. And with the digitization came tools to help everyone become a producer of digital content. From music to video, books to journalism, we pulled all the friction out of the content pipeline and democratized entire industries.

But the industry we never talk about is the one that was already digital – software. Software was democratized as well. We’ve shared software for as long as we’ve written software. By pulling the friction out of the pipeline around software and sharing it liberally through open source licensing, we’ve ended up in a completely new software industry over the past 20 years.

This talk presents the trends that got the industry to where it is, as well as ideas for the coming challenges for the next twenty years of open source software. It might be a cautionary tale.

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The Democratization of Software (SeaGL 2018)

  1. 1. Open Source Software is about Engineering Economics
  2. 2. There is NO Open Source Software Business Model
  3. 3. Freeloaders means you’re doing it right!
  4. 4. 1950 1960 1970 200019901980 2010 Code sharing At Princeton IAS in late 1940s IBM “SHARE” Conf & Library Begins 1953 DECUS Conf & Library Begins 1962 MIT Project Athena Begins 1983 1BSD Released 1977 AT&T Shares First UNIX tapes early-70s Free Software Foundation Launches 1985 DoJ vs IBM begins “Software Bundling is Anti-competitive” 1969 IBM response is to unbundle HW, SW, & services pricing 1st DoJ vs IBM Consent Decree “Hardware Bundling is Anti-competitive” 1956 Open Source Definition 1998 USENIX Begins 1975 Linus Releases Linux 1991 Apache httpd Released 1995 Apache Software Foundation 1999 OSDL Forms 2000 OSDL Re-forms as Linux Foundation 2007 U.S. Congress Adds Computer Software to Copyright Law 1980 GCC 1987 emacs 1975 We’ve collaborated on software since we’ve written software Writing good software is hard work
  5. 5. Stallman’s [Brilliant] Legal Hack
  6. 6. Collaboratively-Developed Liberally-Licensed Software is about Engineering Economics
  7. 7. Democratization
  8. 8. All Things Digital …
  9. 9. Books, Movies, TV Don’t Change (Much)
  10. 10. Remaking a New Book or Movie
  11. 11. The Democratization of Software
  12. 12. Remove all the friction in the pipeline
  13. 13. But Software Is Incredibly Dynamic …
  14. 14. But it’s worse …
  15. 15. OSS Component Vuln Data 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Freetype FFMPEG Chromium Electron
  16. 16. 2012 Octoverse 4.6M+ repositories 2016 Octoverse 19.4M+ repositories 2018 Octoverse 96M+ repositories
  17. 17. Labs vs. Engineering
  18. 18. Anyone Can Learn to Program Now …
  19. 19. … But Learning Deployment & SRE Is Hard ?
  20. 20. … But Learning Deployment & SRE Is Hard ? … And What About Programming Theory?
  21. 21. Cooking Software
  22. 22. We All Know How To Fry An Egg
  23. 23. We May Get Good Enough To Cook For Friends
  24. 24. We May Tackle The Holiday Meal
  25. 25. We May Get Good At A Particular Type of Cooking.
  26. 26. Restaurants
  27. 27. We go from this …
  28. 28. … to this.
  29. 29. This has implications There is likely a team with specialized roles There is an added layer of communications There are standards to be met and maintained There needs to be reliable and repeatable delivery
  30. 30. This has implications There is likely a team with specialized roles There is an added layer of communications There are standards to be met and maintained There needs to be reliable and repeatable delivery There are customers There is a business to run There are regulations that need to be served There is money to be managed
  31. 31. Open Source Software Problems
  32. 32. Open Source Software Problems
  33. 33. Peter Naur and ‘Programming as Theory Building’ http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~remzi/Naur.pdf
  34. 34. What does democratizing software mean?
  35. 35. stephen.walli@microsoft.com
  36. 36. Photo Credits • Chem Lab on Flickr by theterrifictc • Chem Factory on Flickr by BASF • Shakespeare on Flickr by tonynetone • Berlin Wall on Flickr by Daniel Antal • Musicians on Flickr by Jorge Bernal • Block Buster on Flickr by Jason Kuffer • Newspapers on Flickr by Gary Thompson • Television family on Flickr by Paul Townsend • Computer Room on Flickr by Alex Muse • Books by me • Andreessen official photo from A16z.com • Logos all belong to their respective owners

In 1995 everything changed with the creation of the World Wide Web. Anything that could be digitized was digitized and entire industries changed. And with the digitization came tools to help everyone become a producer of digital content. From music to video, books to journalism, we pulled all the friction out of the content pipeline and democratized entire industries. But the industry we never talk about is the one that was already digital – software. Software was democratized as well. We’ve shared software for as long as we’ve written software. By pulling the friction out of the pipeline around software and sharing it liberally through open source licensing, we’ve ended up in a completely new software industry over the past 20 years. This talk presents the trends that got the industry to where it is, as well as ideas for the coming challenges for the next twenty years of open source software. It might be a cautionary tale.

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