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Whither Abenomics      Akio Fujii  January 30th, 2013
Abenomics• It’ the Economy Stupid!!                  until upper house election・ What is Abenomics?  1. Aggressive Monetar...
Global Response• “Japan Step Out” Paul Krugman• “Right on Monetary Side, but…” Adam  Posen• “The Wrong Growth Strategy for...
Upside Risk• Business and Consumer already feel better.• Virtuous cycle of reflation Asset prices → Sentiment → Real deman...
Downside Risk• Burst of Abenomics Bubble    Disappointment on BOJ. Fiscal Concern.・Yen bounce back・Another political turmo...
Single Biggest Threat“ the single, biggest threat to our nationalsecurity is our debt.” Mike Mullen, chairman ofthe Joint ...
Thank You !!
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Abenomics akio fujii

  1. 1. Whither Abenomics Akio Fujii January 30th, 2013
  2. 2. Abenomics• It’ the Economy Stupid!! until upper house election・ What is Abenomics? 1. Aggressive Monetary Easing 2. Fiscal Stimulus 3. Growth Strategy• Abenomics Bubble? Nikkei Index, Yen Biggest recovery since 2005 Election
  3. 3. Global Response• “Japan Step Out” Paul Krugman• “Right on Monetary Side, but…” Adam Posen• “The Wrong Growth Strategy for Japan” Martin Feldstein・Big3 are nervous・German are nervous Melkel・“We are still in a position where the yen is ahandicap,“ Ghosn
  4. 4. Upside Risk• Business and Consumer already feel better.• Virtuous cycle of reflation Asset prices → Sentiment → Real demand• Strong effect in F 2013 Fiscal Monetary Stimulus and rushing demandbefore the consumption tax hike• Global recovery US and China• Japan-China, Japan-Korea, cooling tension• Strong support for LDB in General Election → No PM Change since 2005
  5. 5. Downside Risk• Burst of Abenomics Bubble Disappointment on BOJ. Fiscal Concern.・Yen bounce back・Another political turmoil・Global slowdown(or recession?)・More tension on Japan-China, Japan-Korea・No structural reform
  6. 6. Single Biggest Threat“ the single, biggest threat to our nationalsecurity is our debt.” Mike Mullen, chairman ofthe Joint Chiefs of Staff→ The single, biggest threat to our nationalsecurity is our deflation?
  7. 7. Thank You !!

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