Primary Energy Demand of Renewable Energy Carriers - Part II

Dr. Andreas Hermelink, Dr. Nesen Sürmeli-Anac
12/06/2014
Primary Energy Demand of
Renewable Energy Carriers
- Part II
Webinar

© ECOFYS | |
Content
> Introduction
> Definitions
> Review of Directives on Primary Energy Factors
> Review on Primary Energy Targets
> Policy Implications of different Primary Energy Factor Definitions
> Conclusions
12/06/2014 Dr. Andreas Hermelink2

© ECOFYS | |
Content
> Introduction
> Definitions
> Conclusions

© ECOFYS | |
Introduction – Renewable and non-renewable
energy sources used for electricity generation
Dr. Andreas Hermelink4 12/06/2014
Non-renewable energy sources Renewable energy sources
Combustibles Non-
combustibles
Combustibles Non-
combustibles
• Hard Coal
• Coal gases
• Lignite
• Peat
• Oil based fuels
• Natural gas
• Waste (fossil
part)
• Nuclear • Biomass (solid,
liquid, gaseous)
• Waste (biogenic
part)
• Hydro (storage,
run-of-river,
tide, wave and
ocean)
• Wind
• Solar
(photovoltaic,
solar thermal)
• Geothermal

© ECOFYS | |
Content
> Introduction
> Definitions

© ECOFYS | | Dr. Andreas Hermelink6 12/06/2014
Nakicenovic (1996) defines primary energy as:
 The energy that is embodied in resources as they exist in nature: the
chemical energy embodied in fossil fuels or biomass, the potential energy of
a water reservoir, the electromagnetic energy of solar radiation and the
energy released in nuclear reactions.
Definitions – Primary Energy
> This will be differentiated in the following.

Calculation of primary energy factor (PEF)
𝑃𝐸𝐹 =
𝐶𝐹 𝑓 𝑥 𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑓, 𝑡
𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑡
CF f = calorific value of a fuel
Input f, t = Input of fuel per operation time
Output t = Output of electricity and/or heat per operation time
> Primary Energy Factors are the quotient of primary energy input to
energy (electricity/heat) output,
i.e. the reciprocal value of the conversion efficiency
This formula works very well for combustibles.
Eq. 1

Accounting Principles Primary Energy for electricity
and heat generation from non-combustibles
No. Option Type of
primary
energy
1 The PEF for electricity or heat from non-combustible renewables
(hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) is accounted as zero by definition.
Not applicable
2 Primary energy equivalents are used to calculate the primary
energy of non-combustible energies (renewable energies excl.
biomass) and the special case of nuclear energy.
Accounting for
(total) primary
energy
3 The PEF for electricity or heat from renewables only accounts the
fossil primary energy that was necessary to produce construction
materials for the infrastructure including fuels for transport and
auxiliary materials during operation. For electricity from nuclear
energy, the consumed fuel is also accounted as nonrenewable
primary energy using a technical conversion efficiency or a primary
energy equivalent.
Accounting for
non-renewable
primary energy
ONLY
4 The PEF is split up into fossil primary energy (e.g. infrastructure,
conversion of nuclear energy) and renewable primary energy using
primary energy equivalents or efficiencies for the conversion of
renewable energy sources into electricity or heat.
Accounting for
non-renewable
AND renewable
primary energy.

Methods to calculate primary energy equivalents or
conversion efficiencies
> Zero equivalent method
> Direct equivalent method
> Physical energy content method
> Substitution method
> Technical conversion efficiencies

Methods to determine the primary energy factors for
electricity generation from different energy sources - 1

Impact of different methods on countries PEF for grid mix - 1

Impact of different methods on countries PEF for grid mix - 2

© ECOFYS | |
Content
> Introduction
> Definitions
> Conclusions

Review of Directives on Primary Energy Factors
Energy Efficiency
Directive
Energy Performance
of Buildings Directive
Renewable Energy
Directive

Energy Efficiency
Directive
Energy Performance
Renewable Energy
Directive

PEF in the Energy Efficiency Directive
Energy Efficiency
Directive
> Minus 20% between 2005-2020
> Article 7 of the EED states:
– “the amount of energy savings required or to be achieved by the
policy measure are expressed in either final or primary energy
consumption, using the conversion factors set out in Annex IV;”
> Annex IV, footnote 3 to the conversion table, states:
– “For savings in kWh electricity Member States may apply a default
coefficient of 2.5. Member States may apply a different coefficient
provided they can justify it.”
> No differentiation between PEF for renewables and non-renewables

Energy Efficiency
Directive
Energy Performance
Renewable Energy
Directive

PEF in the Renewable Energy Directive
> Mandatory requirements on EU member states:
– EU shall obtain 20% of total final energy consumption from
renewable sources by 2020 (Targets of member states vary)
> The RED states:
– „It is necessary to set transparent and unabiguous rules for
calculating the share of energy from renewable sources and for
defining those sources“
> Proposed approach:
– Calculation of Primary Energy Factors based on EUROSTAT
> No differentiation between PEF for renewables and non-renewables
Renewable Energy
Directive

Energy Efficiency
Directive
Energy Performance
Renewable Energy
Directive

PEF in the Energy Performance Buildings Directive
> Annex 1 of EPBD - Common general framework for the calculation of
energy performance of buildings, states:
– “The energy performance of a building shall be expressed in a
transparent manner and shall include an energy performance
indicator and a numeric indicator of primary energy use, based on
primary energy factors per energy carrier, which may be based
on national or regional annual weighted averages or a specific
value for on- site production. The methodology for calculating the
energy performance of buildings should take into account
European standards and shall be consistent with relevant Union
legislation, including Directive 2009/28/EC.”
Energy Performance

PEF in EN 15603
European standard EN 15603 Energy Performance of Buildings – Overall
energy use and definition of energy ratings
> “National annexes may be added to this standard, giving tables of
values representing local conditions for electricity generation and fuel
supply. Such tables shall give values for primary energy factors or
non-renewable primary energy factors, depending on which are to be
used at national level.”
Two Conventions
Total PEF
Non-renewable PEF

Calculation of total primary energy demand in
EN15603
Where
Ep = the primary energy demand
Edel, i= final energy demand of energy carrier (i)
fP,del,i = primary energy factor for demand energy carrier (i)
Eexp,I = exported final energy of energy carrier (i)
fP,exp,i = primary energy factor for export energy carrier (i)
𝐸 𝑝= 𝐸 𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑖 𝑓𝑃,𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑖) − 𝐸𝑒𝑥𝑝,𝑖 𝑓𝑃,𝑒𝑥𝑝,𝑖)
> Primary energy factors for demand and export can be the same
> Currently EN 15603 is under revision
Eq. 2

© ECOFYS | |
Content
> Introduction
> Definitions
> Conclusions

PE targets in EU communications 1
> “Energy Efficiency: delivering 20% target” (COM(2008) 772 final)
> 20% energy saving target relative to a fixed base line projection
mainly by increased end-use energy efficiency and also by improved
conversion efficiency
> 20% target should lead to 400 Mtoe less total primary energy
demand (2012 update: 368 Mtoe through EED)
:
Action plan for Energy Efficiency (COM(2006) 545final)
2011 Energy
Efficiency Plan
EU is not on track for reaching 20% saving targets
 only half of 20% target will be achieved

PE targets in EU communications 2
> Electricity will have an increased importance and a high share in final
energy demand
– 36-39% in 2050
Energy Roadmap 2050 (COM(2011) 885 final)
Very sigificant
Final energy savings
Decrease of primary
energy use:
16 – 20% in 20301
1Compared to 2005

PE statistics: Methods for estimating primary energy
Options defined
under this
method
Calculation
method
Comments Organizations
Option 1
Zero
equivalency
method
very limited use in practice
Sub-Option 2a
Direct
equivalent
method
A fixed standard value
with no distinction
between heat and
electricity
UN statistics and IPCC reports
Sub-Option 2b
Physical
energy
content
method
Based on technical
conversion efficiency
International Energy Agency
(IEA), Eurostat, OECD
Sub-Option 2c
Substitution
method
Compared to primary
energy requirement of
reference technology
US Energy Information
Administration (EIA)
Option 3, Option 4 LCA method
Standardised method
that also takes into
consideration the
complete supply chain
and clearly makes a
difference between
renewable and non-
renewable shares
Not used in energy statistics
so far

© ECOFYS | |
Content
> Introduction
> Definitions
> Conclusions

Policy implications of different Primary Energy Factor
definitions
Energy Efficiency
Directive
Energy Performance
Renewable Energy
Directive
Impact on…

definitions
Energy Efficiency
Directive
Energy Performance
Renewable Energy
Directive
Impact on…

definitions
Energy Efficiency
DirectiveImpact on…
Example:
> Country without nuclear energy:  10% final electricity savings
– 50% fossil, 50% renewable (equal share amongst different
renewables)
Note:
> Calculation methods apply PEF of 2.5 for electricity from fossils but
different PEF for each renewable source
> Aggregate of non-renewable and renewable in 4a & 4b is intentional

Share of different energy sources in total primary
energy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Option 2a-Direct
equivalent
Option 2b-Physical
Energy Content
Option 2c-
Substitution
method
Option 3-Only non-
renewable primary
energy
Option 4a-LCA-
Technical
Conversion
Efficiencies
Option 4b-LCA-
Physical Energy
Content
RelativeShareofSourcesin
TotalPrimaryEnergy
Hydro (storage power station) Hydro (run-of-river power station)
Wind Solar photovoltaic
Solar thermal Geothermal
Biomass (solid biomass fired power plant) Biomass (biogas fired gas turbine)
Conventional electricity
Figure 1

Insights 1
> As long as reduction of electricity consumption is evenly distributed
to all energy sources:
10% reduction
For each energy source
10% reduction of
electricity use
10% reduction of
total primary energy
> “From which source should we reduce supply most for maximum
relative primary energy savings?”
– In all options that feature a relative share of renewables in the
total PEF of more than 50%
– It seems to be more attractive – only aiming at maximum primary
energy reduction – to switch off renewable power plants rather
than fossil power plants
 switching off renewable power plants would lead to primary
energy savings of more than 10%
– Applies to options 2b & 2c but especially for options 4a & 4b

Insights 2
> If hypothetically all fossil power stations are switched off in option
4a:
100% reduction
Greenhouse gas emissions
50% reduction of
electricity supply
only 33% reduction of
total primary energy use
> Therefore in 4a it may seem to be more attractive to switch off all
renewable power stations:
– This seems to lead to approx.:
0% reduction
Greenhouse gas emissions
50% reduction of
electricity supply
67% reduction of
total primary energy use

Insights 3
> Reflect on the adequate application of the different methods to avoid
unintended and misleading results
> “Primary energy only” focus may lead to conclusions or decisions that
clearly contradict climate targets, which aim at maximum reduction
of greenhouse gas emissions rather than of primary energy use

The role of renewable energy in energy statistics
> Energy Statistics
– typically a PEF of 2.5 is used
– If a smaller primary energy factor is used in energy statistics for
renewable energy sources (e.g. option 2b uses 1 for hydro, solar
PV and wind)
 increased relative share of renewable energy sources will lead
to primary energy savings without any final energy savings
 INDIRECT savings
– “replacing 1 unit of fossil electricity (=2.5 units of primary
energy) by 1 unit of wind, hydro and solar electricity (=1 unit
primary energy) leads to 1.5 units of primary energy savings”
(Harmsen et al. (2011))

Impact on Indirect total primary energy use
> Changes in total primary energy use that don’t directly follow from
actual reduction of electricity use but only from replacing fossil fuel
by another energy carrier:
-20
-15
-10
-05
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
Option 2a-Direct
equivalent
Option 2b-Physical
Energy Content
Option 2c-
Substitution
method
Option 3-Only non-
renewable primary
energy
Option 4a-LCA-
Technical
Conversion
Efficiencies
Option 4b-LCA-
Physical Energy
Content
IndirectChangeofTotalPrimaryEnergy
bySubstitutingFossilGeneration
byAnotherSource
Biomass (solid biomass fired power plant) Biomass (biogas fired gas turbine)
Waste Nuclear
Figure 2

Interpretation
> Ten different energy carriers:
– If 10 units of electricity from fossil power plants would be replaced
by one unit of electricity from each of those 10 alternative power
plants the net change in the total primary energy balance would be
the positive part in each option minus the corresponding negative
part
– Option 2a: Total primary energy would decrease by approx. 5 units
– Option 4a: Total primary energy would increase by approx. 15 units
– RE sources that remain competitive against fossil electricity (seem
to) vary within each calculation method
– Larger PEFs for renewable energy (especially values > 2.5) will risk
to hamper RE development
 Especially for biomass, geothermal and solar thermal and waste
energy options

definitions
Energy Efficiency
Directive
Energy Performance
Renewable Energy
Directive
Impact on…

Impact on the Renewable Energy Directive
> Directive sets binding targets for percentage of renewable energy in
2020
> Method of calculation and choice of PEFs have potentially large impact
on calculation of share of renewable energy and consequently on
energy
Example:
> Hypothetical situation:
– Total gross inland consumption of 100 units of final energy from
fossil fuels
– 10 units of renewable energy from each renewable energy source
– Excluding waste and nuclear
– Option 3 was left out: only shows non-renewable primary energy
Impact on…
Renewable Energy
Directive

Calculation of renewable share in RED
Where
%RES(i) =Share of Renewable energy source (i)
PEFRES(i) = Primary energy factor for renewable energy source (i)
ERES(i) = Final energy demand from renewable energy source (i)
PEFFF = Primary energy factor for fossil fuel (2.5)
EFF = Final energy demand from fossil fuel
%𝑅𝐸𝑆 𝑖 = (𝑃𝐸𝐹 𝑅𝐸𝑆 𝑖 𝐸 𝑅𝐸𝑆 𝑖 )/ 𝑃𝐸𝐹𝑅𝐸𝑆 𝐸 𝑅𝐸𝑆 + 𝑃𝐸𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝐸 𝐹𝐹
Eq. 3

Percentage of total renewable energy demonstrated
for hypothetical case
> Different methods can create the illusion of very different
achievement levels of renewable energy targets
Option 2a-
Direct
equivalent
method
Option 2b-
Physical
Energy
Content
Option 2c-
Substitution
method
Option 4a-
LCA-Technical
Conversion
Efficiencies
Option 4b-
LCA-Physical
Energy
Content
30% 42% 40% 55% 49%
Table 6

Contribution of energy sources to renewable energy
share for the hypothetical power system
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Option 2a-Direct equivalent Option 2b-Physical energy
content
Option 2c-Substitution
method
Option 4a-LCA-Technical
Conversion Efficiencies
Option 4b-LCA-Physical
Energy Content
PercentageofRenewableEnergy
Biomass (solid biomass fired power plant) Biomass (biogas fired gas turbine) Figure 3

definitions
Energy Efficiency
Directive
Energy Performance
Renewable Energy
Directive
Impact on…

Impact on the Energy Performance of Buildings
Directive 1
> The EPBD defines a nearly Zero-Energy Building as follows:
– [A nearly Zero-Energy Building is a] “building that has a very high
energy performance… [ ]. The nearly zero or very low amount of
energy required should to a very significant extent be covered by
energy from renewable sources, including renewable energy
produced on-site or nearby.”
> Imported AND exported energy need to be considered!
> Extremely important: Renewable energy applications need to be
considered accurately in the national calculation methods or
requirements!
Impact on…
Energy Performance

Calculation of total primary energy demand in
EN15603
Where
Ep = the primary energy demand
Edel, i= final energy demand of energy carrier (i)
fP,del,i = primary energy factor for demand energy carrier (i)
Eexp,I = exported final energy of energy carrier (i)
fP,exp,i = primary energy factor for export energy carrier (i)
𝐸 𝑝= 𝐸 𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑖 𝑓𝑃,𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑖) − 𝐸𝑒𝑥𝑝,𝑖 𝑓𝑃,𝑒𝑥𝑝,𝑖)
> Primary energy factors for demand and export can be the same
> Currently EN 15603 is under revision
Eq. 2

Directive – Imported electricity
> Electricity consumption will contribute less primary energy to overall
energy performance indicator of a building resulting in increasing
competitive advantage for electric heating over oil and gas
> Plausible in case of PEF accounting options 2a, 2b, and 4b.
> Option 2c will not work towards lowering the total PEF for electricity as
it assigns equal PEFs to renewables and conventional resources
> For countries with high RE share, the total decrease of PEF for
electricity may not be reached due to high PEFs provided in option 4a
for renewable energy sources
> High PEFs may hamper the development of grid-coupled renewable
energy in the long run
> Depending on the PEF calculation method used people may use
different fuel mixes for minimising their building’s primary energy
balance

Directive – Exported electricity (on-site/nearby)
> PEFs assigned to renewable energy will have a direct influence on
calculating the total primary energy
> For low-energy buildings and nZEBs the aim is to maximise this
amount to lower the total primary energy consumption.
 option 2c and option 4a will be most beneficial, due to high PEFs
for electricity produced on-site or nearby, especially if it comes
from PV or wind energy
> Dual effect on electricity delivered to the building and electricity
produced on-site or nearby simultaneously

Summary on Directives
Energy Efficiency
Directive
> Total primary energy use as indicator for the
end-use energy efficiency problematic
> Apparent improvements of energy efficiency
without reduction of the final energy use
Improvement of the
end–use energy efficiency

Renewable Energy
Directive
without reduction of the finale energy use
> Depending on the accounting method very
different shares of renewable energy will
be demonstrated
> “virtual” improvements could be achieved
Improvement of the
Improvement of the
share of renewable energy
Energy Efficiency
Directive

Energy Performance
without reduction of the finale energy use
> Depending on the accounting method very
different shares of renewable energy will
be demonstrated
> “virtual” improvements could be achieved
> primary energy use as main indicator
> Methodology effects the calculated energy
performance and the chosen fuel mix and
share of renewables in buildings
Improvement of the
Improvement of the
share of renewable energy
Improvement of the
energy efficiency of buildings
Renewable Energy
Directive
Energy Efficiency
Directive

Issues with PEF of 2.5
> Lack of unambiguous scientific values
– Conversion factor of 2.5 introduced December 2003
– Based on Eurostat figures from 2001 or older
– Strong need for an update
> Lack of consistency
– Member States are free to choose PEFs
– Considerable space for Member States to deviate from the
suggested values
> Lack of transparency
– PEFs are not commonly based entirely on scientific arguments
and clear algorithms
– PEF for electricity should be regularly revised
– Method of calculation clearly documented and eventually
harmonized

Final conclusions - 1
> Member States should use the same or a very similar
methodology for determining PEFs
> Prevent abuse of methods to promote energy sources
> Methodology needs to be transparent and should be based on
available data
> Solid, scientifically based determination of primary energy
factors for all types of power supply must be available and
commonly applied
> Methods used for determining PEFs for energy from renewable
sources must be in line with climate policy targets

Final conclusions - 2
> Changes in the power system which lead to reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions generally should always lead to
reductions in primary energy use (=> problematic, when total
PEF is used)
> PEFs should be determined and applied in a way that enables to
clearly differentiate between
– direct primary energy savings (actual final energy savings)
– indirect primary energy savings (changes in the energy mix)
> Renewable energy sources should be treated equally relative to
their effect on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the
calculated share of renewables in an energy mix
> It does not seem helpful for achieving a well-balanced mix of
different renewable sources when one zero-emission source is
outpaced by another zero-emission source by assigning very
different PEFs

© ECOFYS | |
Please contact us for more information
Dr. Andreas Hermelink
Ecofys Germany GmbH
Am Karlsbad 11
10785 Berlin
Germany
T: +49 30 297 735 79-50
E: a.hermelink@ecofys.com
I: www.ecofys.com

Primary Energy Demand of Renewable Energy Carriers - Part II

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Primary Energy Demand of Renewable Energy Carriers - Part II

Notes de l'éditeur