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Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU (update)

(This is an updated version of the slides used during the 11th webinar in the Odyssee-Mure on Energy Efficiency Academy at 08 Dec 2020. This version addresses pending questions with some more details and references.)

What has been the overall trend in final energy consumption of buildings in the EU since 2010?
What are the main drivers of the energy consumption variation, and in particular energy savings, for residential and service buildings?

These are the key questions answered during this (11th) webinar in the Odyssee-Mure on Energy Efficiency Academy.

Highlights from their research:
➢The energy consumption of buildings has steadily decreased since 2010 despite GDP growth.
➢There are large disparities in building performances across countries.
➢Since 2015, the rate of household energy efficiency improvements has dropped by 50% (compared to 2000-2014).
➢Energy efficiency of large electrical appliances, which has largely improved in the past, does not counterbalance anymore the rapid growth of the consumption of small appliances.

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Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU (update)

  1. 1. Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU December 8th, 2020 Marie Rousselot, Bruno Lapillonne, Enerdata with Frédéric Pinto da Rocha, Enerdata Odyssee-Mure webinar series on Energy Efficiency organised by Leonardo ENERGY
  2. 2. About ▪ This webinar is organized in the framework of the ODYSSEE MURE project, that is supported by the H2020 programme of the European Commission. The project is coordinated by ADEME, with the support of Enerdata and Fraunhofer-ISI. www.odyssee-mure.eu ▪ The webinar relies on data and energy efficiency indicators prepared in the framework of the project and disseminated in a database, called ODYSSEE, and in 5 data tools. ▪ ODYSSEE covers 31 countries*. It is updated up to 2018 from national sources and completed with early estimates for 2019**. ▪ The consumption data correspond to the final energy or delivered energy. 2 *28 EU Member States (UK included)+ Norway, Serbia and Switzerland ** see methodology at https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publications/other/early- estimates-methodology.html
  3. 3. Outline ▪ Introduction ▪ Energy consumption trends ▪ Energy efficiency trends ▪ Conclusion 3Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020
  4. 4. Introduction Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020
  5. 5. Introduction • Why is the building sector so relevant? o In 2018, buildings account for: - 43% of the final energy consumption and 60% of the electricity consumption in the EU-28 - about 40% of the EU’s CO2 emissions related to energy consumption o The European Commission states that “currently, ~75% of the building stock is energy inefficient yet almost 85-95% of today’s buildings will still be in use in 2050.”* ➔ There is a specific need of ambitious policies and measures (PAMs) focusing on buildings to: ➔ meet the targets set out for 2030 ➔ making Europe climate neutral by 2050. 5Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 * https://ec.europa.eu/energy/topics/energy-efficiency/energy-efficient-buildings/renovation-wave_en
  6. 6. Introduction Policies and measures (PAMs) designed at the European level (EPDB, renovation wave, …) are declined at the country level (for ex. long term renovation strategies, NECPs…). The monitoring of these PAMs using appropriate indicators is an essential success factor. 6Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 Such indicators help monitoring the impacts of PAMS at the EU or national level. They may highlight the need to review the way PAMs have been designed or their level of ambition. In this presentation, we will present such indicators (Odyssee database) showing trends of energy consumption and energy efficiency. Decomposition analysis will be presented to explore the observed variations of energy consumption in buildings over the last two decades.
  7. 7. Energy consumption trends Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020
  8. 8. Energy consumption : overview 8Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 In most European countries, buildings absorb the largest share of consumption sector (43% at EU level). Their consumption is stable since 2014 while GDP has risen by ~1.5%/year (2014-2019). This follows a decline of consumption after the financial crisis (-1.5 %/year from 2008-2014). Two thirds of the buildings consumption are for residential buildings. At the EU level, the share of services has grown from 29% in 2000 to 33% in 2008 and is rather stable since then. 0 5 10 15 20 0 100 200 300 400 500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GEUR2010 Mtoe Total consumption of buildings and GDP Services Residential GDP at constant prices 2019 : early estimates
  9. 9. Energy consumption trends in the residential sector Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 9
  10. 10. Energy consumption trends in the residential sector 10 Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 In 2018, the average energy consumption in the EU is 1.3 toe/dwelling. There are large disparities among countries, even after adjustment to the same climate, ranging from 0.9 toe/dw in Portugal to 2.5 times more in Luxembourg (2.5 toe/dw). This unit consumption is decreasing in all countries since 2000 (-1.1%/year on the EU scale), except in Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary and Italy. 0 1 2 3 4 Portugal Bulgaria Lithuania Romania Spain Estonia Slovakia Sweden Finland Latvia EU UK Netherla… Poland Slovenia Germany Greece Austria Denmark Czechia France Ireland Hungary Croatia Italy Belgium Luxemb… toe/dwelling Energy consumption per dwelling, scaled to EU average climate 2000 2018
  11. 11. Energy consumption trends in the residential sector 11Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 Between 2000-2019, declining trends are observed for space heating, the dominant end-use with 66% of the households consumption and cooking (only 5% of the total) (-0,5/%year and -0.3%/year respectively). Over the same period, growing trends are observed for appliances and lighting (1%/year) and water heating (0.2%/year). In 2019, appliances and lighting have overcome water heating. These end-uses now account for 15% and 14% of the households consumption, respectively. 2019 : early estimates 71% 66% 13% 14% 5% 5,1% 2% 1,6% 8% 13% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2019 Mtoe Household energy consumption by end-use in the EU Electrical appliances Lighting Cooling Cooking Water heating Space heating
  12. 12. Trends of electricity consumption in the residential sector 12Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 In 2019, 87% of the electricity used for captive uses (i.e. outside thermal uses) is for electrical appliances : since 2008, consumption of large appliances has decreased (-1%/year), while it has progressed rapidly for small appliances (3%/year). Electricity consumption for lighting is declining (-2%/year since 2008). It now represents 11% of the households captive electricity consumption. Cooling still represents a low share (2%) but shows an important growth of 7%/year since 2000 (~10%/year in EU Mediterranean countries). 2019 : early estimates * others ** TV, refrigerator, freezer, washing machine, dishwasher, dryer 1% 1% 2% 16% 14% 11% 54% 48% 40% 29% 37% 47% 0 10 20 30 40 50 2000 2008 2019 Households captive electricity consumption by end-use in the EU Small electrical appliances* Large electrical appliances** Lighting Cooling
  13. 13. Specific consumption of households for electrical appliances 13Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 The specific consumption of large electrical appliances* has decreased rapidly since 2008 (-1.8%/year). The specific consumption of small appliances has increased rapidly, even if this growth has been almost halved between 2000-2008 (4%/year) and 2008-2018 (2.5%/year). 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 Total Large appliances Small appliances kWh/dwelling Specific consumption of electrical appliances 2000 2008 2018 Large appliance: TV, refrigerator, freezer, washing machine, dishwasher, dryer Small appliances include all others :PC, coffee machine, video etc…
  14. 14. Energy consumption trends in services Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 14
  15. 15. 15Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 In 2019, the energy consumption in services was 20% higher than in 2000 despite a decrease after the economic crisis. It reached a peak of 155 Mtoe in 2008 after a rapid increase (2.5%/year). It decreased between 2008 and 2014 and remained almost stable afterwards. Similarly, electricity consumption increased rapidly until 2008 (3.2%/an). It is almost stable since then. -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 2000-2008 2008-2019 2000-2019 %/year Trends in energy consumption and value added in services Value added Total consumption (climate corrected) Electricity consumption (climate corrected) Energy consumption trends in services 2019 : early estimates
  16. 16. Energy consumption trends in services 16Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 Electricity represents almost half of the total energy consumption of services. Offices and wholesale and trade sector consume around 2/3 of electricity in services* at EU level. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total electricity consumption by branch (2018) Education Health Hotels, restaurants Wholesale Offices *Services include private and public buildings (offices, shops, schools, hospitals) as well as public lighting.
  17. 17. Energy consumption trends in services 17Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total energy consumption by end-use (2018) Lighting Air cooling Cooking Water heating Space heating (climatic corrected) Space heating represents the largest part of the energy consumption in 6 countries out of 7 for which data are available (between 47% in Spain and 68% in Sweden) In Portugal, the largest energy consumption is for lighting (45%).
  18. 18. Energy efficiency trends Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020
  19. 19. Specific energy consumption for households space heating 19Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Malta Portugal* Cyprus Spain Bulgaria Greece Netherlands Denmark Sweden UK* Ireland EU28 Italy France Lithuania Germany Denmark Finland Slovenia Austria Croatia Romania Estonia Poland Hungary CzechRep. Luxembou… Latvia kWh/m² Households space heating consumption per m² (climate corrected)* 2000 2018 The specific consumption of households for heating has decreased in almost all countries since 2000 (-1.8%/year on average in the EU). The reduction was above 3%/year in 3 countries (Latvia, Romania and Portugal) and between 2 and 3%/year in 6 others (Ireland, UK, Nethrlands, Sweden, Slovakia and Germany) • Climate corrections see methodology at https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/faq/result/1/ • 2002 for UK, 2003 for Portugal; no data before 2008 for Luxembourg and 2016 for Malta. No data on m2 available for Belgium
  20. 20. 20 Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 Energy efficiency trends: large households appliances 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 1990=100 Specific energy consumption of large appliances (EU average) Refrigerators Freezers Washing machines Dishwashers Dryers ▪ The specific consumption of large appliances (measured in kWh per appliance) has decreased steadily since 1990 by the labelling and eco- design regulations. ▪ Efficiency gains are above 40% (i.e. 2%/year) for cold appliances (refrigerators and freezers), washing machines and dish washers; for dryers, gains are lower, around 35%. Source ODYSSEE, based on national data
  21. 21. 21 How is measured energy efficiency progress in ODYSSEE? • Various energy efficiency indicators of specific consumption measured in physical unit are calculated for buildings: • by end–use for households • by sub-sector for services. • For households, we obtain different trends for the EU: 2%/year for refrigerators, 1.8%/year for heating, 0.5%/year for water heating etc…. • The question is how to measure the overall energy efficiency progress at sector level? • This is the objective of the energy efficiency index, called “ODEX”, that is calculated separately for households and services in ODYSSEE. Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020
  22. 22. How is calculated ODEX? • ODEX is calculated: o First, by expressing trends in specific energy consumption by end-use (or sub-sector), as an index of variation ; o Then by calculating an average index for the sector weighted by the share of each end-use (or sub-sector) in the sector’s energy consumption. • ODEX is presently calculated on the basis of 11 end-uses* or appliances for households and 6 branches in services. • As for each end-use, index of variation are used, specific consumption can be expressed in different physical units so as to be as close as possible to energy efficiency (e.g. for household: toe/m2 for heating, toe/household for water heating and cooking, kWh/dwelling for lighting, kWh/appliance for appliances and cooling. 22 *Heating (separation new/existing dwellings), water heating, cooking, cooling, lighting, refrigerator, freezer, washing machine, dishwasher, dryer, TV. For more information on ODEX: https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publications/archives/odex-indicators- database-definition.html Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020
  23. 23. Energy efficiency trends for households ▪ ODEX equal 71 in 2019 ➔ households energy efficiency has improved by 29% at EU level between 2000 and 2019 (or 1.8%/year). ▪ However, there has been a significant slowdown since 2014, with progress twice lower, mainly because of space heating, the largest end-use, and also for water heating and cooking, whereas for large appliances and lighting there is an intensification . • Only main end-uses shown 23Source: ODYSSEE 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Energy efficiency trends for households at EU level based on ODEX Total Heating Water heating Cooking Large electrical appliances Lighting Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 2019 : early estimates
  24. 24. What is happening since 2014? (1/2) 24 Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 For space heating, the reduction of the unit consumption per m2 has significantly slowed down since 2014 in most of the largest EU countries, especially in Germany, France, UK and The Netherlands. Several factors may explain this trend: • Less new construction, that have very high energy efficiency performance: the rate of construction has decreased by 35% since the financial crisis and only represents every year 0.8% of the existing stock of dwellings (i.e. only 8% of new stock after 10 years); • Less renovation although it is difficult to have consolidated data. • Slower diffusion of efficient heating mode (condensing boiler, heat pumps)**. -4,0% -3,0% -2,0% -1,0% 0,0% 1,0% 2000-2014 2014-2018 Unit consumption per m2 for space heating for largest consumers* ,* Countries representing 80% of the EU heating consumption of households (50% for the 4 largest). ** Penetration of efficient heating modes at https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/market-diffusion.html
  25. 25. What is happening since 2014? (2/2) 25Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 ▪ For water heating, the unit consumption reduction has significantly slowed down in 3 large countries (France, Italy, Spain) and has even reversed (i.e. increased) in 3 countries (Austria, Belgium, Romania). ▪ For cooking the rate of improvement has been divided by 3 since 2014, with an increase in re unit consumption in Germany, Italy, Poland and Czech Rep. ▪ Are these changes linked to behaviors? We are lacking information to monitor such trends
  26. 26. ▪ Since 2000, buildings have registered larger gains than transport or industry. ▪ Energy efficiency improvements in services are mainly significant since 2014 (1.3%/year for services), and are even faster than for households (1.1 %/year for since 2014) ▪ Such trends since 2014 can be compared with industry (0.9%/year) and transport (0.4%/year). Energy efficiency in buildings compared to other sectors 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Energy efficiency improvements for final consumers (EU) based on ODEX Industry Transport Households Services Total Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 2019 : early estimates
  27. 27. 27 ▪ Annual additional energy savings are then calculated from the annual variation of ODEX indicator.* ▪ Because of the slowing pace of energy efficiency improvement, the annual additional savings have been decreasing by around 30% since 2014: from an average volume of 7.4 Mtoe/year over 2000-2013 to 5.3 Mtoe/year since 2014. Decrease of energy savings in buildings since 2014 Average annual additional savings by sector (Mtoe) 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 2000-2013 2014-2019 Services Households Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 *ODEX is the ratio between the energy consumption and a fictive consumption that would have happened without energy savings (ES): ODEX = E/(E+ES)*100 and ES = E x ((100/EEDEX)-1
  28. 28. In buildings, the cumulated annual energy savings since 2000 reached 130 Mtoe in 2019, which represents the equivalent of 29% of final energy consumption in 2019. Without these savings the energy consumption of buildings would have been 29% higher. Households, the sector with the highest number of regulations and financial measures, is over represented, with a share of total savings (41%) much higher than its share in consumption (28%). 28 Energy savings vs. consumption Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 2019 : early estimates 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mtoe Cumulated energy savings Industry Transport Households Services Industry 28% Transport 21% Households 41% Services 10% % of energy savings (2019) Industry 27% Transport 31% Households 28% Services 14% % of energy consumption (2019)
  29. 29. Conclusion Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020
  30. 30. 30 Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 Buildings’ consumption variation 2000-2019 • For households, the consumption decreased by 15 Mtoe: the increase in the dwelling stock (more dwellings) and lifestyles (more appliances per dwelling, larger homes) contributed to raise the consumption by 87 Mtoe. Energy savings offset more than this increase by reducing consumption by 105 Mtoe. Source: ODYSSEE Decomposition tool: https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html 2019 : early estimates • For services, the consumption increased by 13.6 Mtoe: the activity contributed to raise the consumption by 48 Mtoe. Energy savings only decreased consumption by 25 Mtoe, and productivity by 26 Mtoe. -110 -90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 2000-2019 Mtoe Drivers of energy consumption for households (EU) Consumption variation Climate More dwellings More appliances per dwelling Larger homes Energy savings Other -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2000-2019 Mtoe Drivers of energy consumption in services (EU) Consumption variation Climate Activity Energy savings Productivity Other
  31. 31. 31 Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 Buildings’ consumption variation 2014-2019 Source: ODYSSEE Decomposition tool: https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html 2019 : early estimates • Since 2014, the consumption of households decreased by 28 Mtoe. The increase in the dwelling stock and lifestyles contributed to raise the consumption by 15 Mtoe. Energy savings offset more than this increase by reducing consumption by 23 Mtoe. The warmer climate in 2019 reduced consumption by 17 Mtoe . • For services, the activity contributed to raise the consumption by 18 Mtoe. Energy savings and productivity gains offset this increase by reducing consumption by 24 Mtoe. -20 -10 0 10 20 2014-2019Mtoe Drivers of energy consumption in services (EU) Consumption variation Climate Activity Energy savings Productivity Other -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 2014-2019 Mtoe Drivers of energy consumption for households (EU) Consumption variation Climate More dwellings More appliances per dwelling Larger homes Energy savings Other
  32. 32. 32Energy efficiency trends in buildings in the EU – December 8th, 2020 Conclusion : Key messages • The energy consumption of buildings has steadily decreased since 2010 despite GDP growth. • Household energy efficiency improvements have been twice slower since 2014 than before slowing down. • This is mainly explained by thermal uses and in particular space heating, due to a combination of factors (lower new construction, and renovation, behaviour…), that are difficult to grasp due to a lack of information. • The energy efficiency of large electrical appliances continues to improve rapidly; however this effect does not counterbalance anymore the rapid growth of the consumption of small appliances.
  33. 33. www.enerdata.net Thank you for your attention ! Contact: About Enerdata: Enerdata is an energy intelligence and consulting company established in 1991. Our experts will help you tackle key energy and climate issues and make sound strategic and business decisions. We provide research, solutions, consulting and training to key energy players worldwide. Bruno Lapillonne, Scientific director bruno.lapillonne@enerdata.net Marie Rousselot, Project Manager Marie.rousselot@enerdata.net 33Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020

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