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Photovoltaic market and industry trends 2019

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Webinar recording at https://youtu.be/Ph9AW2PEgBg

This webinar addresses the key drivers of the PV market and industry in the coming years based on the Trends 2019. Gaëtan Masson, Operating Agent of IEA PVPS Task 1, will look at the past developments and future scenarios, from a global market development point of view to some key price evolution features. From social aspects of PV, collective and decentralised self-consumption policies to floating PV, this webinar will browse the global landscape of PV development. Izumi Kaizuka, deputy chair of the IEA PVPS Task 1, will present the trends of the PV Industry. The production of polysilicon, ingots, wafers, PV cells and modules have been growing with the growth of the PV market. The gap between manufacturing capacity of PV module and the demand contributed to the recent price reduction thus resulted in lower LCOE of PV power. Across the value chain, the PV upstream sector makes efforts to improve efficiency, output and reliability. Further progress of cost reduction is expected. In the downstream sector, players are also applying various methods to reduce LCOE.

Publié dans : Technologie
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Photovoltaic market and industry trends 2019

  1. 1. Trends in PV Applications 2019 Gaëtan Masson, IEA PVPS Task 1 Operating Agent, Becquerel Institute Leonardo Energy Webinar – 4th December 2019 INSERT A PICTURE THIS SIZE OR LEAVE BLANK
  2. 2. PVPS 2 What is IEA PVPS? • The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) is one of the Technology Collaboration Programmes established within the International Energy Agency • Established in 1993 • 32 members - 27 countries, European Commission, 4 associations • “To enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems” • Active in market and industry research, sustainability, reliability, grid integration, BIPV, solar resource, VIPV and off-grid applications. • Task 1 is the task devoted to market, policies and industry analysis and the think tank of IEA- PVPS.
  3. 3. PVPS 3 Total installed capacity rising above 512 GW
  4. 4. PVPS 4 A stable PV market in 2018 and growing in 2019 ?
  5. 5. PVPS 5 Countries and regions shaping the PV global market • The decline of the chinese PV market in 2018 led to market stabilization but the rest of the market grew significantly. • 2019 will look similar with growth outside of China compensating the decline in China. • 2020 and beyond should see the market growing again rapidly, driven by utility-scale PV applications mostly.
  6. 6. PVPS 6 Still 10-15 countries making the global PV market • Having one of two key markets has been the features of the global PV market for 12 years at least. • The difference between China first and India/USA 2nd and 3rd is a ¼ ratio. • Outside of China, the market is better balanced with India, USA, Europe, Japan well balanced. • One can see this differently: the market is all these regions is still way to low compared to its potential. • New growth regions: Middle-East, Sout- East Asia, North Africa, Latin America and Europe.
  7. 7. PVPS 7 Top 10 entry level is increasing slowly
  8. 8. PVPS 8 From Europe to Asia • Europe fueled PV development in Spain, Germany, Italy and other markets followed (BE, CZ, BG, GR…) • Then Asia took the lead with China, Japan, Thailand and now Australia, Korea, Vietnam and more. • The American markets are following the Asian trend with some delay but remain small compared to the Asian one. • The Middle-East and Africa start to appear
  9. 9. PVPS 9 Decentralized PV is stable in a stable market
  10. 10. PVPS 10 But this is a regional feature
  11. 11. PVPS 11 PV market drivers: still the FiT but for how long? • Drivers = the main incentive or policy driving the PV market, but not the only one. • FiT is still massive used while tenders are gaining ground • What can be the impact for the manufacturers of large market shares with tenders?
  12. 12. PVPS 12 Most competitive tenders Not realistic !
  13. 13. PVPS 13 Normalized tenders value
  14. 14. PVPS 14 Business Value of the PV market and Industry
  15. 15. PVPS 15 Employment
  16. 16. PVPS 16 PV penetration in the electricty demand
  17. 17. PVPS 17 PV in the electricty mix
  18. 18. PVPS 18 CO2 avoided emission; 600 Mtons of CO2eq
  19. 19. iea-pvs.org Thank you for your attention Gaëtan Masson, Task 1 g.masson@iea-pvs.org
  20. 20. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Izumi Kaizuka, Deputy OA, IEA PVPS Task 1/Director, RTS Corporation, Japan PV Industry Trends from IEA PVPS Trends Report 2nd December 2019
  21. 21. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Contents • About RTS Corporation • Industry trends from Trends Report – Upstream sector – Down stream sector and new application • Challenges for TW era 2
  22. 22. Japan World R & D Deployment Business models Silicon feedstock for solar cell PV system PV projects Comprehensive Consulting company on Photovoltaics (PV) RTS Corporation – founded in 1983, 36 year experience Business: Helping establish PV business strategy, “Go to Japanese market ” Clients: Government agencies, utilities, manufacturers (entire value chain of PV) project developers, financial institutes, industry associations, etc. in JP, US, DE, IT, FR, AT, NR, CHE, AUS, CHN, IND, KOR, Taiwan, Thailand, Norway, etc. Go to Japanese Market Consulting for PV projects 3
  23. 23. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME How we conduct analysis • Information in the National Survey Reports from each member country • RTS’s primary survey for non-member/ member countries • Available information and figures from – Industry associations – Pres releases, etc. 4
  24. 24. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Growth of annual PV market CN declines, compensated b global growth.
  25. 25. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Installation, PV module production & capacity Unit (MW) • Effective capacity: less than reported figure • Gap is widening due to Chinese 5.31 policy in 2018 6
  26. 26. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Production share by country Including poly for semiconductors 7
  27. 27. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Chinese market & industry evolution Source: IEA PVPS, CPIA, RTS Corporation 8
  29. 29. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Top 5 cell/ wafer manufactures Ran k Solar cell production (GW) PV module production (GW) PV module shipment (GW) 1 Hanwha Q CELLS 7,4 JinkoSolar 8,6 JinkoSolar 11,4 2 JA Solar 7,0 JA Solar 8,5 JA Solar 8,5 3 Tongwei Solar 6,5 Canadian Solar 8,0 Trina Solar 7,5 4 JinkoSolar 5,8 Hanwha Q CELLS 7,7 Canadian Solar 6,8 5 Canadian Solar 5,7 LONGi Green Energy Technology 7,5 LONGi Green Energy Technology 6,6 Note: Production volumes are manufacturers’ own production, whereas shipment volumes include commissioned production and OEM procurement. Source RTS Corporation (with some estimates) 10
  30. 30. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME 2019 Trends in the upstream sector • Production capacity increase • Higher efficiency & output  Combination of several technologies  Full shift from conventional to PERC cells  Increase of commercial production of HJT  sc-Si increases the share  Bifacial PV module shipment increase • Further cost reduction • Polysilicon and wafer price reduction • Increase of wafer supply • CdTe PV module shipment increases with First Solar S6 • Consolidation continues 11
  31. 31. PV module production capacity by major companies Source: RTS Corporation 12
  32. 32. Production capacity of major players as of Sept 2019 13
  33. 33. 2019 1H Shipment 14 Ran k 2019 1H Shipment (GW) 2018 Shipment (GW) 2017 Shipment(GW) 1 JinkoSolar(China/Malaysia) 6.4 JinkoSolar(China/Malaysia) 11.17 JinkoSolar(China/Malaysia) 9.8 2 JA Solar(China/Malaysia) 5 JA Solar(China/Malaysia) 8.5 Trina Solar (China/Thailand/Vietnam) 9.0 3 Trina Solar (China/Thailand/Vietnam) 4.5 Trina Solar (China/Thailand/Vietnam) 7.54 JA Solar(China) 7.2 4 Canadian Solar (Canada/China/Brazil/Vietnam ) 3.7 Canadian Solar (Canada/China/Brazil/Vietnam ) 6.82 Canadian Solar (Canada/China/Brazil/Vietnam ) 6.8 5 Hanwha Q CELLS (Korea/China/Malaysia) 3.5 LONGi Green Energy Technology (China/Malaysia) 6.58 Hanwha Q CELLS (Korea/China/Malaysia) 5.4 6 LONGi Green Energy Technology(China/Malaysia) 3.19 Hanwha Q CELLS (Korea/China/Malaysia) 5.60 GCL System Integration Technology(GCLSI) (China) 4.8 6 Risen Energy(China) 2.78 GCL System Integration Technology(GCLSI) (China) 4.57 LONGi Green Energy Technology(China) 4.7 8 First Solar 2.2 Risen Energy(China) 3.35 Yingli Green Energy(China) 3.0 8 GCL System Integration Technology(GCLSI) (China) 2.2 Shunfeng International Clean Energy/Suntech Power(China) 3.30 Risen Energy(China) 2.8 10 Zhejiang Chint Electrics(China) 2 Chint Electrics(China) 3.15 First Solar(USA/Malaysia) 2.7 Source:RTS Corporation Including estimates
  34. 34. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Module Trends along the value chain : upstream - Debottlenecking - FBR - Metallurgical process - G7  G8 - HP mc-Si - Continuous pulling sc-Si - Cast mono - Larger wafer - DW for sc-Si &mc-Si - Texture - Thinner sc-Si - Using IoT for optimizing cell process - PERC, PERT, SHJ, IBC - Bifacial - Multi-busbars - Half-cut - Shingles - Lower Ag consumption - Glass-Glass - Non-EVA encupsulants - 1,500V - Bifacial - AR coating - Anti-Soiling - Reliability • Higher efficiency • Larger size • Material/ electrodes • Process • Flexible substrates Lower cost equipment/ process / higher throughput/ location 15
  35. 35. Is bigger is better for monocrystalline Si? 16  Larger wafers has been adopted since 2018  Output increases while weight increase and mechanical stress of PV module (Failures in installation and transportation, impacts on materials are concerned)  Standard of wafers needs agreement of PV manufactures Larger wafer can reduce BOS cost of PV systems and LCOE 166mm x 166 mm is upper limit of the wafer size for standard process lines. Needs mutual recognition among manufacturers VS Image: Zhonghuan Semiconductor “Kwafoo” Conventional Average size of larger mono in China Global average Half Cut cell, HC120pieces PERC PV module 610W Next generation of LONGi’s wafers for 2020 and later Bifacial PV module HC120 355~365W HC144、430~435W
  36. 36. CPVIA outlook of PV module cost 17 sc-Si PERC PV Module 22 US cent/W Poly cost Umit: RMB/W Non-poly wafer Non-poly cell Non-poly module 15 US cent/W Source CPVIA roadmap 2018 (Feb. 2019)
  37. 37. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Downstream trends Technology • BOS Cost reduction with higher efficiency PV modules and bifacial PV modules • Inverter : String vs Centralized, 1500V or more??? • Tracker: Centralized or distributed control? • Repowering – Replacing PV modules/ inverters – Retrofitting AR coatings • Recycling • More cost efficient O&M – AI analysis for failure detection and prescheduled maintenance, etc. New Application Floating PV, AgroPV, BIPV, PV + Storage , PV + EV (VIPV) 18
  38. 38. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Segmentation of grid connected solar PV installations Market segmentation has been dominated by utility-scale PV plants in the last 6 years, with a change coming from China in 2017. Utility scale segment is growing in emerging countries Innovative applications still marginal: Floating <1GW, potential to be 3rd category following ground mounted and rooftop AgriPV is new and growing slow, BIPV < 1 GW VIPV is still in its infancy Market segment and new application Source: IEA PVPS 19
  39. 39. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Floatvoltaics, Floating PV • Market size in 2018: ~ 786MW • FPV is installed/planned in many countries for efficient use of water surface • FPV is common in land limited countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc. • Incentives for FPV: S. Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, etc. • FPV as DG/ self consumption use is emerging – Off-grid solution (Offshore) – Aquaculture • FPV & Hydro for grid stabilization Source: World Bank, Where Sun Meets Water: Floating Solar Market Report Source: RTS Corporation, AECEA 20
  40. 40. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME AgroPV application • Electrification of rural area, sustainable agriculture • Efficient use of farmland – Power sales or land lease fee as additional income source of farmers  food-self sufficiency, poverty eradication • Specific structures for sharing solar energy with agricultural products Greenhouse with PV, Japan Agro PV in China 21
  41. 41. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME BIPV: expected to take-off • Drivers : – Compliance for building efficiency codes, less CO2 – Obligation to install PV ( Newly build houses in California from 2020, Public buildings in South Korea) – Price reduction of wafer-based Si technology contribute price reduction Source IEA PVPS Task15, “Coloured BIPV : Market, Research and Development” 22
  42. 42. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME EVs and VIPVs https://www.nedo.go.jp/content/100885778.pdfSource: IEA PVPS Snapshot Report • The accelerated development of the EV market could be compared to the development of the PV market, with similar penetrations. • With more than 2 million electric vehicles sold in 2018 (or 2,2% of the global car market) • To charge electric vehicles during work hours, the need for additional energy sources will become a key, while concepts such as virtual self-consumption will rapidly gain attention. VIPV could be a solution as well • IEA PVPS New Task, Task 17 is working on PV and Transport 23
  43. 43. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Contents • Industry trends from Trends • What happen in 2019 and later • Challenges of PV manufacturing for TW era 24
  44. 44. 25 Sources: PV Market Alliance Forecasts of PV capacity installed annually in the world Outlook for PV market by PVMA 0 50 100 150 200 250 Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GW Europe Middle East & Northern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Risk of global market decline exists in 2019 if Chinese market decreases (only 5.2 GW installed in Q1). Market above 110 GW is a credible forecast, with potential until 120 GW (high probability), or more (lower probability). EU, India, Middle-East, and more will be source of growth. Market diversification with innovative applications and… new business models 200 GW yearly market? Solar PV at 25
  45. 45. Outcome of 2nd TW Workshop (NREL・AIST・FhG-ISE) • 10 TW by 2030 and 70TW by 2050 • PV LCOE dropped to 2.5 US cent/kWh by 2018 and PV has competitiveness in various regions • 5 Key topics were identified for TW era – Grid and power electronics: technologies to match generation and consumption in wider area – Storage:Cost reduction and dissemination of Li ion batteries and pumped hydro have potential – Sector coupling:Renewable energy for transportation and heating and cooling of the building – Pt-o-X and P-to-G:Technologies to produce, store and use of Hydrogen, CH4 and other hydrocarbons – R&D and Manufacturing: Continue efforts to increase PV efficiency by R&D Source:Nancy Hagel, et. al, “Terawatt-Scale Photovoltaics: Transform global energy”, Science 31 May 2019, Vol. 364, Issue 6443, pp. 26
  46. 46. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Challenges for TW era • PV can contribute energy transition • TW era is coming but are we ready ?? – Investment in PV manufacturing – Reliability to ensure PV performance – Harmonization with other renewable or grid integration technologies 27
  47. 47. Acknowledgement for the support of PVPS activities Contact : Izumi KAIZUKA, RTS Corporation, kaizuka@rts-pv.com Thank you for your kind attention ! 感谢您的关注 끝 까지 경청해 주셔서 감사합니다 ご清聴ありがとうございました