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The future of linear TV channels in an on-demand world

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Tim Westcott, Senior Research Manager | Channels, Programming & Advertising, Omdia: webinar presentation at #TelesteLive Video delivery in 2020's, September 23, 2020

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The future of linear TV channels in an on-demand world

  1. 1. Brought to you by Informa Tech© 2020 Omdia Tim Westcott Channels, Programming and Advertising Presentation for Teleste 23 September 2020 The future of linear TV channels in an on-demand world
  2. 2. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General © 2020 OmdiaPage 2 The end of the 500-channel universe? Netflix (in Long Term View): ‘Now internet TV - which is on-demand, personalized, and available on any screen - is replacing linear TV.’ John Hendricks, founder of Discovery and CuriosityStream, at NATPE in January 2020: ‘There will only be 40 channels in the US, mainly showing news and sport. All other content will be on demand.’
  3. 3. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General Online subscriptions will overtake pay TV this year © 2020 OmdiaPage 3 • Pay TV has hit a plateau, while SVoD is continuing to grow • On demand has grown fast: Netflix Watch Instantly launched in 2007, Netflix and Amazon Prime Video switched on globally in 2012 • Traditional media companies around the world are following their lead and launching D2C 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Millionunits Online video subscriptions Pay TV subscriptions Source: Omdia
  4. 4. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General Cord-cutting has caused a steady decline in the US channels market © 2020 OmdiaPage 4 Leading groups forecast to lose 12% of domestic subscribers in next five years - 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 US pay TV subscribers (millions) Disney Sony ViacomCBS NBC Turner Fox Corporation HBO Fox Viacom
  5. 5. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General The challenge for the studios © 2020 OmdiaPage 5 Hollywood studios have evolved into channel-owning businesses c 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Networks Filmed entertainment Parks, Experiences and Products US media companies: 2019 revenues by segment (%)• Cable TV allowed major studios to exploit their libraries to launch thematic channels • Relaxation of ‘fin-syn’ rules in US meant they could also own broadcaster networks • Growth of pay TV in international market saw US groups export channel brands worldwide • Channels have brought new revenue streams from advertising and subscription • There are now no major studios which don’t own channels (though size varies widely)
  6. 6. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General But studio responses to Netflix have so far varied in strength… © 2020 OmdiaPage 6 Competition Disney Ended output deals with Netflix Acquired its own streaming platform Launched D2C: ESPN+, Disney+, Star (in 2021) Closed some linear channels Co-operation Sony Still producing and selling content to Netflix (worldwide rights to Seinfeld) Does not have own D2C platform Hedging their bets Warner Media, NBC, ViacomCBS Warner and NBC ended Netflix output deals D2C platforms have advertising element ViacomCBS producing for Netflix
  7. 7. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General © 2020 OmdiaPage 7 TV and online companies are increasingly competing for the same funding Funding sources Public broadcasters Commercial broadcasters Pay channels Platforms Studios Public Yes No No No No Advertising Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Subscription Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Content Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
  8. 8. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General Exclusive content has become the key battleground © 2020 OmdiaPage 8 • Netflix and Amazon investment in originals • Global platforms which are amortising their spending across the world • We expect Netflix to spend $12.3 billion on content in 2020 • Arrival of big-spending online platforms has sparked increase in original content worldwide • All US D2C platforms, Facebook and Apple making original content • This is on top of traditional media: US networks continue to invest in refreshing their schedules every season 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Original first-run productions on SVoD platforms (hours) Netflix Amazon
  9. 9. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General How about the rest of the world? © 2020 OmdiaPage 9 • Local players with local content are usually market leaders • Legacy terrestrial broadcasters still aggregate large audiences • Pay TV operators and telcos moving into TV • Local platforms entering SVoD • International DTC brands will tailor their approach to the market
  10. 10. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General TV channel reach (free and pay TV) remains far bigger than D2C © 2020 OmdiPage 10
  11. 11. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General How about the rest of the world? © 2020 OmdiaPage 11 • Traditional media players are pursuing diversification strategy, boosting production and distribution and launching D2C services
  12. 12. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General The worldwide pandemic has seen linear TV viewing boosted © 2020 OmdiaPage 12 • Short-term phenomenon with people stuck at home • But underlines continuing ability of news events and sport to command mass audiences • Hiatus in production of scripted series will see resurgence of formats • Live entertainment franchises have become a key part of TV Western Europe: TV viewing lockdown comparisons March 2019-2020 © 2020 Omdia Notes: TV viewing includes: Linear, TSV & Catch-up. Week number adheres to the ISO-8601 standard. Source: Omdia. Reference: Spain: Kantar, Italy: Auditel, Germany: AGF, France: Mediametrie, UK: Barb, NL: SKO 30.2% up (Week 13) 20.5% up (March) 21.9% up (March) 8% up (March) 34.1% up (March) 8.6% up (March)
  13. 13. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General Conclusion © 2020 OmdiaPage 13 • We will see a reduction in number of linear TV channels in our forecast period, especially with genres which can be timeshifted • There is an oversupply of channels with the pay TV market shrinking • However, while Disney is closing channels in favour of D2C service, other studios are not pursuing the same strategy • Traditional media companies will continue to operate linear channels • But they will also continue to diversify to control content and reach viewers online
  14. 14. The future of linear TV channels in an on demand world: Presentation for Teleste| September 2020 Information Classification: General Thank you! © 2020 OmdiaPage 14 Tim Westcott askananalyst@omdia.com

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