2. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
Source: IHS Global Insight (February 2017). Annual average estimated/projected growth in real GDP and annual average estimated/projected unemployment rates.2
India
Australia
China
Japan
France
Germany
Russia UK
Brazil
Canada
US
Mexico
WORLD
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
UnemploymentRate(2017p)
GDP Growth (2017p)
Despite considerable uncertainty in the political environment worldwide, global economic and labor market growth is projected to strengthen in
2017 and 2018, led by key fundamentals including US expansion, dollar appreciation, and higher commodity prices. While the current outlook
remains positive, risks also abound, as the world waits to see how the policies of a new presidential administration in the US, the beginning of
the Brexit process in the UK, the implementation of the new Five-Year Plan in China, and significant elections across Europe play out.
Q 1 ‘ 1 7
G L O B A L E C O N O M I C &
L A B O R M A R K E T S N A P S H O T
0% 2% 4% 6%
2020p
2019p
2018p
2017p
G D P G r o w t h
WORLD
AMER
EMEA
APAC
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
2020p
2019p
2018p
2017p
U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e
WORLD
AMER
EMEA
APAC
3. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
Sources: IHS Global Insight (February 2017); 2017 Legal Calendar North America, SIA; Lexology.com3
The economy is expected to stabilize as 2017 progresses,
but activity, as well as business and consumer sentiment,
remain poor. The labor market is similarly troubled, with
the unemployment rate approaching 12% after massive
job losses in 2016.
2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0%
6.9% 6.6% 6.4% 6.4%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
Although growth was somewhat subdued due to oil price
issues in recent years, the Canadian economy is expected to
strengthen in the short term. Employment gains also
started to pick up in the second half of 2016, and are
forecast to maintain momentum in 2017.
Numerous tailwinds are ushering the US economy into
2017, including a pickup in the energy sector, a strong
housing market, and mild inflationary signals. Employers
continue to add jobs at a brisk pace, but one that is
slowing as labor market slack is absorbed.
Mexico’s economic outlook has diminished following the
US election, as the new administration has raised the
possibility of lower investment and protectionist measures
against Mexico. Still, formal employment is expected to
accelerate slightly in 2017.
A M E R
0.3%
1.9%
3.3% 3.8%
11.7% 11.0%
9.7% 8.6%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
Americas regional economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2017 and 2018, driven by increased optimism, fiscal stimulus, and a pro-business
environment in the US; strengthening in the oil and gas sector; and a slow recovery process in key South American markets.
BRAZIL
CANADA
2.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1%
4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.2%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
US
1.7% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0%
4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
MEXICO
L E G I S L A T I V E
H I G H L I G H T S
U N I T E D S T A T E S
An executive order signed in January
2017 gives instructions to the federal
government to dismantle the
Affordable Care Act (ACA) by taking
steps to “waive, defer, grant
exemptions from or delay” any taxes
or penalties to the extent permitted
by law. In order to repeal and/or
replace the ACA further legislation
must be passed by the Senate.
U N I T E D S T A T E S
Higher minimum wages went into
effect in 19 states as of January
2017; Washington, D.C., Maryland,
and Oregon and will see minimum
wage increases in July. In addition,
minimum wages will go up in at least
22 cities and four counties in 2017.
C A N A D A
The final Changing Workplaces
Review report is expected by the end
of February 2017. The report will
have recommendations on amending
Ontario’s labor laws, with an aim to
reflect contemporary issues such as
non-standard employment.
4. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
4
A better-than-expected end to 2016 has raised France’s
growth prospects for 2017, although uncertainty over the
spring presidential elections is dampening the outlook.
Year-end employment figures also point to a labor market
that continues to very gradually improve.
1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4%
6.0% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
Germany’s economy has been remarkably resilient, and
will continue along in that vein in the near future. The
unemployment rate is also forecast to remain near
historic lows, as job creation continues and the flexible
labor market absorbs the recent influx of immigrants.
Economic growth remains resilient in the UK, although the
formal onset of the Brexit process in 2017 is likely to bring
uncertainty and subsequent softness. The labor market is
also holding up as of now, but unemployment is expected
to edge up as the year and the uncertainty progress.
The fourth quarter saw a surprising uptick in GDP, but the
Russian economy will still struggle to emerge from
recession in 2017 as consumer and investment activity
remains problematic. The labor market also faces issues,
including a court order that blocked access to LinkedIn.
E M E A
1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2%
9.8% 9.6% 9.4% 9.3%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
FRANCE
GERMANY
1.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8%
5.2% 5.7% 6.0% 5.8%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
UK
0.8% 1.7%
2.1% 2.8%
5.7%
5.0% 4.9% 4.8%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
RUSSIA
L E G I S L A T I V E
H I G H L I G H T S
P O L A N D
Under a new regulation, a
mandatory minimum hourly wage
for independent contractors is in
effect as of January 1 2017.
B E L G I U M
A draft bill that proposes several
structural reforms of the labor market
has been approved by the Council of
Ministers. Under the new reforms,
indefinite temporary contracts would
be permissible. The reforms also
include measures surrounding leave
policies, part time work, and
provisions to increase flexibility for
both workers and employers. The Bill
will be submitted for approval to the
Chamber of Representatives.
Western Europe is on a slow growth trajectory, with risks in 2017 coming from elections in Germany, France, and other countries, and the kick-off
of the Brexit process in the UK. Growth in Emerging Europe and the Middle East is constrained by low regional demand and depressed oil prices.
Sources: IHS Global Insight (February 2017); SIA Europe Legal Update, Q4 2016; SIA Daily News, 11.18.16
G E R M A N Y
A new wage agreement for the
temporary employment sector was
reached in November 2016. The new
rate changes will take effect March 1
2017 with regular increases through
the end of 2019. The new Temporary
Employment Act (AÜG) also comes
into force on April 1 2017.
5. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
5
The forecast calls for moderate economic growth in the
short term, driven by growth in exports and improvements
in private consumption and investment. Unemployment is
expected to be similarly stable, hovering in the 5.7%-5.5%
range over the next couple of years.
7.1% 7.6% 7.5% 7.7%
8.6%
8.1% 7.9% 7.7%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
China’s economic growth is expected to continue to slow
modestly over the next few years as the housing market
and other issues—both domestic and international—pose
challenges. The State Council aims to add more than 50
million new jobs in urban areas from 2016 to 2020.
Modest growth is forecast for Japan, driven by domestic
demand but constrained by uncertainties over the global
economy and volatile foreign-exchange rates. The labor
market remains extremely tight, with the job openings to
applicants ratio at a more than 25-year high.
The government’s demonetization policy dented growth
in 2016, but the economy is expected to bounce back
above 7% in 2017 helped by a fiscal stimulus plan.
Likewise, hiring plans are becoming more positive and
unemployment is forecast to fall.
A P A C
2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8%
5.7% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
APAC is still the regional growth leader, although both China and India have seen somewhat slower growth than usual in 2016. China’s gradual
cooling is predicted to continue, while other Asian economies are forecast to see a slight uptick, leading to a stable regional outlook.
AUSTRALIAINDIA
1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2%
3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.4%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
JAPAN
6.5% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1%
4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth Unemployment
CHINA
L E G I S L A T I V E
H I G H L I G H T S
C H I N A
Three new regulations for enforcing
labor laws have come into place in
2017. Provisions include a new
ranking system for companies based
on their labor law compliance
history; public announcements of
severe labor law infractions; and
random inspections of companies’
employment information/ practices.
I N D I A
The government has proposed to
streamline 44 labor laws into five new
comprehensive laws: The Labour
Code on Industrial Relations, The
Labour Code on Wages, Industry and
Safety Welfare Code, Social Security
Code, and Small Factories Code. The
Labour Code on Industrial Relations
and the Labour Code on Wages are
expected to be introduced during the
2017 winter session of Parliament.
Sources: IHS Global Insight (February 2017); SIA APAC Legal Update, Q4 2016; 2017 Asia Employment Law Forecast, DLA Piper; Reuters, 02.07.17; Economic Times, 02.10.17
J A P A N
Several new regulations that provide
expanded and more flexible child and
family leave take effect in 2017.
6. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
6
W O R L D
G L O B A L TA L E N T S P O T L I G H T :
T H E P R O D U C T I V I T Y PA R A D O X
P R O D U C T I V I T Y G R O W T H S L U M P S T U M P S E X P E R T S
Growth in worker productivity—defined as the amount of output (GDP) per hour worked—has been slowing in many major
economies in recent (and not so recent) years. Although productivity growth rates remain below pre-recession levels in
many countries, research from the OECD shows that the slowdown began well before the crisis in developed economies
ranging from Canada to Japan to France and Germany.
This slowdown is occurring at the same time as several phenomena that traditionally have accelerated productivity—
significant technological change, increasing globalization of firms and countries, and rising education levels in the labor
force—causing economists to look closely for the reasons behind the productivity paradox.
Many theories have been posed, ranging from potential lagged effects of new technologies, a slowdown of innovation, or a
breakdown in the diffusion of technologies, to questions about how productivity is measured. Another debate: whether the
productivity declines are more structural or cyclical in nature. So far, no definitive conclusions have been reached, but
solving the dilemma behind the deceleration may lead to a greater understanding of how to raise productivity in the future.
Source: OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators 2016 and Productivity Database. Productivity data is GDP per hour worked in USD, constant prices, 2010 PPPs
0%
2%
4%
6%
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
G7
Trendline
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Canada
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Australia
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
France
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Germany
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
United Kingdom
-5%
0%
5%
10%
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Japan
-2%
0%
2%
4%
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
United States
T R E N D I N W O R K E R P R O D U C T I V I T Y G R O W T H , G 7 C O U N T R I E S
$40
$48
$49
$53
$59
$61
$63
Japan
UK
Canada
Australia
Germany
France
US
W O R K E R P R O D U C T I V I T Y ,
G 7 C O U N T R I E S
GDP per hour worked in USD,
constant prices, 2010 PPPs
Trendline Trendline Trendline
Trendline Trendline Trendline
Trendline
7. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y
7
I N D U S T R Y
W O R K F O R C E S O L U T I O N S S P O T L I G H T :
V A L U E - A D D E D R P O
Sources: RPO Annual Report 2016, Everest Group; Targeting RPO, Nelson Hall, 2016
S T E P P I N G U P T H E V A L U E O F R P O
With labor markets around the globe tightening and the war for talent
intensifying, organizations are increasingly looking for additional expertise when
it comes to attracting and hiring talent and optimizing their workforces. As a
result, more and more companies are turning to their RPO providers for more
sophisticated processes, targeted talent offerings, and innovative techniques.
According to Everest, more than half of RPO contracts now include employer
branding and talent community responsibilities, and nearly thee quarters of all
RPO deals include talent assessment. And Nelson Hall reports that specialty RPO
service offerings targeting specific worker populations, such as campus
recruiting and diversity hiring, also continue to gain traction.
The benefits of higher-level RPO can be significant, ranging from broader talent
access to lower attrition rates to greater alignment with business strategies.
45%
40%
22%
62%
54% 51%
32%
74%
Employer
Branding
Talent
Communities
Workforce
Planning
Assessment
I N C L U S I O N O F V A L U E - A D D E D
P R O C E S S E S I N R P O D E A L S
2014 2015
TARGETED
RPO SERVICE
OFFERINGS
Campus
Recruiting
Veteran/
Military
Hiring
Diversity
Hiring
Seasonal
Hiring
Provided to ~35% of
RPO clients
Provided to ~60% of RPO
clients, up from ~40%
B E N E F I T S O F V A L U E - A D D E D R P O S E R V I C E S
Employer
Branding
Talent
Communities
Workforce
Planning
Assessment
Improve quality of hire
Better access to scarce
talent
Reduce time to hire
Reduce new hire
attrition
Optimize internal
resources
Alignment to
organizational strategy