1. ANALYZING AND MANAGING
POLITICAL AND BUSINESS RISKS
IN MYANMAR
Thet Aung Min Latt
Managing Director
Diamond Intelligence Co., Ltd
www.diamondconsultantgroup.co
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Myanmar Oil and Gas conference

2. AGENDA
 1. An assessment of the Myanmar General elections, key players
 2. Analysis on the general elections impact on Myanmar business community
 3. When major initiatives will happen and why?
 4. Now, 2015 and beyond, community organization and NGO: impact on pipeline,
environmental regulations and labour dispute.
 5. Ethnic Politics and hate speech issues impact offshore and onshore blocks in
Myanmar
 6. Different scenario in 2015 Myanmar general election

3. THE KEY PLAYERS
 The Military
 USDP
 NLD
 Ethnic political parties

4. THE MILITARY
 Senior General Min Aung Hlaing
 General Wai Lwin
 General Mya Tun Oo

5. USDP
 U Thein Sein – current president
 U Thura Shwe Mann – current speaker of the house
 U Htay Oo – Vice chairman of USDP

6. NLD
 Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

7. ETHNIC POLITICAL PARTIES
 Rakhine National Party
U Aung Thar Aung
 Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (white tiger)
Sai Ai Pao
 SNLD
 Khun Htun Oo

8. THE ELECTION
 USDP
 NLD
 The Military (25% and former General)
 Ethnic political parties

9. USDP
 West policy
 Party Congress (President and MPs)
 Rebuilding image
 Controversial Ministers, MPs

10. NLD
 NLD congress
 Lack of MPs for election BIG challenge
 The management committee
 Would like to choose Youth and Women

11. ETHNIC POLITICAL PARTIES
 Likely to win major vote in ethnic region
 Shan, Rahkine and Mon

12. THE MILITARY
 Senior General Min Aung Hlaing
 Recent visit
Last year – Korea, Japan
This year – Pakistan, Serbia, UAE
 Good relationship with Thai army
 Building diplomatic image
 Rebuild Myanmar army image during Kokant conflict

13. PERMANENT SECRETARY
www.moi.gov.mm

14. PERMANENT SECRETARY
 permanent secretaries will run the government
 During prepare for election and after the election

15. THE GOVERNMENT AFTER
ELECTION
 President
 Vice President
 Speaker of the house
 Commander in Chief
* [ One vice president as National Energy Planning committee ]

16. MAJOR INITIATIVES
 2015
 2016 – Very likely to become coalition government
USDP, NLD, ethnic parties
 2017 – Likely to prove new bills, effective government

17. INSTABILITY - INTERNAL
 Rise of Labor Union – example Zawtika project

18. INSTABILITY – EXTERNAL
 Arakan army current conflict with army
 Anti Muslim movement
 New tension in Kayah with KNPP

19. Photo from bnionline.net

20. IN RAKHINE
 Rakhine party and armed group interest
 2008 Constitution Appendix I and II changes
 Their resources for their region
 Their region with their leader as Chief Minister

21. WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS
DOING
 Stability
 Electricity for Rakhine state
 Not accepting yet AA, TNLA, MNDAA in NCA

22. RECOMMENDATION
 Effective CSR
 Environmental
 Employee
 Emergency plan review
 External Communication (PR)

23. THANKS
 Q&A
Thet Aung Min Latt
Managing Director
Diamond Intelligence Co., Ltd
www.diamondconsultantgroup.com