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INDUSTRYLANDSCAPE
STEVE STURM
MARKETSALES REVIEW
Q1 2014
15.3 15.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Q1 2013 Q1 2014
SAAR Performance
Million, Q1 2013 vs. 2014
+2.6%
2.2%
3.8%
1.9% 1.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Domestic Japanese Korean European
SAAR Performance
% Change, Q1 2013 vs. 2014
MARKETSALES REVIEW
March 2014
15.3 16.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Mar-13 Mar-14
SAAR Performance
Million, March 2013 vs. 2014
+5.2% 10.1% 9.5%
7.7%
10.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Domestic Japanese Korean European
SAAR Performance
% Change, March 2013 vs. 2014
BRANDPERFORMANCE
4
46%
38%
33%
23%
16%
16%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
10%
7%
7%
5%
4%
1%
1%
-2%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Jeep
Lincoln
Jaguar
Subaru
Jeep
Lexus
Infiniti
Buick
Nissan
BMW
Buick
Acura
Mercedes
Land Rover
Dodge
Audi
Mazda
GMC
Chevrolet
Toyota
Ford
Honda
Volvo
Cadillac
Chrysler
VW
Sales, % Change
Q1 2013 vs. 2014
On a Roll
Middle of the Road
Struggling
Subaru
Lexus
Infiniti
Nissan
Acura
Mazda
Toyota
Honda
INDUSTRYFORECAST
2nd Quarter and 2014
Vehicle Prices
$29,300
+$700 from 2013
Vehicle Incentives
$2,773
+7.9% vs. February
Vehicle Production
4M vehicles built in NA in Q1
+3% from 2013
63 days supply in dealer
stock
+3 days over normal
Average Age of U.S. Car
and Truck in Operation
11.4 years
9.6 years in 2002
2014 Market Forecast
16.1M – today
16.2 – beginning of 2014
2014 North American
Production
16.5M
+3% from 2013
MARKET SHARE WAR
• Core Brands & Core Models:
– Compact and mid-size cars
– Full size pick-ups
– Cross-overs
– Luxury entry
THE NEXT
QUARTER
ANDBEYOND
Tier 1
• Ongoing Sales Events – May, June, Aug,
Sept, Dec
Tier 2
• Heightened focus
Tier 3
• Dealers will increase spending with strong
market and continued strong factory incentives
• Fuel prices – Any major upward
price movement will shift focus
from truck to car (hybrids)
• Interest rates – Any major
upward movement could
weaken sales if Auto companies
don’t maintain incentive levels
Increased targeted marketing spend:
• Tier 1: More focus on digital vs. TV/Print
• Tier 2: Expanded digital presence
NEW PRODUCTS WILL RULE FACTORS TO WATCH
THE NEXT
QUARTER
ANDBEYOND
16.1MSALES FORECAST IN 2014
Source: IHS, October 2013
41NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES SCHEDULED
IN 2014
Source: IHS, April 2013
9
2014NEW PRODUCTS –30
1st Half 2nd Half
• TLX redesign
• Fit redesign, Fit crossover debut
• Genesis re-engineer • Sonata re-engineer
• Q70 Hybrid debut • Q60 coupe debut, Q70 freshen
• Sedona redesign, Soul EV (or early 2015)
• RC 350 debut, NX 200t debut
• CX-5 re-engineer • Mazda2 redesign, Mazda6 re-engineer (or early 2015)
• Outlander Sport re-engineer, Outlander plug-in hybrid debut
• Versa, Maxima, Murano, Frontier, Xterra, Altima freshen
• WRX/STI redesign • Impreza freshen, Outback, Legacy redesign
• Highlander redesign • Camry freshen , Tacoma redesign
Source: Automotive News
TWO KEY PRODUCTTRENDS
By 2020, 90% of cars will be connected
to the internet (up from 10% today)
One of the fastest growing segments,
posting a CYTD gain of 25% vs. last year
HIGH TECH FEATURESALTERNATIVE FUELS
Source: Automotive News, November 2013; The Connected Car Industry 2013 report (Telefonica)
11
These fullsize pickup and SUV
buyers generate the largest profit
of any vehicle type
Hit hard by the recession, this
segment is recovering and
expected to account for 13% of
sales in 2014
Capturing this demo is key to
success for auto brands
because of its sheer size (80+
Million)
ALPHA MALESLUXURY BUYERSMILLENIALS
THREEKEYTARGETAUDIENCES
12
CONSUMERSGAINCONTROL
Brand loyalty varies by
age, but is generally
declining. Loyalty is
lowest among buyers < 30
years old.
LESS BRAND
LOYALTY
The internet, now the #1 most
influential source for
researching new car
purchases, gives consumers
faster and better access to
information
GREATER
TRANSPARENCYProduct proliferation
means more choice,
higher quality, and better
value for consumers
MORE CHOICE
Source: ORC International, March 2012; AOL Research
13
AD SPENDING
SHIFTS& INCREASES
$14.8 Billion in 2012
• Tier 1 = $8.8 Billion
• Tier 2/3 = $6.0 Billion
Fastest growth rate of all industries
Will increase to nearly $15.5 Billion in 2014
Across all tiers, the shift to digital continues
at the expense of more traditional mediums
with mobile and video leading the way
AUTOS RANKS #2 IN
AD SPENDING
DIGITAL CAPTURES MORE
AD SPENDING DOLLARS
Source: The US Automotive Industry, eMarketer (June 2013)
14
Q & A
15

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thinkLA Automotive Breakfast 2014 - Steve Sturm Presentation

  • 2. MARKETSALES REVIEW Q1 2014 15.3 15.7 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 SAAR Performance Million, Q1 2013 vs. 2014 +2.6% 2.2% 3.8% 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Domestic Japanese Korean European SAAR Performance % Change, Q1 2013 vs. 2014
  • 3. MARKETSALES REVIEW March 2014 15.3 16.1 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Mar-13 Mar-14 SAAR Performance Million, March 2013 vs. 2014 +5.2% 10.1% 9.5% 7.7% 10.8% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Domestic Japanese Korean European SAAR Performance % Change, March 2013 vs. 2014
  • 5. INDUSTRYFORECAST 2nd Quarter and 2014 Vehicle Prices $29,300 +$700 from 2013 Vehicle Incentives $2,773 +7.9% vs. February Vehicle Production 4M vehicles built in NA in Q1 +3% from 2013 63 days supply in dealer stock +3 days over normal Average Age of U.S. Car and Truck in Operation 11.4 years 9.6 years in 2002 2014 Market Forecast 16.1M – today 16.2 – beginning of 2014 2014 North American Production 16.5M +3% from 2013
  • 6. MARKET SHARE WAR • Core Brands & Core Models: – Compact and mid-size cars – Full size pick-ups – Cross-overs – Luxury entry THE NEXT QUARTER ANDBEYOND Tier 1 • Ongoing Sales Events – May, June, Aug, Sept, Dec Tier 2 • Heightened focus Tier 3 • Dealers will increase spending with strong market and continued strong factory incentives
  • 7. • Fuel prices – Any major upward price movement will shift focus from truck to car (hybrids) • Interest rates – Any major upward movement could weaken sales if Auto companies don’t maintain incentive levels Increased targeted marketing spend: • Tier 1: More focus on digital vs. TV/Print • Tier 2: Expanded digital presence NEW PRODUCTS WILL RULE FACTORS TO WATCH THE NEXT QUARTER ANDBEYOND
  • 8. 16.1MSALES FORECAST IN 2014 Source: IHS, October 2013
  • 9. 41NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES SCHEDULED IN 2014 Source: IHS, April 2013 9
  • 10. 2014NEW PRODUCTS –30 1st Half 2nd Half • TLX redesign • Fit redesign, Fit crossover debut • Genesis re-engineer • Sonata re-engineer • Q70 Hybrid debut • Q60 coupe debut, Q70 freshen • Sedona redesign, Soul EV (or early 2015) • RC 350 debut, NX 200t debut • CX-5 re-engineer • Mazda2 redesign, Mazda6 re-engineer (or early 2015) • Outlander Sport re-engineer, Outlander plug-in hybrid debut • Versa, Maxima, Murano, Frontier, Xterra, Altima freshen • WRX/STI redesign • Impreza freshen, Outback, Legacy redesign • Highlander redesign • Camry freshen , Tacoma redesign Source: Automotive News
  • 11. TWO KEY PRODUCTTRENDS By 2020, 90% of cars will be connected to the internet (up from 10% today) One of the fastest growing segments, posting a CYTD gain of 25% vs. last year HIGH TECH FEATURESALTERNATIVE FUELS Source: Automotive News, November 2013; The Connected Car Industry 2013 report (Telefonica) 11
  • 12. These fullsize pickup and SUV buyers generate the largest profit of any vehicle type Hit hard by the recession, this segment is recovering and expected to account for 13% of sales in 2014 Capturing this demo is key to success for auto brands because of its sheer size (80+ Million) ALPHA MALESLUXURY BUYERSMILLENIALS THREEKEYTARGETAUDIENCES 12
  • 13. CONSUMERSGAINCONTROL Brand loyalty varies by age, but is generally declining. Loyalty is lowest among buyers < 30 years old. LESS BRAND LOYALTY The internet, now the #1 most influential source for researching new car purchases, gives consumers faster and better access to information GREATER TRANSPARENCYProduct proliferation means more choice, higher quality, and better value for consumers MORE CHOICE Source: ORC International, March 2012; AOL Research 13
  • 14. AD SPENDING SHIFTS& INCREASES $14.8 Billion in 2012 • Tier 1 = $8.8 Billion • Tier 2/3 = $6.0 Billion Fastest growth rate of all industries Will increase to nearly $15.5 Billion in 2014 Across all tiers, the shift to digital continues at the expense of more traditional mediums with mobile and video leading the way AUTOS RANKS #2 IN AD SPENDING DIGITAL CAPTURES MORE AD SPENDING DOLLARS Source: The US Automotive Industry, eMarketer (June 2013) 14