SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  27
Thinking Hard About the Future

                    Tim O’Reilly

                   July 21, 2010
                        OSCON
“I’m an inventor.
 I became interested in
 long term trends
 because an invention
 has to make sense in the
 world in which it is
 finished, not the world in
 which it is started.”
             -Ray Kurzweil
“The future is here.
It’s just not evenly
distributed yet.”
      - William Gibson
Harlan Ellison
Text




http://visaocarioca.com.br/?p=4270
The Black Christ of Portobelo, Panama
(not the one Harlan Ellison saw in Rio, but you get the idea...)
“the bottom line of what I've rambled on about here...
[is] to tell you that as night approaches we are all
aliens, down here on this alien Earth. To tell you that
not Christ nor man nor governments of men will save
you. To tell you that writers about tomorrow must stop
living in yesterday and work from their hearts and their
guts and their courage to tell us about tomorrow,
before all the tomorrows are stolen away from us. To
tell you no one will come down from the mountain to
save your lily-white hide or your black ass. God is
within you. Save yourselves.

“Otherwise, why would you have traveled all this
way . . . just to be alone?”
                             --Harlan Ellison, Introduction
What’s most important about open source




       “The Cornucopia of the Commons”
   Open Source
   Web 2.0
   “Crowdsourcing”
   “the Commons”
   Gov 2.0




 All about what happens when we work together
 And about systems that make it easier for us to
  work together
Work on stuff that matters
   Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/
Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble!

  Financial crises
  Worst income inequality since the Gilded
   Age
  Oil price shock
  Global warming
  Decline in science literacy & education
  Water scarcity
  Exotic diseases
  Aging populations and soaring health costs
  Decline in economic competitiveness and
   innovation
  Dysfunctional political system
Mission 4636
“the Adhocracy”
“We the people...”
Vending Machine Government




                             Vending Machine Gov concept from Donald Kettl:
                             The Next Government of the United States
We Need to Do More Than Shake
the Vending Machine!




             http://image06.webshots.com/6/2/57/50/190125750NgQXwu_ph.jpg
Connecting the dots
Build a better world
Together
“Otherwise, why would you have traveled
all this way . . . just to be alone?”
http://codeforamerica.org

Contenu connexe

Similaire à Oscon2010 Keynote

Light to the Nations - Week 8
Light to the Nations - Week 8Light to the Nations - Week 8
Light to the Nations - Week 8
PDEI
 
Foes of the Faith
Foes of the Faith Foes of the Faith
Foes of the Faith
niwres
 
The conflict of the ages - illuminati
The conflict of the ages - illuminatiThe conflict of the ages - illuminati
The conflict of the ages - illuminati
Rob Graham
 
Businass related thought for the week in word
Businass related thought for the week in wordBusinass related thought for the week in word
Businass related thought for the week in word
Dipen Parmar
 
The biggest secret
The biggest secretThe biggest secret
The biggest secret
Edgar Rubio
 

Similaire à Oscon2010 Keynote (15)

Light to the Nations - Week 8
Light to the Nations - Week 8Light to the Nations - Week 8
Light to the Nations - Week 8
 
40 the rise and decline of human civilization
40 the rise and decline of human civilization40 the rise and decline of human civilization
40 the rise and decline of human civilization
 
RBG Quotable Elders and Ancestors
RBG Quotable Elders and AncestorsRBG Quotable Elders and Ancestors
RBG Quotable Elders and Ancestors
 
Zero Sum Superheroes V3
Zero Sum Superheroes V3Zero Sum Superheroes V3
Zero Sum Superheroes V3
 
Foes of the Faith
Foes of the Faith Foes of the Faith
Foes of the Faith
 
The conflict of the ages - illuminati
The conflict of the ages - illuminatiThe conflict of the ages - illuminati
The conflict of the ages - illuminati
 
Businass related thought for the week in word
Businass related thought for the week in wordBusinass related thought for the week in word
Businass related thought for the week in word
 
The Christian Self, Part II - Meaning, Ambiguity, Co-Creation
The Christian Self, Part II - Meaning, Ambiguity, Co-CreationThe Christian Self, Part II - Meaning, Ambiguity, Co-Creation
The Christian Self, Part II - Meaning, Ambiguity, Co-Creation
 
Paul Hawken's Commencement Address, Univ of Portland 2009
Paul Hawken's Commencement Address, Univ of Portland 2009Paul Hawken's Commencement Address, Univ of Portland 2009
Paul Hawken's Commencement Address, Univ of Portland 2009
 
Season of the which
Season of the whichSeason of the which
Season of the which
 
Excess globalisation Emotional (Dis)Orders Dinis Guarda
Excess globalisation Emotional (Dis)Orders Dinis GuardaExcess globalisation Emotional (Dis)Orders Dinis Guarda
Excess globalisation Emotional (Dis)Orders Dinis Guarda
 
Omaha 4 missional
Omaha 4   missionalOmaha 4   missional
Omaha 4 missional
 
Existentialism and the Avatar SWC Coaching Conference
Existentialism and the Avatar SWC Coaching ConferenceExistentialism and the Avatar SWC Coaching Conference
Existentialism and the Avatar SWC Coaching Conference
 
The biggest secret
The biggest secretThe biggest secret
The biggest secret
 
Raise of the beast Part II - Understanding Prophecies From Current Events
Raise of the beast   Part II - Understanding  Prophecies From Current EventsRaise of the beast   Part II - Understanding  Prophecies From Current Events
Raise of the beast Part II - Understanding Prophecies From Current Events
 

Plus de Tim O'Reilly

Plus de Tim O'Reilly (20)

Mastering the demons of our own design
Mastering the demons of our own designMastering the demons of our own design
Mastering the demons of our own design
 
What's Wrong with the Silicon Valley Growth Model (Extended UCL Lecture)
What's Wrong with the Silicon Valley Growth Model (Extended UCL Lecture)What's Wrong with the Silicon Valley Growth Model (Extended UCL Lecture)
What's Wrong with the Silicon Valley Growth Model (Extended UCL Lecture)
 
Enterprise AI: What's It Really Good For?
Enterprise AI: What's It Really Good For?Enterprise AI: What's It Really Good For?
Enterprise AI: What's It Really Good For?
 
Learning in the Age of Knowledge on Demand
Learning in the Age of Knowledge on DemandLearning in the Age of Knowledge on Demand
Learning in the Age of Knowledge on Demand
 
What's Wrong With Silicon Valley's Growth Model
What's Wrong With Silicon Valley's Growth ModelWhat's Wrong With Silicon Valley's Growth Model
What's Wrong With Silicon Valley's Growth Model
 
The Opportunity for Agile Governance
The Opportunity for Agile GovernanceThe Opportunity for Agile Governance
The Opportunity for Agile Governance
 
Networks and the Next Economy
Networks and the Next EconomyNetworks and the Next Economy
Networks and the Next Economy
 
What's the Future of Work with AI?
What's the Future of Work with AI?What's the Future of Work with AI?
What's the Future of Work with AI?
 
Open Source in the Age of Cloud AI
Open Source in the Age of Cloud AIOpen Source in the Age of Cloud AI
Open Source in the Age of Cloud AI
 
We Must Redraw the Map
We Must Redraw the MapWe Must Redraw the Map
We Must Redraw the Map
 
Networks and the Next Economy
Networks and the Next EconomyNetworks and the Next Economy
Networks and the Next Economy
 
Networks and the Nature of the Firm
Networks and the Nature of the FirmNetworks and the Nature of the Firm
Networks and the Nature of the Firm
 
The Real Work of the 21st Century
The Real Work of the 21st CenturyThe Real Work of the 21st Century
The Real Work of the 21st Century
 
Do More. Do things that were previously impossible!
Do More. Do things that were previously impossible!Do More. Do things that were previously impossible!
Do More. Do things that were previously impossible!
 
We Get What We Ask For: Towards a New Distributional Economics
We Get What We Ask For: Towards a New Distributional EconomicsWe Get What We Ask For: Towards a New Distributional Economics
We Get What We Ask For: Towards a New Distributional Economics
 
Towards a New Distributional Economics
Towards a New Distributional EconomicsTowards a New Distributional Economics
Towards a New Distributional Economics
 
How AI Can Create Jobs
How AI Can Create JobsHow AI Can Create Jobs
How AI Can Create Jobs
 
Amazon.com's Web Services Opportunity
Amazon.com's Web Services OpportunityAmazon.com's Web Services Opportunity
Amazon.com's Web Services Opportunity
 
WTF?
WTF? WTF?
WTF?
 
WTF - Why the Future Is Up to Us - pptx version
WTF - Why the Future Is Up to Us - pptx versionWTF - Why the Future Is Up to Us - pptx version
WTF - Why the Future Is Up to Us - pptx version
 

Dernier

+971581248768>> SAFE AND ORIGINAL ABORTION PILLS FOR SALE IN DUBAI AND ABUDHA...
+971581248768>> SAFE AND ORIGINAL ABORTION PILLS FOR SALE IN DUBAI AND ABUDHA...+971581248768>> SAFE AND ORIGINAL ABORTION PILLS FOR SALE IN DUBAI AND ABUDHA...
+971581248768>> SAFE AND ORIGINAL ABORTION PILLS FOR SALE IN DUBAI AND ABUDHA...
?#DUbAI#??##{{(☎️+971_581248768%)**%*]'#abortion pills for sale in dubai@
 

Dernier (20)

Real Time Object Detection Using Open CV
Real Time Object Detection Using Open CVReal Time Object Detection Using Open CV
Real Time Object Detection Using Open CV
 
Scaling API-first – The story of a global engineering organization
Scaling API-first – The story of a global engineering organizationScaling API-first – The story of a global engineering organization
Scaling API-first – The story of a global engineering organization
 
Handwritten Text Recognition for manuscripts and early printed texts
Handwritten Text Recognition for manuscripts and early printed textsHandwritten Text Recognition for manuscripts and early printed texts
Handwritten Text Recognition for manuscripts and early printed texts
 
Apidays New York 2024 - Scaling API-first by Ian Reasor and Radu Cotescu, Adobe
Apidays New York 2024 - Scaling API-first by Ian Reasor and Radu Cotescu, AdobeApidays New York 2024 - Scaling API-first by Ian Reasor and Radu Cotescu, Adobe
Apidays New York 2024 - Scaling API-first by Ian Reasor and Radu Cotescu, Adobe
 
AWS Community Day CPH - Three problems of Terraform
AWS Community Day CPH - Three problems of TerraformAWS Community Day CPH - Three problems of Terraform
AWS Community Day CPH - Three problems of Terraform
 
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
 
Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
 
04-2024-HHUG-Sales-and-Marketing-Alignment.pptx
04-2024-HHUG-Sales-and-Marketing-Alignment.pptx04-2024-HHUG-Sales-and-Marketing-Alignment.pptx
04-2024-HHUG-Sales-and-Marketing-Alignment.pptx
 
Strategize a Smooth Tenant-to-tenant Migration and Copilot Takeoff
Strategize a Smooth Tenant-to-tenant Migration and Copilot TakeoffStrategize a Smooth Tenant-to-tenant Migration and Copilot Takeoff
Strategize a Smooth Tenant-to-tenant Migration and Copilot Takeoff
 
TrustArc Webinar - Unlock the Power of AI-Driven Data Discovery
TrustArc Webinar - Unlock the Power of AI-Driven Data DiscoveryTrustArc Webinar - Unlock the Power of AI-Driven Data Discovery
TrustArc Webinar - Unlock the Power of AI-Driven Data Discovery
 
+971581248768>> SAFE AND ORIGINAL ABORTION PILLS FOR SALE IN DUBAI AND ABUDHA...
+971581248768>> SAFE AND ORIGINAL ABORTION PILLS FOR SALE IN DUBAI AND ABUDHA...+971581248768>> SAFE AND ORIGINAL ABORTION PILLS FOR SALE IN DUBAI AND ABUDHA...
+971581248768>> SAFE AND ORIGINAL ABORTION PILLS FOR SALE IN DUBAI AND ABUDHA...
 
Automating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps Script
Automating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps ScriptAutomating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps Script
Automating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps Script
 
HTML Injection Attacks: Impact and Mitigation Strategies
HTML Injection Attacks: Impact and Mitigation StrategiesHTML Injection Attacks: Impact and Mitigation Strategies
HTML Injection Attacks: Impact and Mitigation Strategies
 
Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
 
Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
 
How to Troubleshoot Apps for the Modern Connected Worker
How to Troubleshoot Apps for the Modern Connected WorkerHow to Troubleshoot Apps for the Modern Connected Worker
How to Troubleshoot Apps for the Modern Connected Worker
 
Exploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone Processors
Exploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone ProcessorsExploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone Processors
Exploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone Processors
 
A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)
A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)
A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)
 
Developing An App To Navigate The Roads of Brazil
Developing An App To Navigate The Roads of BrazilDeveloping An App To Navigate The Roads of Brazil
Developing An App To Navigate The Roads of Brazil
 
From Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time Automation
From Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time AutomationFrom Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time Automation
From Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time Automation
 

Oscon2010 Keynote

  • 1. Thinking Hard About the Future Tim O’Reilly July 21, 2010 OSCON
  • 2. “I’m an inventor. I became interested in long term trends because an invention has to make sense in the world in which it is finished, not the world in which it is started.” -Ray Kurzweil
  • 3. “The future is here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” - William Gibson
  • 6. The Black Christ of Portobelo, Panama (not the one Harlan Ellison saw in Rio, but you get the idea...)
  • 7. “the bottom line of what I've rambled on about here... [is] to tell you that as night approaches we are all aliens, down here on this alien Earth. To tell you that not Christ nor man nor governments of men will save you. To tell you that writers about tomorrow must stop living in yesterday and work from their hearts and their guts and their courage to tell us about tomorrow, before all the tomorrows are stolen away from us. To tell you no one will come down from the mountain to save your lily-white hide or your black ass. God is within you. Save yourselves. “Otherwise, why would you have traveled all this way . . . just to be alone?” --Harlan Ellison, Introduction
  • 8. What’s most important about open source “The Cornucopia of the Commons”
  • 9. Open Source  Web 2.0  “Crowdsourcing”  “the Commons”  Gov 2.0  All about what happens when we work together  And about systems that make it easier for us to work together
  • 10. Work on stuff that matters
  • 11. Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/
  • 12. Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble!  Financial crises  Worst income inequality since the Gilded Age  Oil price shock  Global warming  Decline in science literacy & education  Water scarcity  Exotic diseases  Aging populations and soaring health costs  Decline in economic competitiveness and innovation  Dysfunctional political system
  • 13.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 21. Vending Machine Government Vending Machine Gov concept from Donald Kettl: The Next Government of the United States
  • 22. We Need to Do More Than Shake the Vending Machine! http://image06.webshots.com/6/2/57/50/190125750NgQXwu_ph.jpg
  • 24. Build a better world
  • 26. “Otherwise, why would you have traveled all this way . . . just to be alone?”

Notes de l'éditeur