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Post-mortem: Brexit

A brief look at history of EU, EU makeup and Brexit, how it may affect Britain, Europe and the rest of the world. We will be dissecting some EU Policies including single currency and its effects...

Of course, all from a systems thinking point of view.

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Post-mortem: Brexit

  1. 1. Brexit: Post-Mortem Dissecting Brexit TJ Gokcen @tjgokcen
  2. 2. What is Brexit? History of Europe and EU Single Currency Dissecting Brexit Brexit: Post-Mortem
  3. 3. What is Brexit? History of Europe and EU Single Currency Dissecting Brexit Brexit: Post-Mortem
  4. 4. Brexit: What is it? On June 23, 2016 United Kingdom voted to exit European Union.
  5. 5. Brexit: What is it? The victory margin was less than 5%. EXIT won.
  6. 6. What is Brexit? History of Europe and EU Single Currency Dissecting Brexit Brexit: Post-Mortem
  7. 7. Roman Empire
  8. 8. Byzantine Empire
  9. 9. Frankish Empire
  10. 10. Holy Roman Empire
  11. 11. Ottoman Empire
  12. 12. The First French Empire
  13. 13. The Austro-Hungary Empire
  14. 14. The Nazi Germany
  15. 15. Europe has been at war with each other since… the beginning.
  16. 16. Europe after WW II
  17. 17. Europe after WW II
  18. 18. United States of Europe
  19. 19. What is Brexit? History of Europe and EU Single Currency Dissecting Brexit Brexit: Post-Mortem
  20. 20. Euro
  21. 21. obliteration of the existing exchange rate fluctuations between a number of currencies Single Currency Advantages
  22. 22. reduction of transaction costs Single Currency Advantages
  23. 23. stimulates trade activities and free movement of capital, goods and people Single Currency Advantages
  24. 24. Economic Data Single Currency Disadvantages
  25. 25. No Control Single Currency Disadvantages
  26. 26. What is Brexit? History of Europe and EU Single Currency Dissecting Brexit Brexit: Post-Mortem
  27. 27. Nationalism Problems with EU
  28. 28. No National Anthem Problems with EU
  29. 29. Single Euro Football Team Problems with EU
  30. 30. Common Tax Problems with EU
  31. 31. Common Welfare Problems with EU
  32. 32. Problems with Brexit
  33. 33. Problems with Brexit
  34. 34. Problems with Brexit
  35. 35. End of UK?
  36. 36. Ireland and N.Ireland • EU helped with peace process
  37. 37. Ireland and N.Ireland • EU helped with peace process • Borders have to be tightened
  38. 38. Ireland and N.Ireland • EU helped with peace process • Borders have to be tightened • Borders require more controls
  39. 39. Ireland and N.Ireland • EU helped with peace process • Borders have to be tightened • Borders require more controls • Trade agreements needed
  40. 40. Scotland • Since 1979, until Tony Blair no PM won in Scotland
  41. 41. Scotland • Since 1979, until Tony Blair no PM won in Scotland • Scottish Nationalism
  42. 42. Scotland • Since 1979, until Tony Blair no PM won in Scotland • Scottish Nationalism • 2 years ago Independence referendum rejected based on staying in the EU
  43. 43. Scotland • Since 1979, until Tony Blair no PM won in Scotland • Scottish Nationalism • 2 years ago Independence referendum rejected based on staying in the EU • Trade agreements needed
  44. 44. UK • Brexit minister David Davis: UK can deport new EU migrants and still get good deal on single market access
  45. 45. UK • Brexit minister David Davis: UK can deport new EU migrants and still get good deal on single market access • Hoping for a good exit deal
  46. 46. UK • Brexit minister David Davis: UK can deport new EU migrants and still get good deal on single market access • Hoping for a good exit deal • Regain control
  47. 47. UK • Brexit minister David Davis: UK can deport new EU migrants and still get good deal on single market access • Hoping for a good exit deal • Regain control • Might see the breakup of UK
  48. 48. UK • Brexit minister David Davis: UK can deport new EU migrants and still get good deal on single market access • Hoping for a good exit deal • Regain control • Might see the breakup of UK • Will still need to obey by Trade Tariffs, more tax on UK goods and services
  49. 49. European Union • They can get their act together
  50. 50. European Union • They can get their act together • Make Brexit very painful and messy
  51. 51. European Union • They can get their act together • Make Brexit very painful and messy • Otherwise might see further breakaways
  52. 52. European Union • They can get their act together • Make Brexit very painful and messy • Otherwise might see further breakaways • Lots of lessons especially in central banks and monetary policies

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