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CHANGES and BUGS
Mining and Predicting Software Development Activities




                  Thomas Zimmermann
Software development



         Build
Collaboration




Comm.      Version      Bug
Archive    Archive    Database


  Mining Software Archives
MY THESIS                                                             .
additions analysis architecture archives aspects   bug cached calls
changes collaboration complexities component concerns cross-
cutting cvs data defects design development drawing dynamine
eclipse effort evolves failures fine-grained fix fix-inducing
graphs     hatari   history locate matching method mining
predicting program programmers report repositories
revision software support system taking transactions
version visualizing
Contributions of the thesis

Fine-grained analysis of version archives.              1
Project-specific usage patterns of methods (FSE 2005)
Identification of cross-cutting changes (ASE 2006)



Mining bug databases to predict defects.                2
Dependencies predict defects (ISSRE 2007, ICSE 2008)
Domino effect: depending on defect-prone binaries increases
the chances of having defects (Software Evolution 2008).
Fine-grained analysis

public void createPartControl(Composite parent) {
    ...
    // add listener for editor page activation
    getSite().getPage().addPartListener(partListener);
}

public void dispose() {
    ...
    getSite().getPage().removePartListener(partListener);
}
Fine-grained analysis

public void createPartControl(Composite parent) {
    ...
    // add listener for editor page activation
    getSite().getPage().addPartListener(partListener);
}

public void dispose() {         co-added
    ...
    getSite().getPage().removePartListener(partListener);
}
Fine-grained analysis

public void createPartControl(Composite parent) {
    ...                                                      close
    // add listener for editor page activation      open
    getSite().getPage().addPartListener(partListener);      println
}

public void dispose() {          co-added
    ...
    getSite().getPage().removePartListener(partListener);
}                                                             begin




           Co-added items = patterns
Fine-grained analysis
                  public static final native void _XFree(int address);
                  public static final void XFree(int /*long*/ address) {
                        lock.lock();
                        try {
                              _XFree(address);
                        } finally {
                              lock.unlock();
                        }
                  }

                                  D IN
                              N GE I O N S
                          CHA CAT
                         1284 LO


Crosscutting changes = aspect candidates
Contributions of the thesis

Fine-grained analysis of version archives.              1
Project-specific usage patterns of methods (FSE 2005)
Identification of cross-cutting changes (ASE 2006)



Mining bug databases to predict defects.                2
Dependencies predict defects (ISSRE 2007, ICSE 2008)
Domino effect: depending on defect-prone binaries increases
the chances of having defects (Software Evolution 2008).
Bugs! Bugs! Bugs!
Quality assurance is limited...

   ...by time...   ...and by money.
Spent resources on the
components that need it most,
  i.e., are most likely to fail.
Indicators of defects

Code complexity              Code churn
Complex Code is more         Changes are likely to
prone to defects.            introduce new defects.



History                      Dependencies
Code with past defects is    Using compiler packages
more likely to have future   is more difficult than using
defects,                     packages for UI.
2252 Binaries
28.3 MLOC
Hypotheses

Complexity of dependency graphs                             Sub
                                                          system
correlates with the number of post-release defects (H1)    level
can predict the number of post-release defects (H2)



Network measures on dependency graphs                     Binary
correlate with the number of post-release defects (H3)     level

can predict the number of post-release defects (H4)
can indicate critical “escrow” binaries (H5)
DATA.   .
Data collection
                      six months
 Release point for
                       to collect
Windows Server 2003
                        defects



  Dependencies

Network Measures

Complexity Metrics     Defects
Centrality




Degree                         Closeness                           Betweenness
Blue binary has dependencies   Blue binary is close to all other   Blue binary connects the left
to many other binaries         binaries (only two steps)           with the right graph (bridge)
Centrality
• Degreethe number dependencies
          centrality
   -
   counts

• Closeness centrality binaries into account
   -
   takes distance to all other
   - Closeness: How close are the other binaries?
   - Reach: How many binaries can be reached (weighted)?
   - Eigenvector: similar to Pagerank
• Betweenness centrality paths through a binary
   -
   counts the number of shortest
Complexity metrics
Group                  Metrics                                 Aggregation
Module metrics         # functions in B
for a binary B         # global variables in B
                       # executable lines in f()
                       # parameters in f()
Per-function metrics                                              Total
                       # functions calling f()
for a function f()                                                Max
                       # functions called by f()
                       McCabe’s cyclomatic complexity of f()
                       # methods in C
                       # subclasses of C
OO metrics                                                        Total
                       Depth of C in the inheritance tree
for a class C                                                     Max
                       Coupling between classes
                       Cyclic coupling between classes
RESULTS.   .
Prediction


Input metrics and measures   Model        Prediction
                               PCA
                             Regression
  Metrics                                     Classification
                 SNA

 Metrics+SNA                                   Ranking
Classification


Has a binary a defect or not?




            or
Ranking


Which binaries have the most defects?




    or                or ... or
Random splits




4×50×
Classification
 (logistic regression)
Classification
            (logistic regression)




SNA increases the recall by 0.10 (at p=0.01)
  while precision remains comparable.
Ranking
          (linear regression)




SNA+METRICS increases the correlation
    by 0.10 (significant at p=0.01)
FUTURE WORK                                                        .
                                         bug cached calls
                          bug changes collaboration
additions analysis architecture archives aspects
analysis archives aspects
changes collaboration complexities component concerns cross-
complexities component concerns cross-cutting cvs data defects
cutting cvs data defects design development drawing dynamine
design development drawing eclipse erose evolves factor
eclipse effort evolvesfix-inducing fine-grained fix fix-inducing
failures fine-grained fix
                          failures
                                   fm graphs guide hatari
graphs hatari history locate matching method mining
history human matching mining networking
predicting program programmers report repositories
predicting program programmers system report repositories
revision software support
                               quality
                                        taking transactions
revision social software support system taking version
version visualizing
"Piled Higher and Deeper" by Jorge Cham. www.phdcomics.com
"Piled Higher and Deeper" by Jorge Cham. www.phdcomics.com
"Piled Higher and Deeper" by Jorge Cham. www.phdcomics.com
Contributions of the thesis

Fine-grained analysis of version archives.              1
Project-specific usage patterns of methods (FSE 2005)
Identification of cross-cutting changes (ASE 2006)



Mining bug databases to predict defects.                2
Dependencies predict defects (ISSRE 2007, ICSE 2008)
Domino effect: depending on defect-prone binaries increases
the chances of having defects (Software Evolution 2008).

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Changes and Bugs: Mining and Predicting Development Activities

  • 1. CHANGES and BUGS Mining and Predicting Software Development Activities Thomas Zimmermann
  • 3. Collaboration Comm. Version Bug Archive Archive Database Mining Software Archives
  • 4. MY THESIS . additions analysis architecture archives aspects bug cached calls changes collaboration complexities component concerns cross- cutting cvs data defects design development drawing dynamine eclipse effort evolves failures fine-grained fix fix-inducing graphs hatari history locate matching method mining predicting program programmers report repositories revision software support system taking transactions version visualizing
  • 5. Contributions of the thesis Fine-grained analysis of version archives. 1 Project-specific usage patterns of methods (FSE 2005) Identification of cross-cutting changes (ASE 2006) Mining bug databases to predict defects. 2 Dependencies predict defects (ISSRE 2007, ICSE 2008) Domino effect: depending on defect-prone binaries increases the chances of having defects (Software Evolution 2008).
  • 6. Fine-grained analysis public void createPartControl(Composite parent) { ... // add listener for editor page activation getSite().getPage().addPartListener(partListener); } public void dispose() { ... getSite().getPage().removePartListener(partListener); }
  • 7. Fine-grained analysis public void createPartControl(Composite parent) { ... // add listener for editor page activation getSite().getPage().addPartListener(partListener); } public void dispose() { co-added ... getSite().getPage().removePartListener(partListener); }
  • 8. Fine-grained analysis public void createPartControl(Composite parent) { ... close // add listener for editor page activation open getSite().getPage().addPartListener(partListener); println } public void dispose() { co-added ... getSite().getPage().removePartListener(partListener); } begin Co-added items = patterns
  • 9. Fine-grained analysis public static final native void _XFree(int address); public static final void XFree(int /*long*/ address) { lock.lock(); try { _XFree(address); } finally { lock.unlock(); } } D IN N GE I O N S CHA CAT 1284 LO Crosscutting changes = aspect candidates
  • 10. Contributions of the thesis Fine-grained analysis of version archives. 1 Project-specific usage patterns of methods (FSE 2005) Identification of cross-cutting changes (ASE 2006) Mining bug databases to predict defects. 2 Dependencies predict defects (ISSRE 2007, ICSE 2008) Domino effect: depending on defect-prone binaries increases the chances of having defects (Software Evolution 2008).
  • 12. Quality assurance is limited... ...by time... ...and by money.
  • 13. Spent resources on the components that need it most, i.e., are most likely to fail.
  • 14. Indicators of defects Code complexity Code churn Complex Code is more Changes are likely to prone to defects. introduce new defects. History Dependencies Code with past defects is Using compiler packages more likely to have future is more difficult than using defects, packages for UI.
  • 16. Hypotheses Complexity of dependency graphs Sub system correlates with the number of post-release defects (H1) level can predict the number of post-release defects (H2) Network measures on dependency graphs Binary correlate with the number of post-release defects (H3) level can predict the number of post-release defects (H4) can indicate critical “escrow” binaries (H5)
  • 17. DATA. .
  • 18. Data collection six months Release point for to collect Windows Server 2003 defects Dependencies Network Measures Complexity Metrics Defects
  • 19. Centrality Degree Closeness Betweenness Blue binary has dependencies Blue binary is close to all other Blue binary connects the left to many other binaries binaries (only two steps) with the right graph (bridge)
  • 20. Centrality • Degreethe number dependencies centrality - counts • Closeness centrality binaries into account - takes distance to all other - Closeness: How close are the other binaries? - Reach: How many binaries can be reached (weighted)? - Eigenvector: similar to Pagerank • Betweenness centrality paths through a binary - counts the number of shortest
  • 21. Complexity metrics Group Metrics Aggregation Module metrics # functions in B for a binary B # global variables in B # executable lines in f() # parameters in f() Per-function metrics Total # functions calling f() for a function f() Max # functions called by f() McCabe’s cyclomatic complexity of f() # methods in C # subclasses of C OO metrics Total Depth of C in the inheritance tree for a class C Max Coupling between classes Cyclic coupling between classes
  • 22. RESULTS. .
  • 23. Prediction Input metrics and measures Model Prediction PCA Regression Metrics Classification SNA Metrics+SNA Ranking
  • 24. Classification Has a binary a defect or not? or
  • 25. Ranking Which binaries have the most defects? or or ... or
  • 28. Classification (logistic regression) SNA increases the recall by 0.10 (at p=0.01) while precision remains comparable.
  • 29. Ranking (linear regression) SNA+METRICS increases the correlation by 0.10 (significant at p=0.01)
  • 30. FUTURE WORK . bug cached calls bug changes collaboration additions analysis architecture archives aspects analysis archives aspects changes collaboration complexities component concerns cross- complexities component concerns cross-cutting cvs data defects cutting cvs data defects design development drawing dynamine design development drawing eclipse erose evolves factor eclipse effort evolvesfix-inducing fine-grained fix fix-inducing failures fine-grained fix failures fm graphs guide hatari graphs hatari history locate matching method mining history human matching mining networking predicting program programmers report repositories predicting program programmers system report repositories revision software support quality taking transactions revision social software support system taking version version visualizing
  • 31. "Piled Higher and Deeper" by Jorge Cham. www.phdcomics.com
  • 32. "Piled Higher and Deeper" by Jorge Cham. www.phdcomics.com
  • 33. "Piled Higher and Deeper" by Jorge Cham. www.phdcomics.com
  • 34. Contributions of the thesis Fine-grained analysis of version archives. 1 Project-specific usage patterns of methods (FSE 2005) Identification of cross-cutting changes (ASE 2006) Mining bug databases to predict defects. 2 Dependencies predict defects (ISSRE 2007, ICSE 2008) Domino effect: depending on defect-prone binaries increases the chances of having defects (Software Evolution 2008).