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GeoDesign for Sustainable Development
- 1. GeoDesign for Sustainable Development Tom Gardner
- 2. 2050
- 3. 3.5 million
- 7. 2050
- 8. +1.8 million
- 9. You Are Here 1960 Iron Ore 1890 Gold
- 11. 1925
- 12. 1974
- 13. 2010
- 14. 2050 ?
- 16. 2031
- 23. 2031
- 24. 500,000 People 328,000 Houses
- 25. Newcastle
- 26. Grenoble
- 27. Manchester
- 28. Tucson
- 29. 53% Greenfield Development 173,840 Houses
- 30. City of Stirling x 2
- 31. 40km North
- 32. 80km South
- 34. 68% Greenfield Development 223,040 Houses
- 35. City of Stirling x 2.5
- 37. "GeoDesign is a design and planning method which tightly couples the creation of design proposals with impact simulations informed by geographic contexts"
- 39. New Paradigm
- 40. So Where Does GeoDesign Come into Play in Perth?
- 45. Models = Repeatable Analysis
- 50. Population Density: 20,800 / sq km
- 51. Population Density: 300 / sq km
- 54. Residential Areas within 100m of Major Roads
- 60. GIS is more than this
- 61. Tom Gardner tgardner@esriaustralia.com.au Thank you
Editor's Notes
- This seems like a long time away…
- By then Perth will have a population of at least 3.5 million people
- Just for comparison that is the population of Melbourne
- Now after a little research I managed to find out that the largest crowd ever was New Year Eve 1995 on Copacabana Beach – yes you guessed it 3.5 million people!
- But the amazing thing was that they came to see this guy!
- Back to 2050
- That’s another Perth to build… the first one took 182 years to get to the same size and we have less than 40.
- Now lets look at our population growth – it has been marked by three events: 1890 – Gold Rush 1960’s – Iron Ore Now – Resources ‘Growth’We can’t be completely sure of where the population will head in the next 40 years – however since this forecast has been done it has gone up not down. Mainly driven by…
- Mining (Rio Tinto IO West Angelas)
- So looking back where we came from – this is the extent of Perth in 1925…
- …and in 1974 (when I was born) – almost 40 year ago
- Where we have grown to now…
- And where we might be headed…
- Well it must be true if it is in the papers (or online).
- Well lets have a look at a shorter timeframe
- 2031 is the current planning horizon that is being focused on here in Perth – a mere 20 years from now.
- If we look at vision of the future this is sometimes what you get… this was a vision of Perth back in 1929.
- Things were different then – this is Fraser Ave in Kings Park… 1929
- Now going back to the blimps and planes in the vision of Perth I did some field work and on Saturday I went up to Kings Park to see if I could see any…
- I didn’t see a single Blimp or flying car…
- Not even an old fashioned one!
- Ah yes back to 2031 – in the next 20 years Perth will have an additional…
- 500,000 people in population (i.e. making it 2.2 million) with…
- Newcastle… in NSW
- Grenoble in France
- Manchester in the UK
- …and Tucson in Arizona – USA.
- The challenge is that even with the Directions 2031 plan it assumes that there will be 53% Greenfields Development…
- Or 2 City of Stirlings
- i.e. rolling out more suburbs to the north and…
- …to the south
- So this is what it might look like…. BUT…
- Currently we are doing 68% Greenfields Development – which equates to 223,040 houses
- Or 2 City of Stirlings
- 2 and a half City of Stirlings!
- And how do us spatial professionals fit in to planning for the future…