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Should I Pay or Should I Go? Game Theory and Ransomware

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Slides from Tony Martin-Vegue's presentation at Security BSides, San Francisco: February 12, 2017.

"Should I Pay or Should I Go? Game Theory and Ransomware"

Ransomware infections are nasty and potentially devastating events that can cripple large companies and home computers alike. Ransomware comes in many varieties and works in different ways, but the basic scenario is the same: cybercriminals infect your computer with malicious software that blocks access to your system or important files until you pay the ransom. You have a finite amount of days to pay if you ever want to see your files again.

Should you pay? The answer is a little more nuanced than “never pay” or “always pay.” The decision is a complex scenario of incentives and payoffs that can be analyzed with game theory. Game theory is a branch of mathematics that models conflict and cooperation between parties and is used in many real-world scenarios, inside and outside the Information Security field, including machine learning, poker games, allocation of security resources, kidnappings and nuclear war.

This talk will use the familiar topic of ransomware to introduce participants to game theory concepts like rational decision-making, zero-sum games, incentives, utility and Nash Equilibrium – all important tools that can help solve security problems. By analyzing ransomware decision-making with a game theory mindset, participants will learn a new set of skills and a new way of incentive-driven thinking. Participants may be surprised to find that ransomware response isn’t black or white.

Publié dans : Technologie
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Should I Pay or Should I Go? Game Theory and Ransomware

  1. 1. Should I Pay or Should I Go? Game Theory and Ransomware #bsidessf
  2. 2. Me @tdmv Tony Martin-Vegue
  3. 3. Why is this an open problem? What incentivizes the players? Should one ever pay a ransom?
  4. 4. “Game Theory can be defined as the study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers.” - Roger B. Myerson, Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict
  5. 5. Two Player
  6. 6. Non-Cooperative
  7. 7. Asymmetric
  8. 8. Zero Sum
  9. 9. Players & Their Choices Cyber Criminal Victim
  10. 10. Decision Tree Cyber criminal Do not start ransomware campaign Start ransomware campaign Victim Restore from backup No backups available Use third party decrypter None available Don't pay ransom Negotiate/pay ransom Cyber Criminal Release Data Don't release data
  11. 11. Decision Tree Cyber criminal Do not start ransomware campaign Start ransomware campaign
  12. 12. Decision Tree Victim Restore from backup No backups available Use third party decrypter None available
  13. 13. Decision Tree Victim Restore from backup No backups available Use third party decrypter None available Don't pay ransom Negotiate/pay ransom
  14. 14. Decision Tree Cyber Criminal Release Data Don't release data
  15. 15. Incident responders
  16. 16. Thought leaders
  17. 17. Risk managers
  18. 18. Resources No More Ransom! Project https://www.nomoreransom.org Economics and Security (complied by Ross Anderson) https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/econsec.html Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict (book) by Roger Myerson Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (book) by John von Neumann

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