11. TOTAL PERFORMANCE IS ACCUMULATED
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
RANK AT WHICH HALF OF
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
12. BELL’S LAW (1972)
“Bell's Law of Computer Class formation was discovered about 1972.
It states that technology advances in semiconductors, storage, user
interface and networking advance every decade enable a new, usually
lower priced computing platform to form. Once formed, each class is
maintained as a quite independent industry structure. This explains
mainframes, minicomputers, workstations and Personal computers, the
web, emerging web services, palm and mobile devices, and ubiquitous
interconnected networks. We can expect home and body area networks to
follow this path.”
From Gordon Bell (2007), http://research.microsoft.com/~GBell/Pubs.htm
13. HPC COMPUTER CLASSES AND BELL’S
LAW
• Bell’s Law states, that:
• Important classes of computer architectures
come in cycles of about 10 years.
• It takes about a decade for each phase
– Early research
– Early adoption and maturation
– Prime usage
– Phase out past its prime
• Can we use Bell’s Law to classify computer
architectures in the TOP500?
21. 1000000
100000
10000
1000
100
10
1
0.1
TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS
Average of Rmax
Average of Sockets
Average of Rmax/socket
Average of Cores per Socket
Average of Rmax/core
23. United States
46%
China
12%
Korea, South
Australia
France
6%
2%
United Kingdom
Japan
6%
6%
Germany
5%
India
2%
Russia
2%
2%
Others,
53,
11%
United States
China
Japan
United Kingdom
France
Germany
India
Russia
Australia
Korea, South
Others
COUNTRIES / SYSTEM SHARE
24. 100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
1
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Total Performance [Tflop/s]
US
EU
Japan
China
PERFORMANCE OF COUNTRIES
25. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Others
India
China
Korea, South
Japan
ASIAN COUNTRIES
26. 200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Systems
Others
Poland
Russia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Netherlands
Italy
France
United Kingdom
Germany
EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Annual versus Moore’s Law
1.87 TOP500 versus 1.59 Moore’s Law
Average age till 2011 was 1.27 years
Statistical significant inflection point in June 2008 for end of the list
Statistical significant inflection point in June 2008 for end of the list
No500 is lagging 10x by end of decade if this continues
Exceptional situation since 2011/12: Largest group of large systems on top not just No1
BG systems counted in Acc/Embedded
Subsample of:
Only new systems
Only vanilla single-/multi-core processors; No SIMD, vector, GPU,MIC
-> Moore’s Law is alive
-> No inflection in technology
Some very high efficiency systems use TurboBoost – wrong peak!
Green – custom inerconnect
Red – 10G
Blue – Gigabit Ethernet
Purple – Accelerator
Interesting is the average age of systems:
US grew from 1.25 to 2.25
Europe to 2.75
Japan always had 2-3 years old systems, no close to 3 years
China is at 1.6 years and has youngest population by far – China kept spending