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Public Lecture Slides (3.5.2019) The Heisei Era: Radical Change or Prolonged Sclerosis?

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The Heisei Era: Radical Change or Prolonged Sclerosis?
Speaker: Nobuko Kobayashi, Tokyo-based Partner at EY-Parthenon

Publié dans : Formation
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Public Lecture Slides (3.5.2019) The Heisei Era: Radical Change or Prolonged Sclerosis?

  1. 1. The Heisei Era: Radical Change or Prolonged Sclerosis? Temple University March 5, 2019
  2. 2. EY-Parthenon | Page 2 I try to make sense of Japan, and therefore the world Source: EY Parthenon • Japanese Corporations • Multi-Nationals • M&A • Strategy • Organization • Consumer sector • Nikkei Asian Review • Bloomberg • BBC • Conferences Management Consulting Writing & Speaking Part of Japanese problem is narrative deficiency My Value Proposition
  3. 3. EY-Parthenon | Page 3 Agenda Heisei era through a kaleidoscope Growth levers 1 2
  4. 4. EY-Parthenon | Page 4 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 1949-06-01 1950-06-01 1951-06-01 1952-06-01 1953-06-01 1954-06-01 1955-06-01 1956-06-01 1957-06-01 1958-06-01 1959-06-01 1960-06-01 1961-06-01 1962-06-01 1963-06-01 1964-06-01 1965-06-01 1966-06-01 1967-06-01 1968-06-01 1969-06-01 1970-06-01 1971-06-01 1972-06-01 1973-06-01 1974-06-01 1975-06-01 1976-06-01 1977-06-01 1978-06-01 1979-06-01 1980-06-01 1981-06-01 1982-06-01 1983-06-01 1984-06-01 1985-06-01 1986-06-01 1987-06-01 1988-06-01 1989-06-01 1990-06-01 1991-06-01 1992-06-01 1993-06-01 1994-06-01 1995-06-01 1996-06-01 1997-06-01 1998-06-01 1999-06-01 2000-06-01 2001-06-01 2002-06-01 2003-06-01 2004-06-01 2005-06-01 2006-06-01 2007-06-01 2008-06-01 2009-06-01 2010-06-01 2011-06-01 2012-06-01 2013-06-01 2014-06-01 2015-06-01 2016-06-01 2017-06-01 2018-06-01 The crash, a catalyst for “lost,” or turbulent decades? Note: (1) not an exhaustive list of historical milestones Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Bloomberg, Mizuho Research Institute, EY analysis Historical timeline (Nikkei average) 1995 January: Great Hanshin Earthquake March: Domestic cultattack 1964 Tokyo Olympics 1985 Bubble economy begins 2012 Launch of Abenomics 1973 First oil shock Showa era (1926 – 1989) Heisei era (1989 – 2019) 1990 Bubble economy collapses 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake 2008 Financial crisis 1952 Treaty of San Francisco signed, ending American occupation of Japan
  5. 5. EY-Parthenon | Page 5 4 Two earthquakes within Heisei were economically and psychologically damaging Source: CNN, McDouglall Insurance, World Atlas, The Guardian, Japan Journal Top 5 costliest natural disasters in history (billion USD) Costs (billion USD) Buildings (homes, offices, factories etc.) 12 3 5 $223 2011: Great East Japan Earthquake / Tsunami $98 1995: Great Hanshin Earthquake $148 2008: Sichuan Earthquake $160 2005: Hurricane Katrina $108 2017: Hurricane Harvey Lifeline facilities (water, gas, telecom etc..) Great East Japan Earthquake / Tsunami Great Hanshin Earthquake Infrastructure (roads, airports etc.) Other (agriculture, forestry etc..) 179 63 9 9 18 18 18 9 TOTAL 223 98
  6. 6. EY-Parthenon | Page 6 Showa era Heisei era During Heisei, Japan was dethroned as second largest economy by China… Note: (1) includes Germany, UK, France Source: World Bank, EY-P analysis GDP (current USD) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 USROW Japan China EU1GDP value GDP share Japan China US TrillionUSD GDPshare(%) Due to… • Japan’s weakened domestic demand and drop in exports • China’s manufacturing boom
  7. 7. EY-Parthenon | Page 7 …and also lost its status of having the most valuable companies in the world Source: Quartz, FXSSI, Charlie Bilello, EY-P analysis 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018 1 IBM Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (NTT) Microsoft PetroChina Apple 2 AT&T Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi General Electric Exxon Mobil Amazon 3 Exxon Industrial Bank of Japan NTT Docomo Microsoft Microsoft 4 Standard Oil Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Cisco ICBC Alphabet 5 Schlumberger Toyota Motors Walmart Walmart Berkshire Hathaway 6 Shell Fuji Bank Intel China Construction Bank Facebook 7 Mobil Daiichi Kangyo Bank Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (NTT) BHP Billiton Alibaba 8 Atlantic Richfield IBM Exxon Mobil HSBC Tencent 9 General Electric UFJ Bank Lucent Petrobras JP Morgan Chase 10 Eastman Kodak Exxon Deutsche Telecom Apple Johnson & Johnson Largest companies globally by market cap Heisei era
  8. 8. EY-Parthenon | Page 8 Growing financial instability led to later aged marriages and fewer births Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, World Bank, EY-P analysis Number of marriages (Japan) and fertility rate (total births per woman) by country 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Showa era Heisei era Thousandmarriages China US Japan 28 26 31 29 1990 Mean age of first marriage: 2017
  9. 9. EY-Parthenon | Page 9 30 30 28 26 25 27 28 26 22 20 18 18 17 16 15 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 50 55 60 67 72 76 79 83 86 87 86 84 81 76 73 71 68 63 58 54 50 47 44 4 5 5 6 7 9 11 12 15 18 22 26 29 33 36 37 37 37 39 39 38 36 35 12.1 11.5 11.2 10.8 9.8 8.5 7.4 6.6 5.8 4.8 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Showa era Heisei era Japan’s dwlindling workforce is now struggling to support ballooning elderly population Source: Mitsubishi UFJ, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau of Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Reuters 15 - 64 65+ 0 - 14 99 105 94 112 97 107 102 121 124 117 90 84 121 87 92 127127127 125 112 117 125123 Workers per beneficiary Total population by age bracket (Million people, ratio of workers to beneficiaries) Forecast Government grappling with… Severe labor shortages Increasing welfare costs Shrinking tax base
  10. 10. EY-Parthenon | Page 10 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Showa era Heisei era As a result, dual-income households becoming a necessity, and those without children becoming commonplace Note: (1) “Single income household” indicates those which husband is non-agricultural forestry employee and wife is unemployed; “Dual income” indicates non-agricultural employers for both husband and wife; (2) Includes three generation households Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY-P analysis Household composition and share of dual income households1 (millions of households, %) Single person Couple only Parent(s) with child(ren)2 37.5 39.4 41.2 40.8 44.5 45.7 46.3 48.0 48.6 50.1 50.4 50.4 49.9 50.4 33% 51% Single middle-aged men Elderly females Single person households will continue increasing, driven by: Dual-income household Single-income household Other
  11. 11. EY-Parthenon | Page 11 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Despite turmoil, Japan’s population remains largely middle class… Note: (1) Japan figures between 2010 – 2013 estimated based on data points from 2009 and 2014 Source: Credit Suisse, World Inequality Database, EY-P analysis Wealth shares by country (Household) USJapan Distribution of adults by wealth range (% of adults, USD) Bottom 90% Top 1% Bottom 90% Top 1% Over 1 million 100,000 – 1 million 10,000 – 100,000 Under 10,000 Japan’s1 bottom 90% still holds 48% more wealth than the top 1% In the US, bottom 90% now holds 10% less wealth than the top 1% 2018
  12. 12. EY-Parthenon | Page 12 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1990 2000 2010 2017 …and still largely homogenous Source: Pew Research, Federal Statistical Office Germany (for second-generation statistics), EY-P Share of population that is foreign born Japan Germany China US Including second- gen Including second- gen Australia
  13. 13. EY-Parthenon | Page 13 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 That said, “foreigners next door” grew to be common sight Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, EY-P analysis Foreign nationals (million people, share of total population), and share of marriages with at least one foreigner Showa era Heisei era Others Korean Chinese Share of foreign nationals in total population Share of marriages where bride or groom is foreigner Historically implanted wariness that immigration will threaten preservation of cultural identity Immigration Control Act (2005) tightened requirements for some visas, causing decline in international marriages Japanese public begins accepting bicultural people as “Japanese” (e.g. Naomi Osaka)
  14. 14. EY-Parthenon | Page 14 Last 6 years of Heisei era was colored with Abenomics… Source: EY-P analysis Arrow: Aggressive monetary policy • Deflation and uncompetitive yen limiting economic growth • Radical monetary easing by Bank of Japan and increasing inflation target to 2% • Need for short-term boost to the stagnant economy • A special budget of $135bn and increased spending on infrastructure • Need for modernized system past high-growth era • Improve on corporate governance • Make labor market flexible • Promote Deregulation Driver: Policies: Expansionary fiscal policy Structural Reform And Growth 1st Arrow 2nd Arrow 3rd Arrow Debt Deflation Demographics
  15. 15. EY-Parthenon | Page 15 …built on an exceptionally long and stable power base of second Abe administration Source: Nippon.com, Feel Japan, EY-P analysis State leaders by tenure in Heisei era 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Japan US China Germany President Trump (2017 – ) President Xi (2013 – ) Chancellor Merkel (2005 – ) Prime Minister Abe (2012 - ) Prime Minister Abe’s first term
  16. 16. EY-Parthenon | Page 16 So far Japan has been “eye of typhoon” in the global populist movement Note: (1) as of 2018 Source: Institute for Global Change, Bloomberg, The Guardian, NY Times, EY-P analysis Populism on the rise globally1… …but little demand for populist ideology in Japan Japan Low immigration Low crime rate Modest levels of inequality (rural areas well represented politically) Weak progressivism (little backlash) Relatively stable economy / employment ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Currently in power Party in parliament
  17. 17. EY-Parthenon | Page 17 In this relative calmness, did Abenomics work? Answer is mixed Note: Not an exhaustive list of metrics with government target; (1) 2017 figure Source: JETRO, OECD, Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Macro Advisors, FRED Economic Research, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY-P analysis 2012 2018 Govt target Labor force Million people 62.7 66.5 Unemployment rate % 8,802 23,098 Wages YoY % -0.40% 0.80% Inflation rate Annual growth rate % -0.05% 0.98% 2.00% (earliest possible time) Female labor force participation rate % 63% 69% Women in managerial positions % 11.1% 12.9% 30% (2020) Real GDP Trillion JPY (annual growth rate %) 499 (1.5%) 538 (0.87%) 2% growth (earliest possible time) Nikkei Closing price 8,802 23,098 Outbound FDI Billion USD 120 1691 Inbound GDI Trillion JPY 18.1 28.6 35 (2020) Competitiveness IMD World Competitiveness Ranking 27 25 Tourists and spend Million people 8 31 40 (2020) Trillion JPY 1.1 4.5 8 (2020) Good for economy / exceeding target Can be improved
  18. 18. EY-Parthenon | Page 18 While Japan Inc. has “globalized” through robust outbound FDI… Note: (1) 112 JPY = 1 USD Source: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, EY analysis Revenue from FDI vs exports1 (billion USD) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Exports from Japan Revenue Japanese companies’ overseas subsidiaries Benefits Ability to meet existing or growing demand in local market Lower cost✔ ✔
  19. 19. EY-Parthenon | Page 19 …potential growth rate has not recovered within Heisei Source: Bank of Japan Potential growth rate (y/y % change, contribution to the potential growth rate %) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total factor productivity Capital stock Hours worked Number of employed Potential growth rate ‘83 ‘85 ‘87 ‘89 ‘91 ‘93 ‘95 ‘97 ‘99 ‘01 ‘03 ‘05 ‘07 ‘09 ‘11 ‘13 ‘15 ‘17 Showa era Heisei era “Abenomics” Percent(%)
  20. 20. EY-Parthenon | Page 20 Heisei era marked a definitive shift in Japanese psyche Source: EY-P analysis High growth Confidence Homogeneity Maturity Insecurity Diversity Aged demographic Fell behind as economic superpower Untangled historical cross- shareholding culture Irregular workers spiked Fertility decreased Single-person households became commonplace Foreign nationals increased Earthquakes affected post-war peace Late 1980s… …to now
  21. 21. EY-Parthenon | Page 21 Agenda Heisei era through a kaleidoscope Growth levers • Innovation • Productivity • Gender diversity 1 2
  22. 22. EY-Parthenon | Page 22 In terms of commercializing innovation, IPO in Japan has been overshadowed by China Note: (1) Defined as a start-up valued at over $1bn Source: Research Institute of Economy, CB Insights, Trade, and Industry, University of Florida, Japan Exchange Group, EY analysis Number of IPOs by country 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 China US Japan Heisei era Number of “unicorns1” (2019) 1 6 9 13 17 40 80152 81 Japan S. Korea Germany India UK China US Innovation
  23. 23. EY-Parthenon | Page 23 Even more concerning is slow-down in basic research funding Source: World Bank, OECD, National Science Board, EY analysis R&D as a % of GDP Share of patents granted by US Patent & Trademark Office China US Japan EU S. Korea 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% China US Japan Germany S. Korea Australia Innovation
  24. 24. EY-Parthenon | Page 24 Innovation comes in many flavors. Japan needs to choose a model that works for them Source: EY-P analysis Number of unicorns (2019) Innovation Formula for innovation… 152 US Entrepreneurism Risk capital • VC 36% of GDP 81 China One party system • Agile regulation “Copy to make better” Entrepreneurism 9 Germany High quality SMEs Government support • Fraunhofer Institute Japan Post Heisei, what model works for Japan? 1
  25. 25. EY-Parthenon | Page 25 24.5 41 Will tapping into new labor cohorts improve Japan’s low productivity? Note: (1) 2013, latest data available Source: World Bank, OECD, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY analysis Average labor hours per week (2017) 26.1 34.2 Productivity (2017)Labor force by full-time / part-time (2017) 16.0 28.8 27.4 134.7 Japan US Germany $41.9 $64.1 $60.5 GDP / hours (USD) • Seniors • Women • Foreigners Regular worker avg Labor force avg Labor force avg Labor force avg 32.9 38.9Regular worker avg1 Labor force avg Lighter shade indicates part-time workers Productivity
  26. 26. EY-Parthenon | Page 26 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Irregular workers as they are today can be an easy clutch preempting productivity increase in long run Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Times Labor force by employment status and unemployment rate (million people, %) Showa era Heisei era Irregular Regular Irregular Regular Unemploymentrate 9/2015: Revised Worker Dispatch Act • New term limit of 3 years / person • To extend, must be permanent contract Productivity
  27. 27. EY-Parthenon | Page 27 On the surface, “womenomics” can be boasted as a success… Source: OECD, Congressional Research Service, EY-P analysis What is? Outcome 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 Germany Japan US OECD avg “Womenomics” Labor force participation rate (age 15 – 64) “Womenomics” 74% 69% 68% 64% Abenomics: 3rd Arrow Structural reforms, focusing on boosting economic growth through reforms and policies to encourage the participation and advancement of women in the Japanese workforce Policies include… Help with child care • Fix daycare shortages • Expand childcare leave benefits (in 2014, increased payment to new parents from 50% to 67% of their salary during the first six months of parental leave) Encouragement of female promotions • Support companies that encourage female employees to pursue both career and family through subsidies and tax measures • Encourage companies to disclose info concerning the promotion of women Concrete targets for female labor participation • Increase participation of women (aged 25 – 44) to 73% by 2020 • Increase the percentage of women in leadership positions from 10% to 30% by 2020 (goal has been since revised to ~13%) Gender diversity
  28. 28. EY-Parthenon | Page 28 $ $ …but women still face a severe disadvantage Source: OECD, Statistics Bureau of Japan, EY-P analysis Fewer benefits… More housework…Less money… Total labor (m people), irregular share Wage gap (2017) Hours : minutes spent on housework per day (2016 unless otherwise noted) 0.90 0.86 0.85 0.82 0.76 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Japan US Germany France Australia 2.3 2.9 2.5 2.5 0.7 3.7 5.2 4.4 4.1 3.7 2012 36.1, 20% 26.7, 54% 2018 37.1, 22% 29.7, 56% 3:44 0:41 4:03 2:30 2:30 2:52 2:15 4:26 5:11 3:44 (2006) (2010) Gender diversity
  29. 29. EY-Parthenon | Page 29 Japanese may be equally responsible for inequality influenced by unconscious bias Note: (1) Includes both undergraduate and graduate Source: OECD, Times Higher Education, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford, Tokyo University, University of Melbourne, Unesco, EY-P analysis Enrollment by gender1 (2017) 76% 66% 50% 49% 44% 37% 24% 34% 50% 51% 56% 63% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Tokyo University Tsinghua University Oxford University Harvard University Melbourne University LMU Munich Tertiary education by gender 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gross enrollment ratio (%) Gender diversity
  30. 30. EY-Parthenon | Page 30 Promote innovation To overcome post-Heisei challenges… Source: EY-P analysis Improve productivity Embrace diversity Government can help set innovation framework • Provide state-funded R&D facilities across country • Encourage competition between regions / R&D centers R&D clusters can help SMEs, which are often strapped for resources • Hidden gems likely to be revealed 1 2 Abolish dual track employment system • Allow flexible transition between full time and part time • Instill same work same pay principle 1 Revise evaluation system to reward output instead of facetime 2 Accelerate parity • Promote women • Invest in pipeline 1 Promote level playing field at all levels • Universities • Work • Home 2 …resulting in a revitalized, stimulated Japan for the next era

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