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Brexit and the UK
Economy
In 15 Charts
Quarterly growth and levels of GDP for the UK
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
350
370
390
410
430
450
470
490
2003Q3
2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
Real GDP for the UK, quarterly level (left hand scale, £ billion) and
quarterly growth (right hand scale, per cent)
Growth (%) Levels (£ billion)
Source: ONS
CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years:
September 2006 to September 2016
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12
May-13
Oct-13
Mar-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
Sep-16
Annual Rate of Consumer Price Inflation for the UK (per cent)
Source: ONS
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-Mar1971
Mar-May1972
May-Jul1973
Jul-Sep1974
Sep-Nov1975
Nov-Jan1977
Jan-Mar1978
Mar-May1979
May-Jul1980
Jul-Sep1981
Sep-Nov1982
Nov-Jan1984
Jan-Mar1985
Mar-May1986
May-Jul1987
Jul-Sep1988
Sep-Nov1989
Nov-Jan1991
Jan-Mar1992
Mar-May1993
May-Jul1994
Jul-Sep1995
Sep-Nov1996
Nov-Jan1998
Jan-Mar1999
Mar-May2000
May-Jul2001
Jul-Sep2002
Sep-Nov2003
Nov-Jan2005
Jan-Mar2006
Mar-May2007
May-Jul2008
Jul-Sep2009
Sep-Nov2010
Nov-Jan2012
Jan-Mar2013
Mar-May2014
May-Jul2015
Employment rates (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted, per cent of
population of working age
People Men Women
Male and Female Employment Rates in the UK from
1971 to 2016
Source: ONS
Non-UK nationals working in the UK labour market
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Apr-Jun1997
Oct-Dec1997
Apr-Jun1998
Oct-Dec1998
Apr-Jun1999
Oct-Dec1999
Apr-Jun2000
Oct-Dec2000
Apr-Jun2001
Oct-Dec2001
Apr-Jun2002
Oct-Dec2002
Apr-Jun2003
Oct-Dec2003
Apr-Jun2004
Oct-Dec2004
Apr-Jun2005
Oct-Dec2005
Apr-Jun2006
Oct-Dec2006
Apr-Jun2007
Oct-Dec2007
Apr-Jun2008
Oct-Dec2008
Apr-Jun2009
Oct-Dec2009
Apr-Jun2010
Oct-Dec2010
Apr-Jun2011
Oct-Dec2011
Apr-Jun2012
Oct-Dec2012
Apr-Jun2013
Oct-Dec2013
Apr-Jun2014
Oct-Dec2014
Apr-Jun2015
Oct-Dec2015
Apr-Jun2016
Non-UK nationals working in the UK, thousands, data is not
seasonally adjusted, source: Labour Force Survey
Total EU nationals Total non-EU nationals
Source: ONS
Growth Rates of Components of UK Aggregate Demand
before, during and after the global downturn
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.9
1.1
0.7
-0.8
0.4
-3.3
-1.5
-2.1
-1.1
0.4
0.3
0.8 0.8
1.0
0.5
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Consumption Government
consumption
Gross
Investment
Exports Imports Real GDP
Components of UK Aggregate Demand, quarterly % growth rates
Pre-downturn Downturn Post-downturn
Source: ONS
UK unemployment rates by region, seasonally
adjusted, June to August 2016
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.9
5.1
5.5
5.9
5.9
6.1
6.8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
South East
East
South West
Wales
East Midlands
Scotland
UK
North West
Northern Ireland
Yorkshire and The Humber
West Midlands
London
North East
Labour Force Survey Unemployment Rate (% of labour force, June-Aug 2016)
Source: ONS
Average UK house price, January 2005 to August
2016, not seasonally adjusted
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
240000
2005Jan
2005May
2005Sep
2006Jan
2006May
2006Sep
2007Jan
2007May
2007Sep
2008Jan
2008May
2008Sep
2009Jan
2009May
2009Sep
2010Jan
2010May
2010Sep
2011Jan
2011May
2011Sep
2012Jan
2012May
2012Sep
2013Jan
2013May
2013Sep
2014Jan
2014May
2014Sep
2015Jan
2015May
2015Sep
2016Jan
2016May
UK average house price (£s) source: Land Registry
Source: ONS
Productivity: Constant price GDP per hour worked
for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015
85
90
95
100
105
110
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015
Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK USA
Source: IMF
Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for UK
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q12006
Q22006
Q32006
Q42006
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Q22016
Quarterly growth of Real GDP and Real GDP per head for the UK,
indexed from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 = 100
Real GDP GDP Per Head
Source: ONS
Economic Growth for the UK and the EU(28)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Q22006
Q32006
Q42006
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Q22016
GDP growth rates (per cent) quarter-on-corresponding-quarter-of-
previous-year for the UK and the European Union (EU)
UK EU
Source: ONS
UK Bond Yields during 2016
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
04Jan16
11Jan16
18Jan16
25Jan16
01Feb16
08Feb16
15Feb16
22Feb16
29Feb16
07Mar16
14Mar16
21Mar16
28Mar16
04Apr16
11Apr16
18Apr16
25Apr16
02May16
09May16
16May16
23May16
30May16
06Jun16
13Jun16
20Jun16
27Jun16
04Jul16
11Jul16
18Jul16
25Jul16
01Aug16
08Aug16
15Aug16
22Aug16
29Aug16
05Sep16
12Sep16
19Sep16
26Sep16
03Oct16
10Oct16
17Oct16
24Oct16
Yields on UK gilts at selected maturities (per cent)
2-year 10-year 30-year
Source: HM Treasury
Sterling Exchange Rate (as an index number)
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
02Jan14
02Feb14
02Mar14
02Apr14
02May14
02Jun14
02Jul14
02Aug14
02Sep14
02Oct14
02Nov14
02Dec14
02Jan15
02Feb15
02Mar15
02Apr15
02May15
02Jun15
02Jul15
02Aug15
02Sep15
02Oct15
02Nov15
02Dec15
02Jan16
02Feb16
02Mar16
02Apr16
02May16
02Jun16
02Jul16
02Aug16
02Sep16
02Oct16
UK Exchange Rate Indices, 2nd Jan 2014 = 100
Sterling ERI €/£ $/£
Source: Bank of England
UK Trade Balances By Sector (% of GDP)
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
1998Q1
1998Q4
1999Q3
2000Q2
2001Q1
2001Q4
2002Q3
2003Q2
2004Q1
2004Q4
2005Q3
2006Q2
2007Q1
2007Q4
2008Q3
2009Q2
2010Q1
2010Q4
2011Q3
2012Q2
2013Q1
2013Q4
2014Q3
2015Q2
2016Q1
UK Trade Balances by Sector, % of GDP, Source: ONS
Financial services Other services Goods Trade balance
Source: ONS
UK Current Account Components (% of GDP)
-16.0
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
Components of the UK Current Account of the Balance of Payments,
(quarterly data, % of GDP)
Trade balance Primary income Secondary income Current account balance
Source: Bank of England
Contributions to CPI Inflation (%)
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan2011
Apr2011
Jul2011
Oct2011
Jan2012
Apr2012
Jul2012
Oct2012
Jan2013
Apr2013
Jul2013
Oct2013
Jan2014
Apr2014
Jul2014
Oct2014
Jan2015
Apr2015
Jul2015
Oct2015
Jan2016
Apr2016
Jul2016
Contributions to UK CPI Inflation (%)
Services (48%) Food and non-alcoholic beverages (10%) Electricity and gas (4%)
Fuels and lubricants (3%) Other goods(b) (35%)
Source: ONS

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15 Charts on the UK Economy (October 2016)

  • 1. Brexit and the UK Economy In 15 Charts
  • 2. Quarterly growth and levels of GDP for the UK -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 350 370 390 410 430 450 470 490 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 Real GDP for the UK, quarterly level (left hand scale, £ billion) and quarterly growth (right hand scale, per cent) Growth (%) Levels (£ billion) Source: ONS
  • 3. CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years: September 2006 to September 2016 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Annual Rate of Consumer Price Inflation for the UK (per cent) Source: ONS
  • 5. Non-UK nationals working in the UK labour market 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Apr-Jun1997 Oct-Dec1997 Apr-Jun1998 Oct-Dec1998 Apr-Jun1999 Oct-Dec1999 Apr-Jun2000 Oct-Dec2000 Apr-Jun2001 Oct-Dec2001 Apr-Jun2002 Oct-Dec2002 Apr-Jun2003 Oct-Dec2003 Apr-Jun2004 Oct-Dec2004 Apr-Jun2005 Oct-Dec2005 Apr-Jun2006 Oct-Dec2006 Apr-Jun2007 Oct-Dec2007 Apr-Jun2008 Oct-Dec2008 Apr-Jun2009 Oct-Dec2009 Apr-Jun2010 Oct-Dec2010 Apr-Jun2011 Oct-Dec2011 Apr-Jun2012 Oct-Dec2012 Apr-Jun2013 Oct-Dec2013 Apr-Jun2014 Oct-Dec2014 Apr-Jun2015 Oct-Dec2015 Apr-Jun2016 Non-UK nationals working in the UK, thousands, data is not seasonally adjusted, source: Labour Force Survey Total EU nationals Total non-EU nationals Source: ONS
  • 6. Growth Rates of Components of UK Aggregate Demand before, during and after the global downturn 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.7 -0.8 0.4 -3.3 -1.5 -2.1 -1.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.5 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Consumption Government consumption Gross Investment Exports Imports Real GDP Components of UK Aggregate Demand, quarterly % growth rates Pre-downturn Downturn Post-downturn Source: ONS
  • 7. UK unemployment rates by region, seasonally adjusted, June to August 2016 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 South East East South West Wales East Midlands Scotland UK North West Northern Ireland Yorkshire and The Humber West Midlands London North East Labour Force Survey Unemployment Rate (% of labour force, June-Aug 2016) Source: ONS
  • 8. Average UK house price, January 2005 to August 2016, not seasonally adjusted 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 240000 2005Jan 2005May 2005Sep 2006Jan 2006May 2006Sep 2007Jan 2007May 2007Sep 2008Jan 2008May 2008Sep 2009Jan 2009May 2009Sep 2010Jan 2010May 2010Sep 2011Jan 2011May 2011Sep 2012Jan 2012May 2012Sep 2013Jan 2013May 2013Sep 2014Jan 2014May 2014Sep 2015Jan 2015May 2015Sep 2016Jan 2016May UK average house price (£s) source: Land Registry Source: ONS
  • 9. Productivity: Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015 85 90 95 100 105 110 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015 Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK USA Source: IMF
  • 10. Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for UK 85 90 95 100 105 110 Q12006 Q22006 Q32006 Q42006 Q12007 Q22007 Q32007 Q42007 Q12008 Q22008 Q32008 Q42008 Q12009 Q22009 Q32009 Q42009 Q12010 Q22010 Q32010 Q42010 Q12011 Q22011 Q32011 Q42011 Q12012 Q22012 Q32012 Q42012 Q12013 Q22013 Q32013 Q42013 Q12014 Q22014 Q32014 Q42014 Q12015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42015 Q12016 Q22016 Quarterly growth of Real GDP and Real GDP per head for the UK, indexed from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 = 100 Real GDP GDP Per Head Source: ONS
  • 11. Economic Growth for the UK and the EU(28) -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 Q22006 Q32006 Q42006 Q12007 Q22007 Q32007 Q42007 Q12008 Q22008 Q32008 Q42008 Q12009 Q22009 Q32009 Q42009 Q12010 Q22010 Q32010 Q42010 Q12011 Q22011 Q32011 Q42011 Q12012 Q22012 Q32012 Q42012 Q12013 Q22013 Q32013 Q42013 Q12014 Q22014 Q32014 Q42014 Q12015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42015 Q12016 Q22016 GDP growth rates (per cent) quarter-on-corresponding-quarter-of- previous-year for the UK and the European Union (EU) UK EU Source: ONS
  • 12. UK Bond Yields during 2016 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 04Jan16 11Jan16 18Jan16 25Jan16 01Feb16 08Feb16 15Feb16 22Feb16 29Feb16 07Mar16 14Mar16 21Mar16 28Mar16 04Apr16 11Apr16 18Apr16 25Apr16 02May16 09May16 16May16 23May16 30May16 06Jun16 13Jun16 20Jun16 27Jun16 04Jul16 11Jul16 18Jul16 25Jul16 01Aug16 08Aug16 15Aug16 22Aug16 29Aug16 05Sep16 12Sep16 19Sep16 26Sep16 03Oct16 10Oct16 17Oct16 24Oct16 Yields on UK gilts at selected maturities (per cent) 2-year 10-year 30-year Source: HM Treasury
  • 13. Sterling Exchange Rate (as an index number) 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 02Jan14 02Feb14 02Mar14 02Apr14 02May14 02Jun14 02Jul14 02Aug14 02Sep14 02Oct14 02Nov14 02Dec14 02Jan15 02Feb15 02Mar15 02Apr15 02May15 02Jun15 02Jul15 02Aug15 02Sep15 02Oct15 02Nov15 02Dec15 02Jan16 02Feb16 02Mar16 02Apr16 02May16 02Jun16 02Jul16 02Aug16 02Sep16 02Oct16 UK Exchange Rate Indices, 2nd Jan 2014 = 100 Sterling ERI €/£ $/£ Source: Bank of England
  • 14. UK Trade Balances By Sector (% of GDP) -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 1998Q1 1998Q4 1999Q3 2000Q2 2001Q1 2001Q4 2002Q3 2003Q2 2004Q1 2004Q4 2005Q3 2006Q2 2007Q1 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1 2013Q4 2014Q3 2015Q2 2016Q1 UK Trade Balances by Sector, % of GDP, Source: ONS Financial services Other services Goods Trade balance Source: ONS
  • 15. UK Current Account Components (% of GDP) -16.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 Components of the UK Current Account of the Balance of Payments, (quarterly data, % of GDP) Trade balance Primary income Secondary income Current account balance Source: Bank of England
  • 16. Contributions to CPI Inflation (%) -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan2011 Apr2011 Jul2011 Oct2011 Jan2012 Apr2012 Jul2012 Oct2012 Jan2013 Apr2013 Jul2013 Oct2013 Jan2014 Apr2014 Jul2014 Oct2014 Jan2015 Apr2015 Jul2015 Oct2015 Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Contributions to UK CPI Inflation (%) Services (48%) Food and non-alcoholic beverages (10%) Electricity and gas (4%) Fuels and lubricants (3%) Other goods(b) (35%) Source: ONS