Improving fuel economy and reduction of emissions from road transport in Russia 17-18 June 2014, Moscow

1. © OECD/IEA 2012
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy
Alex Körner
International Energy Agency
alexander.koerner@iea.org

2. © OECD/IEA 2012
Content
 Methodology
 Fuel economy trends by country
 Car size/engine displacement/power trends
 Market shift vs. technology evolution
 Spotlight on Russia
 Conclusions

3. © OECD/IEA 2012
Global Fuel Economy Initiative
1. Analysis: Data gathering, modeling,
baseline development, projections
2. Evaluation of policy options
3. National strategy development,
organization of dialogues
4. Awareness rising, communication
“How can we maximize the benefits of fuel efficiency in LDVs on a
global scale, given the projected expansion of the global fleet?”

4. © OECD/IEA 2012
Definition of fuel economy
 GFEI Fuel economy definition:
Energy per distance travelled – Lge/100km
CO2 emission per distance travelled – gCO2/km

5. © OECD/IEA 2012
Methodology
How do we calculate national average fuel economy of new
cars?
 New vehicle registration data from Polk:
 Detailed vehicle sales numbers by brand, model, powertrain, fuel, power,
displacement etc…
 Vehicle fuel economy data, vehicle segment/class data are partly missing
 Manual input of missing data based on model/sales
sampling
 Satisfactory market coverage when CO2/FE data coverage >75% of total
sales
 Comparison and convergence with official national
CO2/fuel economy data when available (e.g. from EEA,
EPA)

6. © OECD/IEA 2012
Vehicle size classification
 GFEI analysis focuses on passenger
light duty vehicles, light commercial
vehicles are excluded for most of the
countries
 In Australia, Canada and US light
commercial vehicles are included
within passenger cars as this category
comprises the large pick-up segment
which are mostly used for passenger
transport

7. © OECD/IEA 2012
Test cycles
 Globally, the following test cycles to measure new vehicle
fuel economy are used:
 Europe: New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) – also used in
China , Australia,
 Japan: JC08
 US: FTP 75 – also used in Canada, Korea
 Within the GFEI analysis the different tested fuel
economy values are not harmonized
 GFEI results are in line with officially published data
 Harmonization is planned for the next data update

8. © OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel economy trends & market size
 Significant fuel economy improvement can be observed if policies are in place
 Size shift vs. technology evolution moderates Non-OECD improvement
 Growth of markets with worse fuel economy affects global fuel economy trend
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
France
Italy
Japan
India
Turkey
UnitedKingdom
Germany
Indonesia
Thailand
SouthAfrica
Chile
Argentina
Malaysia
Egypt
Ukraine
Brazil
SouthKorea
Russia
Mexico
China
Canada
USA
Australia
World
EU27
OECD
Non-OECD
Lgeper100km
2005
2008
2010
2011
70 000 000Sales 2011

9. © OECD/IEA 2012
Targets and reality
2005 2011 2030
8.1 7.0
7.5 7.5
8.0 7.2
8.0 4.0
2005 base year
2012 base year
2008
-3.0%
OECD
average
7.6
-2.2% -2.7%
-2.4%
average fuel economy (Lge/100km)
annual improvement rate (% per year)
Non-OECD
average
7.6
0.4% -0.6%
-0.1%
average fuel economy (Lge/100km)
annual improvement rate (% per year)
GFEI
target
-2.7%
Global
average
7.6
-1.7% -1.8%
-1.8%
required annual
improvement rate
(% per year)
average fuel economy (Lge/100km)
average fuel economy (Lge/100km)
annual improvement rate (% per year)
2050: Improve global FE by 50%
OECD: rates close to target
Non-OECD: little improvement
Global: Right trend at slow pace

10. © OECD/IEA 2012
Vehicle size evolution
 OECD shows a trend towards smaller cars
 In Non-OECD regions SUVs/trucks/vans are getting more popular
 Globally, vehicle segmentation seems to converge
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
OECD Non-OECD World
large truck
F
E
D
Medium truck
C
Small truck
B
A
Vehicle segemetation
Small
Large
Medium

11. © OECD/IEA 2012
Market by displacement/power
 Cars with medium sized engines, both with respect to displacement and power,
saw increasing market shares in OECD and Non-OECD regions
 Non-OECD cars have significantly smaller and less powerful engines
Note: global results for 2005 and 2008 are heavily affected by lack of data in Non-OECD
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
OECD Non-OECD World
>3200
2801-3200
2401-2800
2001-2400
1601-2000
1201-1600
801-1200
<800
unknown
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
OECD Non-OECD World
>200
151-200
101-150
71-100
51-70
<50
unknown
Engine displacement Engine power

12. © OECD/IEA 2012
OECD market dynamics
 Big markets with good fuel economy
shrunk significantly 2010-2011
 Big markets with worse fuel
economy grew significantly 2010-
2011
 Although fuel economy
improvement in most single markets
was remarkable, the fuel economy
improvement of the aggregated
OECD market slowed down due to
the internal market shift

13. © OECD/IEA 2012
Spotlight on Russia: Passenger car FE
 Passenger car fuel economy improved at an annual rate of about 1% between 2005 and
2011 in Russia, while the market for passenger cars grew about 9% per year
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2005 2008 2010 2011
Thousandvehiclessold
Lge/100km
PC FE
PC sales

14. © OECD/IEA 2012
Spotlight Russia: Vehicle sales by size
 In Russia an uptake of smaller cars can be seen over the years
 Medium and large SUVs are getting more popular at the same time
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2008 2010 2011
Large truck
F
E
D
Medium truck
C
Small truck
B
A

15. © OECD/IEA 2012
Vehicle efficiency pays back
 Analysis for the IEA “Technology Roadmap on Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles”
showed that fuel economy of passenger cars could be improved by 50% at
additional costs of around 3000€ per car

16. © OECD/IEA 2012
Conclusions
 Fuel economy improvement rate has accelerated in OECD markets
and is almost matching the GFEI target rate
 Fuel economy policy implentation (and GFEI actions) are fruitful
 Non-OECD markets do not show much progress mainly due to the
growing importance of larger classes
 Fuel economy policies (and more GFEI actions) are needed, especially to
limit vehicle size shift
 As Non-OECD markets become more and more important, global
fuel economy development increasingly depends on succesful
policy implementation in these regions
 Fuel econonomy policies pay back both at the consumer level and
at the macro – economic level

17. © OECD/IEA 2012
Thanks!

18. © OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel economy by segment
 Large vehicles showed significant fuel economy improvement in all regions
 Small vehicles improved fuel economy only marginally
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2005 2011 2005 2011 2005 2011
OECD Non-OECD World
Fueleconomy(Lge/100km)
Small
Medium
Large
Average