Foreign Policy Management/ Communications in Ukraine Anton Shynkaruk Rivne Institute of Slavonic Studies Center of Russian...
Global tendencies of public attention to Ukraine Several events in Ukraine attracted global public attention and media cov...
“ Unexpected ”  Events in International Relations <ul><li>The word,  crisis , comes from the Greek word,  krinein , which ...
International Relations Management <ul><li>Crisis management techniques in international relations  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>...
Foreign Policy Communications <ul><li>Diplomacy is a  channel  of contact for clarifying positions, probing for informatio...
<ul><li>Crisis Diplomacy (James L .  Richardson)  Emergent Diplomacy </li></ul><ul><li>Media role in foreign affairs incre...
Foreign Policy Communications :  Role of Media <ul><li>Media Problems in Foreign Affairs Crisis Management </li></ul><ul><...
Foreign Policy Communications :  Role of Media <ul><li>Media Problems in Foreign Affairs Crisis Management </li></ul><ul><...
<ul><li>Focus on social network analysis as core method for definition of events, their coverage and effectiveness of fore...
<ul><li>Focus on social network analysis as core method for definition of events, their coverage and effectiveness of fore...
<ul><li>Being  squeezed  between EU and Russia, Ukraine has the problem of definition of priority vector for foreign polic...
Foreign policy math =  Kuchma*(Yanukovitch + candy)-Putin=Medvedev <ul><li>November 2004 – celebration of 60-th anniversar...
Kuchma Yushchenko Yanukovitch <ul><ul><li>Yekhanurov </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tymoshenko </li></ul></ul>Yanukovitch II <...
N-dimensions Prisoners’ Dilemma of Ukrainian Foreign Policy <ul><li>crisis   of ideology, aims </li></ul><ul><li>Political...
N-dimensions Prisoners’ Dilemma of Ukrainian Foreign Policy
N-dimensions Prisoners’ Dilemma of Ukrainian Foreign Policy [1]   According to data of last 12 months from EMM News Explorer
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005 Yushchenko as main hero of Orange revolution made several visits to Moscow, Brussels, Stra...
[Post]Orange   Network visualization of Yushchenko tour
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005 Kyiv&Moscow: eternal strategic partners   Official visit to s how that Yushchenko and Puti...
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005 Kyiv&Moscow: eternal strategic partners   Official visit to s how that Yushchenko and Puti...
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005 “I am going to wake this great sleeping elephant and ride into EU” PACE session in  Strasb...
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005 “I am going to wake this great sleeping elephant and ride into EU” Photos PACE session in ...
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005   Davos: “Save on grafts, offer to nobody grafts in Ukraine” English  Times  marked the vi...
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005   Brussels: why so hurry? Visit to  Brussels - end of February 2005, though it was planned...
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005   Brussels: why so hurry? During Brussels visit NATO, Bush, “western family”, “obstacle” w...
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005   Brussels: why so hurry? During Brussels visit NATO, Bush, “western family”, “obstacle” w...
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005   Berlin: We are family Objective -  European integration  of Ukraine   Key events of visi...
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005   Berlin: We are family Objective -  European integration  of Ukraine   Key events of visi...
Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan   2005   Washington: Freedom knows no boundaries Photos Foreign media reaction USA   Visit to USA...
Gas Dispute – Wild Energy <ul><li>Gas dispute 2005 was first of all conflict between two business structures – Gazprom and...
Gas Dispute – Wild Energy Official First Channel (Russia) showed trainings of gas-cut to Ukraine (December 2005) and Taras...
Gas Dispute – Wild Energy Ukrainian theme in Russian, European and US press during gas crisis between Ukraine and Russia
Gas Dispute Degree Index
Wild Energy: Foreign Media
“ Wild Energy” Dormant Issue <ul><li>“ First Channel” News January 22, 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Ruslana Wild Energy 2006  </...
Gas Dispute – Wild Energy <ul><li>Network of relations of O. Shlapak – Yushchenko’s advisor who deals with energy  </li></ul>
[Echo of Dreams] PostOrange   2006 <ul><li>In 2004 Yanukovitch was selected as person who might replace Kuchma after elect...
PostOrange   2006  –  Yanukovitch <ul><li>Yanukovitch official foreign activity wasn’t so long (September 2006 – February ...
PostOrange  –  Yanukovitch ver sus Orange Berlin 03.10.2007 Yatsenyuk : First visits to assure that Ukraine is reliable pa...
PostOrange   2006  –  Yanukovitch
<ul><li>Issue of gas price was the first priority for Yanukovitch who wanted to “soft sharp edges”   and “revise gas deal ...
<ul><li>September 2006 Brussels   </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EU </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commission Ukraine-NATO </li></ul></...
<ul><li>22.09.2006 </li></ul><ul><li>31.10.2006 </li></ul>PostOrange   2006  –  Yanukovitch Between Moscow and Brussels 20...
<ul><li>Brussels  embarrassment s of Yanukovitch // Ukrajins’ka Pravda  15.09.2006  </li></ul><ul><li>Yanukovitch in Bruss...
<ul><li>Brussels  embarrassment s of Yanukovitch // Ukrajins’ka Pravda  15.09.2006  </li></ul>Yanukovitch tried to keep hi...
<ul><li>Yaap, where is your exit from NATO? </li></ul>Keep me tight, because I’ll attack him now… Brussels  embarrassment ...
Keep me tight, because I’ll attack him now… Brussels  embarrassment s of Yanukovitch // Ukrajins’ka Pravda  15.09.2006
<ul><li>Gush, when it gonna end? </li></ul>Brussels  embarrassment s of Yanukovitch // Ukrajins’ka Pravda  15.09.2006  If ...
<ul><li>Gush, when it gonna end? </li></ul>Brussels  embarrassment s of Yanukovitch // Ukrajins’ka Pravda  15.09.2006  If ...
<ul><li>At the end of November 2006 Yanukovitch met with  Putin  and declared that Kyiv is interested to participate  Comm...
PostOrange   2007  –  Yanukovitch Washington
PostOrange   2007  –  Yanukovitch Washington
<ul><li>Yanukovitch in foreign media was still unpopular .  As a result he appeared in situation when others made comments...
Yanukovitch replaces garnish // Ukrajins’ka Pravda  29.01.2007 Pinchuk introduced Koelho to Yanukovitch  Akhmetov got the ...
<ul><li>Few weeks before Yanukovitch came to Berlin Yushchenko also met with Merkel. She declared that Ukraine will get su...
PostOrange   2007  –  Yanukovitch Berlin Visit also included interviews for German media, however selection of edition was...
Yanukovitch got into story in Berlin // Ukrajins’ka Pravda 01 .0 3 .2007
EURO2012: Poland-Ukraine <ul><li>Michel Platini announces hosting countries of UEFA Cup 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>In April 20...
<ul><li>Style of Tymoshenko political behavior differs significantly from Yushchenko and Yanukovitch.  </li></ul><ul><li>B...
PostOrange  –  Tymoshenko As a prime-minister in 2005 she made the only foreign visit to Paris.  This 2-days visit showed ...
PostOrange  –  Tymoshenko Meetings with Ukrainians who worked abroad is a specific of Tymoshenko’s foreign visits. Being a...
PostOrange:   Tymoshenko  Via Brussels-Berlin  Brussels  23.11.2006
 
“ Berlinale &quot;  for Tymoshenko 24.11.2006
Tymoshenko in German Society of Foreign Policy and in Bundestag German-Ukrainian group
PostOrange  –  Tymoshenko Washigton Let my people go  // Ukrajins’ka Pravda 02.03.2007
 
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How to Change Future: 2008 Tymoshenko <ul><li>Q.:  When does Ukraine bargain to enter EU? </li></ul><ul><li>it is importan...
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Foreign policy communications in modern Ukraine

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Foreign policy communications in modern Ukraine

  1. 1. Foreign Policy Management/ Communications in Ukraine Anton Shynkaruk Rivne Institute of Slavonic Studies Center of Russian, Eastern European and Eurasian Research Stanford University
  2. 2. Global tendencies of public attention to Ukraine Several events in Ukraine attracted global public attention and media coverage (Ruslana won Eurovision, Orange revolution, Chernobyl-20, Soccer Championship, elections 2006 and parliament crisis 2007). ruslana orange revolution ukraine chernobyl
  3. 3. “ Unexpected ” Events in International Relations <ul><li>The word, crisis , comes from the Greek word, krinein , which means to decide . It refers, in other words, to a decisive phase in a sequence of events and was often used in the past to describe the phase in the course of an illness that meant a decisive turn for the better or the worse. </li></ul><ul><li>Turbulences in international relations: fragmentation and integration caused new forms of conflicts and new tasks for traditional foreign policy makers </li></ul><ul><li>Unexpected (emergent) events are wide spread in modern foreign affairs: analysis of trends of news and public attention showed conflicts and “unexpected” events to be important for foreign policy decision making. </li></ul><ul><li>Consequently these events should be planned, forecasted, and included into foreign policy making to avoid negative effects they could make on foreign policy strategy. </li></ul>
  4. 4. International Relations Management <ul><li>Crisis management techniques in international relations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>as reaction on humanitarian, military, technical, natural threats for national interests of a state and its citizens. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>in diplomatic activity to bargain, negotiate, reacting the public statements. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New dimension of CM in foreign affairs : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>system crisis of traditional IR actors that should react on new forms of diplomacy – “track two”, media, cyber (or digital), public and cultural diplomacies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>States no more the monopolies for foreign affairs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>adoption of management techniques used in TNCs, IOs, INGOs etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Internal political crises effects in foreign policy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>crises of ideology in foreign policy: 1) absence of ideology; 2) discredit of ideology; 3) ideology is unclear; 4) loss of ideology; 5) loss of actuality; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>crises of activity: 1) vagueness; 2) disparity to the plans; 3) inadequate activity; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>crises of aims: 1) unattainableness; 2) absence of aims; 3) lost opportunities. </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Foreign Policy Communications <ul><li>Diplomacy is a channel of contact for clarifying positions, probing for information, and convincing states and other actors to support one’s position [1] . </li></ul><ul><li>Diplomacy uses some CM techniques: issue management, media-management, internet-management, rumor management etc. which are part of Crisis Communications (CC) seen as “…dialog between the organization and its public prior to, during, and after the negative occurrence. The dialog details strategies and tactics are designed to minimize damage to the image of the organization…” [2] . Effective CC could both eliminate the crisis and effect positively on reputation of organization after crisis . </li></ul><ul><li>However CC in foreign policy could be controversial : demand of public attention is not always recommended, some events need to be hidden from public ( Wag the Dog principle ). </li></ul><ul><li>[1] Eytan Gilboa Real-Time Diplomacy: Myth and Reality </li></ul><ul><li>[ 2 ] Fearn-Banks K. Crisis communications: a casebook approach 3rd ed. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum, 2007. 384 p. </li></ul>
  6. 6. <ul><li>Crisis Diplomacy (James L . Richardson) Emergent Diplomacy </li></ul><ul><li>Media role in foreign affairs increased after first Iraq War and emergence of CNN effect . Today we’ve got GoogleEarth effect which opened several military secrets… </li></ul><ul><li>Today’s media act in many-to-many communications model but still they save traditional functions of Agenda-Setting , Framing and Priming . </li></ul>Foreign Policy Communications : Role of Media
  7. 7. Foreign Policy Communications : Role of Media <ul><li>Media Problems in Foreign Affairs Crisis Management </li></ul><ul><li>1. Reflections </li></ul><ul><li>“… during discussions or negotiations, the protagonists or delegations perform somewhat theatrically for the press corps, thereby apparently stiffening their positions and compounding the problems of mediation or confidence building ” </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;A crisis in one part of the world can easily be viewed elsewhere as irrelevant . The level of coverage (or refusal to cover) will often be a function of national interest and distance from the event. The lower the national interest and the greater the distance, the less likely it is that news organisations will have anything more than a passing interest in the developing story. There is no uniform media response that defies international borders and national identities”. </li></ul><ul><li>N.Goving </li></ul>
  8. 8. Foreign Policy Communications : Role of Media <ul><li>Media Problems in Foreign Affairs Crisis Management </li></ul><ul><li>2. Organizations </li></ul><ul><li>Process approaches and policy development. </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-event planning. </li></ul><ul><li>Partnerships with the public. </li></ul><ul><li>Listen for others’ concerns. </li></ul><ul><li>Exhibit honesty, candor, and openness. </li></ul><ul><li>Collaborate and coordinate with credible sources. </li></ul><ul><li>Meet the needs of the media and remain accessible. </li></ul><ul><li>Communicate with compassion, concern, and empathy. </li></ul><ul><li>Accept uncertainty and ambiguity. </li></ul><ul><li>Messages of self-efficacy. </li></ul><ul><li>Realize that crisis response is a narrative. </li></ul><ul><li>Be committed and able to deliver on the promise to be the first and best source of information. [1] </li></ul><ul><li>[1] Heath, Robert L. (2006) 'Best Practices in Crisis Communication: Evolution of Practice through Research', Journal of Applied Communication Research, 34:3, 245 - 248 </li></ul>
  9. 9. <ul><li>Focus on social network analysis as core method for definition of events, their coverage and effectiveness of foreign policy communications </li></ul>Foreign Policy Communications : Method International relations Global society is a very relational, ‘networky’ phenomenon. (H.Anheier and H.Katz) Roseneau (1995): global governance as a framework of horizontal relations; Castells’ (1996): actors increasingly form metanetworks at the transnational level and create a system of ‘decentralised concentration’, where a multiplicity of interconnected tasks takes place in different sites. International Communications Many-to-many communication model Internet means absence of central element in architecture of access and permission on joining Chaotic communications allow creation of weak links achieving various audiences, unlike strong links which lock public communications Network properties of news form glocalization effects when “the interpenetration of the global and local resulting in unique outcomes in different geographic areas.”
  10. 10. <ul><li>Focus on social network analysis as core method for definition of events, their coverage and effectiveness of foreign policy communications </li></ul>Foreign Policy Communications : Method <ul><li>Network Metaphora in International&Communication research </li></ul><ul><li>degree is simply a count of the number of different persons and organizations president, prime-minister or embassy communicates with; </li></ul><ul><li>betweenness measures the importance of mentioned actors as a link between other persons and organizations. It counts the number of the shortest communication chains throughout the network that include the actor; </li></ul><ul><li>closeness measures the ability of mentioned actors to send information out through the network or receive information back in. It reflects the average number of intermediaries needed to reach other actors or receive their information. </li></ul><ul><li>Hyperlink Social Network Analysis & Semantic Social Network Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Software support: NetDraw , Pajek , Issuecrawler . </li></ul>
  11. 11. <ul><li>Being squeezed between EU and Russia, Ukraine has the problem of definition of priority vector for foreign policy </li></ul>Ukrainian Foreign Policy
  12. 12. Foreign policy math = Kuchma*(Yanukovitch + candy)-Putin=Medvedev <ul><li>November 2004 – celebration of 60-th anniversary of Kyiv liberation in WWII </li></ul>
  13. 13. Kuchma Yushchenko Yanukovitch <ul><ul><li>Yekhanurov </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tymoshenko </li></ul></ul>Yanukovitch II <ul><ul><li>Tymoshenko II </li></ul></ul>Tarasyuk Yatsenyuk Ohryzko Gryshchenko 2005 2006 2007 2008 in April in January 2007 Ukrainian Foreign Policy Crises Zones triumvirate
  14. 14. N-dimensions Prisoners’ Dilemma of Ukrainian Foreign Policy <ul><li>crisis of ideology, aims </li></ul><ul><li>Political reform: according to new constitution MFA remains in President’s field, but appointment of minister depends highly on parliament </li></ul><ul><li>Political leaders provide their own “independent” foreign policy </li></ul><ul><li>National ideology abroad: in 2003 (ed. in 2006) appeared the program for improvement of national image abroad, embassies try to realize it but without systematic support </li></ul><ul><li>crisis of activity </li></ul><ul><li>Insignificant role of MFA in foreign policy decision making </li></ul><ul><li>Reformation of MFA: in 2005 appeared Dept. of foreign Ukrainians and Dept. for information management and image policy </li></ul><ul><li>Personnel: training, selection and career. </li></ul>Problems of Ukrainian Foreign Policy management
  15. 15. N-dimensions Prisoners’ Dilemma of Ukrainian Foreign Policy
  16. 16. N-dimensions Prisoners’ Dilemma of Ukrainian Foreign Policy [1] According to data of last 12 months from EMM News Explorer
  17. 17. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 Yushchenko as main hero of Orange revolution made several visits to Moscow, Brussels, Strasbourg, Berlin, Washington to inform political leaders abroad new position of Ukraine about integration into European organizations. Based on principle of Crisis Reaction, Yushchenko tried to work as a “message” with techniques of public opinion influence and lobbying officials to fix consequences of crisis and smooth transition into the before-crisis state [1] How I am going to wake this great sleeping elephant and ride into EU // The Times http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article508529.ece January 31, 2005 WEEK ON THE MOVE January 23: Kyiv, inaugurated as President. Met Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, who promised America’s support for his leadership January 24: Moscow , for Yushchenko’s first foreign trip as President, to smooth relations with President Putin of Russia January 25: Strasbourg , to deliver a speech to the Council of Europe January 27: Cracow , for the 60th anniversary of the Auschwitz liberation. Met Dick Cheney, the US Vice-President, and 44 other high-profile politicians January 28: Davos , for the World Economic Forum. Received a standing ovation after addressing world leaders and Bill Gates, the Microsoft billionaire [1]
  18. 18. [Post]Orange Network visualization of Yushchenko tour
  19. 19. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 Kyiv&Moscow: eternal strategic partners Official visit to s how that Yushchenko and Putin shake hands and declare good-neighbour relations Yushchenko offered new policy of Ukraine as more independent from Russian influence and appointed Tymoshenko as prime minister . Length of official meeting – 2 hours Russian media reaction
  20. 20. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 Kyiv&Moscow: eternal strategic partners Official visit to s how that Yushchenko and Putin shake hands and declare good-neighbour relations Yushchenko offered new policy of Ukraine as more independent from Russian influence and appointed Tymoshenko as prime minister . Length of official meeting – 2 hours Foreign media reaction
  21. 21. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 “I am going to wake this great sleeping elephant and ride into EU” PACE session in Strasbourg : visit was considered as less official, but with the symbolic elements “… formalize successful relation with EU…” Auschwitz : personal visit of Yushchenko - unofficial meeting with political leaders of Germany, Poland, USA, Israel Photos Foreign media reaction Strasbourg, Auschwitz, Davos
  22. 22. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 “I am going to wake this great sleeping elephant and ride into EU” Photos PACE session in Strasbourg : visit was considered as less official, but with the symbolic elements “… formalize successful relation with EU…” Auschwitz : personal visit of Yushchenko - unofficial meeting with political leaders of Germany, Poland, USA, Israel
  23. 23. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 Davos: “Save on grafts, offer to nobody grafts in Ukraine” English Times marked the visit of Yushchenko to Switzerland completes his “ hectic tour of Europe ”. Active lobbying of theme of Ukraine integration in EU by the Ukrainian president was perceived with caution. Edition described position of Europe as “ careful avoiding ”, creating attempts to foist to Ukraine a 'plan from ten points' on strengthening of links. Work of Ukrainian delegation had dual impression. If at the level of the state Ukraine was represented well enough, at the level of business – no.
  24. 24. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 Brussels: why so hurry? Visit to Brussels - end of February 2005, though it was planned as part of the first European tour of Yushchenko. Then a visit was cancelled on technical reasons (but was probably related to the vagueness of EU position and also absence of operating government in Ukraine). After Tymoshenko became prime minister at the beginning of February 2005 Yushchenko got pro-European government oriented on economic reforms. As a result the process of entry of Ukraine to WTO and NATO became the objective of February visit. For this purpose meetings were planned with US president G. Bush, leaders of EU J. M. Barroso and X. Solana. As Financial Times noted it allowed again to confirm intention of Ukraine to join WTO already in 2005 and to begin negotiations about EU integration in 2008 . However, visit was accompanied by ambiguous estimations of Yushchenko’s policy both European leaders and Ukrainian ministers. The first vice-prime O.Rybachuk once or twice declared that Ukraine will claim EU entry very soon (if not in a few days, may be few months). However, commissar of EC B. Ferrero-Waldner during the visit of Yushchenko to Brussels tried to explain: it is no need to hurry, be satisfied with Action Plan taking into account those ten points which must approach Ukraine to EU, do some work, then we will react properly.
  25. 25. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 Brussels: why so hurry? During Brussels visit NATO, Bush, “western family”, “obstacle” were basic categories. In particular, the category of NATO was important for the concepts of the related to Action Plan Ukraine-EU. Category “western family” was most problematic category, related to the concept “obstacle”, “search of close ties”. Russia also save special influence on interrelations of Ukraine and EU. For example, such category as “open for Ukraine”, mentioned in connection with position of NATO in relation to Ukraine, depends on Russian position. Photos Foreign media reaction Brussels
  26. 26. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 Brussels: why so hurry? During Brussels visit NATO, Bush, “western family”, “obstacle” were basic categories. In particular, the category of NATO was important for the concepts of the related to Action Plan Ukraine-EU. Category “western family” was most problematic category, related to the concept “obstacle”, “search of close ties”. Russia also save special influence on interrelations of Ukraine and EU. For example, such category as “open for Ukraine”, mentioned in connection with position of NATO in relation to Ukraine, depends on Russian position. Photos
  27. 27. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 Berlin: We are family Objective - European integration of Ukraine Key events of visit were speech before Bundestag and meeting with Germany Minister of foreign affairs J. Fischer Visa scandal: reaction of Yushchenko Berliner Zeitung warns that Ukraine will remain what it calls &quot;a very difficult case &quot; for German politics for the foreseeable future. It believes Germany will always define its interests first and foremost in relation to Russia, not least because of its dependence on Russian fuel. Photos Foreign media reaction Berlin
  28. 28. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 Berlin: We are family Objective - European integration of Ukraine Key events of visit were speech before Bundestag and meeting with Germany Minister of foreign affairs J. Fischer Visa scandal: reaction of Yushchenko Berliner Zeitung warns that Ukraine will remain what it calls &quot;a very difficult case &quot; for German politics for the foreseeable future. It believes Germany will always define its interests first and foremost in relation to Russia, not least because of its dependence on Russian fuel. Photos
  29. 29. Yushchenko “Bistro” Plan 2005 Washington: Freedom knows no boundaries Photos Foreign media reaction USA Visit to USA in April 2005 completed series of foreign visits related to OR. USA visit was estimated as “ historical ” and “ triumphal ”, symbolizing the fight of Ukrainian people for democracy (little Ukrainian girl N. Ovchar, rescuing her sister from fire and getting strong burns was sent to USA before Yushchenko visit. Yushchenko met with her and it created an additional information support for main ideas of Yushchenko). However, this visit passed on background of death of Pope John Paul ІІ , that distracted attention of press and public.
  30. 30. Gas Dispute – Wild Energy <ul><li>Gas dispute 2005 was first of all conflict between two business structures – Gazprom and Naftogaz – although they have strong links with governments. </li></ul><ul><li>We should admit that Gazprom had made huge information campaign against Ukraine in general, not Naftogaz. </li></ul><ul><li>The main information channel – 1 st Channel – official TV channel. </li></ul>Gas crisis had 4 stages of issue management, it means that at least one organization planned its action better then other: Stage 1 origin – potential issue - price for gas and transit conditions issue arises when organization attaches significance to a perceived problem that is a consequence of a developing political or social trend. Issue begins to gain definition when organization plans to do something that has a consequence for another organization… Stage 2 – emerging issue – Ukraine steal gas from Europe – increasing pressure on organization to accept the issue. In most cases it is a result of activity of interested groups who are trying to push their own issue… Stage 3 – organization – official statements of political leaders, however Yushchenko was less active – public or other groups should be considered as dynamic. Increased public attention motivates leaders to become a part emerging conflict that also could mount the pressure. To affect the issue becomes enduring because of its intensity. Stage 4 – resolution dormant issue – Ukraine and Russia reached deal but issue remained (Black Sea fleet, problem of Russian language etc.)
  31. 31. Gas Dispute – Wild Energy Official First Channel (Russia) showed trainings of gas-cut to Ukraine (December 2005) and Tarasyuk reaction. Starring: Fradkov, Medvedev, Miller, Kuprijanov, Yekhanurov, Ivchenko. In episodes - Putin, Yushchenko
  32. 32. Gas Dispute – Wild Energy Ukrainian theme in Russian, European and US press during gas crisis between Ukraine and Russia
  33. 33. Gas Dispute Degree Index
  34. 34. Wild Energy: Foreign Media
  35. 35. “ Wild Energy” Dormant Issue <ul><li>“ First Channel” News January 22, 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Ruslana Wild Energy 2006 </li></ul>“ First Channel” Odnako June 06, 2006 Wild Energy English
  36. 36. Gas Dispute – Wild Energy <ul><li>Network of relations of O. Shlapak – Yushchenko’s advisor who deals with energy </li></ul>
  37. 37. [Echo of Dreams] PostOrange 2006 <ul><li>In 2004 Yanukovitch was selected as person who might replace Kuchma after elections, he went with several foreign visits but it turned out that he had problems with public appearances in Europe and USA. He was accepted as an official representative no more. </li></ul><ul><li>Besides he had tense relations with MFA and diplomats (in 2004 MFA was among the first government structures supporting Yushchenko). </li></ul><ul><li>In 2006 Yanukovich became more attentive to the skilled providing of foreign policy activity to disperse image of falsifier of elections and strangler of democracy. </li></ul><ul><li>He formed “shadow MFA” with people who worked before in MFA and became his basic advisers: </li></ul><ul><li>K.Gryshchenko worked as basic moderator between Yanukovich and West. </li></ul><ul><li>A. Zlenko which got the title of &quot;adviser on special international questions&quot; did not find what to do Yanukovich camp. </li></ul><ul><li>Two more advisers A . Fialko and A . Orel worked before in Kuchma’s administration. Fialko had pro-western views, while Orel – prorussian. </li></ul>
  38. 38. PostOrange 2006 – Yanukovitch <ul><li>Yanukovitch official foreign activity wasn’t so long (September 2006 – February 2007) and could be estimated as visits of executive power representative. He was more successful in Russia, while in Europe and USA his visits weren’t covered enough or replaced with opinions of national politicians ( in Germany and USA ). </li></ul><ul><li>Network analysis of media showed that mainly Yanukovitch visits before political crisis 2007 were about problems of gas transit to Europe, although Yanukovitch several times used foreign visits for internal political fight and made controversial political statements which caused misunderstanding both in Yushchenko “camp” (Tarasyuk, Grytsenko) and in EU . </li></ul>
  39. 39. PostOrange – Yanukovitch ver sus Orange Berlin 03.10.2007 Yatsenyuk : First visits to assure that Ukraine is reliable partner Russia , EU , USA April 2007 USA, France March 2007 Tbilisi 03.2007 Meeting with Merkel Cautious economic estimations blackmail Gas takeoff Candidate for WTO Gazprom Berlin 28.02.2007 Davos 25.01.2007 Brussels, Berlin 11.2006 Minsk 11.2006 Rise Cheyney Against NATO Washington 03.12.2006 Berlin 03.10.2006 Yanukovitch negotiations Gas hook Price for gas Boyko Moscow 22.09.2006 Brussels 21.09.2006 NATO Pro-Russian Unreadiness negotiations Brussels 14.09.2006 EurAzES negotiations Yushchenko-Putin commission Putin Danger USA price Sochi 16.08.2006 NATO Most important economic project Strategic pipeline Promising beginning Krynica 06.08.2006 Tymoshenko Yushchenko Yanukovitch
  40. 40. PostOrange 2006 – Yanukovitch
  41. 41. <ul><li>Issue of gas price was the first priority for Yanukovitch who wanted to “soft sharp edges” and “revise gas deal with Russia” . </li></ul><ul><li>This issue was often discussed not by Yanukovitch himself but his energetic minister Y.Boyko. And these visits were sometimes so fast that even O.Diomin – Ukrainian ambassador in Russia – didn’t know about them. </li></ul><ul><li>In spite of negotiations Russian media still noted that deal between Yanukovitch, Putin and Miller was very conditional as gas price depended more on Central Asia, not Russia . “Hopes of Yanukovitch for good result were doomed to fail from the very beginning” – wrote Izvestia ( official edition and part of Gazprom-media group ) </li></ul>PostOrange 2006 – Yanukovitch
  42. 42. <ul><li>September 2006 Brussels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EU </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commission Ukraine-NATO </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Statement: Ukraine not ready for joining NATO </li></ul><ul><li>European media verdict – prorussian </li></ul><ul><li>September 21 – statement that Ukraine still want to have partnership with EU; reliable partner in energy transit </li></ul><ul><li>September 2006 Moscow </li></ul><ul><li>September 22 – visit to Putin </li></ul><ul><li>Yanukovitch - “Ukraine is predictable partner” </li></ul><ul><li>Russian media verdict: independent politician who could form positive relations between Ukraine and Russia </li></ul>PostOrange 2006 – Yanukovitch Between Moscow and Brussels
  43. 43. <ul><li>22.09.2006 </li></ul><ul><li>31.10.2006 </li></ul>PostOrange 2006 – Yanukovitch Between Moscow and Brussels 20.09.2006
  44. 44. <ul><li>Brussels embarrassment s of Yanukovitch // Ukrajins’ka Pravda 15.09.2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Yanukovitch in Brussels searched the exit from NATO </li></ul>PostOrange 2006 – Yanukovitch - Brussels Hello, my name is Victor! Let’s go Victor I’ll eurointegrate you
  45. 45. <ul><li>Brussels embarrassment s of Yanukovitch // Ukrajins’ka Pravda 15.09.2006 </li></ul>Yanukovitch tried to keep himself in hands Could somebody awake them?
  46. 46. <ul><li>Yaap, where is your exit from NATO? </li></ul>Keep me tight, because I’ll attack him now… Brussels embarrassment s of Yanukovitch // Ukrajins’ka Pravda 15.09.2006
  47. 47. Keep me tight, because I’ll attack him now… Brussels embarrassment s of Yanukovitch // Ukrajins’ka Pravda 15.09.2006
  48. 48. <ul><li>Gush, when it gonna end? </li></ul>Brussels embarrassment s of Yanukovitch // Ukrajins’ka Pravda 15.09.2006 If to be attentive it is possible to see in the mirror the ghost of kuchmism – premier advisor A.Orel
  49. 49. <ul><li>Gush, when it gonna end? </li></ul>Brussels embarrassment s of Yanukovitch // Ukrajins’ka Pravda 15.09.2006 If to be attentive it is possible to see in the mirror the ghost of kuchmism – premier advisor A.Orel
  50. 50. <ul><li>At the end of November 2006 Yanukovitch met with Putin and declared that Kyiv is interested to participate Common Economic Space </li></ul><ul><li>After this he went to Washington to meet with D.Cheney , K.Rice and Hadley . </li></ul><ul><li>Russian media covered the visit as an attempt to ruin negative stereotype Yanukovitch got after OR. “Trip to USA should add him score in the battle with president and to prove that he also for democracy and also to inform Americans that he was the person who represented the real power in Ukraine” - Kommersant . </li></ul><ul><li>But estimation of US media was much lower and covered it as mainly working visit , that didn’t attract much public attention. Cheney and Rice only made official declarations and Ukrainian diaspora only organized business forum and demanded premier’s explanations of last political actions. </li></ul><ul><li>Yanukovitch advisor K.Gryshchenko , instead of officials of MFA, was engaged in organization of Yanukovich visit to USA in autumn 2006. </li></ul>PostOrange 2007 – Yanukovitch Washington President’s Directives
  51. 51. PostOrange 2007 – Yanukovitch Washington
  52. 52. PostOrange 2007 – Yanukovitch Washington
  53. 53. <ul><li>Yanukovitch in foreign media was still unpopular . As a result he appeared in situation when others made comments and they had much bigger effect (as it happened in Davos in January 2007) . </li></ul><ul><li>New gas-conflict exploded between Gazprom and Belarus before his visit , that gave Gazprom additional chance to name Ukraine as well as Belarus “ blackmailers of Europe and Russia ” and thus to make doubtful gas security of Europe . After all such statements resulted in cautious estimations of economic development of Ukraine before WTO joining . </li></ul>PostOrange 2007 – Yanukovitch - Davos
  54. 54. Yanukovitch replaces garnish // Ukrajins’ka Pravda 29.01.2007 Pinchuk introduced Koelho to Yanukovitch Akhmetov got the first place to see Yanukovitch better
  55. 55. <ul><li>Few weeks before Yanukovitch came to Berlin Yushchenko also met with Merkel. She declared that Ukraine will get support from Germany to develop free trade zone between EU and Ukraine </li></ul><ul><li>In 20 days Yanukovitch came to Berlin – working visit with declarations that he had cooperation with Yushchenko in foreign policy </li></ul><ul><li>Frankfurter Allegemeine Zeitung : Yanukovitch: from marionette to leader </li></ul><ul><li>The newspaper is considered as pro-Merkel and CDU (ruling party) </li></ul><ul><li>“ Victor Yanukovitch has a lot of staff that post-Soviet grandees like to have : personal photographer who regards that during kissing the kids Yanukovitch was in the center, biographer who glorifies his labor and finally title of professor he easily received when he was the governor of Donets’k region . Besides he has political designer from West, who consulted US presidents from Ford to Bush as well as Philippines dictator Marcos and leader of Angola rebels Sawimbi ...&quot;. </li></ul><ul><li>Ukrainian premier tries to get rid of his past as “dependence of corrupted oligarchs and Russian president Putin created his image as remote control laughing-stock” </li></ul>PostOrange 2007 – Yanukovitch Berlin Visit also included interviews for German media, however selection of edition wasn’t successful . For example, he planned an interview for Die Welt , that few days before published positive article of A.Rahr, German expert of Eastern Europe . Also he met with Deutsche Welle – media-channel to promote Germany abroad . Ukrajins’ka Pravda noticed that it would be more effective to make interview for Frankfurter Allegemeine , but Ukrainian embassy answered that right for interview got edition that asked first, i.e. Die Welt. Meanwhile FA saved critical voices : Yanukovitch speaks what he wants to hear, and his visit to Berlin just adds new unclear questions about his government.
  56. 56. PostOrange 2007 – Yanukovitch Berlin Visit also included interviews for German media, however selection of edition wasn’t successful . For example, he planned an interview for Die Welt , that few days before published positive article of A.Rahr, German expert of Eastern Europe . Also he met with Deutsche Welle – media-channel to promote Germany abroad . Ukrajins’ka Pravda noticed that it would be more effective to make interview for Frankfurter Allegemeine , but Ukrainian embassy answered that right for interview got edition that asked first, i.e. Die Welt. Meanwhile FA saved critical voices : Yanukovitch speaks what he wants to hear, and his visit to Berlin just adds new unclear questions about his government.
  57. 57. Yanukovitch got into story in Berlin // Ukrajins’ka Pravda 01 .0 3 .2007
  58. 58. EURO2012: Poland-Ukraine <ul><li>Michel Platini announces hosting countries of UEFA Cup 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>In April 2007 Poland and Ukraine were selected to host EURO2012 – another unexpected event in Ukrainian foreign policy. </li></ul><ul><li>Ukrainian delegation headed by Yushchenko arrived to Cardiff for procedure of announcement. Decision for Poland and Ukraine was a surprise and had a “political background”: impulse for two states – new EU member and new neighbor. </li></ul><ul><li>But… political crises effected harmfully the process of preparation for EURO2012, if Poland receives support from EU, Ukraine should find investments itself… </li></ul>Telegraph.co.uk: Drag queen starts Eurovision 'Cold War‘
  59. 59. <ul><li>Style of Tymoshenko political behavior differs significantly from Yushchenko and Yanukovitch. </li></ul><ul><li>Being blamed with populism she realizes the significance of modern media recourses to influence not only internal but also international public. </li></ul><ul><li>In 2005 Polish edition of Playboy nominated her in Top10. </li></ul><ul><li>Her personal web-site has a huge archive of videos, audios, photos with access in 3 languages. </li></ul><ul><li>Each foreign visit since 2002 was covered in photos on her web-site. </li></ul><ul><li>Since 2002 she participated in Internet-conferences for Ukrainian public. </li></ul><ul><li>As a leader of opposition in 2006-07 she met with policy-makers in Europe and USA. </li></ul><ul><li>In 2007 she went to Italy to meet with Ukrainians who work there illegally. </li></ul>PostOrange: We’ll be the first Tymoshenko for ELLE Magazine May 2005 Note: Search request for Russia or Putin on her web-site gave zero-result, but news reports about her activity in Russia are on the site
  60. 60. PostOrange – Tymoshenko As a prime-minister in 2005 she made the only foreign visit to Paris. This 2-days visit showed that she had an influence as a political person. However in 2005 she didn’t work out yet her foreign policy strategy, but the visit showed her priorities – to establish relations with “EU engine”: France and Germany. “ Slav Madonna” was popular among media and made interviews for national TV and leading papers, Figaro published almost 1-page interview with her, even free paper Metro wrote few words about visit. She was the first Ukrainian PM who met French President. Tymoshenko also met with Ukrainians who live in France. In June 2005 also V. Yushchenko and P. Poroshenko visited Paris, Tymoshenko organized so called Ukrainian Days in France. But, according to diplomatic rules so many events during short period could cause at least misunderstanding, “it needs to start from minister for foreign affairs, then President in a month and later PM who will fill in the agreements made by both presidents”
  61. 61. PostOrange – Tymoshenko Meetings with Ukrainians who worked abroad is a specific of Tymoshenko’s foreign visits. Being a representative of state responsible that many Ukrainians went abroad for illegal work she met with Ukrainians in France (2005) and in Italy (2007)
  62. 62. PostOrange: Tymoshenko Via Brussels-Berlin Brussels 23.11.2006
  63. 64. “ Berlinale &quot; for Tymoshenko 24.11.2006
  64. 65. Tymoshenko in German Society of Foreign Policy and in Bundestag German-Ukrainian group
  65. 66. PostOrange – Tymoshenko Washigton Let my people go // Ukrajins’ka Pravda 02.03.2007
  66. 68. How to Change Future: 2008 Tymoshenko <ul><li>At the end of 2007 Tymoshenko managed to form the government, that meant change of foreign policy dynamics. </li></ul><ul><li>V. Ohryzko became the minister of foreign affairs in new cabinet. </li></ul><ul><li>H. Nemyria – PM foreign policy advisor </li></ul><ul><li>Message to EU: Ukraine itself should give sign to EU that we decided to integrate. Louder this signal is, greater will be the echo… </li></ul><ul><li>Basic problem remains – energy dependence and gas prices in relations with Russia ( Tymoshenko priority #1 ) </li></ul>“ Ukrainian Breach” in foreign policy
  67. 69. How to Change Future: 2008 Tymoshenko <ul><li>Q.: When does Ukraine bargain to enter EU? </li></ul><ul><li>it is important to build in Ukraine those norms and rules accepted by EU. New program of government …includes forming of internal policy so that eurointegration is possible. </li></ul><ul><li>Q.: Both Ukraine and EU in a great deal depend on deliveries of Russian energy supply. Is it possible to low down this dependence? </li></ul><ul><li>For Ukraine question of diversification of energy supplies is the question of political independence , this the question of our freedom. Therefore all projects which are related to power diversification for Ukraine simultaneously get in the system of national priorities of EU. </li></ul><ul><li>It means that we can be good partners … system of gradual integration in different spheres already obvious and Ukraine is a desirable and very necessary partner. </li></ul><ul><li>Q.: And what benefits can Ukraine extract from the entry in NATO? </li></ul><ul><li>For Ukraine it is very complex question …it divides Ukrainian society. </li></ul><ul><li>It needs to pass the way we have with NATO – way of cooperation. And more – it is only possible to decide through an all-Ukrainian referendum, what system of collective national security Ukraine will be in. And being now in the European Union, we conduct a dialog about participation of Ukraine in construction of European system of security. </li></ul><ul><li>Q.: NATO plans of Ukraine are jealously considered in Russia. </li></ul><ul><li>Russia has the very vast program of collaboration with NATO. And for Russia this collaboration with NATO is part of policy of security. </li></ul>
  68. 70. Nemyria <ul><li>First degree relations </li></ul><ul><li>European Commission </li></ul><ul><li>EU </li></ul><ul><li>Federal Trade Commission </li></ul><ul><li>NATO </li></ul><ul><li>Vladimir Putin </li></ul><ul><li>Gazprom </li></ul><ul><li>Yulia Tymoshenko </li></ul><ul><li>RIA Novosti </li></ul><ul><li>WTO </li></ul>
  69. 71. Ohryzko First degree links European Commission EU NATO Scheffer Vladimir Putin Gazprom Kouprianov Victor Yushchenko Yulia Tymoshenko RIA Novosti
  70. 72. Yatsenyuk First degree links Viktor Yushchenko (80) Yulia Tymoshenko (68) Jaap de Hoop Scheffer (61) Sergei Lavrov (51) George W. Bush (47) Richard Lugar (47) Mikhail Saakashvili (46) Barack Obama (46) Vladimir Putin (20) Nino Burdzhanadze (10) Dmitry Medvedev (3) Condoleezza Rice (3) Volodymyr Ohryzko (3) Sergei A. Markov (3) Angela Merkel (2) William Taylor (2) Sergueï Kouprianov (2) Alexey Miller (2) Andris Piebalgs (2) NATO (68) OSCE (56) European Union (8) Gazprom (7) World Trade Organization (3) UN Security Council (3) World Economic Forum (2) European Commission (2)
  71. 73. Gas Déjà Vu… 2008 <ul><li>04.03.2008 </li></ul>17.02.2008 04.03.2008 10.03.2008 04.03.2008
  72. 74. Timeline <ul><li>Where was the MFA? </li></ul><ul><li>In 2005 dispute MFA had some politically motivated statements about Russia as empire that will fail (A.Buteyko) and reaction of S.Lavrov </li></ul><ul><li>In 2008 … </li></ul>Ukrainian cabinet refused to execute the gas agreements Viktor Yushchenko had reached with Vladimir Putin. The government doesn't want to pay in advance for 2008 and it opposes the creation of Naftogaz-Gazprom venture that would sell gas in Ukraine. Yulia Tymoshenko stated that Ukraine doesn’t need any additional newly created joint ventures. March 6, 2008 Gas supplies where restored after Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and Naftogaz Ukrainy CEO Oleh Dubyna agreed during negotiations by phone on a settlement to the crisis with gas supplies to Ukraine March 5, 2008 Gazprom cut it's shipments to Ukraine by 25% (a day later with another 25%) March 3, 2008 Gazprom threatened to reduce the supply of natural gas to Ukraine from March 3, 2008, unless the pre-payment for 2008 had been paid. The Ukraine government said it paid the gas bill for 2007 but still has refused to pay the bill for 2008. Gazprom spokesman claimed that 1.9 billion cubic metres of gas deliveries worth about 600 million dollars still wasn't paid end of February 2008 Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yushchenko announced an agreement on the gas issue February 12, 2008 Gazprom warned Ukraine again it will reduce its gas supplies on January 11, 2008 if a US$1.5 billion gas debt would not be paid January 5, 2008 Gazprom once again threatened to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine October 2, 2007
  73. 76. Ukrainian experts on Tymoshenko visit to Moscow <ul><li>V.Karasiov </li></ul><ul><li>… Probably illness of Tymoshenko neutralized her energetics and influence in negotiations . It was hardly to notice her persistence and negotiation shrewdness . </li></ul><ul><li>O.Medvedev </li></ul><ul><li>… impossibility of independent statements in Moscow . The whole visit looked like produced by Russian side to show lack of independence of Ukrainian premiere in negotiations . On the contrary, achievements of Yushchenko looked much better and important than “technical” trip of Tymoshenko . </li></ul><ul><li>V.Nebozhenko </li></ul><ul><li>If to compare tripe of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko it is possible to note that president’s trip was covered by both pro- and anti-Putin Russian media that gave sometimes controversial but in general objective information . In Tymoshenko case it is not so clear. It is full of mysteries and not much covered . </li></ul><ul><li>V.Kornilov </li></ul><ul><li>It is possible to say that it was acquainting visit as it was her first visit to Russia as premiere . And it is hardly to expect any Ukrainian breach on Russian front in the nearest future </li></ul>

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