This TechVision 2020 report from Frost & Sullivan identifies the top 50 emerging technologies that will impact the world over the next decade. The technologies are spread across nine technology clusters. The report is the result of research and analysis conducted by over 50 analysts across six continents, including interviews with innovators and developers. It provides details on each technology's R&D footprint, impact timeline, patenting and funding trends to identify those most poised for widespread adoption and commercialization. The top 50 technologies selected have the highest potential to be widely launched and commercially successful by 2020.
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1. Top 50 Technologies
TechVision 2020 Program
Beatrice Shepherd
Vice President Frost & Sullivan CEE & Russia
Moscow, 2012
2. Introduction to Technology Vision 2020 by Frost & Sullivan
This TechVision 2020 report is the flagship research from Technical Insights (TI), the
Technology Research and Consulting division of Frost & Sullivan. It represents a collection of
the most exciting technologies that will shape our World in the next couple of years. This body
of work is a culmination of thousands of hours of relentless effort put in by over 50 global TI
analysts based in six continents.
The selected technologies are spread across nine Technology Clusters which represent the
bulk of R&D and innovation activity today. The structure of the report is based on these nine
Technology Clusters.
The analyst team collected intelligence on several emerging and disruptive technologies and
innovations from around the globe. Numerous interviews were conducted with innovators and
developers. The respondents were spread across public and private companies, universities,
research institutions, and R&D oriented government agencies. Next, each technology was rated
and compared across many parameters such as global R&D foot print, Year of Impact, global IP
patenting activity, private and government funding, current and emerging applications, current
and potential adoption rate, etc. The report provides all these details for each of the selected
technologies. Finally, the list was condensed to the Top 50 technologies which we believe have
the maximum potential for wide-scale launch and mass commercialization.
TechVision 2020 is an annual research initiative of Technical Insights. Its primary objective is to
identify key technologies that will impact our lives in this decade. Work has already started on
the 2012 report. In the meantime, enjoy our selection of technologies for 2011!
9. Nanomaterials: Technology Snapshot
D E D E
C F C F
D9G D9G
B G B G
!'(%( 4 ().(' !'(%( 4
,0*,4
• Nanocatalysts utilize nanomaterials for homogenous and heterogeneous catalytic reactions.
They increase the functionality and specificity of the catalytic reactions, while reducing the
!'(%( 4 1*12 reaction time. Nanocatalysts can be particulate, porous, crystalline or supra molecular in
nature. They are used in applications pertaining to alternative energy, pharmaceuticals, oil
and gas to name a few.
• Nanocatalysts exhibit better performance than conventional catalysts. Their nanoscale nature
results in the greater availability of catalyst, leading to increased catalytic performance and
!4 + , )(*,',7 utilization of raw materials, faster reaction time, and improved quality of the reactions.
Nanocatalysts are ecologically benign and are consider “green” when compared to
conventional catalysts.
• You’ll see nanocatalysts making an impact this year; they will have a significant impact in the
Alternate Energy and Oil and Gas sectors for fuel conversion reactions and biofuel synthesis.
* ( ), The nanocatalysts has applications in drug delivery, gene therapy and biosensors in the
pharmaceutical industry. They can be used in the manufacture of cosmetics, agrochemicals,
plastics and industrial chemicals.
10. Nanomaterials: Technology Development and Adoption
Footprint
North America
• DOE and NSF funding has led to the development and adoption of
nanocatalysts in the manufacture of biofuels, fine chemicals and
water purification methods. Europe
• Industrial funding in the pharmaceutical and personal care sector • Stringent government regulations and funding from DEFRA has
has enabled the use of nanocatalysts for drug delivery, gene therapy, driven the applications of nanocatalysts for developing biofuels and
biosensors and cosmetics. use iin waste water treatment.
• Automobile companies are funding the research and development of
nanocatalysts for fuel cells and portable power units
China / Japan / Taiwan
• T h e c o u n t r i e s a r e
Middle East concentrating on developing
• Industries and universities fund the development of nanocatalysts for chemical
nanocatalysts in crude oil desulfurization, catalytic industry.
cracking and reforming of petroleum; this has led to
the adoption of nanocatalysts in the oil and gas sector.
','+,4 ( !'(%( 4 India
1%()', • Research is still in developmental stages
• Industrial collaborations have resulted in
)3 ! the use of nanocatalysts for the
! manufacture of fine chemicals
/% Australia
• Australia is working on the use
11. '1 of nanocatalysts for fuel cells
and auto catalysts
)3
14. Smart Textiles: Technology Snapshot
2 3 2 3
1 4 1 4
1.75 2.5
0 5 0 5
Technology Adoption Technology Maturity
• Smart textiles are defined as textiles capable of superior performance thought the aid of
electronics and superior engineered materials.
!'(%( 4 1*12 • In the most recent Olympics, we witnessed several new world records in swimming, partly
due to technologically enhanced swimsuits.
• Smart textiles as a market has seen exponential growth over the past few years.
• Apart from being applicable for sports, smart textiles are used in healthcare protective gear
!4 + , )(*,',7 and military applications
• Currently, the smart textiles market is fragmented as the technology caters to high end and
niche applications.
• The technology for smart textiles is expected to be widely adopted in some niche
applications such as firefighting and sports in the next two to three years provided the issues
* ( ),
related to cost and ease of manufacturing in large scale are overcome. Smart textiles have
the potential to become fashionable yet life saving.
15. Smart Textiles: Funding Trends
Speciality
Applications
Application Sectors 14%
Military
Military 38
Sportswear %
Healthcare
19%
Sports Wear
Specialty
Applications
Healthcare
29%
• The largest area of application is military apparel. This is because any advantage in a combat field can never be
underestimated. In this regard, smart textiles have the ability to provide superior camouflage functionality. This benefit has
driven increased government funding for smart textiles in the recent years.
• The next most significant area of research focus is Healthcare. This is driven by high costs of specialist healthcare
personnel.
• Sportswear is also a key area of research focus as the textiles used in sports applications provide some superior
characteristics when compared to normal wear. For example, swimwear can show superior hydrophobic properties.
16. Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage
Micro UAV
Solider Human Energy
Electric Vehicle
Modernization Harvesting
Fuel Cell
17. Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage: Funding
Trends
0'' *( ' (1*4 , (* '* 4 Public spending on transportation-related
,(* 8 DBBJ ; DBCB energy storage, 2008 2011
@GB %%('
@GJH %%(' @DHC %%('
18. '%
• ! '0)%+ ,0 / ' 0 ) 3
*+') = '$3 +! $*+ 1 3)*8 • Discounting China from the top spenders of public
• ! ! ! ('),' ' (/$ *( ) 3 *+') ') spending (due to the unavailability of data), the
+)*(')+,' * %$3 / +' ?FBB %$$' *+ * ') US, Japan, Germany and France then emerge as
%'*+),' (/)('**6 1!)* ):*$ %'*+),' !* the Top 4 spenders with regards to energy
()'0 / + ' ?CJG %$$'8 storage for transportation applications, due to the
countries association with automotive
•
$+ DBBK6 1) )+* ') +! '*+)/,' ' CGB: manufacturing.
9CB:!'/) EBB:
9CB:!'/) 0 *':
),' : /+* +' 1 ')# ++ $+) = * • Interestingly, spending on fuel cell RDD actually
= 6 )*(,0$38 outpaced that of batteries.
19. Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage: Technology
Landscape
Transmission Distribution
Uninterruptable Power Supply Bulk Power Energy
Grid Support
Power Quality Management
Load Shifting and Leveling
30. Key Insight: Solar accounted for 27% (119 deals in 2010)
Thin film PV of the overall number of VC and Private Equity
investments in the Renewable Energy Sector
United States Germany China
The US Department of Energy (DOE) In 2010, the Federal Environment Ministry (BMU) Installation of PV in China is largely due to
supported the Solar Energy Technologies provided EUR 39.1 million to support RD the desire to improve rural infrastructure.
Program (SETP) with $225 million in 2010 and projects on PV, spread out over 152 projects. In Although China has emerged to become
$117 million from the Recovery Act. In 2010, the area of thin film, focus was on silicon and CIS the largest producer of PV modules in the
the DOE funded the third and final year of technologies. In addition, Germany has several world, the country is still relatively weak in
more than 20 Next Generation program active companies in thin film PV, including silicon thin film RD. Most thin film RD is
projects in 11 different areas. A total of $8 thin film (10 companies, 420 MW production undertaken by the academic sector, where
million will be set aside for the development of capacity), CIS (11 companies, 310 MW) and CdTe certain RD institutions have developed
advanced thin films. (3 companies, 260 MW) thin film PV with higher efficiencies,
including Nankai University (CIGS, 14.3%),
and Sichuan University (CdTe, 13.4%).
France
A major RD project in France is POLYSIL,
which started in December 2009. Focusing
','+,4 ( !'(%( 4
on the development of thin film PV, the
1%()',
project aims to give France a leading edge
in thin film PV technology. Another key
)3 !
stakeholder is IRDEP, a RD institution that
! is focusing on reducing production costs of
PV modules, improved PV conversion
/% efficiencies and processes for thin film
deposition.
34. Thin Film PV: Funding Trends
0% +)'' (' (%* (* +%, (0',*+8 DBCB
• Many countries are still investing a large percentage of
their public RD spending on RD and deployment of
solar technologies.
• Top national spenders were USA, Japan, Korea,
France and Australia.
• Data on public spending in China was not available.
However, based on China s interest on clean energy
RD, it is expected that public spending would be
higher, or at least equivalent to that of USA.
• +1 DBBI DBBJ6 %') +! ?C8H $$' 0+/)
',0* ),% +)'' (' !' % 8 DBBH ; DBBI (+$ 1* 0*+ $'$$3 +! $% 6 1!! !*
)*/$+ +! *+$*!%+ ' %') +! CBB *+)+:/(*8
•
'*+ 0*+%+ 1* '/* '
6 1!! !* *!'1
+! ! !*+ * %' $$ +! +! $%
+!'$' *6 $+!'/ ! %/+/) '*+* ')
) *,$$
)$,0$3 ! !)8
• +! CB $) *+ $:+! $* DBCB6 +!)
1) ') +! $% ;'$3)6 '/ '$)
*'$6
1+! 0) 0*+%+ ' ?CEB %$$'8
35. Renewable Chemicals: Technology Snapshot
D E D E
C F C F
D9B D9B
B G B G
!'(%( 4 ().(' !'(%( 4
,0*,4
• Renewable chemicals refers to the development of environmentally friendly, sustainable
chemicals that can be used to replace traditional petrochemicals.
• The main feedstock for renewable chemicals are usually obtained from sugar, starch and
!'(%( 4 1*12 vegetable oil feedstock. Biomass can also be used as a feedstock, but requires
pretreatment processing to convert it to simple sugars.
• The simplest method to produce renewable chemicals is by using fermentation.
• Renewable chemicals are considered a more environment-friendly alternative to chemicals
derived from fossil fuels. Increased adoption of renewable chemicals will lead to less
carbon emissions, as well as reduced environmental impact.
!4 + , )(*,',7 • The production of renewable chemicals is also driven by the volatility of oil prices, as bulk
chemical producers are attempting to widen their product portfolio so as to lessen their risk
towards volatile oil prices.
• 1$ !%$* !0 0$$ ') *0)$ 3)*6 1+! +! )*+ *+') +' %(+
+! ($*,* /*+)36 1+! +! +)'/,' ' '($*,* % )'% ('$3$, ;
37. Advanced Manufacturing: Technology Snapshot
D E D E
C F C F
D9G E9B
B G B G
!'(%( 4 ().(' !'(%( 4
,0*,4
• Digital Manufacturing technology refers to the use of simulation tools and product lifecycle
management software, and ICT solutions to achieve higher productivity in manufacturing, thereby
increasing competitiveness.
• The removal of global trade barriers, and the creation of globally distributed manufacturing
necessitates the transition to a digital manufacturing enterprise.
!'(%( 4 1*12 • Also, called e-manufacturing technologies in this domain facilitate the link between the ‘top floor’ and
‘shop floor’ wherein information from plant automation and control systems can be fed to higher level
information layers of the enterprise for decision making and strategy management.
• There is a dire need to achieve a competitive edge with low cost overseas manufacturing locations,
and this applies to small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) as well. This can be achieved by
utilizing digital manufacturing to achieve cost economics, reducing time to market of products,
improving responsiveness to customers, and acquiring the ability for mass customization.
!4 + , )(*,',7
• Companies can keep pace with competition for developing futuristic products if product lifecycle
management (PLM) solutions are adopted, and simulation tools are effectively used for product
development and process optimization.
• Usage of digital manufacturing for collaborative new product design, agile manufacturing, and
), supply chain integration can be seen in competitive markets. However, there is tremendous
untapped potential across several manufacturing streams, which include small and medium scale
enterprises.
44. 3D Integration
System-In-
Package (SiP)
3D Integration System-On- Illustrations
Approaches Chip (SoC)
3D Integrated
Circuit (IC)
Critical markers for sector growth The Road Ahead
45. Flexible Electronics
Technology
Potential Markets with
connected needs Medical
Devices
Consumer
Electronics
Military
Supply
Chain Food
Packaging
Current Developments/Products
Market Potential
Global CAGR (2009 - 2014) 19%
North Europe – 32%
America – 28%
APAC – 36%
ROW – 4%
48. Semantic Web: Technology Snapshot
2 3 2 3
1 4 1 4
3 3.5
0 5 0 5
Technology Adoption Technology Maturity
• Semantic Web Technology is a collation of different methods and technologies that serve
as an extension to the web by appending new data and meta data to the existing content.
!'(%( 4 1*12 This technology empowers the computer to process and understand the data available on
the web, extrapolate useful information for the user
• It incorporates markup languages, frameworks, querying tools such as Web Ontology
Language (OWL) and Resource Description Framework (RDF)
• Semantic Web adds meaning and structure to the content on the web. It assists the
computer to understand relationships between different data sources to make logical
connections and decisions
!4 + , )(*,',7
• Equips the software agent to identify, analyze, evaluate and combine the information
across multiple resources. Performs sophisticated tasks for end users, automates different
operations with minimal human intervention
• Semantic web has become the buzz word of the internet since 2010. The semantic web
space has witnessed the rise of start ups and consumer based product offerings. With
* ( ), enterprise inclination towards intuitive analytics continuing to increase, 2012 and 2013
could be rightly cited as the years of major impact for semantic technologies
• Generation of critical insights from customer experience data offers significant business
potential across verticals
49. Long Term Evolution:Technology Snapshot
2 3 2 3
1 4 1 4
2.7 3.5
0 5 0 5
Technology Adoption Technology Maturity
• Long Term Evolution (LTE) is a fourth generation (4G) cellular network technology that
promises to offer enhanced data rates and capacity for mobile broadband connectivity
!'(%( 4 1*12
•
• The technology has garnered the attention of several large carrier network operators-
many operators have abandoned WiMAX, a competing 4G technology, in favour of LTE.
• Cellular network operators across the globe have been struggling to support the surging
data traffic on their networks. With the advent and widespread adoption of powerful
smartphones, mobile data traffic has risen drastically
!4 + , )(*,',7
• LTE, owing to its ability to facilitate improved data rates and capacity, is cited as a
solution for cellular network capacity crunch
• The time division duplex (TDD) version of LTE is expected to be widely deployed as the
* ( ), availability of unpaired spectrum can be leveraged for LTE TDD deployments. Major
deployments are expected in India in 2011, followed by China and Japan in 2012
50. Genome Sequencing: Technology Snapshot
2 3 2 3
1 4 1 4
4 3.5
0 5 0 5
Technology Adoption Technology Maturity
• Following the complete sequencing of the human genome and the availability of the
annotated human genome sequence online, DNA analysis has become a routine
Technology procedure.
Overview • Emergence of novel technologies for global genomic analysis (high throughput
sequencing, transcript profiling, SNP genotyping), haplotype mapping, and bioinformatics
has revolutionized the information available about the human genome.
• Genomics provides structural and organizational information and aims to improve the
ability to predict the manner in which genetic variation affects susceptibility to disease,
Why is it response to medical treatments, and how other important phenotypes, will have a
important? transformative effect on health care.
• Reductions in sequencing costs and improvements in the speed at which sequences can
be generated are ushering the era for personal genomics.
• Automated procedures are commercialized to prepare DNA for sequencing and analysis
broadly for health assessment, therapeutic decisions, and predicting phenotypes of
Year of Impact interest.
• Entire human genome can now be sequenced for a retail cost of $20,000 and NHGRI part
of the U.S. National Institute of Health has set a target to be able to sequence a human-
sized genome for US $1,000 by 2014