The document summarizes a presentation given by Thomas B Johansson on energy problems and perspectives for the 21st century. It discusses the major challenges requiring action on energy, including growing demand, access, affordability, security, and climate change mitigation. It outlines the Global Energy Assessment process involving knowledge modules and authors from around the world. Key points include that major energy system changes are needed, and that electricity, energy efficiency, and renewable energies can address all challenges simultaneously if deployed widely. The presentation concludes that transformative changes on energy are required, and that opportunities exist through policies, technologies, and global cooperation.
1. CEAL, Sao Paulo
October 15, 2010
ENERGY PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES
FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
Thomas B Johansson
Professor, International Insitute for Industrial Environmental Economics,
Lund University, Lund, Sweden,
Co-Chair, Global Energy Assessement, IIASA, Austria
7. Challenges requiring actions on Energy
a. Energy services for growing populations and
economies
b. access to modern forms of energy (the 2 billion
w/o access)
c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??)
d. secure supplies, from households to nations
e. local and regional health and environment
challenges
f. climate change mitigation
g. ancillary risks
=> Major Energy System Changes Needed!
9. Assessement
Process leading to a Report and much more
25 Knowledge Modules, ~200 authors, geographically and
gender diversified
Stakeholder consultations
External peer review
Extensive dissemination
Informing Rio +20 and other international, regional, naitonal
and corporate on energy and/or linked to energy issues
10. Supporting the GEA:Supporting the GEA:
International OrganizationsInternational Organizations
UNDESAUNDESA
UNDPUNDP
UNEPUNEP
UNIDOUNIDO
World BankWorld Bank
IIASAIIASA
Country Governments/AgenciesCountry Governments/Agencies
AustriaAustria
BrazilBrazil
European UnionEuropean Union
GermanyGermany
ItalyItaly
SwedenSweden
USAUSA
CorporationsCorporations
PetrobrasPetrobras
TEPCOTEPCO
First SolarFirst Solar
Industry groupsIndustry groups
WECWEC
WBCSDWBCSD
FoundationsFoundations
UN FoundationUN Foundation
Climate WorksClimate Works
11. Four Clusters of Knowledge modules:
1.The Challenges, nature and magnitude of
change required
2.Resources and technology options
3.Pathways to sustainability, urbanisation,
rural energy, and land use
4.Policies, energy end use and supply
sectors, access, innovation, capacity
developoment
12. Electricity
●ElectricityElectricity for All in the Medium Termfor All in the Medium Term
(may be achievable(may be achievable))
– Use of both grid-extensionUse of both grid-extension
and decentralized systems +and decentralized systems +
conventional and renewableconventional and renewable
energy technologiesenergy technologies
– Strong national (and local) +Strong national (and local) +
public (and private)public (and private)
delivery modelsdelivery models
– Smart use of subsidies andSmart use of subsidies and
other innovative financing mechanismsother innovative financing mechanisms
(global effort would be required)(global effort would be required)
13. Clean Cooking Fuels
● Biogas, LPG, alcohols, kerosene, electricity
● Benefits
– Health
– Time spent
– Reduced emissions of
● Products of incomplete combustion
● Black carbon
15. World crude oil production model
Nashawi et al., Energy Fuels 2010, 24, 1788–1800
18. this translates into a need for a major
energy systems transformation
Main elements:
● Energy end-use efficiency
● Renewable energies
● Carbon Capture and Storage (for CC only)
● Efficiency and Renewables are
INSTRUMENTS for addressing all the
challenges at the same time!
19. “PassivHaus”
Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům
celkováenergie[kWh/m2
a]
Domácí spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
OhřevTUV
Vytápění
- 90%
- 75%
20. Example of savings by reconstruction
Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-90% 15 kWh/(m²a)over 150 kWh/(m²a)
Before reconstruction
Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006
21. 21
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
Summation, 1.4% Retrofit, exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
W
ork
in
progress
–
do
not cite
or quote
-77%
Final thermal energy consumption in the world’s
buildings by region, 2005-2050
3%/yr retrofit rate
22. How far can buildings take us?How far can buildings take us?
23. Letter Horse Hay Agriculture Sunlight
Telegraph
Steam
Locomotive
Coal Coal mine Coal fields
Interntet,
Mobile
Phone
ICE
Automobile
Gasoline Oil refinery Crude oil
Convergence Energy, Mobility
Information
Hydrogen
Natural gas /
fossils
SMR,
decarbonization
Electrolysis
Sunlight
Wind
Uranium
1770s
1870s
1970s
2070s
Mobility and Communication
Through Time
Biomass
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004
23
34. Wind Power in EU-27 and FITsWind Power in EU-27 and FITs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
ElectricityGeneration(TWh)
Countries with wind FIT Countries with alternative support
37. not just energy technology
● Urban planning
● Transportation systems
● Material use
● Land use
● Consumption patterns
● …..
38. Economic development and poverty alleviationEconomic development and poverty alleviation
while mitigating climate changewhile mitigating climate change
● Multiple benefits conceptMultiple benefits concept
● ValueValue allall benefits (jobs, growth, security, health,benefits (jobs, growth, security, health,
local environment, ...)local environment, ...)
● Costs in terms of € per tC misleadingCosts in terms of € per tC misleading
● Energy efficiencyEnergy efficiency
● Renewable energiesRenewable energies
39. Major findings and conclusionsMajor findings and conclusions
● Rapidly changing worldRapidly changing world
● Transformative changes needed on energyTransformative changes needed on energy
● Window of opportunity existsWindow of opportunity exists
● Resources and technologies existResources and technologies exist
● Rapidly growing role for renewable energiesRapidly growing role for renewable energies
● Electricity growing importanceElectricity growing importance
● Policies and institutions criticalPolicies and institutions critical
● Energy subsidies and R&D misallocatedEnergy subsidies and R&D misallocated
● Capacity development worldwideCapacity development worldwide