A book that challenges the traditional paradigm in which space goals are equated with destinations. It suggests that spaceflight programs should target advanced capabilities that bring direct benefits to Earth and enable exploration and development of the solar system. Space activities are examined in the context of today's globalized world while paying homage to the work of noted space futurists. Historical examples and current political processes illustrate the forces that perpetuate short-term thinking and highlight the need for incentives to promote long-term thinking. The book presents a revised rationale for spaceflight directly tied to societal needs and ambitions, with a greater role for the commercial sector.

1. Choice, Not Fate
Shaping a Sustainable Future in the Space Age
published December 2009
by Xlibris Corporation
James A. Vedda, Ph.D.

2. Motivations for writing this book
Frustration with:
– Short-term thinking
– Inability to get beyond Apollo-era
approach
• Destination-driven goal setting for
human spaceflight
• R&D constrained by resource
demands of operations
– Counterproductive arguments about the
roles of government vs. private sector
Desire to develop ideas for:
– Spaceflight rationales for the 21st
century
– Capabilities-driven goal setting
– Cross-sector collaboration
– Space contributions to global solutions

3. Chapter 1
The role of space in a new era
• Cold War: national security tool, source of
national prestige, driver of technological
advancement
• Globalization: includes all of the above, plus
contributor to economic security and other
solutions to global problems
- Trends: stresses on the economy, the
environment, security, energy, population
- Space must be part of the solution rather than part
of the problem, both in reality and in perception
Need to define a new identity for a new era

4. Chapter 2
Brief history of our search for a vision
• Review of noted Cold War era space futurists
– Arthur C. Clarke, Gerard K. O’Neill, Dandridge
Cole, Herman Kahn
– Why have things turned out differently from what
most experts predicted and most advocates
expected?
• U.S. government expert panels on vision and
strategy have been largely unsuccessful
– Too much emphasis on “what” and “how to” and
not enough on “why” and “why now”
– Overreliance on the Von Braun Moon-Mars
paradigm

5. Chapter 3
Pervasiveness of short-term thinking
• Driven by:
– Election cycles: the 2-year/4-year quest to gain or
retain political power
– Budget cycles: R&D and infrastructure programs
are not well served by annual budgeting
– News cycles: speed and brevity trump accuracy
and depth; rumor and perception become reality
• Effects are evident in the presidency, the
Congress, the federal bureaucracy, and
elsewhere
These cycles undermine long-term
strategic planning and public education
in complex public policy areas

6. Chapter 4
Finding hope in the bureaucracy
• Storehouse of knowledge, experience, and
institutional memory
• Affected by all the cycles mentioned
previously, creating an environment with
disincentives to innovation and forward-
thinking
• Opinions vary on which activities should or
should not be government responsibilities
• NASA’s evolving role
– From leader to enabler
– Away from operational responsibilities

7. Chapter 5
The emergence of astropreneurs
• Space commerce is huge – or is it?
– Compared to other types of commerce, not so much
– But direct revenues don’t tell the whole story of its influence
• Space entrepreneurialism: the story so far
– Has its roots in post-Apollo space advocacy
– Resistant to the traditional approaches to space development
• Mixed results from the U.S. government mandate to “encourage
and facilitate” space commerce
• Undermined by hype from both public and private sectors
– Shuttle era: Microgravity materials processing
– Today: Space tourism?
– Tomorrow: Lunar mining? Solar power satellites?
• Can the public and private sectors form lasting, productive
collaborations that take the long-term view?

8. Chapter 6
Be Careful What You Wish For
• Wise choices can be elusive, even after
extensive consideration
– Results can be disappointing and costly
– Examples from European colonization to space
shuttle and space station
• Thought experiments: life extension and teleportation
– At first glance, universally beneficial; upon further
examination, many negative consequences
• Unintended consequences: space export control
– Example of failure to examine long-term implications

9. Chapter 7
Reconsidering spaceflight rationales
• Currently, there’s no strategic imperative for space
exploration and development
– Space is no longer seen in the U.S. as a fast-paced, cutting-
edge pursuit
• As primary rationales, human destiny, national
prestige, science, technology spin-offs, and inspiration
of youth are no longer sufficient
• Expansive views of economic development and
survival should be the new primary rationales
• The answer to the “Why spaceflight?” question should
be:
– Because that’s where the resources are
– Because it will save our butts

10. Chapter 7
Pitching space rationales to the right level
Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs
– Aiming for self-actualization while
ignoring lower levels results in
public support that’s a mile wide
but an inch deep
– Evidence in polling data
(Gallup, Harris)
– People still perceive Earth as a
closed system and space as a
luxury activity

11. Chapter 8
Taking a century perspective
• The role of space in global solutions
– 20th century assumptions on key global parameters
(e.g., population demographics, resource
availability, climate, political and economic alliances) may no
longer be valid
• How can space help ensure access to the core
resources – clean energy and fresh water?
– Advanced resource monitoring from space
– Solar power satellites to feed the utility grid and high-volume
users such as electric high-speed trains and water
desalination plants
• Today’s planning scenarios should reach at least to
mid-century
It’s time for space technology to save the planet
(again) using a multidisciplinary, farsighted approach.

12. Chapter 9
Making a commitment to the future
• Need to purge false dichotomies: humans or robots;
exploration or development; low Earth orbit or the
Moon and beyond
• The quest for capabilities and knowledge should
determine the destinations, not the other way around
• Space capabilities should be aligned with high-priority
national imperatives
• Planning process needs to recognize that
infrastructure elements have very long life cycles – a
few decades
Stop worrying about whether all of our
spaceflight dreams will be fulfilled within our
lifetime – it’s not about Me in Space!

13. Main themes
• Long-term thinking – at least to mid-
century
• Mutually supportive exploration and
development strategies built around
national needs and aspirations
• Capabilities-driven planning (NOT
destination-driven)
• Potential for space efforts to contribute to
global solutions

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