The document summarizes the process for updating the Water Authority's Facilities Master Plan through 2035. It discusses evaluating baseline and stress scenarios to assess supply reliability and identify needed infrastructure projects. Key points include: - The Master Plan will identify capital projects to ensure sufficient water supplies through 2035 under normal and dry conditions. - Scenarios will incorporate factors like climate change, drought, and supply uncertainties to stress test the system. - Initial strategies to address needs include expanding conveyance, desalination, storage, and relying on local agency supplies. - Alternative portfolios of infrastructure projects will be developed and evaluated. - A Program EIR will assess regional environmental impacts to satisfy CEQ

2.  The Master Plan is the Water Authority’s
roadmap for capital investments through 2035
 Previous Master Plan completed in 2003
 Includes Programmatic EIR to assess regional
impacts
◦ Climate Action Plan
 Used to identify future CIP Budget
appropriations
2

3. January 10- Special Water Planning Meeting
 Legislative/regulatory requirements associated with climate change
 Overview of developing a Climate Action Plan
Feb 28 - Water Planning Committee
 Reviewed 2010 Urban Water Management Plan supply and demand assumptions
 Reviewed key recommendations from 2003 Facilities Master Plan
• Twin Oaks valley WTP
• Carlsbad Desalination
• Raw water capacity enhancements
Provided Preliminary modeling results of system performance under Baseline
Scenario (2010 UWMP)
• Sufficient treated and untreated capacity prior to 2025
• Considers only weather related effects on demands and supplies
• Assumes verifiable mix of imported and local supplies implemented per 2010 UWMP
Began discussing stress scenarios and facility portfolios to address future
uncertainty
3

4.  Respond to questions/comments from February
28th Committee Meeting
• What if the 2010 UWMP doesn’t happen as planned?
• Estimating available MWD supplies
• Effects beyond weather
• SWP reliability
• MWD shortage allocation
• What local supplies are contemplated
4

5.  Continue discussion on
system capacity needs,
constraints and operation
• Seasonal variations in
demand
• Baseline System performance
• Performance under Stress
Scenarios
 Constraints, bottlenecks and
potential shortages
5

6. ‣ The Role of Water
Authority Storage
 Enhancing supply
reliability
 Flexibility in addressing
peak demand
 Opportunities for
energy production
◦ Aqueduct
hydroelectricity
generation
◦ Pumped Storage beyond
Hodges-Olivenhain
6

7. Water Use Water
Demand Water Scenario
Efficiency Reliability
Forecast Supplies Planning
Target Assessment
Econometric Process to
Water Resource mix
Model Retail manage
Authority to meet
utilizing Compliance supply
and member demands in
SANDAG with SBX7-7: uncertainties
agency normal and
Regional 20% savings associated
verifiable dry water
Growth by 2020 with resource
supplies years
Forecast mix
7

8.  Assess normal, single dry, and multiple dry water
years
 Assumptions under dry-year conditions
◦ Local supplies (groundwater, surface water) based on
lowest historic dry-year yield
◦ Single dry-year: Adequate carry-over supplies in storage,
no shortages anticipated
◦ Multiple dry-year: MWD allocates water under preferential
rights in accordance with MWD Act
 Unknown how MWD will allocate in the future - reliable
planning assumption
 1.8 MAF available (consistent with supplies available during FY
2010 allocation period)
8

9.  No shortages 2020 Water Resources Mix
anticipated
◦ Supplies developed as
Local Surface Recycled Seawater
Water Water Desalination
6%
planned by member
Groundwater 6% 9%
2%
agencies, Water Conservation
Authority, and MWD
13% MWD
30%
◦ Member agencies
achieve SBX7-7 savings
Canal Lining
Transfer
target
10% IID Transfer
24%
9

10. 900 Potential Shortage Carryover
800
Storage  Supplies developed
as planned and
700
MWD
SBX7-7 savings
600
Allocation achieved
500 (P.R.)  MWD is allocating
supplies
TAF
400
Member
 Drought (1.8 MAF
300 Agency
available)
Supplies
200
 Potential shortages
100 Carlsbad  Handled through
Seawater management actions
0 Desalinatio
2026 2027 2028 n
10

11.  A decision support planning method to
incorporate uncertainty into supply planning
assumptions
 Develop small but wide-ranging set of future
scenarios based on key uncertainties
 Not predictions, but “what-if” scenarios for planning purposes
 May be qualitative, quantitative, or both
 Assess reliability of water resources mix
 Provides for more comprehensive planning
11

12. Growth SWP Reliability Recurring
Droughts
Local Projects Climate Change
Development Risk
12

13. Recurring
Local Project Droughts
Development
Risks
SWP
Reliability
Future “Stress” Scenarios
13

14.  MWD supply availability
◦ Dry-year plus further supply limitations
 SWP – delivery restrictions with no delta fix
 CRA – assume shortages with limited program supplies
(e.g. storage and transfer supplies)
 Storage – supplies limited due to multi-year drought
◦ Estimated 1.5 MAF available for allocation
 Not prediction, but “what if” scenario used to stress
resource mix
◦ MWD is allocating supplies under preferential
rights
 Local projects fixed at current level (2009)
14

15. Scenario 3: Limited MWD and Member
 Evaluated 6 Agency Local Supplies
scenarios TAF
1000
◦ Developed based on Supply Gap Carryover Storage
uncertainty variables 900
◦ Quantitative and 800 MWD (P.R. allocation
qualitative of 1.5 MAF)
◦ Scenario 3 provides 700
greatest supply 600 SBX7-7 Savings
uncertainty
500
 Identified strategies 400 Local Supply (2009
to fill gap 300
levels)
◦ Additional planned
projects 200 Carlsbad Seawater
Desalination
 IPR, Pendleton Seawater 100
Desalination
0 Colorado River
Transfer Programs
2030 (dry year)
15

16.  Provides comprehensive evaluation of annual supply
reliability for the San Diego region
 Includes reliability assessment taking into account
hot and dry weather
 Incorporates scenario planning to further “stress” the
resource mix
◦ Effects beyond weather (e.g. SWP reliability, local supply
development risks)
◦ Identifies strategies (additional planned projects) that could
fill any supply gap
 Results utilized in Facilities Master Plan Update

17.  Master Plan “Baseline Scenario” is the UWMP resource
mix (w/variation in weather)
 Evaluates impacts of UWMP scenarios on system
conveyance, treatment and storage facilities
 Analyzes responses to variations in daily, weekly and
seasonal member agency demands
 Identifies problems, constraints and risks
 Identifies strategies that are robust and respond to
an array of future supply/demand conditions
17

18.  Baseline System includes:
• Existing aqueduct system of pipelines, treatment plants,
and storage reservoirs
• Ongoing construction projects funded through FY14/15
Appropriation
• Remaining ESP facilities, including:
 North County ESP Pump Station
 San Vicente PS 3rd VFD and Power Supply
• Completion of Carlsbad Desalination Project by 2016
 Treated/Untreated split
 Seasonal and Daily Peaking
18

19. Untreated Water
Delivery System Future System Capacity
Constraint - Pipelines 3 and 5
(beyond 2025)
Weese
Twin Oaks Valley
100 MGD
Escondido/Vista ID
Olivenhain
Poway
Badger
Miramar
Levy
Alvarado
Existing System Capacity
Constraint - Pipeline 3 and 4
Intertie
Perdue
Otay
19

20. 800.00
700.00 95% of Untreated
Capacity Historic Daily
600.00 Untreated Flow
500.00
CFS
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
20

21. 800.00 800.00
750.00 750.00
700.00 700.00
650.00 650.00
CFS
CFS
600.00 600.00
550.00 550.00
500.00 500.00
Peaking August 2007 Peaking August 2010
21

22. Untreated Water
Delivery System
with Reservoirs Weese
Twin Oaks Valley
100 MGD
Escondido/Vista ID
Olivenhain
Olivenhain
Lake Hodges
Poway
Badger
San Vicente
Miramar
El Capitan
Levy
Alvarado
Sweetwater
Perdue
Lower Otay
Otay
22

23.  Regional Capacity
◦ 590,000 AF
◦ Member Agency planned
reservoir operations needed to
alleviate peak demands
 San Vicente Dam Raise
◦ Increases capacity by 152,000
acre feet
◦ Provides seasonal and
carryover storage
◦ Provides important storage
buffer against potential near-
term shortages while IID and
QSA supplies ramp up
23

24. Benefits of Regional and
Member Agency Storage
• Local runoff fills reservoirs during winter season
• During dry years, storage capacity is available for imported
seasonal deliveries
• Reservoirs are drawn down Total Member Agencies Storage Monthly Average Jan 2015–Dec 2035
during peak season Hydrology Period 1988-2007
250,000
• Avoids need to increase
pipeline capacity 200,000
• May create a winter peak on
pipeline capacity
150,000
af
• Reservoirs buffer both 100,000
treated and untreated
demand on the aqueduct 50,000
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
24

25. Treated Water North County ESP
Delivery System PS
Expand
Twin Oaks Valley
TOVWTP
100 MGD
Service Area
Carlsbad Seawater Desal Plant
25

26. Steep increase in untreated water deliveries
500000
will require additional capacity
450000
400000
350000
300000
Acre Feet
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
MWD Untreated MWD Treated
Untreated includes MWD purchases and QSA supplies 26

27.  Test Performance of Baseline Aqueduct System
against Master Plan Scenarios
◦ Determines project implementation date
◦ Assures optimization of existing infrastructure
 Identify Alternatives that Address Performance
Gaps
◦ Facility related constraints
◦ Supply related constraints (MWD, local projects)
 Initial Strategies for Crafting Portfolios
◦ Maximize conveyance (imported water)
◦ Expand regional desalination
◦ Maximize storage options
◦ Assume member agency local supply development
27

28.  Address Capacity Constraints
◦ Maximize conveyance (imported water)
 Pipeline 6 – 500 cfs
 Pipelines 3 / 4 Switch - 200 cfs moved to untreated conveyance
 Colorado River Conveyance – 400 cfs
 Address Capacity and Supply Constraints
◦ Expand regional desalination (local water production)
 Camp Pendleton – 77 to 232 cfs
◦ Rely on Member Agency local projects to reduce demand on
Water Authority
 IPR
 Rosarito or other desalination project
 Non-potable recycling
28

29. Alternative Infrastructure
Portfolios 1
1. Pipeline 6 (Pipelines P3/P4 switch) 4
2. Camp Pendleton Desalination
3. Colorado River Conveyance 2 8
Infrastructure Common to each
9
Portfolio
4. ESP North County Pump Stations
5. ESP San Vicente Pump Station 3rd 5
VFD and Power Supply
6. Mission Trails Flow Regulatory
3
Structure
7. Lake Murray Control Valve 6
8. Second Crossover Pipeline 7
9. System Regulatory Structure
10. Pipeline Replacement and Relining
29

30.  How does energy fit into long range
planning?
 Energy demand will increase with completion
of recent capital projects
 Generating capacity includes hydroelectric,
solar and Hodges Pumped Storage
 Master Plan Goal
◦ Maximize energy development
◦ Mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
 Identified potential hydroelectric locations
30

31.  15 potential hydroelectric
generation locations
identified
 Uses excess aqueduct
pressure for energy
recovery
 Evaluate economic
viability
◦ Acceptable payback period
 Consider as possible
mitigation strategy for
Climate Action Plan
31

32. California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA)
• Program EIR will address regional impacts
• Used in future project-specific EIRs
• Releasing Notice of Preparation for the Program
Environmental Impact Report – starts the CEQA
process
 30-day public review period
 Public scoping meeting to be held at the Water
Authority within 30-day review period
 Comments received will be considered in preparation
of the Program EIR
32

33.  Mar/Apr 2013 Member Agency TAC Mtgs. to further
analyze and refine alternatives
 Apr/May 2013 Water Planning Committee
• Committee Review, Comment and Select of
Master Plan Draft Preferred Alternative
 Summer 2013 Public Release of Draft Master Plan, Draft
Climate Action Plan and Draft Program EIR
 End of 2013 Board Mtg. to Consider EIR Certification
33

34. 34