Natural Solutions to the Climate Crisis - Critical Policies and Actions, Fred Boltz
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Fred Boltz, Senior Vice-President, Global Strategies for Conservation International, moderated the Tuesday (10 November) WILD9 plenary panel on "Wild Nature and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation."
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Natural Solutions to the Climate Crisis - Critical Policies and Actions, Fred Boltz
- 1. climate change and wild nature WILD9 Panel Discussion November 10, 2009 Merida, Mexico
- 2. natural solutions to the climate crisis Fred Boltz, Ph.D. Senior Vice President Climate Change Lead
- 3. atmospheric GHG concentration must stabilize at 350 - 450 ppm CO 2 e
- 4. currently 385 ppm , increasing ~2 ppm/yr ( Rogelj et al. 2009 ) Per current commitments
- 5. climate change and projected water shortages projected agricultural water shortages projected drinking water shortages
- 6. ocean warming and local extinctions of exploited fish Cheung 2009
- 7. ~15% deforestation logging, clearing and burning tropical forests accounts for ~15% of annual GHG emissions
- 8. 90% of deforestation is from agriculture 70% of mitigation potential is in developing countries ~14% agriculture
- 9. resolute action is necessary NOW
- 12. vulnerability assessments for marine ecosystems SEVERE climate change scenario MILD climate change scenario
- 13. adaptation planning for ecosystems and economies adapting for coffee production in Chiapas
- 14. nearly 1/3 of the solution, available NOW low C high C Biodiversity Hotspots & High Biodiversity Wilderness Areas conservation (REDD) + improved agriculture
- 15. REDD+ policy incentives for all nations
- 16. economics favor broad scope of REDD+ Busch, et al. 2009; www.conservation.org/osiris
- 17. protecting natural forests must be the REDD+ priority
- 18. safeguards against conversion of natural forest
- 19. safeguards for biodiversity
- 20. REDD+ benefits biodiversity REDD+ and Biodiversity ( Busch et al., forthcoming )
- 21. safeguards for indigenous and local communities
- 22. Brendan Mackey, Ph.D. Professor of Ecology and Environmental Science, The Australian National University and IUCN Councilor Adriana Nelly Correa Director, Andres Marcelo Sada Chair on Conservation and Sustainable Development, Tecnol ó gico de Monterrey Nik Lopoukhine Chair, IUCN-World Commission on Protected Areas Peg Putt International Forests and Climate Campaigner, Wilderness Society of Australia Fred Boltz, Ph.D. Sr. Vice President and Climate Change Lead, Conservation International our panel
- 23. climate solutions now
Notes de l'éditeur
- CI is focused on science needed to build a next generation of adaptation conservation tools that explicitly address the climate change driven transitions already occurring. By 2050 it is predicted that 83% of 1066 fish and shellfish species used for food will have moved poleward by 291km on average. This has huge ramifications for managing commercial fisheries and for small coastal communities dependant on small-scale fisheries for their livelihoods and food. CI is working with these communities around the world – from the Philippines to the Galapagos to bring the best science on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and to develop new approaches to address this fundamental change in the world around us.
- Frontier areas in the Lacandon region of the Mexico/Guatemala border are under increasingg pressure as the region has stabilized from civil conflict (Chiapas – Zapateros) and cattle ranchers have pressed inland to seek new pasure Local farmers have a long tradition of coffee production, with strong indigenous groups who have stewarded the regions forests for generations. Manhy of the 1.8 million hectares of remaining forest are now biosphere reserves, co managed to meet the needs of biodiversity and local people. Critically important is protection of these forests for their watershed services. Fires created by cattle ranchers have become a problem throughout the landscape resulting in the destruction of community agricultural lands and forests and considerable increases in CO2 emissions. CI, local government and NGO partners are working with local communities to improve their stewardship of remaining froests in biosphere and indigenous reserves. REDD compensation and management of buffers for leakage and resource needs is part of this community baded program of livelihood diversitifcaion.
- Climate change benefits (both mitigation and adaptation) from the world’s major biomes, terrestrial and marine. Almost all of these biomes are highly threatened (SLIDE). Conservation is critical to securing these important services. Adapted by Turner et al. 2009 from: WWF (terrestrial biomes); UNEP-WCMC (coastal habitats; area increased for visibility); Waycott (2009; seagrass loss estimates); Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (all other loss estimates); IUCN Red List (species data for comprehensively assessed taxa: mammals, birds, amphibians, scleractinian corals, seahorses)
- OCEAN WILDERNESS FUNDAMENTAL TO LIFE 100% of the water we drink 20% of the food we eat Wilderness areas are the earth observation
- CI is currently working partners to understand the current and future economic value of marine ecosystem services. This work (SLIDE) is telling us how climate change will alter the effectiveness and value of marine systems for fisheries, coastal protection and tourism. For instance we know that the changes in ocean temperatures, ocean currents and acidification are already altering the distribution and population of fish species globally. But our work can tell us more precisely who the winners and losers might be and help us prepare for climate change. For instance the analysis tells us which areas of the Mexican Exclusive Economic Zone will see increases and decreases in fish catch (see figure). Many areas need to look at alternative food sources and livelihoods now as part of their adaptation strategies. We are now working to repeat this type of analysis globally for multiple marine ecosystem services.
- VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS - The world is still learning about how to use these natural protections against CC. CI has developed a Vulnerability Assessment Approach that works with governments and communities from national to local scales to “get started” on addressing the impacts of climate change on their communities and environment. To help communities in the regions we care about to overcome the seemingly overwhelming nature of climate change and its impacts on people and ecosystems. This approach brings together international experts on CC, local communities and governments to rapidly ask - given what we know now about CC , - What are the impacts of climate change on the biodiversity and related human well being? - What are the immediate priorities for management and action to address the impacts of climate change? To date we have applied this flexible approach in Madagascar, Indonesia, the Galapagos Islands, the Verde Island Passage in the Philippines, and the coffee plantations of the Sierra Madre in Mexico. In each case the approach helped move the governments and communities from anxiety over climate change to proactively facing the challenge and to understanding the essential value that the natural systems around them for adaptation to CC. The reserve system of the Sierra Madre covers over 535,000 ha and is home to a (largely indigenous) population of over 27,000. The population of the perimeter is several times larger. The poverty and vulnerability of the highland communities makes the Sierra Madre a model case for overlap of livelihoods, biodiversity and environmental service priorities. With an expected temperature increase of ~2.2 °C, 4-5% less and more variable rainfall by 2050, the suitability of the Sierra Madre for coffee is predicted to decline drastically, with severe impacts on people and ecosystems (SLIDE). Key adaptation measures include: Conservation of complex vegetation (forest, shade coffee) on farms which has been shown to reduce the risk of landslides Diversification into other land uses including Chamaedorea (“xate”) palms which are grown under even denser forest shade than coffee Increased access of communities to environmental service payments for income diversification Wildfire control and support for restoring fire and landslide damaged sites Strengthening of local resource management and adaptation capacity through watershed committees (note the strong link to mitigation)
- >17% of carbon emissions come from deforestation and forest degradation. Terrestrial carbon is concentrated in biodiverse wilderness areas (Amazon, Congo, Borneo, NG…), immediate, passing opportunities for conservation to proactively secure this carbon to avoid future emissions. [NOTES Note that this does not include wetlands, peat soils, etc. Including those would highlight wetlands in the tropics (amid forests in SE asia) and high-latitude wilderness areas (tundra). Below-ground and soil carbon in Ruesch & Gibbs is estimated from aboveground via a mathematical formula Send questions on map or slide to w.turner@conservation.org. ]
- Having identified the large funding and capacity gaps in REDD early on (readiness is estimated to cost $4B over five years), CI is one of the few organizations working on the ground to make sure that the technical, institutional, and legal barriers are overcome to ensure wide country participation in a future REDD market. By offering direct assistance to host countries along the full spectrum of climate change activities, from international negotiation to on the ground pilot project development, CI and our partners are working hard to align national policy reforms, community aspirations, and climate mitigation goals to ensure that any international climate agreement does not simply become an empty promise. As a way to assist countries in overcoming the many obstacles associated with implementing a National REDD Strategy and linking it with a future international climate agreement, CI has developed a “REDD Toolbox” which offers concrete support and solutions to governments on everything from methodological issues to financial and outreach strategies that are necessary to access a future REDD market.
- Having identified the large funding and capacity gaps in REDD early on (readiness is estimated to cost $4B over five years), CI is one of the few organizations working on the ground to make sure that the technical, institutional, and legal barriers are overcome to ensure wide country participation in a future REDD market. By offering direct assistance to host countries along the full spectrum of climate change activities, from international negotiation to on the ground pilot project development, CI and our partners are working hard to align national policy reforms, community aspirations, and climate mitigation goals to ensure that any international climate agreement does not simply become an empty promise. As a way to assist countries in overcoming the many obstacles associated with implementing a National REDD Strategy and linking it with a future international climate agreement, CI has developed a “REDD Toolbox” which offers concrete support and solutions to governments on everything from methodological issues to financial and outreach strategies that are necessary to access a future REDD market.
- CI’s corporate climate partners: $ investment in the field &as models + communications value Dell + Marriott (mention energy+ renewables+ forest offsets) – consumers, suppliers Ben will talk a bit more about the Dell project in Madagascar