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15 nov. 2016
Windham Labs hosts Benjamin Eischen to discuss different types of portfolio simulation and how to apply them to determine the best portfolios for clients.
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Confidential. Not for redistribution.
November 2016 1
Portfolio Simulation to Meet
Windham Capital Management, LLC
Senior Investment Associate
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GOAL OF THIS PRESENTATION
Introduce a rigorous quantitative approach to help managers add value
through portfolio simulation
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Target Date Funds
Types of Simulation
Capital Market Assumptions
Dynamic Strategy Review
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• Design a portfolio that has the highest likelihood of achieving the client’s
• Paying for college
• Sustained Spending
• Communicate the investment strategy in a way the client can understand
• Build confidence and trust
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TARGET DATE FUNDS
• Do not take into account the complete portfolio
• Spending and future earnings are disregarded
• Minimal or no assumptions about initial conditions or risk/return
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TYPES OF SIMULATION
• Monte Carlo Simulation
– Asset class returns are drawn from a normal distribution defined by
their assumed means and covariance matrix.
– Correlations between asset classes are constant throughout the
• Block Bootstrap Simulation
– Portfolio risk is best predicted by the empirical underlying data
– Does not assume portfolio returns come from a normal distribution
– Blocks of data are chosen to keep in tact any autocorrelation
– Correlations between asset classes are dynamic and change through
time (at least as much as we have seen through the historical sample)
– The empirical distribution is rescaled to reflect forecasted returns.
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MONTE CARLO VS. BOOTSTRAP
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CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
- Conditioned on turbulence
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WHY THE EXPECTED RETURN IS NOT TO BE EXPECTED
If you accept history as a guide to the future, at least to the
extent that history includes within it the potential investment
outcomes of the future, then the following two seemingly
paradoxical statements are true:
• The expected future wealth of a sequence of
returns drawn randomly from an actual
historical sample is greater than the wealth
actually produced by those historical returns
• Even if the past truly is representative of the future,
the likelihood that your wealth will grow to a sum
at least equal to its expected value is less than 50%.
Kritzman, Mark P. (2000) Puzzles of Finance. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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EXAMPLE: SAVING FOR COLLEGE
- Initial investment of $30,000
- Annual contribution of $5,000
- Goal of $250,000 in 18 years
Probability of Achieving Target Wealth
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EXAMPLE: SAVING FOR COLLEGE
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DYNAMIC STRATEGY REVIEW
- Set up recurring review to revisit progress towards goal
- Adjust the plan when spending, return environment or past
- Dynamically reviewing goals can increase the likelihood of
success up to 10%
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- More complex spending rules
- Performance linked
- Index Linked
- Percent of portfolio value
- Constant Growth
- Account for impact of inflation
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Upcoming Windham Webinars
Windham Software Overview
Thursday, November 17th at 11am
Portfolio Construction and Evaluation
with Jonathan Kazarian
Tuesday, December 13th
Please Send Questions to Info@windhamlabs.com
15© 2016 Windham Capital Management, LLC
The information contained in this presentation (the “Presentation”) is prepared solely for informational purposes. The Presentation is neither an offer
to buy or sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, or interests or shares in any fund or strategy. Historical data and other
information contained herein is believed to be reliable but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness or suitability for any specific
purpose. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, which may vary. There can be no assurance that the strategies’ investment
objectives will be achieved. All strategies in this Presentation place investor capital at risk. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of principal
References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are
provided for your information only. Reference to an index does not imply that the Windham portfolio will achieve returns, volatility or other results
similar to the index. The composition of a benchmark index may not reflect the manner in which a Windham portfolio is constructed in relation to
expected or achieved returns, investment holdings, portfolio guidelines, correlations or tracking error targets, all of which are subject to change over
Prospective investors should not rely on this Presentation in making any investment decisions. Windham’s portfolio risk management includes a
process for managing and monitoring risk, but should not be confused with, and does not imply, low risk. Asset classes and proportional weightings
in Windham portfolios may change at any time without notice. Windham does not provide tax advice to its clients and all investors are urged to
consult with their tax advisors with respect to any potential investment.
Please refer to Windham’s ADV Part 2A for additional information. Windham and its owners disclaim any and all liability relating to this Presentation,
including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, this information.