The document discusses the costs of delays, rescheduling, and cancellations for airlines. It analyzes data from Yemenia airline between 2010-2012 that showed technical problems, especially engine failures, were the primary cause of delays. Delays over 20 minutes can impact an airline's image and customer loyalty. The analysis found 121 delays under 20 minutes totaling 1355 minutes, and 87 delays over 20 minutes totaling 4185 minutes. Having backup aircraft is important, as two grounded planes at once can severely disrupt schedules. Addressing technical issues is also key to minimizing delays.

1. Cost of Delay, Rescheduling and
Cancellation In Airlines
Introduction
Usually Airlines are suffering from flights delay issues, but
most of them control these problems and their causes, so the
issue of flight delay may create a bad impression on the airline
image and its brand name in the market, and consequently it is
directly related to the concerned airline operation divisions and
departments, from maintenance, flight operation, commercial
and customer service, as they are interacted and integrated
divisions that serve for one mission, so every division has its
own rules and impacts on dispatch the flight on time, and any
negligence may reflects on airline final performance, and cause Mohammed S. Awad
the delay of the flight. In aviation industry the cost of delay is Research Scholar
considerably high due the high gained revenue of the flights and high direct fixed
operating cost for a certain type of aircraft hence we measure the activities of an
airline by its performance which usually addressed by the performance report of
Operation Control Committee OCC. Where the maintenance and material divisions
are the main airline departments that support the operation, as they are responsible for
aircraft technical readiness and fulfill the provision of spare parts of the aircraft, and
tracking/ monitoring the technical operating performance by papering reliability
report, which is similar as performance report, but its results are technical oriented, i.e
defining technical problems and failure diagnostic before its happen and cause a delay
or cancelation, which play a major rule in preventive maintenance program for the
aircraft. Finally by referring to Boeing Company reports, the engineering and
maintenance issues and problems for aircraft are represents 30-40% of total delay
cost for the flight in airline industry.
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2. OCC Operation Control Committee:
The weekly report of this committee is one
of the main sources of airline activity
evaluation and it is an effective tool to
explore and define deviations so a proper
action may take on time and most of
operating and serving departments represents
in the committee, so this report rise the
initial signals to predicate defect or trouble a
certain failure in the airline activity for one
week period.
Delay Cost:
It is too complicated to evaluate and
calculate the delay cost in the airline
industry and its impacts on the image and the
brand of the airline. So we can refer to
Boeing terms and definitions for delay cost
that addressed in AGIFORS - Denver which are
1- Passenger direct cost
2- Direct Operating Cost
3- Cost of unavailability of scheduling Aircraft
4- Cost of losing the image and the loyalty for the airline.
In our case we will use only two factors in the analysis only:
1- Passenger direct cost
2- Direct Operating Cost
the calculation of delay or cancellation cost
will as the following:
Direct Operating Cost + expected income
revenue of the delay or cancelled flight.
And according to the study of American
Airlines – domestic routes, the results are :
Delay from :
0 – 15 minute.......... No Calculation of Cost
16 - 60 minute….......0.25 % ticket/min/pax
1 – 2 Hours ……0.5 % ticket /min/pax Approximately 1 out 8 passengers will
probably not buy their next ticket on this airline.
2 – 5 Hours …….... All passengers will probably not buy tickets on this airline again
for at least a year. And in this stage the growth of delay cost increase exponentially
until reach to 5 hours delay period ( out of business).
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3. While the next figure explain the relationship between these costs and its average
values, indicating the direct cost of passenger may happen after 20 min of delay time,
and its impact on the passenger loyalty, image and the brand value of the airline.
Impacts of Engineering and
Maintenance:
Referring to the Boeing Study, the
share impact of maintenance and
engineering causes may reach 30-40
of total delay causes. And the
technical causes are the main
reasons for cancellation of the Figure ( 2 ) Delay Cost Elements - American Airlines Study.
flights and as its shows in the
previous figures, the maximum delay period for maintenance cause is 45-120 if there
is no cancellation. And the consequential effects of late aircraft arrival play a major
rule in rescheduling the flights again.
Delay Cost - Yemenia Case Study:
The period of 02/01/2010 to
12/03/2010 characterize by repeated
many delays in flights –Yemenia.
Among of that , the technical delays
and engine failures of B737-800
fleet which create a total mess in the
flight scheduling program. So the
delay cases can be address in two
directions
First : counting the repeated delays
issues
Figure ( 1 ) Measuring the time period costs
Second : the delay time American Airlines Study.
So delays can be caused by one of the following reasons:
1- Delay of the flight of the same aircraft type.
2- Delay of the flight may cause the need to change the type of the aircraft from
bigger to smaller capacity which lead to extra cost of spill passengers.
3- Delay of the flight may cause the need to change the type of the aircraft from
smaller to bigger capacity which lead to extra cost of losing the opportunity of
un utilize seats for sale in last minutes.
4- Aircraft Grounded cost, by sending another aircraft for taking the passengers
and supported spare parts.
5- Some time suddenly two aircrafts ground in the same time, and rise a hard
time for planners and consequently may lead to cancel the flight.
6- Un readiness of the aircraft for unexpected time.
7- Longer maintenance programs may lead to delay the flights.
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4. Figure ( 3 ). Delay Factors of Yemen Airways
Analysis:
In spite of defining Boeing Company the main factors that may cause the delays,
pointing out the maintenance /engineering and bad weather but yemenia analysis
results indicates another factors that impact high influence of those mentioned in
Boeing Study. However technical and engine failures remains the main factor in the
period of 02/01/2010 to 12/03/2010
1- Transit Passengers 2- Technical Problem
3- Airport Security 4- ATC
5- Late Arrival of Aircraft 6- Bad Weather
7- Maintenance Problems 8- Other factors
As indicated in graph, the other factors take the large share in the delay reasons,
yemenia should review all the delay items category so that the other reasons well
defined in the analysis and re casted in the right way. Also similar category should be
merge to be one category as maintenance and technical.
This lead us to the result of the analysis, so
Number of Delays
with less than 20 min =121 delays
with cumulative time = 1355 min
Number of Delays
with greater than 20 min =87 delays
with cumulative time = 4185 min
but for technical delays, it take larger time to fix and rectify in spite of hidden
function issues
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5. Summary:
1- The analysis show the un
availability of support fleet ,
as the scheduling designed
with one supported aircraft.
But in some cases of two
aircraft grounded in the same
time led to a total mess in
scheduling that need to
rescheduling and delay the
other flights.
2- The technical delay have the
majority causes of delays, and
when its happen , its take a long time.
3- In spite of the impact of transit passengers on delay, the maximum allowable
time period for transit passengers is 45-60 min, but the delay period may reach
to 5 hours or more and effects on the airline image in the market.
4- Advanced and prior corporation between commercial and technical
departments so that they adapted and implemented a the right scheduling
without interruption based on the sound of the market.
5- Brand name of the airline in the market may get lose, if the airline repeat these
delays, and changing the capacities of aircrafts in the last minutes.
Figure ( 4 ) Frequency Distribution of Delay Periods
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