Airline traffic forecasting, is address the targets that the airline try to achieved, based on the 3 years historical data and setting the constrains levels of the airline, and applying Max/Min signal tracking analysis, the results are fairs and consequently we can setup the KPI.

1. Mohammed Salem Awad
Aden Regional Director
YEMENIA
Date of Issue:
30 Nov 2014

2. “Excellence is never an
accident. It is always the
result of high intention,
sincere effort, and
intelligent execution; it
represents the wise choice
of many alternatives -
choice, not chance,
determines your destiny.”
― Aristotle
Aristotle

3. • RYANAIR
• Data Base.
• Forecasting Approach
• Mathematical Model
• Forecasting Accuracy
• Signal Tracking Analysis
• Passengers Evaluation
• Model Vs Actual
• Measuring The Error
• RYANAIR ON SPOT
• Passenger Forecasting
2015 – graph
• Passenger Forecasting
2015 – Table
• Contact

4. Ryanair is Europe’s only ultra-low
cost carrier (ULCC), operating more
than 1,600 daily flights (over
500,000 per year) from 57 bases,
across 1,600 low fare routes,
connecting 180 destinations in 29
countries and operating a fleet of
303 new Boeing 737-800 aircraft.
Ryanair has recently announced firm orders for a further 175 new
Boeing aircraft, which will be delivered between 2014 and 2018.
Ryanair currently has a team of more than 9,000 highly skilled
professionals, will carry over 81.5 million passengers this year and
has an outstanding 29-year safety record.

6. Defining the Max/Min S. T. in the control band.
Golden Rule -4 < Signal Tracking < + 4
And Coefficient of Determination > 80 %

7. We will use the concept of
Forecasting by Objectives
to develop a fair matrix decision, so forecasting by
objective ; can be either by:
- Classical Method by Evaluation R2
- Setting Signal Tracking S. T. (36 ) to Zero
- Defining the Max/Min S. T. in the control band.
- Targeting the final results of the annual long term
forecast.
- Reflecting the impact of the most recent monthly
data.
Golden Rule -4 < Signal Tracking < + 4
And Coefficient of Determination > 80 %

8. Rotational Vs Displacement

9. (R) Coefficient of Determination
Vs Signal Tracking

10. Max/Min S. T. in the control Range.
Golden Rule -4 < Signal Tracking < + 4
And R Coefficient of Determination > 80 %

13. For 36 data set only two reading that
exceeds 5 % errors.
All the remaining reading for 3 years data
base are below 5 % errors !!!!!!!!

14. ON TARGET
PASSENGERS
FORECASTING
2015

17. Welcome in the Club :

18. Contact :
smartdecision2002@yahoo.com
www.slideshare.net/airports_forecasting
Date of Issue:
30 Nov 2014