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Challenge and Reconstruct Learning, Mekong Delta

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The Mekong Region Futures Institute introduced the concept of Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL), the use of this in cross sectoral negotiations in the Mekong delta, and lessons learned.

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Challenge and Reconstruct Learning, Mekong Delta

  1. 1. Challenge  and  Reconstruct  Learning  (ChaRL):  cross  sectoral   nego6a6ons  in  the  Mekong  delta                                                     Dr  John  Ward    Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute                    October  2015    
  2. 2. Sustainability  =  conflict  between  compe4ng   interests  sectors   &   Sustainability  =  complexity   ê   advances  in  complex  system  methods   ê widening  policy-­‐science  gap   ê engagement  process  to  promote  systems   learning!!   MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  3. 3. Policy  arenas  vary:  structured  and  unstructured  problems     Structured  Problem   excluded  knowledge   =  con6nuing  conflict   excluded  values   =  con6nuing  conflict       Unstructured  problem     Consensus of values Certaintyoffactsandknowledge NoYes Yes No Increasing science-policy gap MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  4. 4. MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute   Policy  has  to  do  with  man’s  problems  with  coping  with  his  future   …..policy  brings  to  statement  what  is  judged  to  be  possible,   desirable  and  meaningful  for  the  human  enterprise.  In  this   sense  policy  is  the  nexus  of  fact,  value  and  ul6mate  meaning  in   which  scien4fic,  ethical  and  theological-­‐philosophical  reflec4ons   meet.”  (Winter  1966)  
  5. 5. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  6. 6. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  7. 7. Mekong Delta Seal Level Rise and salinity intrusion 3 rice crops 2 rice crops rainfed rice shrimp rice-shrimp Salinity iso-line (4 g/l) Salinity intrusion effects: -  Local agricultural land uses -  Farmer’s livelihoods -  National food security and exports Levels of salinity intrusion: -  Climate change-induced SLR -  Droughts -  Upstream water use changes -  Land uses and salinity management MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  8. 8. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  9. 9. Step 2: Shared visions for the Mekong Delta in 2040 0.2  ha  rice-­‐shrimp  farming  can  sustain  family   No  damage  from  sea  level  rise   No  environmental  pollution   No  salinity  intrusion   Irrigation  for  aquaculture  projects  provide  better  living  conditions   Industrial  development  projects  provide  better  living  conditions   Government  policies  respond  successfully  to  environmental  challenges     -­‐>  control  of  industrial  pollution  and  disease   Government  policies  improve  a  poor  family’s  living  conditions     MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  10. 10. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  11. 11. Step 3: Existing beliefs Stakeholder  beliefs   Scien6fic  evidence   Hard  adapta4on  measures   improve  livelihoods     SoP  adapta4on  measures   improve  livelihoods     MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  12. 12. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  13. 13. Salinity intrusion + Dams + drought More saline land and less rice production (282,000 households) SLR by 30 cm: 50,000 ha affected ( of 1.8m ha) • 120,000 tonnes less rice (23m tonnes) SLR 30 cm + dams + drought 500,000 ha affected •  1,000,000 tonnes less rice MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  14. 14. Recommended  policy:    the  upgrade  of  exis4ng   sea-­‐dikes  and   construc4on  of  major   estuary  sluice  gates    in   Cai  Lon,  Cai  Be,  Ham   Luong  and  Co  Chien   rivers.     13,000  ha  of  land  use   change          355,000 ha <2g/l MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  15. 15. Recommended  Policy:   land  use  change:       180,000  ha  land  use   change     up  to  8  farming   systems     exis4ng  rice  shrimp   retained   MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  16. 16. Principle adaptation options 1.  Challenge  and  Reconstruct  Learning  (ChaRL)   Large-­‐scale  sluice  gates  and  dikes  (Hard  adapta6on)   –  $5b-­‐$8b  investment  required   –  Some  land-­‐use  change  has  to  be  reversed   –  Annual  maintenance  costs  of  about  $500m   –  Main  risk:  damage/loss  to  storm  surge  and  erosion   Land-­‐use  change  (SoT  adapta6on)   –  Incen4ve  schemes  for  re-­‐op4mised  land  use   –  Re-­‐organisa4on  of  farm  systems  and  market  access   –  Main  risk:  livelihoods  in  extreme  years/events     MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  17. 17. Challenged beliefs Ini6al  beliefs   Post  ChaRL  beliefs   Hard  adapta4on  measures   improve  livelihood     Most  effec4ve  response  to   salinity  intrusion  combines   hard  and  soP  measures     SoP  adapta4on  measures   improve  livelihood     Small-­‐scale  infrastructure  and   land-­‐use  change  most   effec4ve  adapta4on     MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  18. 18. Final  workshop:     amended  beliefs  and  learning   –  Less polarized debate between agencies –  Greater recognition of sectoral feedbacks and tradeoffs –  Integrated research approaches and multi sectoral deliberations favoured –  Avoid panaceas: diversity in policy deliberations and targeted implementation strategies –  Some science outputs readily adopted (eg rice salinity tolerance) Structured problems –  a different science role in unstructured problems: sustained negotiation and iterative solutions MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  19. 19. Final  workshop:     amended  beliefs  and  learning   – Emphasize the importance of the participatory process to discover adaptation strategies – Accounting for National development agendas is crucial MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  20. 20. Key  lessons  from  ChaRL:   1.  To avoid project irrelevance and sustain engagement, Partners need to identify the problem and co-design research and criteria of success 2.  Cross sectoral impact can only be achieved through participatory processes if: A.  The problem involves multiple sectors with contested values and objectives AND B.  The problem requires integration of multiple sources of uncertain information and knowledge 3.  Developing future visions is a crucial step to replace sector objectives with a plausible shared normative benchmark 4.  Use tools/methods to manage complexity and assist decision makers discover sustainable solutions 5.  Evaluation metrics need to correspond with the research question. E.g. Systems learning MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  21. 21. Thank  You     Dr  John  Ward  (MERFI)   john.ward@merfi.org         Dr  Alexander  Smajgl  (MERFI)    alex.smajgl@merfi.org           MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
  22. 22. Changing  beliefs   Workshops  1  &  2   Workshops  3  &  4   Workshop  5   Sea  dikes  will  reduce   salinity  and  increase   agricultural  produc4on   Hard  adapta4on   measures  improve   livelihood     Most  effec4ve  response  to   salinity  intrusion  combines  hard   and  soP  measures   New  rice  varie4es  help   increase  produc4on   under  increasing  salinity   SoP  adapta4on  measures   improve  livelihoods   It  is  not  necessary  to  do  “big   dykes”  but  small  construc4ons   are  more  important   Sea  dikes  create  risk  for   rice  as  storm  surges   increase   Sea  dikes  will  reduce   water  quality     Small-­‐scale  infrastructure  and   land-­‐use  change  most  effec4ve   adapta4on   Shrimp-­‐rice  rota4on   farming  increases  farm   income     Salinity  increase  triggers   emigra4on   Rice–aquaculture  is  best  along   rivers/canals    (mainly  fish,  less   shrimp)   Upstream  dams  cause   water  shortage  in  the   Mekong  Delta   Improved  educa4on   improves  adap4ve   capacity  and  livelihoods   Investments  need  to  be   priori4sed  and  go  to  most   vulnerable  areas   MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  23. 23. MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute   •  Smajgl  A,  Ward  J,  2013.  A  framework  to  bridge  science  &  policy…     Futures,  52(8),  52-­‐58.     •  Foran  T,  Kemp-­‐Benedict  E,  Ward  J,  Smajgl  A,  2013.  A  technique…foresight...  Ecology  and   Society,  18(4).6.   •  Smajgl,  A.,  &  Ward,  J.  (2015).  A  design  …  research  impact  evalua4on…   Journal  of  Environmental  Management,  157,  311-­‐319.     •  Smajgl,  A.,  Foran,  T.,  Dore,  J.,  Ward,  J.,  &  Larson,  S.  (2015).  Visions,  beliefs…  Ecology  and   Society,  20(2):15.     •  Smajgl  A,  Xu,  J,  Egan,  S.,  YI,  Z.-­‐F.,  Su,  Y.,Ward  J,  2015.  Assessing  …PES...China     Environmental  Modelling  and  So@ware,  69,  187-­‐195.     •  Smajgl,  A.,  Toan,  T.Q.,  Nhan,  D.K.,  Ward,  J.,  Trung,  N.H.  ,  Tri,  L.Q.,  Tri,  V.P.D.,  Vu,  P.T.  (2015).   Responding  to  rising  sea-­‐levels  in  Vietnam’s  Mekong  Delta.     Nature  Climate  Change,  5,  167-­‐174.  
  24. 24. Shrimp can increase income by 50% Farming   systems   Total  variable  costs   Gross  return   Gross   margin   Benefit-­‐ cost   ra4o  Rice   Shrimp   Rice   Shrimp   Two  rice   crops     (n  =  46)   25.3  ±  1.1   46.8  ±   2.0   21.6  ±  1.9   0.9  ±  0.1   Rice  –   shrimp     (n  =  48)   6.0  ±  0.6   24.1  ±   7.9   16.3  ±   2.1   50.4  ±   9.5   36.8  ±  5.1   1.2  ±  0.3   MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  25. 25. Salt tolerant rice crops improve livelihoods 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Salinity (‰) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Yields(tonsha-1 ) Tolerant Less tolerant Sensitive Tolerant: Y = 5.1 - 0.2X - 0.02X2 Less tolerant: Y = 5.3 - 0.9X + 0.05X2 Sensitive: Y = 5.0 - 1.4X + 0.1X2 MERFI  -­‐  Mekong  Region  Futures  Ins6tute  
  26. 26. Downscaled   climate   projec6ons   Land  use  and  crop   modeling  in  a   changing  climate   Ecological   stocks  and   flows   Dams  and   irriga6on   Livelihoods  and   adapta6on   poten6al   Ci6es  and   estuaries   Research  elements   Basin  hydrological   run  off  model:   sediments    nutrients   Floodplain   dynamics:  floods   and  salinity   MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute