Marketing has become extremely data-driven. I don't love it, but we need to go with it. That means finding more and better ways to track attribution across channels. This slide deck explains some basic techniques - Pearson Correlation and holdout testing - that you can use to connect channel performance to business KPIs.
10. WHAT I WON’T DISCUSS
learn the rules
before you use
the tools
GOOGLE ANALYTICS
R LANGUAGE
TABLEAU SOFTWARE
OTHER FANCY STUFF
LOVE IT ALL. BUT let's
STICK TO TOOLS WE
ALL KNOW AND HAVE,
NO MATTER what
11. HOW DO WE KNOW IF
THIS IS WORKING? WE
CAN'T TRACK IT.
THOSE ARE CALL
CENTER LEADS.
INTERNET MARKETING
HAD NOTHING TO DO
WITH IT.
WE’VE ALL KNOWN DESPAIR
I WANT TO STOP THE
CONTENT CAMPAIGN.
IT'S NOT EARNING ANY
MONEY.
I'M AFRAID THE WEB
IS JUST
CANNIBALIZING
DIRECT MAIL.
DON'T BUY PPC FOR OUR
NAME. WE ALREADY RANK
#1. IT'S A WASTE OF
SOCIAL MEDIA
MONEY.
DOESN'T CONVERT.
12. WE’VE ALL KNOWN DESPAIR
gaaaah i can't take it.
attribution?!!!!
hahahahahah i'll attribute
my sanity to finding a job
at a bicycle shop
bwahahahahahahaha
13. CORRELATION IS YOUR FRIEND
Car Speed
Car top speed vs. age of American Male
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
CLEAR
CORRELATION
30
35
40
45
50
Age
55
60
65
70
14. CORRELATION IS YOUR FRIEND
WORST ENEMY
Car Speed
Car top speed vs. age of American Male
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
BUT… WHY?
30
35
40
45
50
Age
55
60
65
70
15. CORRELATION IS YOUR FRIEND
WORST ENEMY
MIDDLE-AGED AMERICAN MEN ARE
COMPENSATING FOR SOMETHING
OR
ALL AMERICAN MEN LIKE TOYS, AND
CAN AFFORD THEM AT MIDDLE AGE
16. LATE-NIGHT SNACKING
MAKES YOU FAT
WRONG
Late night snacks vs. weight gain
50
Weight gain (lbs)
40
30
20
10
0
0
2
4
6
Snacks/week
8
10
17. WHY IS IT WRONG?
THERE IS NO CAUSAL LINK.
OR, AS STATISTICIANS LIKE
TO SAY…
27. OVERALL RESULT
(all channels)
Average revenue
value generated
from all channels
of a single
address
List Size
Total sales
Revenue/address
Total
400,000
$250,000.00
$0.63
Held out
20,000
$5,000.00
$0.25
E-mailed
20,000
$12,000.00
$0.60
Revenue from all
channels for each
segment
28. OVERALL RESULT
(all channels)
E-mail caused
these customers
to buy more, no
matter where
they came from.
Organic Search
PPC
Social
E-mail
Total
$0.20
$1.25
$0.11
$0.63
Held out
$0.17
$0.90
$0.02
$0.25
E-mailed
$0.21
$1.24
$0.13
$0.60
Ah HA! Held out segment
generated less value from
other channels, too.
29. OVERALL RESULT
(all channels)
Now you
estimate impact
by channel.
Organic Search
PPC
Social
E-mail
Total
$0.20
$1.25
$0.11
$0.63
Held out
$0.17
$0.90
$0.02
$0.25
E-mailed
$0.21
$1.24
$0.13
$0.60
E-mail appears to boost PPC
revenue/customer 39%
45. WHICH COLUMNS?
HERE, WE’RE CHECKING
FOR CONNECTIONS
BETWEEN SOCIAL MEDIA
ACTIVITY AND REVENUE,
SO I’M STARTING WITH ONE
SOCIAL MEDIA METRIC AND
OVERALL REVENUE
70. MORE COMMON SENSE
THAT MAY MEAN THE E-MAIL
PROMO LOOSENED THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EMAIL AND SOCIAL. SO WE RUN
ANOTHER CORRELATION
EXCLUDING THE DAYS OF THE
PROMO.
72. THE RESULT
YOU CAN AT LEAST DEMONSTRATE
THERE’S A STRONG CONNECTION
BETWEEN REVENUE AND SOCIAL,
EVEN IF SOCIAL DOESN’T
DIRECTLY GENERATE THAT
REVENUE.
73. NEXT STEP?
DO A HOLDOUT TEST (COUGH) –
STOP POSTING FOR 2 WEEKS.
TRY TO REALLY SPIKE SOCIAL
MEDIA ACTIVITY AND SEE HOW
THAT IMPACTS OVERALL REVENUE.
74. CAUTION
DON’T TRY TO ‘FIT’ THE DATA TO
YOUR EXPECTATIONS
IF COMMON SENSE <> THE DATA,
GO WITH COMMON SENSE UNTIL
PROVEN OTHERWISE