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Deck GIL 2014 MONACO : Mega Trends Synthesis

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Tech & Digital Trends 2018
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Deck GIL 2014 MONACO : Mega Trends Synthesis

  1. 1. GIL 2014: MONACO The Global Community of Growth, Innovation and Leadership #GILMonaco
  2. 2. Fast-Forward to 2025: New Mega Trends Transforming the World as We Know It Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Personal Lives
  3. 3. 1.Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends 2.Key Insights into the Global Mega Trends 3.Conclusions 4.The Macro to Micro Approach 3 Agenda
  4. 4. What is a Mega Trend? What is a Mega Trend? Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies, economies, cultures and personal lives. Urbanization – City as a Customer Smart is the New Green Social Trends Connectivity and Convergence Bricks and Clicks Innovating to Zero New Business Models: Value for Many Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers Future Infrastructure Development Health, Wellness and Well Being Future of Mobility 4 Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation Research Division Future of Energy
  5. 5. 5 Mega Trends Universe We Track* *This list is not exhaustive
  6. 6. 6 News Headlines in 2025 Robots have entered our homes for personal use. Sensory devices guide our everyday lives. Mobile financial transactions are now in crypto-currencies. Big data has entered the Zettabyte era. 3D printing is commonplace. 4D printing is gaining mainstream acceptance . High Speed Rail to connect from China to Europe. There are 6 million autonomous cars in Europe and North America. Summer Sale: Low-cost holidays in space.
  7. 7. Connectivity & Convergence
  8. 8. Digital Currency: $11 billion worth of Bitcoins in circulation currently Connected Living: $730 Billion Market Opportunity in 2020 Personal Robots: Robots priced between $1,566 and $4,699 could enter our personal lives 3D/4D Printing: $7.3 Billion Market Opportunity by 2020 Augmented Reality/Virtual World: New Markets of Augmented Shopping and Virtual Commerce Space Jam: 1,213 Total Number of satellites globally by 2021 4D Printing: Self- assembling objects could enter our lives by 2050 Nanobots: Swarms of Nanobots could enter manufacturing and energy by 2030 Sensorization of Devices: From Touchscreen to Brain-controlled devices Wearable Devices: Over $11 billion market estimated for 2020 Big Data: 40% annual growth in big data to 2020 80 Billion Connected Devices in 2020 and $14.7Tr internet economy Powered Exoskeletons : Self- assembling objects could enter our lives by 2050
  9. 9. 9 Source: Frost & Sullivan Connected Home – 31% Connected Work –15% Connected City – 54% •Home Automation •Home Energy •Home Health •Home Entertainment •Mobility - Mobile email, Unified Communication •Mobile Working •Enterprise Social Networking •eGovernance •eCitizens •Personal and Freight Mobility •E-learning •Mobile banking Sub Trend: Future Connected Living Ecosystem Connected life contains three important aspects of connected home, connected city, and connected work Connected Living Total Market: $730 Billion in 2020
  10. 10. 10 QIVICON B2B Business Hub including partners from… Health (E.g Tunstall) Multimedia (E.g Samsung) Automation (E.g Belkin) Security (E.g Pax) Energy EnBW, Solon Appliances, electronics (A&E) Miele, Samsung QIVICON CONNECTED HOME PLATFORM for consumers aggregating service from all partners. Consumer Homes B2B B2B2C Case Study: Connected Home’s B2B Platform Of Deutsche Telekom
  11. 11. 11 Sub Trend: Sensorization of Things Multi-Factor sensory-based trackers revolutionise the field of human interaction and personal identification 2000s 2014 2015 2020 2025+ 2025+ 2020 2015 2014 2000s Eye Facial Voice Touch Gesture Gaze controlled Games Mobile Eye Scrolling phones Eye Tracking Analytics in cars Pay with Face Face Scanners Tactical Identification System Voice Search (Google) Speech Recognition Personal Digital Assistant AMOLED Touch Screens Holographic Touchscreen 3D Air gesture control of Mobile devices Sensory Tracking Technology in Consumers Devices Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis 3D modelling on computers Brain Mind Controlled Games Mind Remotes for TV Mind Controlled Cars Gesture Gaming
  12. 12. Sub Trend: Big Data Analytics 90% of the data in the world has been created in the last two years alone Source: IBM, Cisco, Frost & Sullivan Analysis 12 Global Data Traffic in Zettabytes, 2010-2025 Global Big Data Market in $ billion, 2010-2025 2010 2020 2025 2015 3.56 87.85 122.6 47.37 2010 2020 2025 2015 1.2 34.1 100.2 7.6 Global Data Traffic to Cross 100 Zettabytes annually by 2025 Global Big Data Market to generate a revenue of over $122 billion by 2025
  13. 13. Reality to Virtual World Reality Augmented Reality Augmented Virtuality Virtual World Virtual Repair and Maintenance Virtual Designing 13 Sub Trend : Augmented Reality and Virtual World
  14. 14. 14 Implication: Connectivity Is Pushing Convergence Connectivity will Accelerate Convergence of Industries, Products, Technologies and Competition INDUSTRIES PRODUCTS Car Unmanned Technology Autonomous Cars TECHNOLOGIES Building Technologies Smart Automation Smart Home Hubs Space Industry Solar Industry Space Based Solar Power 1 3 2 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis Image Source:: `Creative Commons and Dreamstime.
  15. 15. Bricks and Clicks 15
  16. 16. Future of Clicks in Retail Industry Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting for 19% of Total Retail $11.8 Trillion $23 Trillion $18.7 Trillion $11.25 Trillion $4.3 Trillion $0.55 Trillion Online Sales Non-Online Sales 5% 95% 19% 81% 16 2011 2025 United States $1.32 Trillion 24% 18% China $1.30 Trillion United Kingdom $0.21 Trillion Germany $0.09 Trillion Japan $0.17 Trillion 26% 15% 10%
  17. 17. UK Retail – Online Vs. Non Online Online Retail Sales to Account for nearly 1/3rd of Total Retail Sales by 2025 17 Source: Office for National Statistics, IMRG, and Frost & Sullivan Analysis •Social commerce has an estimated $1 billion market value in the UK •Mobile now accounts for 51% of the total retail time spent by consumers on digital modes •9 of top ten retailers in the UK offer either click n collect / in-store pick up options to customers •35% of sales on JohnLewis.com take click and collect service £323.5 Billion £460 Billion £38.8 Billion £284.7 Billion 12.5% online 87.5% Offline £122 Billion £338 Billion 27% online 73% Offline 2013 2020
  18. 18. 18 Fully Digital, Retail-Style Cyberstore One-stop Experience for Entire Model Range Gamification, Augmented Reality Offers Tailor- made services Specially Trained Dealer Personnel Interactivity London Flagship Store Highly personalized customer dialogue Case Study: Audi City London - First Digital Car Showroom Example of Future Digital Car Showrooms that will be “Unlimited”, Personalised, Socially Connected and Digitally Integrated
  19. 19. 19 Retail Strategy Channel Strategy Fulfillment Strategy No direct retailing Direct retailing in selected regions; target enthusiasts and DIY segments Sell through dealer estores Own web store; dealer estores; marketplace (ex. BMW Direct on eBay) Primarily click ‘n’ collect from existing dealerships Likely to explore both click ‘n’ collect and direct delivery CLICK AND POST CLICK AND FIT (dealership/mobile CLICK AND COLLECT Case Study: BMW’s Parts eRetailing Strategy
  20. 20. 20 Urban Transhipment Areas Urban Consolidation Centres Urban Intermodal Hubs Locker Boxes Microdistribution Mobile Depots / Freight Buses Sub Trend: Future of Consolidation and Last Mile Delivery More Bundling, Intermodality and Microdistribution in Urban Areas Types of Urban Distribution Types of Urban Last-mile Deliveries One Hour Deliveries Click ‘n’ Collect
  21. 21. Smart is the New Green
  22. 22. 22
  23. 23. 20.93 14.11 16.65 13.75 9.09 15.26 10.21 Smart Infrastructure3 CAGR: 8.9% (2012-2020) Smart cities To Create Huge Business Opportunities With A Market Value Of $1.5 Trillion By 2020 1 2 4 5 6 Smart Governance and Smart Education2 CAGR: 12.4% (2012-2020) Smart Energy CAGR: 19.6% (2012-2020) Smart Transportation CAGR: 14.8% (2012-2020) Smart Healthcare CAGR: 6.9% (2012-2020) Smart Building CAGR: 8.8% (2012-2020) 7 Smart City Market by Segments,1 Global, 2020 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Note: The graph represent the market share of each segment in the smart city market. For more information on smart city market sectors please refer to appendix Smart City Market 2Smart Education includes eLearning services for schools, universities, enterprises, and government entities 1These numbers represent the entire smart solutions eco-system in each segment for both urban and non-urban panoramas Smart Security CAGR: 14% (2012-2020) 3 3Other Smart Infrastructure such as sensor networks, digital management of water utilities not included in other segments 23
  24. 24. There Are Four Different Roles Smart Cities Players Can Take 24 Pure-Play Product Vendors Managed Service Providers Network Service Providers Integrators Smart city integrators are project integrators that bring together various sectors of the smart city through pre-packaged platforms thereby providing a unified , holistic and end-to-end integration of multiple sectors Example: IBM, Accenture Smart city network providers offer collaborative networks, data analytics and enterprise working solutions that connect people, assets, systems and products by leveraging on their networking and M2M capabilities. Example: Cisco, Verizon, Ericsson, AT&T 1 2 3 4 Smart city product vendors provide “hard assets” like smart meters and distribution devices (e.g., automated switches, controllers for capacitor banks and voltage regulators) that operate as the main nodes of connectivity. Example: Eaton, Honeywell, ABB, Schneider Electric, Siemens Smart city managed service providers offer round-the-clock monitoring, complete management, compliance monitoring, and on-site consulting. These services are provided either in-house, co-managed, or are completely outsourced (third party providers) Example: IBM, Serco, SAIC, Infosys
  25. 25. 25 Smart Cities Business Models Majority of smart city projects are developed under Build Operate Manage (BOM) business model Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Build Operate Manage Build Operate Transfer Build Own Operate Open Business Model
  26. 26. Social Trends
  27. 27. 27
  28. 28. Heterogeneous Society Divide by Income Sub Trend: Heterogeneous Society The global population is getting more diverse with US and Canada being the most heterogeneous societies Source: Frost & Sullivan Divide by Age Divide by Gender Divide by Ethnicity
  29. 29. 29 Heterogeneous Society Case Study : New Generation’s Boomerang Effect The son is back
  30. 30. Women Empowerment Demographic shifts are driving the empowerment of women Female junior exec pay in the UK is rising faster than male counterparts’ Earnings There are 117 female directors of FTSE 100 companies By 2020 over half of millionaires in the UK will be female Wealth Entrepreneurship The number of women- owned businesses increased by 59% in the US since 2000 Leadership 1 Education Women are getting the majority of higher education awards Power In Nordic countries women could soon have equal political power 2 3 4 5 6
  31. 31. Women Dominate Social Media Women are the routers and amplifiers of the social web 127m active users 50% Female 90m active visitors 82% Female So What? Women are said to control between 80% and 90% of key spending categories worldwide Women are said to be more likely than men to interact with and about brands online Women in the UK are said to control online purchasing (60%) and mobile purchasing (one in six women compared to one in nine men) 845m active users 57% Female 150m active users 68% Female
  32. 32. Future Of Mobility 32 32
  33. 33. Future of Mobility Micro-mobility Integrated mobility Global car sharing Parking management Zero emission taxis New business models Connected cars Telematics based insurance Autonomous Cars Demand Response Management
  34. 34. Economic Trends
  35. 35. Sub Trend : The Next Game Changers in 2025 High GDP growth, improved FDIs, and rapid industrialization to give rise to a new lot of emerging countries, beyond BRIC nations, that contend to become next decade’s economic leaders $2,327 Billion $1,041 Billion $2,441 Billion $653 Billion $772 Billion $323 Billion $483 Billion Mexico Egypt Turkey Poland Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Philippines Next Game Changers Note : The figure denotes GDP at market prices. Forecasts to 2025 have been extrapolated based on Nominal GDP growth rate projections Source: International Monetary Fund. Oxford Economics, Frost & Sullivan, $3,071 Billion $730 Billion Nigeria The trillion dollar economies 35
  36. 36. Sub Trend : Future of Resources – Redrawing the Resource Map Discovery of new technologies and energy sources has altered the global energy landscape making key resources such as water, food, and minerals more easily accessible Signs of Shortage Technologies/ New Discoveries Future Availability of Resource +30% demand by 2030 (IFPRI) •Smart water •Wastewater treatment •Water desalination Water desalination could cover close to 5% of the estimated gap in supply of freshwater +40% demand by 2030 (IEA) •Smart grid •Energy Harvesting •Shale Gas Shale gas to contribute 46% of the total US gas supply in 2035 +50% demand by 2030 (FAO) •Genetically modified food (Golden rice) •Synthetic meat •Smart farming Golden rice could deliver 15-20% of the daily nutrition requirements by 2030 Water Energy Food Source: FAO, IEA, IFPRI, WHO, and Frost & Sullivan Analysis 36
  37. 37. Conclusion
  38. 38. Macro Micro From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation Mega Trend Selected trends that impact your business and markets Sub Trend A sub-layer of trends that has a wide ranging impact Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario- building and macro economic forecasts Impact on Future Product/ Technology Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs To 38