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Supply and Trade focus
Alvin Rosvoll, Head of Supply and Trade
1




Supply & Trade - Global optimization                                                                        Downstream


                                                                                                            S&T
                                                                                               Industrial
                                                                                                                  Upstream




  Biggest industrial buyer of                 Third single biggest buyer of               Significant market
                                                                                          Global trade (mt)
    natural gas in Europe                             P&K globally                          share on trade

  Gas consumption, MMBtu                     2011 raw material purchases (mt)         Annual trade volumes (mt)

    185                                                                  7.5                          40
                                               7.0



                                                     5.0

                                    100
                                                                                          20


                                                                                                                  11
                                                           1.8
                     25                                                         1.0

                                                                                         25%         10%          30%

   Europe         Canada            RoW        Potash, MOP       Phosphate, rock       Ammonia       Urea         NPK

                                                      China      India         Yara                Yara share




     Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
2




Converting Brunsbüttel feedstock to gas

                                             USD/MMBtu
                                              16
   Cheaper feedstock
                                              14

                                              12
   Improved efficiency
                                              10

                                               8
   Lower emissions
                                               6

                                               4
   Improved flexibility
                                               2

                                               0
                                                     2010             2011          2012


                                                            Brunsbüttel      European spot price




     Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
3




Reduced exposure to oil and European gas

    Yara’s geographic energy exposure                           Yara’s feed-stock contract structure Europe

100 %                                                            NAT
                                                                 GAS
90 %
                                                                                         15 %
80 %                                                                           25 %
70 %
60 %                                                                                                      90 %
                                                                                                  80 %
                                                                       70 %              65 %
50 %
                                                                               55 %
40 %
30 %
20 %                                                                                                      -10 %
                                                                               -20 %    -20 %     -20 %
10 %                                                                   -30 %

 0%                                                              NON
            2006         2007          2008       2009   2012    GAS   2006    2009      2010     2012    2013
                            Europe          ROW                                        Non gas*




        Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
4



Profitable spot strategy on natural
gas in Europe


  €/MWh

  35

  30

  25

  20

  15

  10

   5
       Q1 '06          Q4 '06          Q3 '07   Q2 '08   Q1 '09   Q4 '09   Q3 '10   Q2 '11   Q1 '12   Q4 '12


                                      Quarter-Ahead: 21.1€/MWh       Day-Ahead: 19.1€/MWh




       Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
5




Neutral impact of ETS phase III introduction

            Emissions from European ammonia plants                            N2O emission from European nitric acid plants
 t CO2/ t                                                           kg N2O/t
   NH3                                                               HNO3
   3,5                                                                16

  3,0                                                                14

                                                                     12
  2,5
                                                                     10
  2,0
                                                                      8
  1,5
                                                                      6
  1,0
                                                                      4

  0,5                                                                 2

  0,0                                                                 0
        1                                                     56          1                                                   109
                             Number of ammonia plants                                    Number of nitric acid plants

            CO2 generated (feed,fuel,steam,electr)      Benchmark                      benchmark data           Benchmark




     Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
6




Yara is long on ammonia but short in Europe

                                               Europe
                                                        6.1
                                             4.9


                                                        5.1
                                                                                   • Yara-operated ammonia fleet
                                                                                     unrivalled giving scale and
                                                                                     flexibility
                                       Available     Use

        Americas                   Middle East / Africa

    1.9            2.1                 1.5
                                                   1.1
                                                                      Asia
                                                                                   • Operate 15-18 ships
                                                                             0.7


  Available       Use              Available       Use        Available      Use   • Total shipping capacity of ~260
                                                                   Australia         kilotons
                                                                0.8

     Marketing agreement                                                     0.3

     Yara production
     External sales                                           Available      Use
     Upgrade




     Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
7



Degree of vertical integration in
phosphate and potash

  Phosphate rock supply and use (mt)                                Potash supply and use (mt)


                 1.9                       1.9                           1.9             1.9




                 1.0                                                                     1.1
                                           1.4




                 0.9                                                                     0.8
                                           0.5


              Source                       Use                          Source           Use


                            External sourcing    Own production   NPK plant      Other



   Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
8



Phosphate and potash strategy
redefined in 2009

   NPK business heavily impacted in
    2008/09                                   Capacity utilization 2009
                                                          97%
                                             90%

   Decided to intensify search for P & K
    projects:
                                                                          63%
     –    Hedging
     –    Finder’s fee


   Not pursuing fully developed and fully
    priced mines

                                             Urea        Nitrates         NPK
   Control of phosphate rock sourcing
    especially important due to quality
    and productivity aspects

     Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
9



Yara mining established to create more focus
on mining activities

   Operations of existing mine in Finland            Siilinjärvi

    has brought important competence to
    Yara in the field of mining
                                             Dallol

   Currently working on four projects,
    important decisions regarding all four
    expected during 2013


   Considered unlikely that all four will
    materialize


   No commitment from Yara at this
    stage to execute any of the projects



     Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December

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CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

  • 1. Supply and Trade focus Alvin Rosvoll, Head of Supply and Trade
  • 2. 1 Supply & Trade - Global optimization Downstream S&T Industrial Upstream Biggest industrial buyer of Third single biggest buyer of Significant market Global trade (mt) natural gas in Europe P&K globally share on trade Gas consumption, MMBtu 2011 raw material purchases (mt) Annual trade volumes (mt) 185 7.5 40 7.0 5.0 100 20 11 1.8 25 1.0 25% 10% 30% Europe Canada RoW Potash, MOP Phosphate, rock Ammonia Urea NPK China India Yara Yara share Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
  • 3. 2 Converting Brunsbüttel feedstock to gas USD/MMBtu 16  Cheaper feedstock 14 12  Improved efficiency 10 8  Lower emissions 6 4  Improved flexibility 2 0 2010 2011 2012 Brunsbüttel European spot price Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
  • 4. 3 Reduced exposure to oil and European gas Yara’s geographic energy exposure Yara’s feed-stock contract structure Europe 100 % NAT GAS 90 % 15 % 80 % 25 % 70 % 60 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 65 % 50 % 55 % 40 % 30 % 20 % -10 % -20 % -20 % -20 % 10 % -30 % 0% NON 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 GAS 2006 2009 2010 2012 2013 Europe ROW Non gas* Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
  • 5. 4 Profitable spot strategy on natural gas in Europe €/MWh 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Q1 '06 Q4 '06 Q3 '07 Q2 '08 Q1 '09 Q4 '09 Q3 '10 Q2 '11 Q1 '12 Q4 '12 Quarter-Ahead: 21.1€/MWh Day-Ahead: 19.1€/MWh Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
  • 6. 5 Neutral impact of ETS phase III introduction Emissions from European ammonia plants N2O emission from European nitric acid plants t CO2/ t kg N2O/t NH3 HNO3 3,5 16 3,0 14 12 2,5 10 2,0 8 1,5 6 1,0 4 0,5 2 0,0 0 1 56 1 109 Number of ammonia plants Number of nitric acid plants CO2 generated (feed,fuel,steam,electr) Benchmark benchmark data Benchmark Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
  • 7. 6 Yara is long on ammonia but short in Europe Europe 6.1 4.9 5.1 • Yara-operated ammonia fleet unrivalled giving scale and flexibility Available Use Americas Middle East / Africa 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.1 Asia • Operate 15-18 ships 0.7 Available Use Available Use Available Use • Total shipping capacity of ~260 Australia kilotons 0.8 Marketing agreement 0.3 Yara production External sales Available Use Upgrade Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
  • 8. 7 Degree of vertical integration in phosphate and potash Phosphate rock supply and use (mt) Potash supply and use (mt) 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 Source Use Source Use External sourcing Own production NPK plant Other Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
  • 9. 8 Phosphate and potash strategy redefined in 2009  NPK business heavily impacted in 2008/09 Capacity utilization 2009 97% 90%  Decided to intensify search for P & K projects: 63% – Hedging – Finder’s fee  Not pursuing fully developed and fully priced mines Urea Nitrates NPK  Control of phosphate rock sourcing especially important due to quality and productivity aspects Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
  • 10. 9 Yara mining established to create more focus on mining activities  Operations of existing mine in Finland Siilinjärvi has brought important competence to Yara in the field of mining Dallol  Currently working on four projects, important decisions regarding all four expected during 2013  Considered unlikely that all four will materialize  No commitment from Yara at this stage to execute any of the projects Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December