1.
COVID-19
IMPACT ANALYSIS
FOR
FOOD & BEVERAGE
INDUSTRY

2.
DIRECT TO CONSUMER BUSINESSES TRADITIONAL DISTRIBUTION
"We have seen a big increase in orders as customers become
increasingly dependent on food delivery services, However,
we have put a number of new processes in place for us to
continue delivering Mindful Chef, whilst prioritizing the safety
of both our customers and team.”
According to Myles Hopper and Giles Humphries
Co-founders at Mindful Chef
"In a statement from British supermarket chain Sainsbury’s, said that in a
response to requests from the general public the store would be setting
aside specific time slots, both in-store and online, to accommodate elderly
and vulnerable customers. It announced it would also be introducing
further restrictions on the number of certain products customers can
purchase at one time.”
According to Mike Coupe CE at Sainsbury’s
C-SUITE LEADER THOUGHT DASHBOARD

3.
2020 2,021 2,022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Food Services and Hospitality 2,729 2,771 2,820 2,878 2,947 3,029 3,127 3,244 3,386 3,557 3,767
Food Ingredient 66 82 86 90 95 101 107 113 120 128 137
Advanced Packaging and Tracking Technologies 25 32 35 38 42 46 51 56 62 70 79
Nutraceutical/Wellness food 718 705 717 729 742 756 771 788 807 828 852
Convenience Food/Frozen Food 176 202 214 227 241 256 273 293 314 337 364
Agriculture & Agri Products 1,635 1,756 1,832 1,915 2,006 2,106 2,216 2,338 2,474 2,625 2,792
Beverages 1,515 1,563 1,618 1,677 1,740 1,808 1,881 1,961 2,048 2,142 2,244
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
• The supply and distribution of goods are likely to impact the CG industry for a short term.
• The adoption of technological platform and solutions to address the growing consumer demand and tackle such pandemic in future will have a
long-term impact on the F&B industry.
• The demand for wellness food and clean label products is expected to increase in the near future. On the contrary, the purchasing power of
consumers is expected to decrease, owing to rise in unemployment across the globe.
• The advanced packaging and tracking technology industry is expected to grow at highest CAGR of 12% throughout the forecast period. Surge in
awareness associated with food safety among both government bodies and customers is a key driver of the industry.
Food & Beverage Industry Forecast (US$ Billion), 2020-2030
3

4.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
01/Apr/03 01/May/03 01/Jun/03 01/Jul/03
30/Apr/03 31/May/03 30/Jun/03 11/Jul/03
Cumulative number of case(s) 5,663 8,360 8,447 8,437
Number of deaths 372 764 811 813
SEVERE ACUTE
RESPIRATORY
SYNDROME
(SARS)
EVOLUTION
Key Takeaways
• Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a life-threatening respiratory disease caused by a recently identified coronavirus, the SARS-
associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV). It is believed to be an animal virus that recently crossed the species barrier to infect humans.
• The first cases of disease in humans were reported in Guangdong province, China, in November 2002, but the syndrome was only recognized
three months later. Following its emergence, transmission of the virus occurred person to person, mostly via droplets (inhalation).
• Along with China, Singapore and Canada are the moderately impacted countries across the globe.
• The overall death rate during SARS has been about 10%, however, exceeded 50% for patients aged over 60 years.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Evolution
4

5.
Global Food & Beverage Industry Size and Forecast, 2018- 2019
GLOBAL
FOOD & BEVERAGE
INDUSTRY SIZE AND
FORECAST, 2019-2020
46.2%
1.0%
0.1%
8.4%
2.8%
22.4%
19.0%
Food Services and Hospitality
Food Ingredient
Advanced Packaging and
Tracking Technologies
Nutraceutical/Wellness food
Convenience Food/Frozen
Food
Agriculture & Agri Products
39.8%
1.0%
0.4%
10.5%
2.6%
23.8%
22.1%
Food Services and Hospitality
Food Ingredient
Advanced Packaging and Tracking
Technologies
Nutraceutical/Wellness food
Convenience Food/Frozen Food
Agriculture & Agri Products
Beverages
FY 2020 (Q1)
• The market size of F&B industry will be $6,864 billion, i.e.,
17.7% less as compared to FY 2019.
• The food services & hospitality, food ingredients, beverages,
agriculture & agri products, and advanced packaging &
tracking technologies are likely to be negatively impacted in
the fiscal year 2020.
• The consumer inclination toward meat-free products and free-
form products has considerable increased during the
pandemic.
FY 2019
• The market size of F&B industry was $8,345 billion in
2019.
• The food service & hospitality sector was leading with
46.0% share in the F&B industry.
• Preference for plant-based food & clean label products
and increase in number of online buyers were the major
trends in the industry in 2019.
Global Food & Beverage Industry Size and Forecast, 2020 E
5

6.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Key Takeaways
• One Asian country and seven European countries are among the ten most affected countries with corona virus, while more European countries
are witnessing an alarming increase in the number of cases.
• U.S. replaced China as the country with the highest COVID-19 cases on March 26, while more than 92% of the global coronavirus cases are
currently outside China.
• Italy was the most affected country in the European region. The death toll in the country is more than 25,000, and number of COVID-19 cases
more than 189,973.
• China witnessed 4,632 death as of April 23, 2020. The number of cases rapidly declined to 58% by March 13 and to 40% by March 18, as the
number of cases in rest of the world surged and Europe became the new epicentre.
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
01/Jan/20 01/Feb/20 01/Mar/20 01/Apr/20
22/Jan/20 22/Feb/20 22/Mar/20 22/Apr/20
Cumulative number of case(s) 580 78,651 337,707 2,635,716
Number of deaths 17 2,460 14,735 184,066
CORONAVIRUS
DISEASE 2019
(COVID-19)
EVOLUTION
6

7.
OPPORTUNITY SCENARIO OF SUB-INDUSTRIES POST COVID-19
Food Ingredient
1. Rise in environmental awareness among consumers has enforced manufacturers to focus on development of alternative to plastic
packaging.
2. Food product manufacturers are further seeking for packaging made from natural sources to increase the shelf life of their products.
3. Smart packaging has become a tool for consumer engagement and market branding opportunity for vendors. Advanced packaging
techniques help dispense relevant information about the condition and expiry of products, thus increasing consumer awareness.
Advanced
Packaging &
Tracking
Technologies
1. The demand for agricultural commodities, investments in key logistics must be enhanced. Moreover, e-commerce and
delivery companies & start-ups need to be encouraged by implementing suitable policies and offering incentives.
2. The small and medium enterprises, running low on raw materials that are supplied from the agriculture and allied sector,
need special attention so that the rural economy does not collapse due to the current economic situation.
Agriculture & Agri
Products
1. Rise in preference for fresh frozen food without preservatives is expected to expand the market growth post COVID-19.
2. Frozen meat, sea food, frozen pizza crust, bread, frozen dough, potatoes, and vegetables are widely used in B2B sectors such
as restaurants . Post lockdown, these categories of frozen food products will witness rise in demand from B2B channels.
Convenience
Food/Frozen Food
1. The consumption of beverages is mostly out of home; the adoption of various delivery channels to deliver beverages at
home is expected to boost the sales post COVID-19.
2. The production of sanitizer by some of the alcohol manufacturers will augment the sale of alcohol, due to significant rise in
demand for sanitizer across the globe.
Beverages
1. The demand for clean label ingredient post COVID-19 is anticipated to increase, due to changes in consumer preference.
2. The past six weeks have shown the importance of digital channels in ensuring supply chain continuity while helping to maintain social
distancing. In the post COVID-19 world where social distancing will be a new normal, digital platforms will gain more prominence.
7

8.
F&B INDUSTRY : RECOVERY TIMELINE (TIER 1 COMPANIES)
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Food Services &
Hospitality
Food Ingredient
Advanced Packaging &
Tracking Technologies
Convenience
Food/Frozen Food
Agriculture & Agri
Products
Beverages
Denotes the year range of recovery period of tier 1 companies in each of the vertical.
The tier 1 companies enforce additional measures, which vary based on whether employees have an office-based role, work in a
sourcing unit, or are working as field sales representative or retail staff. This change in possible will help to reduce the impact on
manufacturing and ease the disruption in supply chain. Educating employees on COVID-19 symptoms and prevention and enforcing
precautionary measures where possible supported by flexible sick leave policies are some of the additional changes.
8

9.
F&B INDUSTRY : RECOVERY TIMELINE (TIER 2 COMPANIES)
Denotes the year range of recovery period of tier 2 companies in each of the vertical.
The tier 2 companies have imposed stringent restrictions on travel and this could have implications for complying with sponsor licence
duties thus result in lack of skilled labour force. In addition, new rules and regulations for working on site have been implied.
Preparation for increased absenteeism, restriction non-essential travel, and promotion of flexible working arrangements are some of the
policy changes applied by tier 2 companies.
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Food Services &
Hospitality
Food Ingredient
Advanced Packaging &
Tracking Technologies
Convenience
Food/Frozen Food
Agriculture & Agri
Products
Beverages
9

10.
F&B INDUSTRY : RECOVERY TIMELINE (TIER 3 COMPANIES)
Denotes the year range of recovery period of tier 3 companies in each of the vertical.
In tier 3 companies, absenteeism will increase as health screening protocols are enforced, and employees showing symptoms will
be advised to stay home. Implementation of local containment policies may further contribute to absenteeism and labour shortage.
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Food Services &
Hospitality
Food Ingredient
Advanced Packaging &
Tracking Technologies
Convenience
Food/Frozen Food
Agriculture & Agri
Products
Beverages
10

11.
FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY TRENDS
• Direct-to-consumer (DTC)
businesses have evolved at a rapid
pace. A significant feature of the
DTC model is using online shopping
subscriptions to entrench brand
loyalty.
• Harness powerful technology to
enable consumers during adversity
can become integrated into all
aspects of peoples lives. For
instance, QR code to scan product
and tech health screening for food
delivery drivers are providing vital
consumer reassurances.
Regulatory Trends
• Japan Consumer Affairs Agency
stated that “Food related
business that had planned to
make changes to their raw
material supply chain may not be
able to immediately respond
(with packaging & labeling
changes) which would cause
production to be delayed and
may in turn hinder the smooth
production and distribution of
food.”
Consumer Trends
• Consumers are seeking for better
home meal packages during
quarantine period.
• Demand for visibility on product
sourcing and safety has increased.
• Elder consumers have switched to
purchase of goods via online
channels.
• Plant-based proteins serve as clean
and safe meat alternative.
Technology Trends
11

12.
AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
Global Agriculture Industry Outlook, 2015-2019
4,771
4,939
5,131
5,348
5,589
4,200
4,400
4,600
4,800
5,000
5,200
5,400
5,600
5,800
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Revenue ($ Billion)
Industry Size of $5,589 Billion in 2019
Expected Revenue Loss $922 Billion in
FY 2020
Decline in Industry Growth 12-19.5%
During 2020-2021
Expected Recovery Time 2022-2025
12

13.
PETROLEUM CHEMICAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
Industry Size of $458 Billion in 2019
Expected Revenue Loss $157 Billion in
FY 2020
Decline in Industry Growth 15-27%
During 2020-2021
Expected Recovery Time 2023-2025
419
428
441
454
458
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Revenue ($ Billion)
Global Petroleum Chemical Industry Outlook, 2015-2019
13

14.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Evolution
P
E
S
T
E
L
Political
Economic
Sociological
Technological
Legal
Environmental
The lockdown in various countries due to COVID-19 has disrupted the production in manufacturing facilities either due to shortage
of raw materials or labor forces. The political stability plays a vital role in safeguarding the supply of food and essential
commodities during the pandemic.
The global financial crisis (GFC) arose in industrial countries during COVID, yet affected developing countries through higher
interest rates; led to sharp changes in commodity prices; and resulted in reductions in investment, trade, migration, and
remittances. For most low-income countries, shocks that affect food prices or wage rates for unskilled workers have the largest
impact on poverty.
The cultural environment significantly influences consumer food tastes and preferences. Eating habits are dependent on the
beliefs, values, and norms of culture, which can impact on fundamentals such as dining times, portion sizes, and how individuals
eat meals
The key technological attributes that marketers must consider include the accelerating pace of change, unlimited opportunities for
innovation, varying research and development (R&D) budgets, and increasing regulations to update technologies in food
production. As demand for food grows, more animals/foods will be moved around the globe creating greater disease control issues
among trading partners thus development of technology to control spread of diseases will be quiet important in future.
The government institutions are responsible for efficiently drafting the policy for employee and to create healthy and safety
environment during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, laws are imposed to ensure a certain level of quality or reasonable
prices for certain products.
Different industries hold different standards of environmental protection norm depending upon the product and production
technique. The new consumers, armed with the interest and the knowledge they carry, prefer to give their business to companies
they view as more ethical, particularly about the environment in the wake of global warming.
14

15.
FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY PESTLE IMPACT BY COUNTRY
U.S.
India
China
France
UK
Spain
Italy
Germany
Russia
Brazil
P
E
S
T
E
L
Excellent Good Fair Poor
15

16.
COVID-19 GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
U.S.
The U.S. Government has taken all
necessary steps to prevent
contamination of food and ensure
smooth supply of food products in
the U.S. market. According to Tony
Corbo, the Senior Government
Affairs Representative at Food &
Water Watch said “There is no way
that food safety is not
compromised when the sole
government inspector on the
slaughter line in a chicken plant is
expected to examine three vird
every second.”
Italy
The president of Federalimentare, Ivano
Vacondio warned in an official statement
that the possible closure of Italy’s
northern regions could weigh on the food
sector and GDP as a whole. “The risk of a
production blockade after the coronavirus
alarm could impact heavily on the Italian
manufacturing sector, including the food
sector. Food excellence could be affected
as well, damaging a whole sector that has
so far proved to be resilient against the
depressed trend of the rest of the
economy.” – Vacondio said.
China
The Chinese Government is
strengthening its laws by supervising
food agencies and carrying out
random inspection. On February 25,
2020, China’s President, Xi Jinping,
and the Prime Minister, Li Keqiang
issued instructions on the need to
“stabilize” agriculture. They called for
an “all-out effort” to ensure that the
pandemic did not affect the planting
of vital crops.
16

17.
GLOBAL FOOD SERVICES & HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020
Global Food Services
and Hospitality
Industry Size and
Forecast, 2020
31.5%
24.8%
36.8%
6.8%
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
LAMEA
Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID is expected to cost $1,119 billion to the food service & hospitality industry majorly due to the lockdown imposed in various
countries across the globe.
• While few restaurants are able to maintain normal revenues by providing meals via takeout and delivery options, others are still confused on
whether to choose to functional or close temporarily. For restaurants to survive during the coronavirus crisis, they need to find creative solutions
and adapt to customers’ plight. As customers are more budget-conscious these days, one strategy for restaurant owners to consider is creating
new discounted entrees.
• The stakeholder in the food service & hospitality industry should focus on staff health and hygiene. Moreover, food service companies should
ramp up cleaning processes to ensure safety of customers as well as their employees.
• Food that has been prepared by chefs is expected to witness surge in demand, owing to health awareness and hygiene that is maintained while
preparing the food/recipe. Thus, companies in the food service industry can focus on providing customers with higher quality food cooked in
17

18.
GLOBAL FOOD INGREDIENT INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020
Global Food
Services and
Hospitality Industry
Size and Forecast,
2020
37.9%
31.7%
18.5%
12.0%
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
LAMEA
Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 is expected to cost $17 billion to the food ingredient industry majorly due to the shutdown or partial operation of food
& beverage processing companies.
• Rise in concern among consumers about the long-term health effects of artificial ingredients and additives in food products has increased the
demand for natural and healthy ingredients in food products.
• The current pandemic across the globe has further given rise to clean label products.
• The recent outbreak of the coronavirus has significantly affected consumer behaviour. For instance, on the demand side, consumers are
stockpiling shelf-stable food products, such as processed fruit and vegetables. On the supply side, companies are struggling to meet this
demand due to dearth of labours and logistics capacity issues.
18

19.
GLOBAL ADVANCED PACKAGING & TRACKING TECHNOLOGIES
INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020
Global Advanced
Packaging and
Tracking Technologies
Industry Size and
Forecast, 20200
33.1%
35.2%
23.6%
8.1%
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
LAMEA
Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 is expected to cost $21 billion in sales to the food ingredient industry majorly due to the shutdown or partial operation
of food & beverage processing companies.
• In several major food producing areas, dearth of labours has been witnessed. Limitation of movement is not only the key reason but also the
fear of infection among workers has negatively impacted the market growth. For example, in the Philippines, people are locked in their
houses. This has stopped the production and delivery of desiccated coconut and dehydrated bananas.
• On the contrary, the demand for packaged food items such as canned and frozen fruit and vegetables has considerable increased, due to
their long shelf life. However, the shortage of labour, partial operation of manufacturing facility, and logistic supply have restrained the market
growth for a short term.
19

20.
GLOBAL NUTRACEUTICAL/WELLNESS TECHNOLOGIES INDUSTRY
SIZE, 2020
Global Advanced
Packaging and Tracking
Technologies Industry Size
and Forecast, 2020
Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 on nutraceutical/wellness industry is expected to increase sales by $18 billion across the globe.
• With the outbreak of coronavirus, there has been a sharp spike in wellness-focused product purchasing. However, it may be a challenge to
meet the supply-demand gap.
• The nutraceutical/wellness product industry is majorly dependent on China for its raw materials, as 75-80% of raw materials are sourced
from China to other countries.
• The Natural Products Association (NPA) called on the federal government to allow health food stores selling nutritional supplements to
remain open during the response to COVID-19. This move is anticipated to supplement the growth of the industry even during the
pandemic.
29.0%
25.9%
32.0%
13.2%
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
LAMEA
20

21.
GLOBAL CONVENIENCE FOOD/FROZEN FOOD INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020
Global Convenience
Food/Frozen Food
Industry Size and
Forecast, 2020
Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 is expected to cost $55 billion in sales to the convenience food/frozen food industry majorly due to the shutdown or
partial operation and sourcing of raw materials.
• The food supply chain disruption is expected to continue at least until May 2020, as new cases of COVID-19 continue to rise. Movement
restrictions will continue for next two more months in various parts of world, which is why minimizing bottlenecks will remain crucial for major
manufacturers in the frozen food industry.
• Demand for frozen seafood products is anticipated to continue to decline in view of less grocery shopping and closure of restaurants. Canned
seafood and other frozen food products will on the other hand be witnessing increased demand, owing to their longer shelf life and superior
taste.
22.5%
31.5%
28.6%
17.5%
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
LAMEA
21

22.
GLOBAL AGRICULTURE & AGRI PRODUCTS INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020
Global Agriculture &
Agri Products
Industry Size and
Forecast, 2020
Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 is expected to cost $232 billion in sales to the agriculture & agri products industry majorly due to the shutdown or
partial operation and sourcing of raw materials.
• Agricultural produce, which forms the key raw material for subsequent stages in the food value chain, can become a potential source of
bottleneck for the food & beverage industry. This is true especially for countries such as Australia, which imports large-scale essential
agrochemicals and crop protection products from China.
• China is home to a significant number of large-scale manufacturers, accounting for approximately 30–35% of global agrochemical
production. Thus, current disruption in supply of agrochemical to the importing nations majorly Australia has led to exploration of alternative
sourcing partners (both in terms of geography and manufacturer).
35.5%
28.7%
29.7%
6.0%
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
LAMEA
22

23.
GLOBAL BEVERAGES INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020
Global Beverages
Industry Size and
Forecast, 2020
Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 is expected to cost $55 billion in sales to the beverages industry majorly due to the lockdown measures across
various countries.
• The Coca Cola Beverages company in its statement released in earnings announcement for its first quarter of 2020 said that “In markets
around the world, the company subsequently saw significant changes in consumer purchase patterns, notably substantial declines in away-
from-home channels.
• In at-home channels, the company witnessed early pantry loading in certain markets, followed by more normalized demand levels, along with a
sharp increase in e-commerce. Given that away-from-home channels represent approximately half of the company’s revenues, the company
expects the net effect of these consumer purchase patterns to have a significant impact on second quarter results.”
32.1%
24.2%
30.1%
13.6%
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
LAMEA
23

24.
THANK YOU!
Asia-Pacific Intelligence Centre.
Pune ( India )
Office No.102D & E,2nd Floor,
A-3 Building E space IT park ,
Pune Nagar Road,
Pune 411014.
Tel: +91 20 66346060
help@alliedmarketresearch.com
Americas
5933 NE Win Sivers Drive,
#205, Portland, OR 97220,
United States.
Int’l: +1-503-894-6022
Toll Free: +1-800-792-5285
Fax: +1-800-792-5285
help@alliedmarketresearch.com