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Way Forward for Europe
           Žiga Turk
   @Growth and Jobs Summit,
      Brussels, 12.3.2009
How about the future of
Europe: Let's ask Google




                           2
Let's reinvent the continent

§ oops, sorry, the
  wrong continent!
§ lets set up a
  committee or
  two!

§ Reflection Group
§ Future of Lisbon
  Strategy
                               3
2007 … in the good
old times …
§ EU expansion, Euro a success
§ Lisbon Treaty on track/signed,
  institutional matters settled
§ economic upswing, in part attributed to
  the Lisbon Strategy
§ soft power Europe - leading global
  climate change agenda
§ Europe to lead the globalization
                                            4
The sky was the limit
§ Mark Leonhard: quot;we will see the emergence of a New
  European Century. Not because Europe will run the world as
  an empire, but because the European way of doing things
  will have become the worldsquot;.
§ Jeremy Rifkin: quot;Much of the world is going dark, leaving
  many human beings without clear direction. The European
  Dream is a beacon of light in the troubled world.quot;

§ long term visions: a proposal for a group of wise men to
  think about the future of Europe
§ economic, social and environmental strategy: Lisbon
  strategy 3.0

                                                          5
Reflection Group
§ to identify the key issues and developments which the Union was
  likely to face and to analyze how these might be addressed.
   – strengthening and modernizing the European model of economic success
     and social responsibility,
   – enhancing the competitiveness of the EU,
   – the rule of law,
   – sustainable development as a fundamental objective of the European
     Union,
   – global stability,
   – migration,
   – energy and climate protection,
   – and the fight against global insecurity, international crime and terrorism.
§ particular attention should be given to ways of better reaching out
  to citizens and addressing their expectations and needs.
§ headed by former Spanish PM Felipe Gonzales

§ www.ReflectionGroup.eu
                                                                              6
Lisbon Strategy 2010-2020
§ The European Council (March 2008) stresses that a
  continued EU-level commitment to
   – structural reforms and
   – sustainable development and
   – social cohesion
§ will be necessary after 2010 in order to lock in the progress
  achieved by the renewed Lisbon Strategy for growth and
  jobs.
§ The European Council therefore invites
   – the Commission,
   – the Council and
   – the National Lisbon coordinators
§ to start reflecting on the future of the Lisbon strategy in the
  post-2010 period.

                                                               7
2009 Crises

§ institutional crisis
  – treaty stuck in Ireland
§ climate crisis
  – somehow forgotten, quot;temperatures flat since
    2001, but warming will returnquot;
§ financial, then economic crisis, possible
  spillover to political crisis


                                                  8
The triggers and deeper
reasons
§ triggers
  – many living over their means,
  – lack of information in the financial market,
  – regulation that did not compensate for that,
  – risk aversion and distribution,
  – market distortions,
  – poor decisions made in the financial sector
§ deeper reasons
  –…
                                                   9
21th century structural shifts
/ undercurrents
§ shifting of center of gravity of global economy
   – after 500 years re-emergence of China as #1 economy
§ conceptual economy
   – quot;almost all of the real-value-added increases in
     our output reflect the embodiment of ideasquot;
§ peak oil and possible 3rd industrial revolution
   – 100 years since the 2nd (oil)
§ other scientific progress
   – biotech, medicine, genetics, nanotechnology

                                                           10
Perfect storm

§ structural shifts + crisis =

§ instability, discontinuity, future quot;not like the past
  but betterquot; any more
§ destructive questioning the proven patterns of
  the past (capitalism, markets, democracy, greed
  …) without offering workable alternatives
§ looking for silver bullets and utopian regressions:
  government control, protectionism, redistribution
  of wealth …
                                                     11
Threats and opportunities of
the storm
threats                    opportunities
§ not good for Europe      § government
                             interventions are
  – common market is the
                             acceptable, even
    bedrock of European
    integration              desirable
§ not good for business    § weaknesses are
  at all!                    exposed
§ not good for doing       § there is motive for
  long term strategies       reform


                                                   12
Responses

§ tactical response: addressing the symptoms
  with stimuli, bailouts, confidence building,
  cheap oil … sooner or later they would get
  traction
§ strategic response: addressing the structural
  shifts, the weaknesses exposed by crisis
  – Asia, automation, abundance




                                             13
The crisis of abundance
§ economy can stand still,   § luddites: the end of
  because we can live          work
  without new stuff for a
                             § communists: Give
  year or more
                               money to the poor that
§ fewer and fewer workers
                               will spend it
  needed to make the stuff
                             § environmentalists:
  we need
                               Spend money to save
                               the planet
                             § snobs: Sell meaning,
                               brand, content, design
                               … not function
                                                        14
Crisis is deep

§ we will have to do a little bit of everything
§ conceptual economy
  – intellectual property rights or another pattern
    of innovation
     • quot;Should the law have protected Newton's and
       Leibniz's claims in the same way that we do those
       of owners of land?quot;
  – talent, human resources
  – innovation, creativity … culture, values

                                                           15
Conceptual economy, culture,
values are a legacy of Europe …




                                  16
… and Conceptual Economy is
Europe's Game
§ the future is bright




                          17
In conclusion
§ the crisis is deep and serious, but this too will pass
§ there are plenty of challenges, big picture issues, stuff that
  matters (care for the people, care for the nature)
§ short term action must not play against long term structural
  shifts

§ build on what has been good and what has worked to
  create enormous prosperity, a long period of growth and
  peace
§ an EU reform strategy is welcome - Brussels can push for
  the right thing not for the popular thing
§ create mechanisms that turn good ideas into action

                                                              18
On a rough sea you must
keep an eye on the horizon




   because the sky is the limit
                             19

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Way Forward for Europe

  • 1. Way Forward for Europe Žiga Turk @Growth and Jobs Summit, Brussels, 12.3.2009
  • 2. How about the future of Europe: Let's ask Google 2
  • 3. Let's reinvent the continent § oops, sorry, the wrong continent! § lets set up a committee or two! § Reflection Group § Future of Lisbon Strategy 3
  • 4. 2007 … in the good old times … § EU expansion, Euro a success § Lisbon Treaty on track/signed, institutional matters settled § economic upswing, in part attributed to the Lisbon Strategy § soft power Europe - leading global climate change agenda § Europe to lead the globalization 4
  • 5. The sky was the limit § Mark Leonhard: quot;we will see the emergence of a New European Century. Not because Europe will run the world as an empire, but because the European way of doing things will have become the worldsquot;. § Jeremy Rifkin: quot;Much of the world is going dark, leaving many human beings without clear direction. The European Dream is a beacon of light in the troubled world.quot; § long term visions: a proposal for a group of wise men to think about the future of Europe § economic, social and environmental strategy: Lisbon strategy 3.0 5
  • 6. Reflection Group § to identify the key issues and developments which the Union was likely to face and to analyze how these might be addressed. – strengthening and modernizing the European model of economic success and social responsibility, – enhancing the competitiveness of the EU, – the rule of law, – sustainable development as a fundamental objective of the European Union, – global stability, – migration, – energy and climate protection, – and the fight against global insecurity, international crime and terrorism. § particular attention should be given to ways of better reaching out to citizens and addressing their expectations and needs. § headed by former Spanish PM Felipe Gonzales § www.ReflectionGroup.eu 6
  • 7. Lisbon Strategy 2010-2020 § The European Council (March 2008) stresses that a continued EU-level commitment to – structural reforms and – sustainable development and – social cohesion § will be necessary after 2010 in order to lock in the progress achieved by the renewed Lisbon Strategy for growth and jobs. § The European Council therefore invites – the Commission, – the Council and – the National Lisbon coordinators § to start reflecting on the future of the Lisbon strategy in the post-2010 period. 7
  • 8. 2009 Crises § institutional crisis – treaty stuck in Ireland § climate crisis – somehow forgotten, quot;temperatures flat since 2001, but warming will returnquot; § financial, then economic crisis, possible spillover to political crisis 8
  • 9. The triggers and deeper reasons § triggers – many living over their means, – lack of information in the financial market, – regulation that did not compensate for that, – risk aversion and distribution, – market distortions, – poor decisions made in the financial sector § deeper reasons –… 9
  • 10. 21th century structural shifts / undercurrents § shifting of center of gravity of global economy – after 500 years re-emergence of China as #1 economy § conceptual economy – quot;almost all of the real-value-added increases in our output reflect the embodiment of ideasquot; § peak oil and possible 3rd industrial revolution – 100 years since the 2nd (oil) § other scientific progress – biotech, medicine, genetics, nanotechnology 10
  • 11. Perfect storm § structural shifts + crisis = § instability, discontinuity, future quot;not like the past but betterquot; any more § destructive questioning the proven patterns of the past (capitalism, markets, democracy, greed …) without offering workable alternatives § looking for silver bullets and utopian regressions: government control, protectionism, redistribution of wealth … 11
  • 12. Threats and opportunities of the storm threats opportunities § not good for Europe § government interventions are – common market is the acceptable, even bedrock of European integration desirable § not good for business § weaknesses are at all! exposed § not good for doing § there is motive for long term strategies reform 12
  • 13. Responses § tactical response: addressing the symptoms with stimuli, bailouts, confidence building, cheap oil … sooner or later they would get traction § strategic response: addressing the structural shifts, the weaknesses exposed by crisis – Asia, automation, abundance 13
  • 14. The crisis of abundance § economy can stand still, § luddites: the end of because we can live work without new stuff for a § communists: Give year or more money to the poor that § fewer and fewer workers will spend it needed to make the stuff § environmentalists: we need Spend money to save the planet § snobs: Sell meaning, brand, content, design … not function 14
  • 15. Crisis is deep § we will have to do a little bit of everything § conceptual economy – intellectual property rights or another pattern of innovation • quot;Should the law have protected Newton's and Leibniz's claims in the same way that we do those of owners of land?quot; – talent, human resources – innovation, creativity … culture, values 15
  • 16. Conceptual economy, culture, values are a legacy of Europe … 16
  • 17. … and Conceptual Economy is Europe's Game § the future is bright 17
  • 18. In conclusion § the crisis is deep and serious, but this too will pass § there are plenty of challenges, big picture issues, stuff that matters (care for the people, care for the nature) § short term action must not play against long term structural shifts § build on what has been good and what has worked to create enormous prosperity, a long period of growth and peace § an EU reform strategy is welcome - Brussels can push for the right thing not for the popular thing § create mechanisms that turn good ideas into action 18
  • 19. On a rough sea you must keep an eye on the horizon because the sky is the limit 19

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. teko]I trak na eni strani, umetniki na drugi