1. Sreeja Nair
The Energy and Resources Institute
Evolution of approaches towards
evaluation of adaptive responses
The Evaluation Conclave, 25 October 2010.
Evaluating Adaptive Responses to Climate Change workshop
2. Complex Adaptive Systems
Evolution of evaluation of adaptive responses in Social-
Ecological Systems.
Adaptive policymaking under uncertainty
Summary
2
Overview
3. Social-Ecological Systems (SES), are complex adaptive systems experiencing
multiple cross-scale interactions ( Cash et al. 1996) (‘complex’) and with
time, adjusting to conditions of stress such as climate change (‘adaptive’)
(Hughes et al 1997)
SES do not rapidly change their form owing to several self-
reinforcing mechanisms that try to maintain the original structure
and function (Walker et al 2002).
Under stress, SES assimilate the new conditions while trying to
maintain their earlier critical processes, attempt to self-organize
while learning and adjusting to the new conditions (Carpenter and
Brock 2008).
3
Being ‘complex’ and ‘adaptive’
4. 4
Responding to Structured and unstructured
problems
Hisschemoller and Hoppe,1989
Unstructured problems
are characterized by
uncertainty and
difference in
perception about the
problem, its cause and
solution; boundaries of
the problem are
nebulous.
YesNo
Yes
No
Certainty
about
knowledge
Agreement on perception
about the problem
Unstructured
problem
Moderately
structured problem
Moderately
structured problem
Structured problem
5. Understanding Uncertainty
• Adaptive responses may be elicited across a continuum of
uncertainty: moving from
Determinism, TO Complete ignorance
Walker et al 2010
6. 6
Evolution of empirical and theoretical
approaches
Single stress e.g.
climate change
Climate variability
and change
Multiple stresses
Scenario-
based
modelling
Indicator-
based
approaches
Community
interaction
Source: TERI
7. 7
Adaptive capacity
Biophysical vulnerability
• Soil degradation and cover
• Groundwater availability
Social vulnerability
• Agricultural workers and
labourers
• Literacy
• Gender discrimination
• Child mortality and fertility
Technological
vulnerability
• Irrigation
• Infrastructure
Globalization
vulnerability
Climate
change
vulnerability
Climate sensitivity
(monsoon dependence and
dryness)
Trade sensitivity (port
distance and import-
sensitive crops)
Example: Macro and micro
assessments
Impacts of climate change and globalization on Indian
agriculture
Source: TERI,
2003
8. 8
Regions with highest
climate sensitivity
and exposure are not
necessarily the most
vulnerable
Assessment of vulnerability of Indian
agriculture to ‘double exposure’ (climate
change and globalization)- a case study
(Source: TERI, 2003)
Vulnerability
profiles
9. Drought prone and flood prone basins selected to understand
differential vulnerability and adaptation options
Village selection: Irrigation & Infrastructure index
Household-level surveys; Unit of analyses- land holding
size
Income Impact Index: Identification of significant
variables that enable households to ‘maintain’ income levels
between a normal and stress year
9
Example : Basin-level assessment
Source: TERI – World Bank study, 2008
10. Weights and scores for
biophysical, social and
technological
vulnerability
10
A State Vulnerability
Index
Bid
Pune
Nashik
Dhule
Solapur
Akola
Satara
Gadchirol
Yavatmal
Jalgaon
Ahmadnagar
Thane
Amravati
Jalna
Latur
Sangli
Nagpur
Nanded
Parbhani
Buldana
Chandrapu
Bhandara
Aurangabad
Ratnagiri
Kolhapur
Raigarh
Wardha
Osmanabad
Sindhudur
Vulnerable Zones 2001
Maharastra
Gross cropped area in Ha. (1991)
137400 - 271327
271328 - 578000
578001 - 856200
856201 - 1068700
1068701 - 1398300
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
Godavari river basin
Extremely High
No data
BID
PUNE
NASHIK
SOLAPUR
THANE
SATARA
YAVATMAL
JALGAON
NANDED
JALNA
AHMADNAGAR
AMRAVATI
NAGPUR
GADCHIROLI
SANGLI
DHULE
BULDANA
LATUR
CHANDRAPUR
AKOLA
RATNAGIRI
AURANGABAD
RAIGARH
KOLHAPUR
WARDHA
PARBHANI
WASHIM
OSMANABAD
HINGOLI
GONDIYA
NANDURBAR
BHANDARA
SINDHUDURG
MUMBAI (SUBURB)
MUMBAI
Vulnerable Zones 2001
Maharastra
Gross cropped area in Ha. (2001)
181500 - 328200
328201 - 486100
486101 - 591900
591901 - 837400
837401 - 1327500
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
Godavari river basin
Extremely High
No data
Source: TERI – World Bank study, 2008
11. Evaluating responses within the Development:
Adaptation Continuum
Adaptation needs often appear to being largely defined
from a developmental perspective and mostly with
reference to baseline vulnerabilities
11
12. 12
Example: Climate risk screening
Climate risk assessment as a tool/approach for reducing climatic
risks to developmental objectives and integrating adaptation
options within developmental programmes at the national and
sub-national levels
13. 13
The ORCHID processSensitisation and
awareness-raising
Initial Portfolio
Screening
Strategic
Overview
Climate change
and disasters
profile
Adaptation options integrated
Risk screening of future programming
Multi criteria
analysis of
options
Cost benefit
analysis
Climate change
and disasters
assessment
Adaptation /
Risk reduction
options
1. Climate science
2. Vulnerability
3. Economic
impacts
Selects high
risk projects
Risk assessment
and adaptation
options
Cost benefit
analysis
14. 14
Criteria for climate risk screening: comparison of scenarios
No programme scenario: without interventions
Programme scenario: partial risk reduction due to programme
implementation
Programme plus scenario: risk reduction with additional
components added within the present programme portfolio
Climate-risk screening of projects
Source: Tanner et al, 2007
15. 15
State level programme: Urban Services for the Poor
Identified climate
risks
Climate Risk management and adaptation
Current practices Additional opportunities
KUSP MPUSP
Urban flooding In- situ slum upgradation Strengthening O and M
Comprehensive urban planning
considering climatic risks
Health risks due to
contamination of water
supplies
O and M of
existing water
supplies and
drainage
systems
Enabling ULBs to
develop and
follow
environmental
standards for
sanitation and
drinking water
Development of a spatial and
temporal database for water
quality surveillance
Raising plinth level of toilets
Better insulation of toilet pits to
reduce seepage into the soil and
groundwater
Source: Tanner et al, 2007
18. Policies can promote continuous learning and adapt in response to
experience over time (Dewey 1927)
Holling 1978: Adaptive policies and responses in SES
Adaptive policies are ‘designed to test clearly formulated hypotheses
about the behaviour of an ecosystem being changed by human use’ (Lee
1993)
Most policies involve Complex Adaptive Systems hence
conventional approaches based on single-model projections and
optimization will produce static policies catered towards only the
best estimate (Bankes 2002).
Adaptive policies -‘not only optimal for a best estimate future but robust
across a range of plausible futures’ (Walker and Marchau 2003).
18
Evolution of adaptive policy concepts
Swanson and Bhadwal, Creating Adaptive Policies: IISD-IDRC-TERI 2009
20. Adaptive Policy
Ability of policy to
adapt to anticipated
conditions
(based on a good understanding
of cause and effect)
(based on a good understanding of
system dynamics and complexity)
Ability of policy to
adapt to unanticipated
conditions
Adaptive policies are ‘designed to function more effectively under complex,
dynamic and uncertain conditions’.
Swanson and Bhadwal, Creating Adaptive Policies: IISD-IDRC-TERI 2009
20
21. Integrated and Forward-
looking Analysis
By identifying key factors that affect policy
performance and identifying scenarios for how
these factors might evolve in the future,
policies can be made robust to a range of
anticipated conditions, and indicators
developed to help trigger important policy
adjustments when needed.
23. Ranking Importance and Uncertainty
Importance
Uncertaintylow
high
high
Critical
Uncertainties
‘inevitables’
Keyfactors
24. Multi-stakeholder Deliberation
Expands ability of policy to incorporate a range of
anticipated conditions.
By providing access to different perspectives, different sources of knowledge,
and different ways of knowing in order to consider new information and new
views of the problem.
Rapid adjustment and response to unanticipated
conditions.
By building the social cohesion, shared vision and capacity for collective action
25. Decentralization of
Decision-making
Decentralizing the authority and responsibility
for decision-making to the lowest effective and
accountable unit of governance, whether
existing or newly created, can increase the
capacity of a policy to perform successfully
when confronted with unforeseen events.
26. Built-in Policy Adjustment
Some of the inherent variability in socio-
economic and ecological conditions can be
anticipated, and monitoring of key indicators
can help trigger important policy adjustments
to keep the policy functioning well.
27. Formal Review and
Continuous Learning
Regular review, even when the policy is
performing well, and the use of well-designed
pilots throughout the life of the policy to test
assumptions related to performance, can help
address emerging issues and trigger important
policy adjustments.
28. 1. Pre-defined time interval, e.g., once in a year
2. Monitoring of system performance indicators relating to
intended (and unintended) policy outcomes
3. Stakeholder feedback
4. Availability of critical new information
28
Triggers for a Review
29. Promoting Variation
Given the complexity of most policy settings,
implementing a variety of policies to address the
same issue increases the likelihood of achieving
desired outcomes. Diversity of responses also forms a
common risk-management approach, facilitating the
ability to perform efficiently in the face of
unanticipated conditions.
30. • As an architect: designing and implementing a
variety of policy options
• As a facilitator: creating an enabling
environment for variation
• As a learner: studying from the past and
current and adapting in the process
Promoting variation: Multiple roles of a
policymaker
30
31. Enabling Self-organization and
Social Networking
The capacity of individuals and groups to self-organize around
problems and stresses affects the ability of communities to
adapt to changing conditions. Ensuring that policies do not
undermine existing social capital; creating forums that enable
social networking; facilitating the sharing of good practices;
and removing barriers to self-organization, strengthen the
ability of stakeholders to respond to unanticipated events in a
variety of innovative ways.
31
32. Assessments have evolved from considering single stresses to
existence of multiple stresses in the real world
Need to bring in adaptive thinking into empirical and
theoretical approaches for evaluation in an increasingly
complex, uncertain and dynamic world.
Need to capture heterogeneity of responding systems,
innovation and feedback into assessment approaches.
Need to evaluate adaptive responses with respect to the
‘changing baseline’
Adaptive decision-making approaches can enable evaluation
of adaptive responses under uncertainty.
Summary
32
Notes de l'éditeur
given inter-connectedness of financial markets, international trade, ecosystems, etc….
Recap of the Aims and Objectives of the Process
A rapid assessment to identify potential risks to programme goals and activities from climate-related impacts.
To identify opportunities and options for integrating climate risk reduction and adaptation measures into DFID interventions.
TO raise awareness among DFID staff and programme partners of climate risks and future climate change
To identify strategic implications of climate change for DFID-India portfolio.
To inform an ongoing risk screening process in DFID.
A water and agriculture focus, using the issues of coping with weather shocks and stresses as the policy context
There is a tendency to strive for an ‘optimal’ policy. But the future for which the optimal design is relevant is only one plausible future.
Pioneered by Royal/Dutch Shell in the 1970s in response to anticipated future fluctuations in oil prices
“… using stories of the future to surface assumptions about business and political forces of the present”
Shell learned that
“by helping managers:
clarify their assumptions,
discover internal contradictions in those assumptions, and
think through new strategies based on new assumptions,
they gained a unique source of competitive advantage (Senge 1990)”
