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# Betfair triple system

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# Betfair triple system

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### Betfair triple system

1. 1. No part of this guide may be reproduced or resold without express permission of the author. Copyright © K J Platt 2005 1
3. 3. Getting to Know Betfair If you are a new Betfair user, the interface can look quite daunting at first glance. However it really is quite simple to use. An excellent tutorial is provided on the Betfair website and shows you exactly how to place ‘back’ and ‘lay’ bets. I strongly suggest that as a new user you become familiar with the basic functions before attempting to place any ‘real money’ bets. Within the betfair.com site, click on ‘Help’ and then ‘View Our Demo’. Odds Format All prices on the Betfair website are shown in European decimal format. Decimal odds express your total return for the stake you place. Therefore even money is expressed as 2.0 - you get back your initial stake plus the same again as winnings - twice your initial stake. To help you get used to the decimal odds format, a handy guide is printed on the following page. The decimal system is very simple once you get used to it. 3
4. 4. Odds Conversion Table Fractional Decimal American 10/1 11.00 \$1,000.00 9/1 10.00 \$900.00 17/2 9.50 \$850.00 8/1 9.00 \$800.00 15/2 8.50 \$750.00 7/1 8.00 \$700.00 13/2 7.50 \$650.00 6/1 7.00 \$600.00 11/2 6.50 \$550.00 5/1 6.00 \$500.00 9/2 5.50 \$450.00 4/1 5.00 \$400.00 18/5 4.60 \$360.00 7/2 4.50 \$350.00 100/30 4.333 \$333.33 16/5 4.20 \$320.00 3/1 4.00 \$300.00 14/5 3.80 \$280.00 11/4 3.75 \$275.00 13/5 3.60 \$260.00 5/2 3.50 \$250.00 12/5 3.40 \$240.00 95/40 3.375 \$237.50 23/10 3.30 \$230.00 9/4 3.25 \$225.00 11/5 3.20 \$220.00 85/40 3.125 \$212.50 21/10 3.10 \$210.00 2/1 3.00 \$200.00 19/10 2.90 \$190.00 15/8 2.875 \$187.50 9/5 2.80 \$180.00 7/4 2.75 \$175.00 17/10 2.70 \$170.00 13/8 2.625 \$162.50 8/5 2.60 \$160.00 4
5. 5. 6/4 2.50 \$150.00 7/5 2.40 \$140.00 11/8 2.375 \$137.50 13/10 2.30 \$130.00 5/4 2.25 \$125.00 6/5 2.20 \$120.00 11/10 2.10 \$110.00 21/20 2.05 \$105.00 1/1 2.00 -\$100.00 20/21 1.952 -\$105.00 10/11 1.909 -\$110.00 9/10 1.90 -\$111.10 5/6 1.833 -\$120.00 4/5 1.80 -\$125.00 8/11 1.727 -\$137.50 7/10 1.70 -\$142.90 4/6 1.667 -\$150.00 5/8 1.625 -\$160.00 8/13 1.615 -\$162.50 3/5 1.60 -\$166.70 4/7 1.571 -\$175.00 8/15 1.533 -\$187.50 1/2 1.50 -\$200.00 40/85 1.471 -\$212.50 9/20 1.45 -\$222.20 4/9 1.444 -\$22500 2/5 1.40 -\$250.00 4/11 1.364 -\$275.00 7/20 1.35 -\$285.70 1/3 1.333 -\$300.00 30/100 1.30 -\$333.30 2/7 1.286 -\$350.00 1/4 1.25 -\$400.00 2/9 1.222 -\$450.00 1/5 1.20 -\$500.00 5
6. 6. Safety First! Before implementing any of the techniques in this guide I would urge you to adhere the following guidance. 1. Only gamble with money you can afford to lose. 2. Never be greedy. Be happy to take small gains – it all adds up. 3. Bet very small stakes to start with until you are comfortable with each technique. It is better to learn a lot from a cheap mistake than learn little from a huge mistake. It is not necessary to use all the three methods described in this guide as each system works independently. I do suggest, however, that you keep track of your money, either by maintaining a record of your profits from each method or by opening separate Betfair accounts. The three methods in this guide are: Identifying races where the ‘favourite’ is extremely Lay the Losers likely to lose and then ‘laying’ these horses before the race starts. Backing and laying a horse in the minutes before a Trading race starts to lock in a profit regardless of the race outcome. Backing a horse to win for a small profit just before it In-Play Betting crosses the winning line or ‘laying’ a horse during a race when is has no chance of winning. 6
7. 7. Lay the Losers The key to this system is to identify races where the ‘favourite’ is extremely likely to lose and then ‘lay’ these horses before the race starts. We are looking for losers! When you ‘lay’ a horse, you are effectively acting as a bookmaker and taking a bet from a punter. Say the price of the horse is 3.1 and you lay the horse for £5, you are taking a bet of £5 from a ‘backer’. When you lay a horse then effectively all the other horses in the race are running for you. If the horse loses you keep the £5. Should the horse win your liability would be £5 x 3.1 = £15.50 less the stake money of £5 = £10.50. You stood to win £5 if the horse lost or lose £10.50 if the horse won. A long-term study reveals that only around 20% of ‘favourites’ win races on average. Very rarely will more than 40% of favourites win on any given day. This is a good basis to start from because we will naturally get more ‘losers’ than ‘winners’, although it depends on the prices of the winners whether we make a profit or not. To make a reliable profit we must identify which ‘favourites’ have a much higher probability of losing. Note that we are only interested in ‘favourites’ (the shortest priced horse on the race card). It would be easy to pick horses priced at 50 or above because they do have a high probability of losing – the trouble is that they are also very expensive to pay out on when they do win! Step 1: Examine the Race Cards This can be done online via the Racing Post well in advance of a days racing. Their website is: www.racingpost.co.uk If you have not used the site before you will need to ‘register’, which is free, to obtain a user name and password. This will allow you to gain access to the data you need. On the Racing Menu down the left side of the screen click on ‘Cards’ and then click on the day in question. You will be presented with a list of races for the main race meeting for the day selected. You can also access the lists for the other race meetings by clicking on a different venue. These are listed down the right hand side of the screen – you will need to scroll down to see them – and are listed under the heading ‘Other Meetings’. To view a race card simply click on the name of the race adjacent to the race time: 7
8. 8. Above is the race card for the 1:30 at Huntingdon. Use the race card to check the number of horses running. If there are 10 or more runners then look for the name of the ‘favourite’. The favourite is the horse that has the lowest price and is mentioned first in the betting forecast. In the above example you can see that the favourite is ‘Irish Wolf’. If the race qualifies then proceed to step 2, otherwise look at another race. A race will only qualify for this system if there are 10 or more runners. Step 2: Check the Racing Post Ratings The right-hand column on the Race Card is headed ‘RPR’ which is short for Racing Post Rating. This is an indication of a horses ability. We are only interested in the race if at least 3 other horses are no lower than 10 points below the favourite. In addition we can remain interested in the favourite if it is unrated. You can see in the above example that the favourite, Irish Wolf, has a rating of 130, and 9 other runners have ratings no lower than 10 points below Irish Wolf. If the race qualifies then proceed to step 3, otherwise look at another race. 8
9. 9. Step 3: Check the Tipsters By clicking on the ‘Selections’ graphic underneath the Race Card you can bring up a list of tipsters and their selections for the race as shown below… We are looking for a clear sign that the favourite is unfancied by the majority of tipsters. Check how many tipsters have selected the favourite. Also check how many tipsters have NOT selected the favourite and instead have chosen a different runner. If the number of selections NOT involving the favourite outnumbers the selections for the favourite then make a note of the race time, location, the name of the horse and forecast price for use in the minutes before the race. You can see above that 6 tipsters have selected Irish Wolf whereas 9 tipsters have selected other runners. Step 4: Check the Price Movements This step can only be carried out five minutes before the race starts. Log into your Betfair account and navigate to the race in question. You will be presented with the standard screen showing the current prices for each horse. We are essentially looking to ‘follow the money’ at this point. Huge sums are bet in the few minutes before a race and this is often a good indicator of how a horse is likely to perform for a variety of reasons. By clicking on the favourites name in Betfair you can view a graph representing the price history of the horse for that particular race. We are not really concerned with the left hand half of the graph, as volatile trading takes place on Betfair when a race 9
10. 10. is first listed until the market finds a level. The right half of the graph will show us what has happened in the minutes leading up to the race. If a horse has been heavily backed the price on the horse will have reduced and the graph will be trending downwards. If this has happened then obviously the horse must be looking good to win and we should therefore leave it alone. If the right half of the graph is trending upwards then obviously the horse is now even more un-fancied and you should proceed to step 5. You can see in the example below that the price has Irish Wolf has risen in the minutes before the race, from around 4.3 to 5.5. The right hand side of the graph is trending upwards and we can definitely proceed. The final scenario is if the graph is ‘trading sideways’ and is neither trending up or down. The price will be remaining fairly constant. This means the jury is out on this horse and we should proceed with caution. If the ‘back price’ is higher than the price on the Racing Post Race Card then proceed to step 5 and halve your stake, otherwise leave the horse alone. Step 5: Laying the Horse 10
12. 12. Summary of the Lay the Losers System Check the race has at least 10 runners and identify the favourite on the race card. Check the Racing Post Ratings (RPR) to ensure at least 3 other horses are no lower than 10 points below the favourite. Check the ‘Selections’ to ensure the total number of tips for other runners is greater than the number of tips for the favourite. Finally, check the graph on Betfair 5 minutes before the race starts. If the price is drifting lay the horse for 1% of your bank. If the horse is ‘trading sideways’ then lay the horse for 0.5% of your bank if the price is greater than forecast on the Race Card. The maximum price to lay at is 6. 12
15. 15. Price Increments 1.01 – 2.00 0.01 2.00 – 3.00 0.02 3.00 – 4.00 0.05 4.00 – 6.00 0.10 6.00 – 10.00 0.20 The Graph A good starting point for trading on a race is to see how the price has been changing in the last few minutes. If you click on the favourites name you can view the graph that shows the recent price changes. This may give clues as to whether a horse’s price is trending in any direction. If the right hand half of the graph has been trending and is still moving upwards, this is a good indicator that you may be wanting to lay the horse first, then back shortly after at a higher price. If the right hand half of the graph has been trending and is still moving downwards, this is a good indicator that you may be wanting to back the horse first, then lay shortly after at a lower price. Regardless of the trends shown, we are not going to use the graph as the only indicator of the likely next price movement. The graph only represents a historical price record. Although trends may continue this is not guaranteed. You can now close the graph and start concentrating on the main trading window. At this point you will need to keep refreshing the Betfair window so you can keep up to date with the changing data. The final section of the trading part of this guide provides you with the ‘tools of the trade’ that can perform this function automatically for you. Weight of Money The other major indicator of the next movement in price is referred to as ‘weight of money’. If you look at the row of data containing the name of the favourite horse, you will see 3 back prices and 3 lay prices together with the amounts available. At this point in reading this guide you should stop and think about these numbers and what they mean. The ‘back’ prices represent people who want to ‘lay’ the horse at that price. The ‘lay’ prices represent people who want to ‘back’ the horse at that price. The ‘weight of money’, more often than not, pushes the price in one direction or another. 15
16. 16. If there is more money on the ‘back’ side, then more people wish to ‘lay’ the horse than back it – this usually leads to the horse drifting (the price increases). If there is more money on the ‘lay’ side, then more people wish to ‘back’ the horse than lay it – this usually leads to the horse shortening (the price reduces). The ‘weight of money’ takes into account the total of all 3 amounts of money available on the ‘back’ side compared to the total of all 3 amounts of money available on the ‘lay’ side. If the ‘back’ side and ‘lay’ side are fairly equal then obviously the price is not likely to be moving. Making a decision to trade Trading is all about discipline. Being disciplined means identifying the correct time to trade AND also being able to resist trading when conditions are not right. What we are ideally looking for is: 1) The graph showing a trend, up or down. Here we see Consonant on the drift: 16
18. 18. I continued to watch the screen and managed to lay at 4.7 and back at 4.8, then lay at 5.6/5.7 and back at 5.7 for a little extra profit. Shortly before the advertised race time I decided to take the profit accrued. To do this you divide the profit on the horse by the available ‘lay’ price and then ‘lay’ for this amount. In this case the profit was £15.01. The available lay price was 5.5. I therefore layed the horse for £2.73. This created a situation where I would gain £3.01 if Consonant won, or £2.73 if any other horse won. Remember when trading, the actual back/lay or lay/back process only takes a few seconds. When you first start trading with small premiums you will not be able to ‘green up’ due to the minimum stake being £2 on Betfair. The example below shows how one trade on ‘Oh Danny Boy’ has created a £5 profit situation IF the horse wins. It is impossible to spread the profit and ‘green up’ because the required stake would be £5/5.4 = £0.92, well below the minimum. 18
19. 19. This is therefore a ‘free bet’ situation, where you will win £5 if the horse wins but lose nothing if the horse does not win. Riding the Wave In the above examples the ‘weight of money’ factor was fairly small and therefore I was concentrating on making small gains from relatively minor price changes. Sometimes sentiment amongst punters moves firmly for or against a horse shortly before a race and this leads fairly large price movements in a short space of time. These situations are opportunities for smart traders to make a lot of money. You will recognise when this happens because the ‘weight of money’ will be overwhelming in one direction or another perhaps with a factor of 10 or more. When such an opportunity presents itself get on board as soon as possible by placing your opening back or lay (depending on the direction of movement). Instead of immediately requesting the opposing bet simply wait and see what happens. You can then ‘ride the wave’ until you see the weight of money coming back into balance. The price may change considerably before balance is restored and you then place your opposing back or lay bet, locking in a large profit. Unfortunately I have no screenshots for you of such a situation (because I make the most of these occasions and don’t waste time taking screenshots). An example of a horse where the price will drift considerably would look something like: Back Lay 2.62 2.64 2.66 2.68 2.70 2.72 £2354 £1875 £2005 £240 £48 £54 In this situation you would quickly lay the horse and then wait for as long as possible before eventually backing at a much higher price when the weight of money comes back into balance. Software to Make Trading Easier To trade successfully you will need to be able to see the prices and volumes available changing every second. You should also be able to place back and lay bets quickly. There are two solutions for this: 1) Trading using the Betfair website. You can use the ‘Betfair Refresh’ script described on page 32 of this guide. This will refresh the screen at the interval you set making trading a lot easier. You will still be stuck with a multi-click bet process 19
20. 20. however and this will mean you are sometimes too slow and miss a price change you anticipated. Although you can trade successfully using the Betfair website interface you can trade quicker and more successfully using my preferred solution: 2) Single click betting software. Please visit the website: http://www.gruss.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/ There you can download a free single click ‘Betting Assistant’ program written by a Betfair user. The website also contains a support forum. The advantages of using this software are: a) Single click betting on all 3 back and lay prices. b) Continually updated display of prices and volumes. c) Continually updated display of potential profit. d) Option to take profit (‘green up’) with one click. e) Instant colour coded snapshot of the overall weight of money. If you take the time to learn how to use the above software you will be rewarded with a much easier way of trading. I won’t describe how to use the software within this guide because the forum and help screens available do this job anyway. I will simply say that once you get used to the software I guarantee you will never trade via the Betfair interface again. 20
21. 21. In-Play Betting Many events taking place are turned ‘In-play’ by Betfair, allowing you place ‘back’ or ‘lay’ orders while the event in actually taking place. Naturally the prices can change significantly during an event according to what is happening on the field of play. The techniques described in this guide can be used for many differing sporting events e.g. football, rugby, snooker, tennis etc. I am going to use horse racing in all my examples, simply because a great deal of money changes hands ‘in-play’ on Betfair on UK horse races. Regularly over £100000 worth of bets are ‘matched’ on a single race and this figure can easily be over £1 million. Please steer of non-UK horse racing, as often the liquidity during a race is very low leading to pricing that does not reflect a horses’ true chance of winning. You can easily check whether an event will be turned in play by navigating to the event within the Betfair website and then clicking on ‘Rules’. The paragraph displayed will indicate if the event will be turned ‘IN PLAY’. When an event starts all unmatched bets are cancelled and betting is briefly suspended. Then the event turns ‘In-play’ and betting can commence again. An ‘In- play’ event is indicated by a white tick on a green square with the Betfair interface. I advise watching what happens during a horse race to get familiar with the prices changing and what is displayed. You will need to keep clicking ‘Refresh’ with the Betfair page to update the prices as the action unfolds. You can click ‘Refresh’ every second or so. Betting can take place right up to the finishing post when Betfair suspend trading on the race. On next page I will describe what you should notice during a horse race… What Happens on the Betfair Screen During the Race 1. The race starts – betting is Suspended with all unmatched bets cancelled. 2. Betting resumes with new ‘back’ and ‘lay’ orders filling the screen. 3. Orders are matched or cancelled as the race unfolds. 4. Prices change rapidly – prices shorten (smaller odds) on race leaders and prices increase (greater odds) on slower runners. 21
22. 22. 5. As horses drift out of the action, or a pulled up or fall, ‘back’ orders are cancelled and it is no longer possible to ‘lay’ the horse. Some ‘layers’ still offer odds of 1000 (999/1) in the hope of attracting a ‘mug punter’. 6. Odds on the leaders shorten considerably until the final furlongs. 7. If a race has a clear winner approaching the winning post, then the odds on all ‘losers’ drift towards 1000. Odds on the ‘winner’ reduce. 8. As the winner crosses the line the odds will be 1.01 i.e. a £1 profit to £100 stake. 9. Betting is again Suspended. By clicking on each horses name after the race you can view details of the last price ‘matched’ and a graph of how the price altered on that horse. The prices tell you which horse won the race (last price matched usually 1.01 or close to 1.01) and also show the prices rising on the losers to as high as 1000. Making Your Profit The system is simple. As the race unfolds you can make money in 2 ways: LAY horses that are definitely NOT GOING TO WIN. The horse may have fallen, been pulled up, unseated its rider or is too far back down the field. BACK the horse that is GOING TO WIN. The horse cannot be caught, has no more fences to jump, and is running into the last furlong. Now we will look in detail at the processes you need to follow and the factors you need to be aware of... Using ‘Live’ Broadcasts It is possible to follow the progress of a race simply by referring to the changing prices within the Betfair site, and I describe later how to bet using only the information available on Betfair. However you will make much higher profits if you are able to gain an extra ‘edge’ over other punters. For most people, this will mean viewing the event on television or listening to a radio or internet broadcast. Being able to see, or hear, the action will give you confidence to bet earlier in a race 22