ZyFin Research, a leading financial research and analytics company, today announced its Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) for the month of May 2014. The index, which is a lead indicator to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) trend, has registered a score of 5.0% in May, the same as in the previous month. A stable BCI in April and May corresponds to a stable IIP in May and June, official estimates for which would be released by the Central Statistical Organization in July and August respectively. With early signs of BCI bottoming out, this can correspond to a recovery in real economy from this point onwards. Incidentally, consumer and market sentiment has been on an upswing since last one month now.

1. June IIP to signal early revival in industrial activity: ZyFin Research
BCI, a lead indicator to IIP, records flat growth after slipping for two consecutive months
Mumbai, 13th
June 2014: ZyFin Research, a leading financial research and analytics company, today
announced its Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) for the month of May 2014. The index, which is a lead
indicator to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) trend, has registered a score of 5.0% in May, the
same as in the previous month. A stable BCI in April and May corresponds to a stable IIP in May and
June, official estimates for which would be released by the Central Statistical Organization in July
and August respectively. With early signs of BCI bottoming out, this can correspond to a recovery in
real economy from this point onwards. Incidentally, consumer and market sentiment has been on an
upswing since last one month now.
The new government has a steeply uphill task to revive industrial production, which shrunk by 0.1%
in FY 2013-14. Bold reforms have been proposed, including the implementation of the Direct Tax
Code, easing of gold import restrictions, carrying forward excise duty cuts for all automobiles, and
easing infrastructure bottlenecks to revive investment spending in the economy. With fears of a
weak monsoon close to being confirmed, positive steps towards these reforms will be of vital
importance to maintaining the current heady market and consumer sentiments and, consequently,
putting an end to the weak growth spell.
ZyFin Research’s BCI (INBFBCI) is an independent leading indicator of the business cycle in India.
Since it indicates the state of the Indian business cycle more than two months prior to the release of
IIP data, it allows reliable and advanced detection of turns in the business cycle. A three-month
uptrend in the BCI signifies an improving business cycle and vice versa.
The key highlights of the ZyFin Research Business Cycle Indicator for May 2014 are:
 ZyFin’s Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) was at 5.0% in May 2014, showing no change from the
previous month. As the BCI leads the IIP by one month, this suggests flat growth in IIP over the
month of May 2014.
 Factors contributing to the growth in the business cycle are improving air freight and air
passenger traffic as well as a soaring Sensex. Sensex returns rose to 8.0% in May 2014, the
highest since November 2013, driven by high foreign fund inflows as animal spirits revive.
 Apart from this, the excise duty cut has provided relief to the struggling auto industry. Passenger
vehicle sales rose for the first time in 15 months and the industry is witnessing early signs of
revival in heavy commercial vehicles as well.
 The Consumer Outlook Index has also recorded improvement in May 2014, with the Spending
Sentiment Index improving for the first time since December 2013.
Giving his views on the May numbers, Debopam Chaudhuri, Chief Economist, ZyFin Research, said,
“We expect a slow but consistent pick-up in the Indian business cycle starting July 2014. This would
be led by strengthening sentiment of investors and end consumers, coupled with a steadily healing
external sector and gradual improvement in real economic conditions. ZyFin’s Spending Sentiment

2. Index witnessed an improvement in May, reflecting rising willingness to spend among Indian
consumers, which is a prerequisite for any demand-driven economy.”
The full report on BCI can be downloaded from www.zyfin.com/research. BCI data is available on
Bloomberg Terminals (INBFBCI<index>)
About ZyFin Research
ZyFin Research is a leading financial research and analytics company, providing objective, timely and
comprehensive information to investors and policy makers on the Indian economy and financial
markets. ZyFin is backed by Zodius Advisors (www.zodius.com) and Anthemis Group
(www.anthemis.com). For more information, please visit http://research.zyfin.com/.
About Zodius Advisors
Zodius Advisors builds businesses in the “new” Digital India. Operational since 2011, Zodius typically
develops one company every six months and works intensively with its portfolio company teams to
“speed up” and “shape up” for exceptional growth and profitability.
About Anthemis Group
Anthemis Group is a specialist holding company providing vision, strategy, leadership and capital to
growth-stage companies with innovative business models at the intersection of financial services,
markets and technology.
Important Links:
www.zyfin.com/research
www.zodius.com
www.anthemis.com
For Further Information please contact:
Karan Datt
Genesis Burson Marsteller PR Ltd.
+91 9920605308
Karan.datt@bm.com
Vinisha Khatwani
Genesis Burson Marsteller PR Ltd.
+91 9769568842
Vinisha.khatwani@bm.com