The document discusses major shifts impacting search, social media, content and advertising. It notes that search demand on Google has plateaued due to various factors like voice search cannibalizing queries and Google getting better at solving searches with one query. Alternatives like Facebook, Amazon and YouTube are also taking some market share. The document provides recommendations for marketers to focus on branded demand generation, control their brand with on-search engine optimization, leverage social media engagement streaks, and focus search engine optimization on longer tail keywords.
If this Giant Must Walk: A Manifesto for a New Nigeria
SearchLove Boston 2019 - Rand Fishkin - Building Influence in 2019
1. Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
Building Influence
As web marketing undergoes its biggest shift in a decade,
how we influence audiences needs to evolve.
11. • Desktop devices average ~800
distinct pages viewed per
month
• Mobile devices averaged ~300
distinct pages viewed per
month
• Slight decrease in mobile
browser pageviews over time
(possibly cannibalized by apps)
• In March 2019, users viewed
2,350 unique pages on desktop
and 680 unique pages on
mobile (monthly counts in the
graph count multiple visits to
the same URL per month as 1)
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
Jan-16
M
ar-16
M
ay-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
N
ov-16
Jan-17
M
ar-17
M
ay-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
N
ov-17
Jan-18
M
ar-18
M
ay-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
N
ov-18
Jan-19
M
ar-19
Avg.#ofPageViews
Average Distinct Pages Viewed Per Device by Month
Mobile Desktop
Despite the Growth of Apps & Domination of Big Tech
Monopolies, the Web Remains a Vibrant, Diverse Ecosystem
12. Where Should We Do Influence Marketing?
Wherever Our Audience Engages.
13. The Major Shifts Impacting
Search, Social,
Content, & Advertising
And How Marketers Can Best React
17. Google Needs Growth, & It’s Not Coming From
New Searchers (at least in developed countries)
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
Jan-16
Feb-16
M
ar-16
A
pr-16
M
ay-16
Jun
-16
Jul-16
A
ug
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Sep-16
O
ct-16
N
ov-16
D
ec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
M
ar-17
A
pr-17
M
ay-17
Jun
-17
Jul-17
A
ug
-17
Sep-17
O
ct-17
N
ov-17
D
ec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
M
ar-18
A
pr-18
M
ay-18
Jun
-18
Jul-18
A
ug
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Sep-18
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ov-18
D
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Jan-19
Feb-19
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ar-19
U.S. Searches by Month (web browsers only)
Google Desktop Google Images Desktop Google Mobile Google Images Mobile
18. 3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand
2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries
(e.g.GoogleHome,GoogleAssistant,andtheirSearchApp)
1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time
(sosearchersdon’tneedtoperformmorequeries)
3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share
(e.g.Facebook,Instagram,DuckDuckGo,YouTube,andAmazon)
19. Theory 1: Google’s Removing the Need for Multiple
Queries on the Same Topic(s)
28. Amazon’s Searched ~1/30th as Much as Google, But…
50,000
500,000
5,000,000
50,000 500,000 5,000,000
GOOGLESEARCHES
AMAZON SEARCHES
Search Volumes for Top 1K Branded and Nonbranded Amazon Keywords on Google and Amazon (2018)
Nonbranded Terms Branded Terms Nonbranded Avg Branded Avg
nintendo switch
laptop
headphones
kindle
ps4
bluetooth headphones
prime video
external hard drive
paper towels
iPhone 7 case
cbd oil
water bottle
iPhone charger
food
lingerie
dog
iPhone xr
adidas
aa batteries
roku
mens socks
monitor
christmas
audible
sheets
29. What About Search on Instagram?
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Jan
-16
M
ar-16
M
ay-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
N
ov-16
Jan
-17
M
ar-17
M
ay-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
N
ov-17
Jan
-18
M
ar-18
M
ay-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
N
ov-18
Jan
-19
M
ar-19
Instagram Hashtag Clicks by Month (Desktop)
IG’s grown ~2.5X on desktop (at a time when desktop overall
shrank). Still <0.1% of Google’s desktop search volume.
30. 3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand
2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries
(e.g.GoogleHome,GoogleAssistant,andtheirSearchApp)
1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time
(sosearchersdon’tneedtoperformmorequeries)
3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share
(e.g.Facebook,Instagram,DuckDuckGo,YouTube,andAmazon)
These two are probably happening.
The third, not so much.
31. What’s Google Doing to
Grow Ad Revenue?
#1: Larger numbers
of more subtle ads
#2: More kinds of ads
32. Google’s Desktop
CTRs March 2019 (US):
Paid: 6.1%
Organic: 65.3%
Zero Click
Searches: 34.7%
*Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery
33. Google’s Mobile CTRs March 2019 (US):
*Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery
Paid: 9.5%
Organic: 38.4%
Zero Click
Searches: 61.6%
34. How Do These Changes Affect Searcher Behavior?
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Jan-16
M
ar-16
M
ay-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
N
ov-16
Jan-17
M
ar-17
M
ay-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
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Jan-18
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Desktop Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero Click Searches (2016-2019)
Desktop Organic Clickthroughs Desktop Paid Clicks Desktop Zero Clicks
Desktop Zero-Click Searches
Up ~12% in 3 Years
35. On Mobile, Those Effects Are Magnified
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19
Mobile Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero-Click Searches (2016-2019)
Mobile Clickthroughs Mobile Paid Clicks Mobile Zero Clicks
Mobile Zero-Click Searches
Up ~20% in 3 Years
36. Google’s 2019 ABCs:
Biasing Visibility & Clicks to Paid Results
Answering Queries in SERPs & Sending Out Less Traffic
Competing Directly with Publishers
(andrankingtheirownpropertiesaheadofanyoneelse’s)
38. Control Your Brand with On-SERP SEO
ID sites that rank in
your space, & build
profiles on them
Claim Your Panels
Leverage the
Rich Snippets
Google Offers
39. When KWs Show
Aggregated Answers,
Influence the Publishers
Below to Get Listed
To Get Into These…
Get Mentioned + Listed In These
42. If Other Sites Can Rank,
But You Can’t (Yet);
Use Barnacle SEO
Every one of these sites
enables user-submitted
or guest editorial
contributions
43. Shift SEO-Focused Content to KWs
Google Is Less Likely to Cannibalize
ViaAhrefs
40%+ of all searches get <100
searches per month. The long
tail is still a gold mine for SEO.
45. But scroll down, and the long
tail still looks mighty attractive
ViaKeywordExplorer
46. Use CTR % Estimates in Your KW Research
This metric uses clickstream data
to estimate the % of searchers
who’ll click on the standard, non-
paid, organic SERPs
50. Social
Follower
Email
Address
Avg
Engagement/
Post or Email
Ability to
Retarget?
Reach on
Other
Platforms
Ability to Get
Audience
Data
Direct
Outreach
Possible?
20.81%*
* Via Mailchimp
Yes,Anywhere Yup. Tons. Yes.
1.73%*
Onlyonthat
Network
Nope. Onlywhatthe
networkgivesyou.
No.
* Via RivalIQ
51. Social’s Traffic is Still Paltry Compared to Search
Via
Google.com
Oct 2016
Facebook.com
Reddit.com
YouTube.com
Imgur.com
Bing.com
Wikipedia.org
Gained/Lost
59.2%
6.5%
5.4%
4.5%
2.2%
2.2%
1.4%
Yahoo.com 6.0%
-1.4%
-1.3%
-2.0%
+0.3%
-1.2%
+1.5%
-0.1%
-1.7%
Amazon.com 1.3% +0.1%
Top Traffic Referrers Feb 2018
57.8%
5.2%
3.4%
4.8%
1.0%
3.7%
1.3%
4.3%
1.4%
55. Now They May Be Targeting the “Link in Bio”
Via AgoraPulse
AgoraPulse’sexperimentfounda34% decrease inavg.reachwhenapost
containedthephrase“linkinbio”orsimilar.
56. YouTube Cuts Off Descriptions to Avoid
Making Links Visible in the Default View
63. Social Algorithms Are Designed to:
Engage
Addict
Retain
Does this content attract users,
generate likes/shares, & hold their
attention?
Do users who see this content
stay on our platform and keep
engaging?
Do users who’ve consumed this
content return to our platform
again & again?
64. When I have a low engagement
post, my next post has a harder
time reaching a big audience.
65. When a post gets high
engagement, FB boosts the reach
of my next post (unless it starts to
show poor engagement)
66. In this way, Facebook (& Twitter,
Instagram, LinkedIn, etc) reward high
engagement streaks and makes
accounts w/ low engagement invisible.
67. To benefit from
this system, use a
formula like this:
High engagement,
non-promotional post
High engagement,
non-promotional post
Promotion w/ CTA
High engagement,
non-promotional post
These earn brand
exposure & new
followers
High engagement,
non-promotional post
68. To benefit from
this system, use a
formula like this:
High engagement,
non-promotional post
High engagement,
non-promotional post
Promotion w/ CTA
High engagement,
non-promotional post
These capitalize on
your algorithmic
reputation for high
engagement, &
earn direct traffic
High engagement,
non-promotional post
69. To Build Brand on
Social, We Need:
2) Contentthatisobviously
connectedtothebrand
1) Contentthatearnshigh
engagement&lification
3) Contentthatcreatesemotional
resonance(bestdonethrough
compellingstories)
70. Use Latent vs. Active Links to Your Site
That’s what I’m
talking ‘bout!
That’s not so
bad, either J
73. For 15 Years, Content Marketing
Worked Great Like This…
74. Content
Flywheel
2001-2016
KW Research +
Industry Intuition
Publish
Content
Promote via
Social Channels
Push to email +
RSS subscribers
Earn Links +
Amplification
Grow social, email,
RSS, & WoM channels
Grow Authority &
Brand Recognition
Earn Search &
Referral Traffic
Rank Higher, Get
More Traffic
75. But, in 2019, Four Forces Work Against This Model
#2 Targeting keywords with “good, unique content” no
longer clears the high bar for earning rankings or shares
#1 Demands for monetization and growth have pushed
tech monopolies to become publishers’ competitors
#3 Amplifiers are more skeptical and jaded than ever
before, and rarely spread commercial content
#4 Traffic quantity correlates less & less with conversions
77. Successful Content Targets Topics that Resonate
with Amplifiers, Not Just Customers
What Your
Customers Care
About
What Influential
Publications &
People Your
Customers Listen
To Care About
Topics with
high potential
reach
78. The Most Visited Piece the NYT Ever Published?
Dialect Quiz Map via NY Times
Grabs you fast, then
demands engagement
Plays to the psychological
desire for categorizing
oneself & others
Creates a viral loop
(through sharing & seeing
friends’ answers)
79. What Makes Content Rank in 2019?
#2 Effectively uses the words, phrases, & concepts Google
associates w/ the query topic (and nails basic KW-matching, too)
#1 Hosted on a domain + subdomain that’s earned a large
number of diverse, high quality links AND had relatively strong
performance in solving searchers’ queries
#3 Earns links, shares, traffic, and engagement to the page itself
#4 Can answer the simplest parts of searcher intent w/o a click
80. Hosted on the Right Domain & Subdomain
Powerful, long-running
sites with loads of links,
engagement, traffic, and
other positive signals
81. Effectively, Accurately, & Comprehensively Covers the Topic
Use the right words, cover the
facts, be accurate, & you rank
Via The Economist
82. Earns Links, Shares, Traffic, & Engagement
Both the “state-by-
state guide,” AND the
“hottest breweries right
now” lists earn top
spots thanks to links,
shares, traffic, &
engagement
84. Can Answer (Simplest Parts of) the Query Without a Click
Outranks the official Moz
docs, in part because they
offer the answer in a
SERP-ready snippet
85. Content as Product
When creating
content products, ask:
What unique value does this
deliver (that no one else does)?
Why will publications and people
amplify/link to this?
How does this create competitive
advantage with barriers to entry?
Explore by Site inside Keyword Explorer
86. Content Doesn’t Have to Be Conversion Focused!
Visitor
Content that Converts them
to Take Action Right Now
Visitor
Content that Creates a
Positive, Memorable
Brand Experience
7-20XEventual
Conversion
Not the
Only W
ay!
87. Content → Email Subscriber → Conversion
“A visitor who reaches us via search is 1/19th as likely
to subscribe as one who comes in from a
newsletter; a reader coming in from Facebook is
1/12th; and a reader coming in from Twitter is 1/6th.”
-Nicholas Thompson, Editor in Chief
Via Wired
91. The Late Adopters Are Finally Crossing the
Digital Marketing Chasm
Via Geoffrey Moore
These players have lots of $$$,
entrenched brands, & are used to
overpaying for untrackable advertising
94. Ad Bids in Many Sectors Go Far Above
What’s Profitable
95. Thus, Ad Costs Go Up, While ROI Trends Down
Via BusinessInsider
96. And Ad Tracking Getting Much Harder
Which Will Reinforce Large Quantities of “Dumb
Money” > More Trackable Advertising
The concept of a 90-day look back
window is a wrap. Retargeting beyond 7
days is dead. Effectively, for a sales cycle of
any realistic length, the whole concept of
attribution outside of last click is over.
Via iPullRank
98. And Accountability is a Massive Issue
Via TheDrum
“I do campaigns for brands on a weekly
basis and less than half ever come back for
metrics; less than 50% ever want to know
what’s happened. That makes me think it’s
PRs playing a numbers game and once a
campaign has gone no one is really
interested.”
100. The Most Followed Account(s) that Match a Keyword Search
Traditional Influencer Marketing Seeks Out:
The Most-Reachable Account(s) that Match a Keyword Search
OR
But That’s Not Really What We Want…
101. Targeting on Audience Size > Audience Match
4mm followers
Followed by 19% of
profiles that frequently
talk about “supercars”
102. What You Really Want: People & Publications Your Audience
Engages With Most
Small overall following, but reaches
exactly who we want to reach!
105. First: Organic + Brand; Then: Ads + CRO
If you’re not yet known, liked,
& trusted, ad ROI sucks.
106. Via Wordstream
New to a market?
This happens.
Known & loved?
Welcome to Profitville.
107. How to Win at Digital Advertising in 2019
Step 2: Earn brand exposure through organic, social,
content, SEO, events, & targeted brand marketing
Step 3: Get >1 organic visit (or a social engagement)
Step 4: Pay to advertise where your audience engages to
those who already know+like you
Step 1: Interview, survey, or use profile data to discover
where your audiences engage (and with whom/what)