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Do plans of central government for
economic growth reflect our spiky
      economic geography?




                   Kevin Richardson
          www.slideshare.net/30088
•Theory and a ‘spiky’ world

•Successively changing policies

•Current Case Studies

  •Local Growth White Paper / LEPs
  •Localism Bill

•Ongoing challenges
Some Theory
• O’Brien (1992) – the ‘end of geography’

• Cairncross (1997) – the ‘death of distance’

• Thomas Friedman (2005) – the ‘World is Flat’

• Krugman et al – NEG & agglomeration

• World Bank Development Report (2009): distance,
  density and difference

• Challenged by the OECD and the European Union
McCann (2010)
Headline GVA NUTS3

18 000



16 000



14 000



12 000
                                                                                                                         Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees
                                                                                                                         South Teesside
10 000                                                                                                                   Darlington
                                                                                                                         Durham CC

 8 000                                                                                                                   Northumberland
                                                                                                                         Tyneside
                                                                                                                         Sunderland
 6 000



 4 000



 2 000



    0
         199 5

                 199 6


                         199 7


                                 199 8


                                         199 9


                                                 200 0


                                                         200 1

                                                                 200 2


                                                                         200 3


                                                                                 200 4

                                                                                         200 5


                                                                                                 200 6


                                                                                                         200 7


                                                                                                                 200 8
GVA per capita index

110.0




100.0




 90.0


                                                                                                          Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees
                                                                                                          Durham CC
 80.0
                                                                                                          Northumberland
                                                                                                          Tyneside


 70.0




 60.0




 50.0
        1995


               1996


                      1997


                             1998


                                    1999


                                           2000


                                                  2001


                                                         2002


                                                                2003


                                                                       2004


                                                                              2005


                                                                                     2006


                                                                                            2007


                                                                                                   2008
Headline GVA NUTS 3

200 000


180 000


160 000


140 000


120 000

                                                                                                                           Inner London
100 000
                                                                                                                           Tyneside

 80 000


 60 000


 40 000


 20 000


     0
          199 5


                  199 6


                          199 7


                                  199 8


                                          199 9


                                                  200 0


                                                           200 1


                                                                   200 2


                                                                           200 3


                                                                                   200 4


                                                                                           200 5


                                                                                                   200 6


                                                                                                           200 7


                                                                                                                   200 8
OECD Review of Newcastle in the North East
•   The reality is that not all communities will benefit equally from the
    region’s growth…..it is for example clear that growth is coming form the
    urban core of the region and this is likely to continue.

•   The concentration of growth and related resources in the City of
    Newcastle (and Tyne and Wear County) suggests that in building the
    critical mass, the city region should strengthen the role of the urban core
    as the growth centre in building the critical mass.

•   A focus on high technology sectors suggests a spatial concentration of
    development in the urban core of the region, with an accompanying
    transport strategy so as to improve the connectivity in the region and
    beyond, thereby enhancing the spatial mobility of the population

•   [However] there is an ambivalence and lack of consensus in the region
    about the role of Newcastle in the region’s future.

•   Finally, as the strategy requires choices to be made as to where (and
    where not) to put resource, a high degree of transparency in decision
    making, and political support are required
OECD Review of Newcastle in the North East
• Central government is the dominant actor in regional
  economic development

• Collective action and identity appears to be as much
  rooted in localities and different cities within the region
  than the regional level, with internal and inwards
  looking divisions and animosities appearing to
  dominate. The basic conditions for building a mode of
  governance are therefore not strong

• There is, of course, no single best level for government
  organisation anywhere. Nevertheless, there is evidence
  from other OECD countries to suggest that governance
  arrangements at a metropolitan or functional urban
  level make sense for issues such as housing, transport,
  economic development, culture, organisation of retail,
  environment, universities, and land use planning
Localism or Renationalisation?
• Abolition of RDAs, Integrated Regional Strategies, Regional
  Funding Allocations, Business Link, Primary Care Trusts,
  Audit Commission, Regional Tourism, Government Offices

• ‘rebalancing’ of economy (by sector, place, public / private)

• New Forms of local finance: New Homes Bonus, Business
  Rates Bonus, Tax Increment Financing

• But effective renationalisation of: Single Programme to
  (national) Regional Growth Fund, venture capital, (e.g.
  Jeremie), business support, tourism, inward investment,
  international trade, sector policy, transport investments,
  employment programmes, EU funding

• Local Enterprise Partnerships & Localism Bill
LEPS: An early critique
• Assessed by the centre against which criteria?

• ‘Functional economic areas’ or administrative
  simplicity?

• Economic growth or sustainable development?

• Doing or thinking? Making difficult strategic choices?

• Accountable? To whom?

• No money, powers, functions, or hard status
Localism
• Directly (imposed) Elected Mayors

• Local referendums

• Neighbourhood Planning

• Devolution and reform of Tax Base to the
  local level e.g. New Homes Bonus
Ongoing Challenges (National)
•   Monetary policy: by definition global/ (inter) national; and effectively stalled

•   Fiscal policy historically severe: no spatial element and/or Keynesian interventionism

•   Unresolved reconciliation of neo-liberal supply side ‘people’ & firm economics with economic
    importance and political transparency of ‘place’ economics

•   Investing in places of growth and opportunity; or in places of need regardless of opportunity;
    in places where people want growth or where growth is not wanted? Jobs to people? Or
    people to jobs?

•   Much local delivery through agents of national government (universities, colleges, highways,
    Job Centre Plus, Skills Funding Agency etc) all driven by central demands; lacking legitimacy
    to make difficult spatial decisions

•   Departmentalism: what real traction from depleted departments of central government; of
    CLG compared to HM Treasury, Cabinet Office, DWP.

•   The continuing role of London
Ongoing Challenges (Local / Sub National)
•   Enabler or direct actor?

•   Dealing with huge cuts and Big Society / privatisation. Councils set free of red
    tape? Over 140 proposals for new regulations, order making powers, duties,
    statutory guidance and requirements on local authorities

•   Dealing directly with central government – with far fewer intermediaries. As seen
    from the centre – (variably) risk averse local government; of limited & reduced
    capacity, leverage, freedoms and leadership(?) From grants to risked based
    investment finance e.g. Tax Increment Financing?

•   From fuzzy boundaries of city-regions to confused boundaries; what relationships
    between Elected Mayors, LEPs, Police Commissioners, Transport Authorities, GP
    Commissioning Consortia, Work Programme, EU Programmes – each with a
    different boundary

•   In absence of sub national spatial strategies, what future for cross boundary
    working e.g. housing, transport etc

•   Dealing with the inevitable spatial implications of (national) space neutral sector
    policies. Will the private sector save us?

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Kevin richardson geography level 3 2011

  • 1. Do plans of central government for economic growth reflect our spiky economic geography? Kevin Richardson www.slideshare.net/30088
  • 2. •Theory and a ‘spiky’ world •Successively changing policies •Current Case Studies •Local Growth White Paper / LEPs •Localism Bill •Ongoing challenges
  • 3. Some Theory • O’Brien (1992) – the ‘end of geography’ • Cairncross (1997) – the ‘death of distance’ • Thomas Friedman (2005) – the ‘World is Flat’ • Krugman et al – NEG & agglomeration • World Bank Development Report (2009): distance, density and difference • Challenged by the OECD and the European Union
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  • 13. Headline GVA NUTS3 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees South Teesside 10 000 Darlington Durham CC 8 000 Northumberland Tyneside Sunderland 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8
  • 14. GVA per capita index 110.0 100.0 90.0 Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees Durham CC 80.0 Northumberland Tyneside 70.0 60.0 50.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  • 15. Headline GVA NUTS 3 200 000 180 000 160 000 140 000 120 000 Inner London 100 000 Tyneside 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8
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  • 23. OECD Review of Newcastle in the North East • The reality is that not all communities will benefit equally from the region’s growth…..it is for example clear that growth is coming form the urban core of the region and this is likely to continue. • The concentration of growth and related resources in the City of Newcastle (and Tyne and Wear County) suggests that in building the critical mass, the city region should strengthen the role of the urban core as the growth centre in building the critical mass. • A focus on high technology sectors suggests a spatial concentration of development in the urban core of the region, with an accompanying transport strategy so as to improve the connectivity in the region and beyond, thereby enhancing the spatial mobility of the population • [However] there is an ambivalence and lack of consensus in the region about the role of Newcastle in the region’s future. • Finally, as the strategy requires choices to be made as to where (and where not) to put resource, a high degree of transparency in decision making, and political support are required
  • 24. OECD Review of Newcastle in the North East • Central government is the dominant actor in regional economic development • Collective action and identity appears to be as much rooted in localities and different cities within the region than the regional level, with internal and inwards looking divisions and animosities appearing to dominate. The basic conditions for building a mode of governance are therefore not strong • There is, of course, no single best level for government organisation anywhere. Nevertheless, there is evidence from other OECD countries to suggest that governance arrangements at a metropolitan or functional urban level make sense for issues such as housing, transport, economic development, culture, organisation of retail, environment, universities, and land use planning
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  • 27. Localism or Renationalisation? • Abolition of RDAs, Integrated Regional Strategies, Regional Funding Allocations, Business Link, Primary Care Trusts, Audit Commission, Regional Tourism, Government Offices • ‘rebalancing’ of economy (by sector, place, public / private) • New Forms of local finance: New Homes Bonus, Business Rates Bonus, Tax Increment Financing • But effective renationalisation of: Single Programme to (national) Regional Growth Fund, venture capital, (e.g. Jeremie), business support, tourism, inward investment, international trade, sector policy, transport investments, employment programmes, EU funding • Local Enterprise Partnerships & Localism Bill
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  • 30. LEPS: An early critique • Assessed by the centre against which criteria? • ‘Functional economic areas’ or administrative simplicity? • Economic growth or sustainable development? • Doing or thinking? Making difficult strategic choices? • Accountable? To whom? • No money, powers, functions, or hard status
  • 31. Localism • Directly (imposed) Elected Mayors • Local referendums • Neighbourhood Planning • Devolution and reform of Tax Base to the local level e.g. New Homes Bonus
  • 32. Ongoing Challenges (National) • Monetary policy: by definition global/ (inter) national; and effectively stalled • Fiscal policy historically severe: no spatial element and/or Keynesian interventionism • Unresolved reconciliation of neo-liberal supply side ‘people’ & firm economics with economic importance and political transparency of ‘place’ economics • Investing in places of growth and opportunity; or in places of need regardless of opportunity; in places where people want growth or where growth is not wanted? Jobs to people? Or people to jobs? • Much local delivery through agents of national government (universities, colleges, highways, Job Centre Plus, Skills Funding Agency etc) all driven by central demands; lacking legitimacy to make difficult spatial decisions • Departmentalism: what real traction from depleted departments of central government; of CLG compared to HM Treasury, Cabinet Office, DWP. • The continuing role of London
  • 33. Ongoing Challenges (Local / Sub National) • Enabler or direct actor? • Dealing with huge cuts and Big Society / privatisation. Councils set free of red tape? Over 140 proposals for new regulations, order making powers, duties, statutory guidance and requirements on local authorities • Dealing directly with central government – with far fewer intermediaries. As seen from the centre – (variably) risk averse local government; of limited & reduced capacity, leverage, freedoms and leadership(?) From grants to risked based investment finance e.g. Tax Increment Financing? • From fuzzy boundaries of city-regions to confused boundaries; what relationships between Elected Mayors, LEPs, Police Commissioners, Transport Authorities, GP Commissioning Consortia, Work Programme, EU Programmes – each with a different boundary • In absence of sub national spatial strategies, what future for cross boundary working e.g. housing, transport etc • Dealing with the inevitable spatial implications of (national) space neutral sector policies. Will the private sector save us?