1. AGRICULTURE
GROSS DISTRICT DOMESTIC PRODUCT
2006-07
Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd.

2. OBJECTIVE
CONTENT OVERVIEW
S TRATEGIC TOOL
HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE
METHODOLOGY
CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES

3. Objective
• Sectoral Share of Agriculture declining over the
years, seeks attention!
• Employing nearly 60% of the labour force of
India, demands great focus…
• Tremendous resource potential across districts,
untapped…

4. Content
Overview FOR ALL 593 DISTRICTS…
• Gross Domestic Product
• Consumer Demographics
• Rural Work Force
• Agricultural Inputs
• Geographical Spread
• Rural Finance
• Agricultural Production
See more…

5. Strategic
tool for… • Input-providing enterprises to explore and tap
the agriculture domain
• Credit facilitating agencies, banks and financial
institutions to ascertain the rural finance
situation
• Companies and SME’s looking for agricultural
markets
• Research firms and Universities
• Policy making departments and individuals

6. OBJECTIVE
CONTENT OVERVIEW
S TRATEGIC TOOL
HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE
METHODOLOGY
CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES

7. GROSS DISTRICT DOMESTIC PRODUCT AGRICULTURE
700,000
600,000
Rs Crore (at current prices)
Gross Domestic Product
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Years
Source: Central Statistical Organization (CSO)
Growth has been low, with fluctuations over the years

8. LEADING DISTRICTS
Top 5 States Share in India’s
GDP Agriculture
2005-06
Uttar Pradesh 14.49%
Andhra Pradesh 8.87%
West Bengal 7.94%
Maharashtra 7.76%
Punjab 6.56%

9. H ETEROGENEITY I N G ROWTH P ERFORMANCE
Annualized G rowth in real terms since 1993-94
High Growth
Nagaland 15.34%
Orissa 6.90%
Mizoram 6.33%
Meghalaya 5.92%
Jharkhand 4.50%
Low Growth
Pondicherry -2.66%
Kerala -2.48%
Chhattisgarh -2.40%
Chandigarh -1.11%
Tamil Nadu -0.91%

10. Income from
Agriculture
• Variation at District level agriculture income
estimations
• Exploring intra-state differential in agricultural
performance
• The District therefore comes across as the
crucial point of planning and policy intervention
• Effective implementation at the district level
gets constrained for the want of credible and
timely information
• By presenting the agricultural income
estimates at district level, Indicus allows
for better- informed and comprehensive
decision-making

11. OBJECTIVE
CONTENT OVERVIEW
S TRATEGIC TOOL
HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE
METHODOLOGY
CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES

12. MODIFYING THE STIPULATED CSO METHODOLOGY
• Data availability is highly uneven across states
as well as time.
• District-level information on Crop inputs is
rarely available in government publications.
Methodology
• Econometric tests on available DDP data show
that value of production (VoP) is the best
determinant of district agriculture GDP.
• Hence VOP has been used to estimate the
AGDDP. Accordingly, for each state, 20
main crops were taken, which account for
75% to 99% of CSO’s total VOP estimates.

13. • As the number of districts changed over the
years, comparing time series data is rendered
difficult.
• A unique feature of this database is that it
allows for comparability across time, by
accounting for the reorganization of
districts.
• For the newly created districts, the crop
production of the old undivided district was
Methodology… proportionally allocated for new ones, based on
their latest production data.
Production
• The underlying assumption is that proportional
distribution of the latest year’s production holds
good in the past as well.
• The dataset covers 593 districts, following the
Census 2001 list
• The average production for adjoining two years
during early & late 90’s has been considered as
the two time points to calculate the trend rate
over the time period.

14. • Base data for Prices were sourced from the
Ministry of Agriculture publication,
Agricultural Prices in India 1999.
• In order to extrapolate prices for the
Methodology succeeding years, the average annual
inflation rates have been used per crop
…Price from the Wholesale Price Index.
• However, there are numerous missing
observations. In the absence of data for a
particular crop price in a year for a certain
district, the All India average price has been
used for the crop.

15. • VOP = Σ (Production X Price) across all
crops in the district.
• District level estimates of VOP have then
Methodology… been calibrated to the state level VOP.
District Domestic
Product • These District VOP proportions are then
used to proportionately distribute the State
GSDP from Agriculture at current prices
amongst the districts.

16. OBJECTIVE
CONTENT OVERVIEW
S TRATEGIC TOOL
HETEROGENEITY IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE
METHODOLOGY
CREDIBILITY OF ES TIMATES

17. Comparison of District level Agriculture GDP Estimates
10000
Govt. Of Arunachal Pradesh Estimates
2
R = 0.8365
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Credibility of Indicus Estimates
Estimates…

18. ORDER NOW!!!
Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd.
2nd Floor, Nehru House,
4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg
New Delhi- 110002.
Phone: 91-11-42512400/01
www.indicus.net