This document reviews the UK's domestic target for reducing CO2 emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2010. It provides background on international climate change agreements like the Kyoto Protocol and analyses the UK government's policies and projections. The UK is currently not on track to meet its 20% domestic target, with projections showing a shortfall of around 10.5 million tons of carbon. A case study compares the CO2 emissions of a sustainable residential development versus a non-sustainable one, finding that sustainable construction can significantly reduce emissions.

1. CO2 Emissions,
Edward William Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP A Review of The United Kingdom’s
Domestic Target
CO2 Emissions,
A Review of The United Kingdom’s
Domestic Target
Edward William Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP
ABSTRACT
This paper provides a review of CO2 emissions within the UK. A detailed account of all the
fundamental world conferences and steps taken to curtail CO2 emissions globally is provided.
The review considers the International, European and the United Kingdom’s (UK) specific
CO2 emission reduction targets established by the Kyoto Protocol (KP) and also analyses the
UK governments even more challenging 20% CO2 emission reduction target by 2010.
Government schemes, papers & legislation to achieve this domestic goal are reviewed
focussing upon the mechanisms in place working to achieve the target and mechanisms in
place working against the target. CO2 emissions predictions by the UK government are
analysed until 2010 and the review concludes a UK shortfall from the domestic target of
approximately 10.5MtC of which the Built Environment sector accounts for 5MtC.
A case study focuses upon the difference of CO2 emission between a sustainable and a non-
sustainable residential development. An analysis is presented providing the CO2 emission
from each building. Through a process of mathematics the sustain-ably constructed building
identifies a difference of CO2 emissions from the non-sustainable building. This difference is
then divided into the UK domestic target shortfall. The answer of 500,000 equates to the
required number of similar sized sustainable construction projects within the UK to bring the
Built Environment sector back on tract to meet the UK CO2 Emission, 20% Domestic Target
by 2010.
1

2. CO2 Emissions,
Edward William Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP A Review of The United Kingdom’s
Domestic Target
INTRODUCTION assessments & concludes with respective
CO2 emissions from each development.
Climate Change (CC) and Global Warming
(GW) are unequivocally the biggest and The UK domestic target is once more
most fundamental problems facing planet defined, in particular the anticipated CO2
earth and mankind today. CC and GW is emission shortfall. Through a process of
the greatest environmental challenge mathematics the sustainable construction
facing mankind today as they are case study identifies a difference of CO2
expected to have a cataclysmic effect emissions from the non-sustainable
across the globe. Rising global building. This difference is then divided
temperatures will bring changes in into the domestic target shortfall. The
weather patterns, rising sea levels and answer generally equates to the required
increased frequency and intensity of number of sustainable construction
extreme weather events. The effects will projects required to place the UK on track
be felt globally and time scale is subject to for an achievable domestic goal.
the sensitivity of our climate system. The
philosophy of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) [1] THE ROAD TO KYOTO
stipulates the worst effects of CC can be
avoided if greenhouse gases incorporating In 1896 Svante Arrhenius, suggested that
carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere changes in CO2 levels over 100,000 year
are stabilised instead of being allowed to time scales were a critical factor in the
increase on planet Earth. natural cycles between ice ages [2].
A detailed account of all the fundamental Seuss and Revelle in 1957 were scientists
world conferences and steps taken to with the Scripps Institute of Oceanography
curtail CO2 emission globally is provided. (SIO) [3]. They reported CO2 emitted into
the atmosphere by industrial activities was
This paper considers the United not being absorbed by the oceans. They
Kingdom’s (UK) specific CO2 emission suggested the increase of CO2 in the
reduction target established by the KP. atmosphere is "a large-scale geophysical
The UK is striving to pioneer the way experiment" with the Earth’s climate.
forward for CO2 emission reduction and
has subsequently set an even more Keeling in 1958, was a scientist with the
challenging domestic goal. The target is Scripps Institute, he began the first reliable
analysed taking into account government and continuous measurements of
schemes, papers & legislation put in place atmospheric CO2 [4].
to achieve this more stringent objective.
Mechanisms in place working to achieve Stockholm 1972 saw the first United
the target and mechanisms in place Nations (UN) Conference on the human
working against the target are evaluated. environment [5]. CC was identified as a
pressing issue. The UN initiated the
Projected CO2 emission reduction by the Environment Programme.
UK government is analysed until 2010 and
a shortfall is identified. Geneva 1979 saw the first World Climate
Conference [6]. The World Climate
The construction industry is pivotal to a Program was formed to coordinate global
successful achievement of the domestic research on CC and collect scientific data.
goal. Sustainable construction
undoubtedly reduces CO2 emissions. In Villach (Austria) Conference in 1985
order for the review to provide and issued a warning that "Many important
authoritative conclusion, the paper economic decisions are based on the
provides a residential case study. assumption that past climate is a reliable
guide to the future. This is no longer a
The case study concentrates on the good assumption." [7]
difference of CO2 emission between
sustainable and non-sustainable The Montreal Protocol was established in
construction. An analysis of two 1987. Twenty-four countries agreed to
residential buildings are presented freeze consumption of CFCs and halons at
focussing upon building fabric, ‘U’ values, 1986 levels, and reduce consumption by
heat gains, heat losses, benchmark BRE 50% by the year 1997 [8].
2

3. CO2 Emissions,
Edward William Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP A Review of The United Kingdom’s
Domestic Target
The Intergovernmental Panel on CC [9] INTERNATIONAL, EUROPEAN UNION,
(IPCC) was established in 1988 and was THE UK’S COMMITMENT AND THE
headed up by Bert Bolin. The IPCC was DOMESTIC TARGET
composed mainly of people who
participated not only as science experts The United Nations Framework
but also as official representatives of their Convention on Climate Change
government’s. The IPCC was collated by (UNFCCC), and the provisions of the KP
the UN Environment Programme and the to that Convention stipulates developed
World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) countries have agreed that they will cut
to assess the scientific research on CC their overall emissions of greenhouse
and its environmental impacts. gases by 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-
2012 [14].
Figure Number 1 – Bert Bolin
th
Since Russia ratified the KP on 16
February 2005, the KP is now international
law [15] and the targets are legally
binding.
The European Union (EU) and its Member
States have agreed to meet a joint target
of 8% reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions below 1990 levels between
2008-2012 [16].
This 'bubble' arrangement allows the EU's
target to be redistributed between member
states (MS) to reflect their national
circumstances, requirements for economic
growth, and the scope for further emission
reductions.
The Conference on the Changing
Atmosphere in Toronto 1988 identified a
In June 1998, the UK agreed to reduce its
20% reduction in CO2 emissions
emissions by 12.5%, which is the UK’s
requirement [10].
legally binding target under the KP.
The first assessment report by the IPCC
The UK signed the UNFCCC on the 12th
was endorsed at Geneva 1990 [11] during
June at Rio de Janeiro 1992 and ratified it
the Second World Climate Conference.
on the 8th December 1993 [17]. The
The conference suggested an international
Government is now obligated to meet the
agreement to mitigate global warming.
commitments of the UNFCCC.
One of the outcomes of the UN
The UK Government has set a domestic
Conference on Environment and
goal to go further than the KP commitment
Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro
and cut the UK’s emissions of CO2 by 20%
1992 [12] was that 154 nations signed the
below 1990 levels by 2010 [18]
UNFCCC, voluntarily agreeing to stabilize
greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels
The 2003 Energy White Paper (EWP)
by the year 2000.
announced that the government would put
the UK on a pathway to achieve CO2
The first assessment by the IPCC was
emission reductions of 60% by 2050 [19].
released in 1995 [13]. The conclusion
suggested “the balance of evidence
suggests that there is a discernible human
influence on global climate."
Kyoto Japan in 1997 saw the birth of the
KP when 159 nations negotiated a treaty
setting out legally binding reduction
targets.
3

4. CO2 Emissions,
Edward William Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP A Review of The United Kingdom’s
Domestic Target
CURRENT UK EMISSIONS that can be quantified, it was estimated the
programme could also deliver a cut of 19%
The graph below indicates CO2 emission in CO2 by 2010.
data for the top ten polluting countries in
2004. It can be seen from the graph, the The main projections of the UK's
UK CO2 emissions equate to emissions of CO2 are derived from the DTI
approximately 150MtC / year. energy model. This is basically a set of
interlocking models of final user energy
Figure Number 2 – Top Ten Countries sectors and the electricity supply sector. It
Carbon Emissions [20] is predominantly a 'top down' model (see
Fig 3 below), based around
econometrically estimated relationships
between energy demand, economic
activity (income) and energy prices [22]
The DTI produce and publish energy
projections for the UK and anticipated CO2
emissions [21].
Figure Number 4 – Top Down Model
[21]
The UK currently contributes 2.3%
towards the overall production of CO2
emission on earth. The production of CO2
within the UK is divided into various
sectors:
Figure Number 3 – Sectors Within The
UK Producing CO2 Emissions [20] Current projections indicate and by
Governments own admission; the UK is
currently not on target to achieve the
domestic goal [23]. The projection of CO2
Buildings Industrial & emissions by 2010 is currently 141.3MtC
20% Manufacturing [24]. The UK domestic goal is 130.8MtC
Process
20% by 2010. This equates to a shortfall of
10.5MtC and an overall CO2 reduction of
14%. Although the KP and subsequently
Domestic the EU targets are being achieved, this is
28% considerably lower than the UK (20%
reduction) domestic target.
Transport
32%
MECHANISMS IN PLACE WORKING TO
ACHIEVE THE UK DOMESTIC TARGET
There are various mechanisms in place
working to achieve the UK CO2 emission
reduction target. The governments
PREDICTED UK EMISSIONS BY 2010 Department of Trade and Industry (DTI)
whose main driving force is to ensure the
There have been various updates of CO2 UK domestic target is achievable through
emission predictions over time. The CC the EWP. The Department for
programme set out a wide-ranging Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
package of policies and measures. It (DEFRA) are continually analysing the
estimated that the policies could reduce situation associated with CO2 emission
the UK greenhouse gas emissions to 23% reduction and bring emissions to the
below 1990 levels by 2010 [21]. forefront of speeches and debates.
Furthermore, on the basis of the policies
4

5. CO2 Emissions,
Edward William Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP A Review of The United Kingdom’s
Domestic Target
Grants are often available through CASE STUDY
government to offset high pay-back
periods for sustainable equipment thus Two similar sized residential buildings
ensuring financial feasibility. Professional have been selected for a case study. The
bodies are also following the sustainability Green Building is Sustainable and Heaton
theme and often promote sustainable Park Development is not sustainable. In
development during conferences. order to correctly establish the CO2
emissions from each development the
The most important mechanism in place following case study model has been
working towards delivering a low carbon utilised for each building
built environment is Building Regulations
Part ‘L’ which specify levels of CO2 Figure Number 5 – Case Study Model
emission from construction projects must
not be compromised during design.
MECHANISMS IN PLACE WORKING
AGAINST THE UK TARGET
There are various mechanisms in place
working against the UK CO2 emission
reduction target. The construction industry
is cost orientated and sustainable
technologies are often discarded early in
the design process due to anticipated
increased Cap Ex. Grants which are often
available to offset high Cap Ex and pay-
back periods are difficult to obtain. The
application process can be long winded
and onerous. The current low cost of
utilities is another problem as clients are
not focussed on energy costs and only a
minimal number of clients consider the life
cycle cost of their buildings. Although the
Building Regulations Part ‘L’ are in place
to ensure energy conservation, building
control knowledge of the complicated
calculation process is limited. Scores of
inefficient projects slip through the net
because of inadequate building control
understanding.
MECHANISMS COMPARISON CO2 Calculation Process
Considering the mechanisms working The CO2 calculation process is complex
toward the target, the mechanisms and identifies the anticipated CO2
working against the target and the actual emission from the each development. The
target prediction for 2010, it is clear much calculation method utilised to determine
more work is required to successfully meet emissions from each development is
the UK domestic goal. defined within Schools Environmental
Assessment Method (SEAM) by the
Generally, the mechanisms in place department for Education and
working to achieve the target are vast and Employment. The calculation is defined on
with the correct implication could bring the page 29 [25]. The calculation process
UK back on track to meet the UK domestic considers construction and energy
goal. However, it appears the same consumption principles and is therefore
mechanisms are working against not limited to schools.
themselves. Good measures have been
put in place, generally by government, but The calculation procedure is undertaken
the processes to implement the measures by the following steps:
are obstructive.
5

6. CO2 Emissions,
Edward William Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP A Review of The United Kingdom’s
Domestic Target
• The floor areas, walls, windows and The Green Building provides a mixed-used
‘U’ values for each apartment is complex, created for comfortable, modern
measured, and sustainable use. In addition to 32
apartments, there is a 120-place pre-
• The total heat losses for each school nursery.
apartment are calculated:
A number of sustainable design elements
• Q=UA(T1-T0) Watts, are incorporated in the Green Building,
including a ten-storey cylindrical ‘drum’
• The natural ventilation losses (Taken housing the apartments which utilise both
as an average considering toilets) for natural ventilation and underfloor heating
each apartment are calculated: supplied via condensing boilers. The
building is complete with roof mounted
• Q=0.33NV(T1-T0) Watts, solar collectors and a wind turbine
providing power for the communal lighting.
• All gains, power, lighting, solar &
occupancy are calculated, The Green Building is clad in a recyclable
insulating material in cool green with
• The total heating requirement contrasting wood panels. Brightly
established in kWh coloured sections are interspersed with
floor-to-ceiling glazed panels and timber-
framed windows. This encourages natural
• The anticipated electrical consumption
light in to the open environment.
is estimated in kWh
HEATON PARK DEVELOPMENT
• The calculated gas and electricity
consumption is converted to CO2
Figure Number 7 – Heaton Park
emissions utilising conversion factors
identified in Building Regulations Part
‘L’ (Gas @ 0.192 and Grid Supplied
Electricity @ 0.422).
• Once the anticipated CO2 emission
has been calculated for each
apartment the figures (KgCO2) are
collated for the entire building on an
annual basis i.e. kgCO2/year.
THE GREEN BUILDING
Figure Number 6 – The Green Building
The Heaton Park Development is a non-
sustainable building located in
Manchester.
The building comprises 23 apartments
spread over 2 buildings (existing church
and a new building). The converted
church has 5 levels and the new building
has 3 levels with a community centre.
The Heaton Park development is not
sustainable. The church refurbishment
was exempt from building regulations and
subsequently it was not necessary to
The Green Building is a sustainable increase the building performance with
development located in Macintosh Village, respect to energy efficiency.
Manchester City Centre.
6

7. CO2 Emissions,
Edward William Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP A Review of The United Kingdom’s
Domestic Target
The new building was subject to Building Sustainable development at the residential
Regulations. The developer wanted to case study can save 10 Tonnes Carbon
maximise the profitability of the scheme annually. This divided into the UK built
and therefore discarded recommendations environment shortfall equates to a
for the installation of sustainable requirement of 500,000 similar sized
technologies. sustainable projects within the UK.
CASE STUDY RESULTS CONCLUSION
CO2 emissions from each development The paper has provided an account of the
were calculated with the following results main driving forces to successfully achieve
utilising the case study model. the UK CO2 reduction targets namely,
EWP, DEFRA, DTI, & various other
Table Number 1 – CO2 Emissions from government funded companies / trusts.
The Green Building and Heaton Park
Development The UK target under the KP to reduce a
basket of six greenhouse gases to 12.5%
below 1990 levels by 2008 - 2012 is
Development KgCO2/Yr currently on schedule. However, the
domestic goal of a 20% reduction in CO2
The Green Building 53,000 emissions below 1990 levels by 2010 is
currently not on target. The review
identifies there will be a shortfall of
Heaton Park approximately 10.5MtC for which
90,000
Development approximately 47% is attributed to the built
environment. The overall reduction of CO2
emission is currently running at
DISCUSSION
approximately 14% below 1990 levels.
This equates to a 6% CO2 emission
Information provided in the case study
shortfall from the domestic target.
shows the sustainable building can
potentially save 37,000 KgCO2 / year ie:
The mechanisms working to achieve the
UK CO2 reduction target are mainly
90,000 – 53,000 = 37,000 KgCO2 / year
government initiated and can be very
successful, in particular the building
It is important to note the potential savings
regulations as they are law. However,
through sustainable construction between
almost all the government initiated drivers
two residential developments in
in one way or another are working against
Manchester is measured in CO2. The UK
themselves effectively becoming
domestic target is measured in CO2 but
mechanisms working against the UK CO2
the target shortfall is defined in carbon.
reduction targets.
The current projected shortfall of the UK
The case study analyses two residential
domestic target is 10.5MtC. Buildings
developments. Consideration is given for a
account for 47% emissions therefore 47%
sustainable development against a non-
of the shortfall is attributed to the built
sustainable development. The results
environment.
conclude the sustainable development
produces much less CO2 emission and
The Built environment should therefore
can potentially save 10 Tonnes Carbon
consider saving approximately 5MtC/year
annually. Through calculation 500,000
to assist the UK to get back on track to
similar sized projects would be required to
meet the domestic target.
bring the built environment sector back on
track for the successful achievement of the
Potential Savings in CO2 converted to
UK domestic target.
Carbon, Calculation:
By Edward Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP
(37000 x 12 ) / 44 = 10000KgC
10,000 / 1000 = 10 tC
7

8. CO2 Emissions,
Edward William Jolly MSc BEng (Hons) MCIBSE LEED AP A Review of The United Kingdom’s
Domestic Target
REFERENCES 13. American Institute of Physics. The
Discovery of Global Warming on the internet.
1. United Nations Framework Convention on AIP Organisation available at:
Climate Change. Documents of the conference www.aip.org/history/climate/Internat.htm
of the parties at the third session COP-3 on the
internet. Available at: www.unfccc.int/cop3 14. Department for Environment, Food & Rural
Affairs (DEFRA). Climate change UK
2. Earth Observatory, Electronic Library programme on the internet. Available at
Resources, On the Shoulders of Giants on the www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/
internet. Available at: cm4913/summary/01.htm
www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/Giants/
Arrhenius/ 15. Asia news network. Asia and the world: on
the internet. Kyoto Protocol takes effect,
3. Climate Change and Sustainable Russian president Vladimir Putin. Available at:
Development. Anil Markandya, Publisher www.asianewsnet.net/level3_template1.php?l3
James & James (Science Publishers) Ltd. sec=4&news_id=36142
ISBN 1853839108
16. The Review of Energy Sources for Power
4. Kenyon College Biology Department. Generation and Government response to fourth
Global Change: On The Internet. Available At: and fifth Reports of the Department of Trade
www.Biology.Kenyon.Edu/Courses/Biol112/Biol and Industry Committee, Cmd 4071, TSO,
112webpage/Syllabus/Topics/Week%209/Wee October 1998.
k%209.Htm
17. United Nations Framework Convention on
5. Environmental Law (4th Edition). Neil Climate Change. Documents of the conference
Stanley & Susan Wolf, Publisher Cavendish of the parties at the fourth session COP-4 on
Publishing Ltd (Uk). ISBN 1859418325 the internet. Available at:
www.unfccc.int/cop4/conv/ratlist.pdf
6. Dictionary of Global Climate Change
W.J. Maunder, publisher Taylor & Francis Ltd 18. Our Common Future. C. Tomlinson,
ISBN: 1857282841 Publisher Oxford Paperbacks, ISBN
019282080X
7. Journal: Climate Change. Article: The
Carbon War, Global Warming and the End of 19. Department of Trade and Industry. Energy
the Oil Era. By Jeremy Leggett. Publisher White Paper. Our Common Future.
Springer Netherlands. Volume 54, Number 4 /
September, 2002 20. Energy Projections for the UK. Energy Use
and Energy-Related Emissions of Carbon
8. Environmental Effects of Ozone Depletion: Dioxide in the UK,. 1995-2020, Energy Paper
Pursuant to Article 6 of the Montreal Protocol Number 65, HMSO, March 1995
on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer
by United Nations Environment Programme. 21. The report, the Global Atmosphere
Publisher United Nations. ISBN 9211270219 Research Programme 2000-2002, is published
by the Department for Environment, Food and
9. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage: Rural Affairs (DEFRA)
Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change by Intergovernmental Panel 22. Conclusions of The Review of Energy
on Climate Change. Publisher Cambridge Sources for Power Generation and
University Press. ISBN 0521685516 Government response to fourth and fifth
Reports of the Department of Trade and
10. Friedns of the Earth. The International Industry Committee, Cmd 4071, TSO, October
Politics of Climate Change, From scientific 1998.
knowledge to effective action, A selection of
key dates and events on the internet. Available 23. BBC News. Environment Secretary
at:www.foe.co.uk/resource/briefings/internation Margaret Beckett statement, Not on Target on
alpolitics.html the internet. Available at:
www.news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4851418.stm
11. United Nations. Earth Summit+5.
Combating Global Warming: The Climate 24. The Department of Trade and Industry -
Change Convention on the internet. Available DTI, Updated Emissions Projections Final
at:www.un.org/ecosocdev/geninfo/sustdev/clim Projections To Inform The National Allocation
ate.htm Plan (NAP).
12. United Nations. Earth Summit. United 25. Schools' environmental assessment
Nations Organisation on the internet. Available method (SEAM). Published by Department for
at: www.un.org/geninfo/bp/enviro.html Education and Employment. Building Bulletin
83
8