Presentation made by Vasudha Foundation Programme Manager Siddharth Chatpalliwar at the "Low Carbon Options in South Asia" workshop held in Nepal in August 2014.

1. Climate Change Implications
for South Asia
by
Siddharth Chatpalliwar
Vasudha Foundation

2. Broad Outline-
• Highlights of IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report
• Comparison of the Fourth and Fifth
Assessment Reports
• Challenges posed by climate change for South
Asia
• Key messages for South Asia.

3. Highlights of AR 5
1. Human activity- greater than 95% chance that human
activities are the dominant cause of observed warming
since the 1950s.
1. Global changes- estimated warming of 0.85 degrees
Celsius since 1880, with the fastest rate of warming in
the Arctic.
1. Sea- level rise- Greater that 66% chance that the Arctic
Ocean will be ice free during a greater part of the
summer before 2050 under a high emission scenario.

4. Aerosols
Solar, Volcanic
Observed
CO2, CH4, N2O
Anthropogenic
Internal Variability
Global mean warming since 1951 (°C)
IPCC 2013
Fig. © Human influence on the climate system

5. © IPCC 2013

6. 4. Surface warming pause- the recent reduction in
surface warming is probably due to a redistribution of
heat in the ocean, volcanic eruptions, and the recent
minimum in the 11-year solar cycle.
5. Cumulative carbon budget- a GHG emissions budget
of 840Gt of carbon has been identified. More than half
of that (over 531GtC) has already been emitted.
6. Land based food systems- climate change to affect
food security in areas where most of the world’s food
production occurs.

8. Comparison between AR4 and AR5
• Global sea level is expected to rise more by
2100 than previously projected.
• There is less confidence that global average
rainfall has increased in the past, but greater
confidence that it will increase in the future.
• No change to earlier conclusion regarding
trends in flooding.
• No change to earlier conclusions about the
likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity.

9. Challenges for South Asia
• Temperature rise- average annual temperatures could rise by
more than 2°C over land in most of South Asia by the mid-21st
century and exceed 3°C under a high emissions scenario.
• Rainfall trends- by mid-21st century southern areas of Asia will
experience more rainfall. Rainfall will be more extreme near the
centres of tropical cyclones making landfall in south asia.
• Sea level rise- magnitude of sea level rise by the century’s end
implies increased risks for South Asia’s coastal settlements
particularly if combined with changes in cyclone frequency or
intensity.

10. • Coastal systems- sea level rise will lead to submergence, coastal
flooding, and erosion.
• Climate change will cause declines in agricultural productivity in
many sub-regions of Asia, for crops such as rice and wheat. This
could lead to higher food prices and living costs, malnutrition,
and worsened rural poverty.
• Marine systems- higher latitudes will see more biodiversity
while marine population will decline in tropical latitudes.
• Flood damage- risk of floods poses a threat to infrastructure,
livelihoods, and settlements.
• Heat related mortality is another major challenge.

11. Projected Precipitation change in South Asia
Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections

14. Key messages for South Asia
• South Asia’s climate is already changing and its impacts
are already being felt.
• Mitigation for decarbonizing the economy is absolutely
essential to reduce the impacts of climate change.
• Some low carbon options may be less costly in the long
run but could offer new economic opportunities for
South Asia.
• South Asia stands to benefit from integrated climate
adaptation, mitigation, and development approaches.

15. Thank You!