Presentation on the Decision and policy Analysis Program (DAPA) of CIAT.

1. TheDecision and PolicyAnalysisProgram

2. Our vision We strongly believe in the power of information for making better decisions about agricultural and natural resource investments, from the farm- to the global- level. Numbers. Maps. Graphs. Insights. Better public and private policies

3. Our modus operandi Thematically diverse, united by spatial, economic and institutional analysis Converting data to information to policy and decision insights Demand-driven by other CIAT programs and partners needs in Latin America Eco-efficiency as a guiding principle

4. The Oldies Simone Staiger Ana Milena Guerrero Glenn Graham Hyman Lilian Patricia Torres Robert Andrade Enna Diaz Betancourt Anton Eitzineger Simon Cook Silvia Elena Castaño Jorge Cardona Carlos Nagles Andy Jarvis

5. The Youth Jhon Ocampo Julián Ramirez Natalia Uribe Louis Reymondin Nora Castañeda Hector Favio Tobón Elizabeth Barona Ovidio Rivera Juan Carlos Andrade Daniel Jimenez Mike Salazar Vanesa Herrera

6. Victor Augusto Lizcano Carolina Argote D. Katherin Tehelen Angelica Ma. Henao Emmanuel Zapata Daniel Amariles Oriana Carolina Ovalle And the positively under-age The Peter Jones Scholarship for Agricultural Informatics

7. Arreglo de disco Alternate servers Arreglo de disco Blade Array disk

8. Our themes Output 1: Impact assessment for targeting, documenting and increasing the effectiveness of research and development Output 2: Policy guidelines, tools and innovations for managing ecosystem services to the benefit of the rural poor Output 3: Estimated impacts of climate change on agricultural systems, and identification of adaptation pathways for the rural poor Output 4: Policy guidelines and innovations to ensure pro-poor and equitable supply chains in the face of a highly dynamic world

9. Impact assessment and targetting Institutionalhouseforimpactassessment: quantifying and communicatingourimpact Large-scale, multi-country, and beyondadoption Impactmapping: where and howtowork? Forresearchand development FacilitatingImpactTeam (FIT): methodsformaximisingourimpactthroughparticipatorymethods

10. Targeting Cassava Pest and Disease Problems Environment Characterization Climate change

11. Theme 2 - Ecosystem Services Facilitating Impact Team (FIT) To improve the engagement processes and socialization mechanisms of CIAT’s research with their stakeholders throughout the project cycle and contribute to scaling out and up of research outputs. Increase the effectiveness of research and development activities through the use of knowledge sharing principles, tools, methods and monitoring methodologies.

12. CIAT’sworkonEcosystemservices ES thathave a national, regional orinternationalmarket Abovegroundcarbon Water Puttingthenumberson ES flows in an integratedmanner (social, biophysical, and economicbenefits) Learningfrombroadrange of cases Enablingthepoortoengage and benefitfromemerging ES marketopportunities

13. OpportunityCoststhrougheconomicmodelling

14. Costos de oportunidad en el espacio Precio maximo Precio medio

15. Costo de oportunidad por t/CO2

16. Climatechange Puttingthenumbersonimpact: locally, regionally and globally Evaluatingadaptationmeasuresthroughscenarioanalysis at multiplelevels Policies (e.g.weather-indexinsurance) Technologies (e.g.cropimprovement) Practices (e.g. use of shadecrops) Influencingpolicythroughclearmessagesdeliveredtotherightpeople

17. Bases de Datos 18 modelos para 2050, 9 para 2020 Diferentes escenarios, A1b, B1, commit Downscaled usando metodos estadisticos http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/home.html

18. Worldwide cassava production climatic constraints Grey areas are the crop’s main niche. Blue areas constrained by precipitation Yellow-orange constrained by temperature

19. Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts

20. …….and for Latin America?Drought or flooding tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint

21. …….and for Latin America?Heat or cold tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance

25. BIG markets and BIG marketopportunities What public and private policies and organisational arrangements are needed for the poor to benefit from international markets in a globalised world? Effective and sustained farm to market links require three components: Farmers that are attractive partners for market actors Market actors willing to invest in working with small producers An effective enabling environment to support / govern these links

26. Science for impact: Linking Farmers to Markets New business models for sustained trading relationships