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The Italian
NPL market
Why investing in
Italy?


April 2011
Foreword & Content


Foreword                                         Content


Given the recent increase in activity on loan
portfolios in a number of key banking
jurisdictions across Europe, including Italy,    1.   The macroeconomic and real
and the complexity of the Italian NPL market,
                                                      estate market environment
we thought useful sharing the main features of
the current market and the reasons on why        2.   The Italian banking system in a
this market might be interesting from an
investor perspective.                                 nutshell
As per our extensive experience in advising      3.   Do banks need to urgently sell
both buyers and sellers in the main NPL deals
arranged in Italy we would be happy to                NPLs?
provide you with further insights on such
market and on how turning your investment        4.   How big is the Italian NPLs
goals into a successful transaction.                  market?

                                                 5.   The NPLs management
Kind Regards
                                                 6.   Past NPLs transactions and
                                                      investors interest
Fedele Pascuzzi
fedele.pascuzzi@it.pwc.com                       7.   Closing remarks

Antonella Pagano
antonella.pagano@it.pwc.com


Laura Gasparini
laura.gasparini@it.pwc.com




                                                                                    April 2011
PwC                                                                                          1
1                     The macroeconomic and real estate
                      market environment

A slow moving economy but with a                           Table 1: GDP data
liquid Real Estate market
                                                                       GDP - percentage change on prev ious y ear
After a negative trend in 2009, Italian GDP                                                    2009A             2010F              2011F               2012F
recorded a positive result (+1.3%) and is expected to     Italy                                -5,2%              1,3%                  1,1%             1,4%

grow over the next couple of years, even if at a slow     France                                -2 ,6%             1 ,6%                1 ,6%            1 ,8%
                                                          Germ any                              -4 ,7 %           3 ,6%                 2 ,2 %           2 ,0%
pace.                                                     UK                                    -4 ,9%             1 ,3 %               2 ,2 %           2 ,5%
                                                          Spain                                 -3 ,7 %           -0,1 %                0,7 %            1 ,7 %
Unemployment rate in 2010 stands at 8.5%, below
                                                          Euro Area (1 6 countries)             -4 ,1 %            1 ,7 %               1 ,5%            1 ,8%
Euro area average (10.6%) and is expected to
                                                          Source: Eurostat
remain stable 1 .
                                                          Table 2: Real Estate turnover
In 2010 the amount of loans to Italian non financial
institutions increased by 1.6%, versus an average of                               2010F                            % Change YoY
0.4% of the Euro area countries, thus confirming the      Count ry                Volumes      2007              2008           2009      2010F          2011F

positive attitude towards the Italian system 2.           Italy
                                                          of which: Residential
                                                                                     111.500
                                                                                      91.200
                                                                                                      4,9
                                                                                                      5,0
                                                                                                                  -3,6
                                                                                                                  -4,3
                                                                                                                                -10,0
                                                                                                                                -10,1
                                                                                                                                                 1,6
                                                                                                                                                  1,9
                                                                                                                                                            2,7
                                                                                                                                                            NA
                                                                    Offices            7.000          7,1          1,3           -6,6            -1,4       NA
Real estate market has been more stable than other                  Commercial         7.800          4,1          2,6           -2,6             2,6       NA
                                                          France                     135.150          3,0         -1,2          -18,7            0,8        2,5
European countries during the 2008-2009 turmoil           of which: Residential       67.900          3,7         -0,4          -27,9            0,4        NA
period and has booked a +1.6% increase in turnover                  Offices
                                                                    Commercial
                                                                                      26.450
                                                                                      19.100
                                                                                                      2,1
                                                                                                      3,2
                                                                                                                   0,0
                                                                                                                  -2,6
                                                                                                                                 -6,8
                                                                                                                                  0,0
                                                                                                                                                 1,0
                                                                                                                                                 2,2
                                                                                                                                                            NA
                                                                                                                                                            NA
volumes in 2010, driven by commercial and                 Germany                    166.600          4,8         -0,5           -9,6            2,4        3,4
                                                          of which: Residential       96.900          5,5         -0,4          -13,6            1,5        NA
residential, versus a 0.7% average Euro area. This is               Offices           26.500          3,5         -1,3           -1,3            2,3        NA

also due to the high saving rate of Italian families      UK
                                                                    Commercial        29.600
                                                                                     112.300
                                                                                                      4,0
                                                                                                      2,7
                                                                                                                   1,1
                                                                                                                  -2,0
                                                                                                                                 -0,4
                                                                                                                                -11,3
                                                                                                                                                 4,6
                                                                                                                                                 1,4
                                                                                                                                                            NA
                                                                                                                                                            1,5
and the common investment of Italians in the              of which: Residential
                                                                    Offices
                                                                                      45.500
                                                                                      27.000
                                                                                                      3,6
                                                                                                      2,1
                                                                                                                  -0,8
                                                                                                                  -3,5
                                                                                                                                -18,4
                                                                                                                                 -6,8
                                                                                                                                                 0,7
                                                                                                                                                 4,2
                                                                                                                                                            NA
                                                                                                                                                            NA
housing market (ca. 80% of Italians live in a                       Commercial        28.000          2,7         -2,0          -11,3            1,4        NA
                                                          Spain                       74.700          7,3         -7,9          -17,6            -5,0      -1,6
property house).                                          of which: Residential       36.600          7,7        -12,9          -24,7            -5,7       NA
                                                                    Offices           12.500          4,3          1,4           -9,9            -5,7       NA
In terms of real estate price trend, 2011 is expected     Avg EU 5
                                                                    Commercial        13.200
                                                                                     600.250
                                                                                                      7,3
                                                                                                      4,4
                                                                                                                  -7,9
                                                                                                                  -2,6
                                                                                                                                -17,6
                                                                                                                                -13,3
                                                                                                                                                 -5,0
                                                                                                                                                 0,7
                                                                                                                                                            NA
                                                                                                                                                            1,2
to start to grow again after the downwards results        of which: Residential      338.100          5,0         -3,1          -18,0            0,4        NA
                                                                    Offices           99.450          3,1         -1,0           -5,8            1,1        NA
achieved in 2009 and 2010, which resulted, in any                   Commercial        97.700          3,6          0,2           -1,2            1,9        NA

case, lower compared to other European Countries.         Source: European Outlook 2011 - Scenari Immobiliari

                                                          Table 3: Real Estate price change
     Key Message: Despite the slow economic growth,
                                                                                               % Change YoY
     in Italy the lending business to individuals and      Count ry                      2009       2010F          2011F
     corporates grow more than other European             Italy        Residential          -6,5          -2,5           1,2
     countries and the real estate market volumes and                  Offices
                                                                       Commercial
                                                                                            -2,5
                                                                                             0,5
                                                                                                          -1,4
                                                                                                           1,0
                                                                                                                         0,3
                                                                                                                         1,7
     prices are more stable, due to the saving rate and   France       Residential          -9,5           1,2           2,0
                                                                       Offices              -3,1          -1,4           0,0
     the common investment of Italians in the real                     Commercial           -5,2          -2,3           0,5

     estate market                                        Germany Residential
                                                                       Offices
                                                                                            -5,0
                                                                                            -7,3
                                                                                                           1,5
                                                                                                          -2,1
                                                                                                                         4,0
                                                                                                                         1,5
                                                                       Commercial           -0,2           0,3           1,2
                                                          UK           Residential        -25,0           -3,2           -1,0
                                                                       Offices            -10,5           -2,4            0,7
1.     Source: Eurostat data                                           Commercial          -5,6           -4,7           -2,1
2.     Source: ABI Monthly Outlook – February 2011        Spain        Residential        -20,3        -10,6             -2,5
                                                                       Offices            -15,2         -5,6             -1,7
                                                                       Commercial           0,5          1,0              1,7
                                                          Source: European Outlook 2011 - Scenari Immobiliari

                                                                                                                                                   April 2011
PwC                                                                                                                                                         2
2                       The Italian banking system in a
                        nutshell

The industry landscape                                                          Table 4: Customer loans by cluster

The Italian banking system includes about 500                                   Clusters       Asset Range       #        % of total       Credit Institutions included
credit institutions3. These institutions are mainly                                              (bn €)    Institutions   custom er
                                                                                                                            loans
represented by banking institutions (groups or
individual banks) (ca. 91%) and the remaining part                              Top            Above 600        2           48%               Unicredit and Intesa SP

by specialized credit institutions (financial                                                                                          MPS, Banco Popolare, Ubi Banca, BNL
                                                                                Large            60-600         5            23%
intermediaries – ex art 107) active mainly in the                                                                                               and Mediobanca

leasing, consumer credit and factoring business.                                Medium            15-60         13           16%
                                                                                                                                       BPER, Dexia, BPM, Cariparma, Carige,
                                                                                                                                        BP Vicenza, Credem, DB, CreVal, BP
                                                                                                                                       Sondrio, Veneto B., B Marche, ICCREA
All credit institutions can be broken down in the                                                                                      B. Sella, UGF, Findomestic, Fideuram,
                                                                                Small           Below 15        79           7%
following 5 clusters4:                                                                                                                 B. Etruria, Mediolanum, Santander, etc
                                                                                Mutual &
                                                                                                Below 15      ca 400         6%          BCC, Casse Rurali, Casse Raiffeisen
     • Top – which include the fist 2 banking groups                            saving banks

       with extensive international activities                                 Source: PwC estimate based on 2009 Fast ABI data
     • Large – which include the subsequent 5 credit
       institutions with mainly domestic operations and
       a national coverage                                                     The Italian assets value
     • Medium – which include the subsequent 13                                According to Bank of Italy /ABI data, at the end of
       credit institutions having a multiregional                              20105 loans provided by domestic credit institutions
       presence                                                                to residential customers equal to €1,846 bn, of
     • Small – which include the subsequent 79 credit                          which €493 bn provided by the banking institutions
       institutions active on a regional / local basis, and                    to families (mainly in form of first lien mortgages)
     • Mutual and saving banks: about 400 institutions,                        and €968 bn to non financial institutions (mainly
       most in the form of cooperative                                         corporate and, the remaining part, public entities).

Despite its fragmentation, the industry is pretty                              Most of customer loans are represented by loans and
much concentrated, being 48% of the customer                                   advances, while the financing through leasing
loans provided by the 2 major groups, 71% by the 7                             counts for ca. 6.3% of the total customer loans,
major groups and 87% by the first 20 groups.                                   consumer credit for ca. 5.1% and the factoring
                                                                               business for ca 0.8%6.

     Key Message: Investing in the assets of the first 7                          Key Message: Out of €1,846 bn loans, €493 bn
     Italian credit institutions gives access to almost                           are provided by the banking institutions to
     two third of the existing lending business and                               families, mainly in the form of first lien mortgage
     provides to a good geografical diversification




3.     PwC estimate based on 2009 Fast ABI data.
4.     Clusters have been identified according to the credit institutions ranking by 2009 total assets as per Fast ABI data
5.     PwC estimate based on ABI Monthly Outlook – March 2011 (Summary) and Bank of Italy data (Bollettino Statistico)
6.     The breakdown has been estimated by PwC based on Bank of Italy data (Bollettino Statistico)



                                                                                                                                                            April 2011
PwC                                                                                                                                                                  3
3                               Do banks need to urgently sell NPLs?

A worsening in the asset quality                                                           Any pressure for assets sale?
With no surprise the asset quality in the last 3 years                                     Despite the raise of the NPLs stock provided by the
has worsen. Focusing on the 3 clusters7 Top, Large                                         worsening in asset quality and the structural lengthy
and Medium above mentioned, the net NPLs ratio                                             legal process in the recovery management,
(NPLs defined as “sofferenze” as per Bank of Italy                                         compared to other European markets, Italian banks
criteria over customer loans) raised from 1.4%                                             have not disposed of significant volumes of assets
(2008) to 2.2% (June 2010). In this context, also                                          over the last three years. Though, in Q1 2011 the
the Delinquent ratio moved up to 3.8%, with                                                market has shown clear signs of awakening.
Delinquent defined as all loans in arrears classified,
                                                                                           As usual, transactions will be driven by capital relief
according to Bank of Italy, in “esposizioni scadute
                                                                                           needs and by the capacity of the credit institutions’
e/o sconfinanti”, in “partite incagliate” and as
                                                                                           balance sheet to absorb losses.
“esposizioni ristrutturate”.
                                                                                           With respect to capital needs, the new Basel III
Chart 1: Top, Large and Medium clusters – NPLs and                                         framework will add further tensions to capital
Delinquent ratios (net of provisioning)                                                    management officers who have already a hard job in
                                                                                           managing the asset growth. According to the Bank of
                                               3,7%                                3,8%    Italy estimate, the impact of the new reform will be
 1,8%                                                                                      equal to €40 bn as additional capital required. The
                                                                                   2,2%
                                                                                           estimate was run on June 2010 figures of the 22
                                               1,9%
     1,4%                                                                                  Italian banks9 participating to the Quantitative
 2008                                          2009                               1H2010
                           NPLs ratio                       Delinquent ratio               Impact Study of Basel III conducted by the Basel
Source: PwC analysis on June 30, 2010 FAST ABI data                                        Committee and the CEBS.
For the same panel of banks, the consequence of the
                                                                                             Key Message: There is not a urgency in reducing
worsening in the asset quality has been an increase
                                                                                             NPLs, but the structural lengthy in the legal
of the banking provisioning (Cost of Risk 8), eroding
                                                                                             recovery process, the growth in the lending
banking profitability as shown in Chart 2.
                                                                                             business, Basel III requirements and the increase
                                                                                             in revenues will inevitably drive to asset sales
Chart 2: Top, Large and Medium clusters – Interest Margin
and Cost of Risk trend (in bps)
                                                                                           On the other hand, in terms of revenues and the
            350
                     299                                                                   capacity to absorb losses, the Italian banking system
            300                     283
                                                                                           has shown signs of improvement in the last years:
            250
            200
                                                                                           banks included in the Top, Large and Medium
                                                      149
                                                                       129                 clusters7 increase revenues of a CAGR of 12% from
     bps




            150                           108
            100            64                               51
                                                                                           2006 to 2009, reaching in Dec 2009 €74.4 bn and in
                                                                             45
             50                                                                            June 2010 €35.7 bn. Pressure though remain given
              -
                      2008              2009          1H2009          1H2010
                                                                                           the financial market dynamics (funding
                  Interest Margin on Customer Loans                Cost of risk
                                                                                           shortage/cost), macroeconomic conditions and
                                                                                           regulatory costs (protection of investors/clients,
Source: PwC analysis on June 30,2010 FAST ABI data
                                                                                           transparency and tariffs).

7.          With the exception of Dexia given its peculiar business and ICCREA given the unavailability of the data
8.          With Cost of Risk calculated as the ratio between the provisioning on the NPLs and the total customer loans (gross of provisioning)
9.          The 22 banks count for a 75% of the total assets of the Italian banking system


                                                                                                                                                  April 2011
PwC                                                                                                                                                        4
4                        How big is the Italian NPL market?
NPLs market size                                                                                  Peer analysis
The gross NPLs stock significantly increased in                                                   Chart 4 shows the results of a peer analysis in terms
the period 2008 – 2010 (CAGR at 36.3%)                                                            of NPLs ratio and coverage ratio among the credit
reaching €78 bn in December 2010. ABI outlook                                                     institutions included in the Top, Large and Medium
suggests a further increase in 2011 and a slight                                                  clusters7, while the size of the bubbles represent the
decrease for 2012 10.                                                                             size of gross NPLs value.
The vivid recent grow is even more evident in                                                     The peer analysis illustrate the wide range existing
comparison to the last year figures at the                                                        among different credit institutions in terms of
European level: in 2010 the Italian NPLs stock                                                    coverage ratio, spanning from 35.4% to 66.2%. All
grew by 32% while the UK, Spanish and German                                                      remaining conditions equal, Mediobanca, Intesa San
market grew, respectively, at a rate of 14%, 11%                                                  Paolo (ISP) and Deutsche Bank Italy (DB Italy) are
and 7%.                                                                                           better positioned for a sale.
In terms of the ratio between the NPLs and the
customer loans (NPLs ratio – net of                                                               The overall positioning into the below chart, could
provisioning), this has increased significantly in                                                be considered just indicative of the best potential
the last years reaching 2.5% in 2010. In the next 2                                               strategic options of the bank for its assets (i.e. sell,
years this ratio is expected to decrease given the                                                outsource, hold), due to the need for a portfolio
combined effect of the deceleration of NPLs                                                       stratification analysis which might highlight
growth and the increase in customer loans.                                                        different coverage ratios among asset classes and
In terms of coverage ratio (provisioning over                                                     hence different strategies to follow.
gross NPLs value), at the end of 2010, the value
was equal to 39.7%10.                                                                             Chart 4: Top, Large and Medium clusters – June 30, 2010
                                                                                                  NPLs peers analysis11
Chart 3: Trend of gross NPLs stock and net NPLs ratio                                            4,0%
                                                                                                                                                       Weighted Avg: 58.9%
 bn €                                                                                                    B. MARCHE
100                                                                             4%               3,5%
                                                                                                                                             MPS
 90    3.0%                                                                                                          VB
              2,8%                                                              3%               3,0%                                              UGC
 80                                                      2,5%    86                                                         BP
                                                                        84
                                                                2,4%                                                                                   BNL
 70                                                      78            2,3%     3%               2,5%
                                                                                     NPL ratio




                                                  2,0%                                                                                        BPER           Weighted Avg: 2,0%
 60                  1,8% 1,7%                                                  2%               2,0%             BPVi CARIGE UBI
                                                   59
 50            54                                                                                                                                  CREVAL
         51                                1,3%                                                                                                                 ISP
                             47     47                                          2%               1,5%
 40                   45
                                           42                                                                                              CARIPARMA DB Italy
 30                                                                                                                                BPM
                                    1,1%                                        1%               1,0%
 20                                                                                                                                                    CREDEM
                                                                                1%                                                  P.SONDRIO
  10                                                                                             0,5%
                                                                                                                                                             MEDIOBANCA
   0                                                                            0%
        2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 E 2012
                                                                                             0,0%
                                                        E                                        35%           40%      45%      50%   55%     60%           65%      70%    75%
Source: PwC analysis on Bank of Italy / ABI data as per ABI Monthly Outlook –                                                     Coverage ratio
February 2011
                                                                                                 Source: PwC analysis on June 30, 2010 FAST ABI data


10.    Figures and forecast provided by the Bank of Italy / ABI in the ABI – Monthly Outlook – February 2011
11.    Definitions: B. MARCHE = Gruppo Bancario Banca delle Marche, BPM = Gruppo Bipiemme, BP = Gruppo Banco Popolare, BPER = Gruppo Banca
       Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna, BNL = Gruppo Bancario Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, BPVi = Gruppo Bancario Banca Popolare di Vicenza, CARIGE
       = Gruppo Carige, CARIPARMA = Gruppo Bancario Cariparma Friuladria, CREDEM = Gruppo Credito Emiliano, CREVAL = Gruppo Credito
       Valtellinese, DB Italy = Gruppo Deutsche Bank, ISP = Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo, MEDIOBANCA = Gruppo Bancario Mediobanca, MPS =
       Gruppo Monte Paschi di Siena, P.SONDRIO = Gruppo Banca Popolare di Sondrio, UBI = Gruppo Unione di Banche Italiane, UGC = Gruppo
       Unicredit, VB = Gruppo Bancario Veneto Banca

                                                                                                                                                                   April 2011
PwC                                                                                                                                                                         5
5                The NPLs management

The recovery management                                    Who service the NPLs?
The collection of a NPL in Italy is driven not only by
the ability of the servicer or the quality of the claim,    The servicing of NPLs in Italy is carried out by
but also by external factors, among which the legal         three kind of players:
framework for mortgage loans plays a relevant role.         •      Internal Recovery Departments – an internal
In comparison to other jurisdictions, the Italian                  department within the credit institution who
judicial system is fragmented and legal enforcement                manage the NPLs
procedures are complex and lengthy, judicial                •      Captive Special Servicers – Specialized product
competence for solving a dispute is split between                  companies within banking groups for
several different courts and will depend on the                    recovering NPLs and for acting as the group
property's geographical location and the type of                   service organization for their management (ex.
legal action being undertaken.                                     Unicredit Credit Management Bank, Gestione
                                                                   Crediti Banca MPS, etc)
It takes an average of five to seven years for a
foreclosure procedure on a real estate property in          •      Non Captive Special Servicers – Independent
Italian courts to be completed, from the time                      operators servicing both domestic banks or
lawyers are instructed to the time an auction date is              international investors (Italfondiario, Pirelli RE
set for the sale of the property. Occasionally                     Credit Servicing, etc)
procedures last more than 10 years whereas some
                                                            A list of the main Italian NPLs Special Servicers
recent foreclosure procedures, incepted after the
                                                            follows:
introduction of some changes to the regulation,
reached the sale process in less than 3 years. The
speed of the process varies from court to court, due        Table 5: NPLs Special Servicer main players
to differences in staffing, workload, the extent of
                                                            Company                     AUM     AUM reference               # of     Servicer Evaluat ion
computerised records available, and work ethic.                                       (GBV mln) dat e & source            employ ees    Rat ing (where
                                                                                                                                      publicly available)
                                                            CA PT IV E SPECIA L SERV ICERS (wit h ev en t u a l l y t h ir d pa r t y bu sin ess)
As a consequence of the length of the recovery legal        Un icr edit -Cr edit                    3 0 Nov 2 0 0 9                        S&P - ST RONG
                                                                                       3 2 ,9 9 6                            738
process, often extrajudicial agreements could be the        Ma n a g em en t Ba n k
                                                            Gest ion e Cr edit i
                                                                                                     S&P Repor t
                                                                                                     3 1 Ma r 2 0 1 0
                                                                                                                                             Ma y 2 0 1 0
                                                                                                                                      S&P - A BOV E A V ERA GE
best viable route even in case of a secured asset and       Ba n ca MPS
                                                                                       1 2 ,0 0 0
                                                                                                      S&P Repor t
                                                                                                                             292
                                                                                                                                             Ju l 2 0 1 0
                                                            SGC Ba n co                              3 1 Dec 2 0 0 9
the choice on the recovery strategy to follow can           Popola r e
                                                                                        3 ,1 1 6
                                                                                                    A n n u a l Repor t
                                                                                                                             n .a .                 n .a .


have a strong impact on the servicer performance.           BCC Gest ion e
                                                            Cr edit i
                                                                                          n .a             n .a .             15                    n .a .

                                                            NON CA PT IV E SPECIA L SERV ICERS
                                                                                                     3 1 Dec 2 0 0 9                       S&P - ST RONG
                                                            It a lfon dia r io         2 8 ,6 8 0                            427
                                                                                                    A n n u a l Repor t                      A u g 2 01 0
 Key Message: Given the complexity of the                   Pir elli RE Cr edit                      3 0 Ju n 2 0 0 9                      S&P - ST RONG
                                                                                        8 ,6 4 9                             27 6
 recovery process, a change in the Servicer might           Ser v icin g
                                                            A r ch on Gr ou p
                                                                                                       S&P Repor t
                                                                                                     3 1 Ma r 2 0 1 0
                                                                                                                                             A pr 2 0 1 0
                                                                                                                                           S&P - ST RONG
 lead to improve recovery performances                      It a lia
                                                                                        2 ,2 3 6
                                                                                                      S&P Repor t
                                                                                                                             143
                                                                                                                                             Sep 2 0 1 0
                                                                                                     3 0 A pr 2 0 1 0                   Fit ch - CSS2 & RSS2
                                                            Gu ber                      1 ,7 0 0                             1 00
                                                                                                      S&P Repor t                             Nov 2 0 1 0
                                                                                                     3 1 Dec 2 0 0 9                  S&P - A BOV E A V ERA GE
                                                            FBS                         1 ,4 8 5                             1 09
                                                                                                      Repor t S&P                            Ju n 2 0 1 0

                                                            Ju pit er Fin a n ce         n .a .            n .a .             21                    n .a .

                                                                                                      3 1 Dec 2 0 0 9
                                                            T osca n a Fin a n za       1 ,0 3 3                             n .a .                 n .a .
                                                                                                    A n n u a l Repor t

                                                           Source: PwC analysis based on Annual Reports and Servicer Evaluation Rating report
                                                           available




                                                                                                                                               April 2011
PwC                                                                                                                                                     6
6                    Past NPLs transactions and investors
                     interest

NPLs deals
The introduction of the securitisation law in 1999                                  In 2009 and 2010, the financial crisis induced
(Law 130/99) allowed for the development of a                                       different investors to abandon the NPLs market,
florish market for NPL transactions with the                                        while other investors, even if virtually active,
entrance of international investors.                                                remained silent with the consequence of no market
In the 2005-2007 period, the strong competition on                                  activity.
large size transactions and the low expected returns                                In 2011, we observe a renewed interest toward the
(function of the low interest rates and market                                      NPLs market and we envisage a re-opening of the
liquidity) allowed for a sensitive NPLs price                                       market.
increase.
In 2008, the increase of the interest rates, the                                          Key Message: The NPLs market is a mature
liquidity crisis and the insufficient transparency of                                     market with a friendly legal framework
some sale processes, determined a price gap                                               introduced in 1999 by the securitisation law
between sellers and potential buyers with no
significant transactions.



        Table 6: Main NPLs public transactions closed from 2005

             Year                    Seller                     GBV        Asset t y pe                              Buy er
                                                              (€mln)

        201 0            Non-Performing Loans Spa                  39       Secured         Sagittaria Finance Srl
        201 0            Cross Factor Spa                           4 Consumer loans Agathos Finance Srl
        2009             Cross Factor Spa                           7    Consumer loans Agathos Finance Srl
        2008             Banca Pop. Cento                        1 01      Mix ed S / U     NPLs Spa
        2007             Antonv eneta                          2,61 0      Mix ed S / U     Pirelli Re e GE
        2007             Credito Valtellinese                    1 40          NA           Finanziaria San Giacomo (CreVal)
        2006             Unicredit                             2,300        Secured         Pirelli Re
        2007             BNL - BNPP                            1 ,500       Secured         Pirelli Re
        2006             Antonv eneta                            955       Mix ed S / U     GE e ABN Amro
        2006             BPVN                                    1 95       Secured         Pirelli RE
        2006             Unicredit                             1 ,7 00    Mix ed S / U      GE, ABN Amro e Tecnocasa
        2006             BPI                                     925      Mix ed S / U      May a Fin and Teseo Fin (ABN Amro & WestLB)
        2006             Banca Pop. Etruria                      1 32      Mix ed S / U     Deutsche Bank
        2005             Monte Paschi                            1 90      Mix ed S / U     Lehman Fund
        2005             Centrobanca                             1 07       Secured         Tersicore Finance Srl - WestLB
        2005             San Paolo                               27 0       Secured         ABN Amro
        2005             BNL - BNPP                              290        Secured         Goldman Sachs
        2005             BNL e FIM                               400       Mix ed S / U     Cairoli Finance (Intesa SP)
        2005             Banca Intesa                          9,067       Mix ed S / U     Merrill Ly nch e Fortress
        2005             BNL - BNPP                              900       Mix ed S / U     Pirelli RE e Morgan Stanley
        S= Secured Mortgage Loans; U=Unsecured Loans
        Source: PwC summary on public available information



                                                                                                                                          April 2011
PwC                                                                                                                                                7
7                                           Closing remarks

 • With €78 bn of NPLs in the books of the                                                                                                                                   • Given the concentration of the Italian
   Italian banks, Italy is a sizable market                                                                                                                                    industry, acquiring NPLs from the first 7
                                                                                                                                                                               Italian credit institutions give access to a
 • In terms of asset quality, the Italian
                                                                                                                                                                               good percentage of the NPLs market and
   lending business is characterized by a
                                                                                                                                                                               to a good geographical diversification
   good percentage of secured lending. The
   high saving rate of Italian families and                                                                                                                                  • Despite Italian banks seem not to be in a
   the high propensity for a purchase of a                                                                                                                                     rush of selling their NPLs, we expect that
   property house (ca. 80%), drive Italian                                                                                                                                     the increasing stock of NPLs (due in part
   banks to be exposed for a relevant part of                                                                                                                                  to the structural lengthy in the legal
   their books to families (€493 bn in 2010),                                                                                                                                  recovery process), the growth in the
   mainly acquiring a first lien mortgage.                                                                                                                                     lending business, Basel III additional
 • The Italian real estate market has been                                                                                                                                     capital requirements and, finally, the
   less affected than the market of other                                                                                                                                      increase in revenues will drive them to
   European countries during the 2008-2009                                                                                                                                     NPLs sale transactions starting from 2011
   turmoil period, both in terms of turnover                                                                                                                                 • The legal framework for NPLs
   volumes and in terms of price change,                                                                                                                                       transactions is pretty friendly and based
   confirming the overall stability of the                                                                                                                                     on a robust law introduced in 1999 (the
   market                                                                                                                                                                      securitisation law)




    PL Exit-Strategies investors "Real estate" Workout "innovative Solution" partnership Portfolio "Intensive Care" "Risk Management" "Risk partecipating" Successful "distressed Asset" Future Kowollik Kowo Servicing Hedgefund Investement NPLfond icd cashflow cashflowsync conactor Software AMSync Orgaplan Mquadra UEN lucidi
    "intensive Care" Pfandbriefbank "Non Performing Loans" Portfolio Websolution "Bad Bank" SIP Eurohypo UCCMB italfondiario DocRating Troublshooting "credits en détresse" "credito fallito" Recupero Credito Bad Bancos SIP ( Sistema integrado de protección ) y Bad Assets o algunos principios de táctica y estrategias de Exit
    asset-management "bad bank" REO Real Estate Owned Rettungserwerb Problemkredit REO-Management budgeting caja cashflow "distressed asset" "due diligence" eurohypo icd "incentive care" "non performing loans" npl Conet-services datawarehouse pfandbriefbank portfolio " exit - strategie" portfolio-management property
    "realestate immobilie" servicing sip workout conact orgaplan UEN Kowollik lucidi QINET "UnionEstatesNetwork" Conactor Cashflow CashflowSync AMSync Property Securization Cartolarizzazione Verbriefung CMBS RMBS ABS PDV Financial services Summit DOCRating Portfolio Portfolio-Management Risk-Mangement BAFIN
    SOFFIN casa immueble Recupero Credito Wohnungsteigentum condominio WEG Teilungserklärung RE-lifecycle Hudson Advisors Servicing Advisors Immofori FMP-Forderungsmanagement Assetgate Altor-Group Aste Zwangserwaltung Insolvenz Distress debts REO REO-Notes Special Servicing main Servicing Primer Servicing
    Trustee fiducario Treuhand Intesa Unicredit Immobilien Ubibanca ByYou Jerome Chapuis First Atlantic Ricucci EH-Estate Fortress condominio amministrazione immobiliare condominiale integrazione sincronizzazione ruoli immobiliare millesimo conto economico Fondo immobiliare IAS/IFRS commercialista KMPG Deloitte revisione
    MPS Unicredit SGR Banca d`Italia Legge 106 cartoliarizzazione Reo



    Immobilie imueble Casa Recupero Credito Bad Bank SIP Sistema integrada protection Caja workout Credito fallido credits en détresse Troubelshooting incentive care ICD Pfandbriefbank Eurohypo Portfolio ; Exit - Strategia Immobilienfond Software Orgaplan CONact Unicredit CashflowSync RE-lifecycle Kowollik deuda morosa UEN
    Union Estates Network lucidi vendittelli UCCMB italfondiario Due Diligence Portal-Software Web-Solutions Property Property Management Amministrazione immobiliare Condominio ciclo di vita del Immobile fundos immobiliarios




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                April 2011
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      8
Portfolio Advisory Group
PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisory SpA

Via Monte Rosa, 91
20 149 Milano
Tel. 02 80646.1




This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act
upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is
given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers
Advisory SpA, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or
anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.

© 2011 PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisory SpA. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisory SpA which is a
member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity.

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Italian npl-market - 2011

  • 1. www.pwc.com/it The Italian NPL market Why investing in Italy? April 2011
  • 2. Foreword & Content Foreword Content Given the recent increase in activity on loan portfolios in a number of key banking jurisdictions across Europe, including Italy, 1. The macroeconomic and real and the complexity of the Italian NPL market, estate market environment we thought useful sharing the main features of the current market and the reasons on why 2. The Italian banking system in a this market might be interesting from an investor perspective. nutshell As per our extensive experience in advising 3. Do banks need to urgently sell both buyers and sellers in the main NPL deals arranged in Italy we would be happy to NPLs? provide you with further insights on such market and on how turning your investment 4. How big is the Italian NPLs goals into a successful transaction. market? 5. The NPLs management Kind Regards 6. Past NPLs transactions and investors interest Fedele Pascuzzi fedele.pascuzzi@it.pwc.com 7. Closing remarks Antonella Pagano antonella.pagano@it.pwc.com Laura Gasparini laura.gasparini@it.pwc.com April 2011 PwC 1
  • 3. 1 The macroeconomic and real estate market environment A slow moving economy but with a Table 1: GDP data liquid Real Estate market GDP - percentage change on prev ious y ear After a negative trend in 2009, Italian GDP 2009A 2010F 2011F 2012F recorded a positive result (+1.3%) and is expected to Italy -5,2% 1,3% 1,1% 1,4% grow over the next couple of years, even if at a slow France -2 ,6% 1 ,6% 1 ,6% 1 ,8% Germ any -4 ,7 % 3 ,6% 2 ,2 % 2 ,0% pace. UK -4 ,9% 1 ,3 % 2 ,2 % 2 ,5% Spain -3 ,7 % -0,1 % 0,7 % 1 ,7 % Unemployment rate in 2010 stands at 8.5%, below Euro Area (1 6 countries) -4 ,1 % 1 ,7 % 1 ,5% 1 ,8% Euro area average (10.6%) and is expected to Source: Eurostat remain stable 1 . Table 2: Real Estate turnover In 2010 the amount of loans to Italian non financial institutions increased by 1.6%, versus an average of 2010F % Change YoY 0.4% of the Euro area countries, thus confirming the Count ry Volumes 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F positive attitude towards the Italian system 2. Italy of which: Residential 111.500 91.200 4,9 5,0 -3,6 -4,3 -10,0 -10,1 1,6 1,9 2,7 NA Offices 7.000 7,1 1,3 -6,6 -1,4 NA Real estate market has been more stable than other Commercial 7.800 4,1 2,6 -2,6 2,6 NA France 135.150 3,0 -1,2 -18,7 0,8 2,5 European countries during the 2008-2009 turmoil of which: Residential 67.900 3,7 -0,4 -27,9 0,4 NA period and has booked a +1.6% increase in turnover Offices Commercial 26.450 19.100 2,1 3,2 0,0 -2,6 -6,8 0,0 1,0 2,2 NA NA volumes in 2010, driven by commercial and Germany 166.600 4,8 -0,5 -9,6 2,4 3,4 of which: Residential 96.900 5,5 -0,4 -13,6 1,5 NA residential, versus a 0.7% average Euro area. This is Offices 26.500 3,5 -1,3 -1,3 2,3 NA also due to the high saving rate of Italian families UK Commercial 29.600 112.300 4,0 2,7 1,1 -2,0 -0,4 -11,3 4,6 1,4 NA 1,5 and the common investment of Italians in the of which: Residential Offices 45.500 27.000 3,6 2,1 -0,8 -3,5 -18,4 -6,8 0,7 4,2 NA NA housing market (ca. 80% of Italians live in a Commercial 28.000 2,7 -2,0 -11,3 1,4 NA Spain 74.700 7,3 -7,9 -17,6 -5,0 -1,6 property house). of which: Residential 36.600 7,7 -12,9 -24,7 -5,7 NA Offices 12.500 4,3 1,4 -9,9 -5,7 NA In terms of real estate price trend, 2011 is expected Avg EU 5 Commercial 13.200 600.250 7,3 4,4 -7,9 -2,6 -17,6 -13,3 -5,0 0,7 NA 1,2 to start to grow again after the downwards results of which: Residential 338.100 5,0 -3,1 -18,0 0,4 NA Offices 99.450 3,1 -1,0 -5,8 1,1 NA achieved in 2009 and 2010, which resulted, in any Commercial 97.700 3,6 0,2 -1,2 1,9 NA case, lower compared to other European Countries. Source: European Outlook 2011 - Scenari Immobiliari Table 3: Real Estate price change Key Message: Despite the slow economic growth, % Change YoY in Italy the lending business to individuals and Count ry 2009 2010F 2011F corporates grow more than other European Italy Residential -6,5 -2,5 1,2 countries and the real estate market volumes and Offices Commercial -2,5 0,5 -1,4 1,0 0,3 1,7 prices are more stable, due to the saving rate and France Residential -9,5 1,2 2,0 Offices -3,1 -1,4 0,0 the common investment of Italians in the real Commercial -5,2 -2,3 0,5 estate market Germany Residential Offices -5,0 -7,3 1,5 -2,1 4,0 1,5 Commercial -0,2 0,3 1,2 UK Residential -25,0 -3,2 -1,0 Offices -10,5 -2,4 0,7 1. Source: Eurostat data Commercial -5,6 -4,7 -2,1 2. Source: ABI Monthly Outlook – February 2011 Spain Residential -20,3 -10,6 -2,5 Offices -15,2 -5,6 -1,7 Commercial 0,5 1,0 1,7 Source: European Outlook 2011 - Scenari Immobiliari April 2011 PwC 2
  • 4. 2 The Italian banking system in a nutshell The industry landscape Table 4: Customer loans by cluster The Italian banking system includes about 500 Clusters Asset Range # % of total Credit Institutions included credit institutions3. These institutions are mainly (bn €) Institutions custom er loans represented by banking institutions (groups or individual banks) (ca. 91%) and the remaining part Top Above 600 2 48% Unicredit and Intesa SP by specialized credit institutions (financial MPS, Banco Popolare, Ubi Banca, BNL Large 60-600 5 23% intermediaries – ex art 107) active mainly in the and Mediobanca leasing, consumer credit and factoring business. Medium 15-60 13 16% BPER, Dexia, BPM, Cariparma, Carige, BP Vicenza, Credem, DB, CreVal, BP Sondrio, Veneto B., B Marche, ICCREA All credit institutions can be broken down in the B. Sella, UGF, Findomestic, Fideuram, Small Below 15 79 7% following 5 clusters4: B. Etruria, Mediolanum, Santander, etc Mutual & Below 15 ca 400 6% BCC, Casse Rurali, Casse Raiffeisen • Top – which include the fist 2 banking groups saving banks with extensive international activities Source: PwC estimate based on 2009 Fast ABI data • Large – which include the subsequent 5 credit institutions with mainly domestic operations and a national coverage The Italian assets value • Medium – which include the subsequent 13 According to Bank of Italy /ABI data, at the end of credit institutions having a multiregional 20105 loans provided by domestic credit institutions presence to residential customers equal to €1,846 bn, of • Small – which include the subsequent 79 credit which €493 bn provided by the banking institutions institutions active on a regional / local basis, and to families (mainly in form of first lien mortgages) • Mutual and saving banks: about 400 institutions, and €968 bn to non financial institutions (mainly most in the form of cooperative corporate and, the remaining part, public entities). Despite its fragmentation, the industry is pretty Most of customer loans are represented by loans and much concentrated, being 48% of the customer advances, while the financing through leasing loans provided by the 2 major groups, 71% by the 7 counts for ca. 6.3% of the total customer loans, major groups and 87% by the first 20 groups. consumer credit for ca. 5.1% and the factoring business for ca 0.8%6. Key Message: Investing in the assets of the first 7 Key Message: Out of €1,846 bn loans, €493 bn Italian credit institutions gives access to almost are provided by the banking institutions to two third of the existing lending business and families, mainly in the form of first lien mortgage provides to a good geografical diversification 3. PwC estimate based on 2009 Fast ABI data. 4. Clusters have been identified according to the credit institutions ranking by 2009 total assets as per Fast ABI data 5. PwC estimate based on ABI Monthly Outlook – March 2011 (Summary) and Bank of Italy data (Bollettino Statistico) 6. The breakdown has been estimated by PwC based on Bank of Italy data (Bollettino Statistico) April 2011 PwC 3
  • 5. 3 Do banks need to urgently sell NPLs? A worsening in the asset quality Any pressure for assets sale? With no surprise the asset quality in the last 3 years Despite the raise of the NPLs stock provided by the has worsen. Focusing on the 3 clusters7 Top, Large worsening in asset quality and the structural lengthy and Medium above mentioned, the net NPLs ratio legal process in the recovery management, (NPLs defined as “sofferenze” as per Bank of Italy compared to other European markets, Italian banks criteria over customer loans) raised from 1.4% have not disposed of significant volumes of assets (2008) to 2.2% (June 2010). In this context, also over the last three years. Though, in Q1 2011 the the Delinquent ratio moved up to 3.8%, with market has shown clear signs of awakening. Delinquent defined as all loans in arrears classified, As usual, transactions will be driven by capital relief according to Bank of Italy, in “esposizioni scadute needs and by the capacity of the credit institutions’ e/o sconfinanti”, in “partite incagliate” and as balance sheet to absorb losses. “esposizioni ristrutturate”. With respect to capital needs, the new Basel III Chart 1: Top, Large and Medium clusters – NPLs and framework will add further tensions to capital Delinquent ratios (net of provisioning) management officers who have already a hard job in managing the asset growth. According to the Bank of 3,7% 3,8% Italy estimate, the impact of the new reform will be 1,8% equal to €40 bn as additional capital required. The 2,2% estimate was run on June 2010 figures of the 22 1,9% 1,4% Italian banks9 participating to the Quantitative 2008 2009 1H2010 NPLs ratio Delinquent ratio Impact Study of Basel III conducted by the Basel Source: PwC analysis on June 30, 2010 FAST ABI data Committee and the CEBS. For the same panel of banks, the consequence of the Key Message: There is not a urgency in reducing worsening in the asset quality has been an increase NPLs, but the structural lengthy in the legal of the banking provisioning (Cost of Risk 8), eroding recovery process, the growth in the lending banking profitability as shown in Chart 2. business, Basel III requirements and the increase in revenues will inevitably drive to asset sales Chart 2: Top, Large and Medium clusters – Interest Margin and Cost of Risk trend (in bps) On the other hand, in terms of revenues and the 350 299 capacity to absorb losses, the Italian banking system 300 283 has shown signs of improvement in the last years: 250 200 banks included in the Top, Large and Medium 149 129 clusters7 increase revenues of a CAGR of 12% from bps 150 108 100 64 51 2006 to 2009, reaching in Dec 2009 €74.4 bn and in 45 50 June 2010 €35.7 bn. Pressure though remain given - 2008 2009 1H2009 1H2010 the financial market dynamics (funding Interest Margin on Customer Loans Cost of risk shortage/cost), macroeconomic conditions and regulatory costs (protection of investors/clients, Source: PwC analysis on June 30,2010 FAST ABI data transparency and tariffs). 7. With the exception of Dexia given its peculiar business and ICCREA given the unavailability of the data 8. With Cost of Risk calculated as the ratio between the provisioning on the NPLs and the total customer loans (gross of provisioning) 9. The 22 banks count for a 75% of the total assets of the Italian banking system April 2011 PwC 4
  • 6. 4 How big is the Italian NPL market? NPLs market size Peer analysis The gross NPLs stock significantly increased in Chart 4 shows the results of a peer analysis in terms the period 2008 – 2010 (CAGR at 36.3%) of NPLs ratio and coverage ratio among the credit reaching €78 bn in December 2010. ABI outlook institutions included in the Top, Large and Medium suggests a further increase in 2011 and a slight clusters7, while the size of the bubbles represent the decrease for 2012 10. size of gross NPLs value. The vivid recent grow is even more evident in The peer analysis illustrate the wide range existing comparison to the last year figures at the among different credit institutions in terms of European level: in 2010 the Italian NPLs stock coverage ratio, spanning from 35.4% to 66.2%. All grew by 32% while the UK, Spanish and German remaining conditions equal, Mediobanca, Intesa San market grew, respectively, at a rate of 14%, 11% Paolo (ISP) and Deutsche Bank Italy (DB Italy) are and 7%. better positioned for a sale. In terms of the ratio between the NPLs and the customer loans (NPLs ratio – net of The overall positioning into the below chart, could provisioning), this has increased significantly in be considered just indicative of the best potential the last years reaching 2.5% in 2010. In the next 2 strategic options of the bank for its assets (i.e. sell, years this ratio is expected to decrease given the outsource, hold), due to the need for a portfolio combined effect of the deceleration of NPLs stratification analysis which might highlight growth and the increase in customer loans. different coverage ratios among asset classes and In terms of coverage ratio (provisioning over hence different strategies to follow. gross NPLs value), at the end of 2010, the value was equal to 39.7%10. Chart 4: Top, Large and Medium clusters – June 30, 2010 NPLs peers analysis11 Chart 3: Trend of gross NPLs stock and net NPLs ratio 4,0% Weighted Avg: 58.9% bn € B. MARCHE 100 4% 3,5% MPS 90 3.0% VB 2,8% 3% 3,0% UGC 80 2,5% 86 BP 84 2,4% BNL 70 78 2,3% 3% 2,5% NPL ratio 2,0% BPER Weighted Avg: 2,0% 60 1,8% 1,7% 2% 2,0% BPVi CARIGE UBI 59 50 54 CREVAL 51 1,3% ISP 47 47 2% 1,5% 40 45 42 CARIPARMA DB Italy 30 BPM 1,1% 1% 1,0% 20 CREDEM 1% P.SONDRIO 10 0,5% MEDIOBANCA 0 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 E 2012 0,0% E 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% Source: PwC analysis on Bank of Italy / ABI data as per ABI Monthly Outlook – Coverage ratio February 2011 Source: PwC analysis on June 30, 2010 FAST ABI data 10. Figures and forecast provided by the Bank of Italy / ABI in the ABI – Monthly Outlook – February 2011 11. Definitions: B. MARCHE = Gruppo Bancario Banca delle Marche, BPM = Gruppo Bipiemme, BP = Gruppo Banco Popolare, BPER = Gruppo Banca Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna, BNL = Gruppo Bancario Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, BPVi = Gruppo Bancario Banca Popolare di Vicenza, CARIGE = Gruppo Carige, CARIPARMA = Gruppo Bancario Cariparma Friuladria, CREDEM = Gruppo Credito Emiliano, CREVAL = Gruppo Credito Valtellinese, DB Italy = Gruppo Deutsche Bank, ISP = Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo, MEDIOBANCA = Gruppo Bancario Mediobanca, MPS = Gruppo Monte Paschi di Siena, P.SONDRIO = Gruppo Banca Popolare di Sondrio, UBI = Gruppo Unione di Banche Italiane, UGC = Gruppo Unicredit, VB = Gruppo Bancario Veneto Banca April 2011 PwC 5
  • 7. 5 The NPLs management The recovery management Who service the NPLs? The collection of a NPL in Italy is driven not only by the ability of the servicer or the quality of the claim, The servicing of NPLs in Italy is carried out by but also by external factors, among which the legal three kind of players: framework for mortgage loans plays a relevant role. • Internal Recovery Departments – an internal In comparison to other jurisdictions, the Italian department within the credit institution who judicial system is fragmented and legal enforcement manage the NPLs procedures are complex and lengthy, judicial • Captive Special Servicers – Specialized product competence for solving a dispute is split between companies within banking groups for several different courts and will depend on the recovering NPLs and for acting as the group property's geographical location and the type of service organization for their management (ex. legal action being undertaken. Unicredit Credit Management Bank, Gestione Crediti Banca MPS, etc) It takes an average of five to seven years for a foreclosure procedure on a real estate property in • Non Captive Special Servicers – Independent Italian courts to be completed, from the time operators servicing both domestic banks or lawyers are instructed to the time an auction date is international investors (Italfondiario, Pirelli RE set for the sale of the property. Occasionally Credit Servicing, etc) procedures last more than 10 years whereas some A list of the main Italian NPLs Special Servicers recent foreclosure procedures, incepted after the follows: introduction of some changes to the regulation, reached the sale process in less than 3 years. The speed of the process varies from court to court, due Table 5: NPLs Special Servicer main players to differences in staffing, workload, the extent of Company AUM AUM reference # of Servicer Evaluat ion computerised records available, and work ethic. (GBV mln) dat e & source employ ees Rat ing (where publicly available) CA PT IV E SPECIA L SERV ICERS (wit h ev en t u a l l y t h ir d pa r t y bu sin ess) As a consequence of the length of the recovery legal Un icr edit -Cr edit 3 0 Nov 2 0 0 9 S&P - ST RONG 3 2 ,9 9 6 738 process, often extrajudicial agreements could be the Ma n a g em en t Ba n k Gest ion e Cr edit i S&P Repor t 3 1 Ma r 2 0 1 0 Ma y 2 0 1 0 S&P - A BOV E A V ERA GE best viable route even in case of a secured asset and Ba n ca MPS 1 2 ,0 0 0 S&P Repor t 292 Ju l 2 0 1 0 SGC Ba n co 3 1 Dec 2 0 0 9 the choice on the recovery strategy to follow can Popola r e 3 ,1 1 6 A n n u a l Repor t n .a . n .a . have a strong impact on the servicer performance. BCC Gest ion e Cr edit i n .a n .a . 15 n .a . NON CA PT IV E SPECIA L SERV ICERS 3 1 Dec 2 0 0 9 S&P - ST RONG It a lfon dia r io 2 8 ,6 8 0 427 A n n u a l Repor t A u g 2 01 0 Key Message: Given the complexity of the Pir elli RE Cr edit 3 0 Ju n 2 0 0 9 S&P - ST RONG 8 ,6 4 9 27 6 recovery process, a change in the Servicer might Ser v icin g A r ch on Gr ou p S&P Repor t 3 1 Ma r 2 0 1 0 A pr 2 0 1 0 S&P - ST RONG lead to improve recovery performances It a lia 2 ,2 3 6 S&P Repor t 143 Sep 2 0 1 0 3 0 A pr 2 0 1 0 Fit ch - CSS2 & RSS2 Gu ber 1 ,7 0 0 1 00 S&P Repor t Nov 2 0 1 0 3 1 Dec 2 0 0 9 S&P - A BOV E A V ERA GE FBS 1 ,4 8 5 1 09 Repor t S&P Ju n 2 0 1 0 Ju pit er Fin a n ce n .a . n .a . 21 n .a . 3 1 Dec 2 0 0 9 T osca n a Fin a n za 1 ,0 3 3 n .a . n .a . A n n u a l Repor t Source: PwC analysis based on Annual Reports and Servicer Evaluation Rating report available April 2011 PwC 6
  • 8. 6 Past NPLs transactions and investors interest NPLs deals The introduction of the securitisation law in 1999 In 2009 and 2010, the financial crisis induced (Law 130/99) allowed for the development of a different investors to abandon the NPLs market, florish market for NPL transactions with the while other investors, even if virtually active, entrance of international investors. remained silent with the consequence of no market In the 2005-2007 period, the strong competition on activity. large size transactions and the low expected returns In 2011, we observe a renewed interest toward the (function of the low interest rates and market NPLs market and we envisage a re-opening of the liquidity) allowed for a sensitive NPLs price market. increase. In 2008, the increase of the interest rates, the Key Message: The NPLs market is a mature liquidity crisis and the insufficient transparency of market with a friendly legal framework some sale processes, determined a price gap introduced in 1999 by the securitisation law between sellers and potential buyers with no significant transactions. Table 6: Main NPLs public transactions closed from 2005 Year Seller GBV Asset t y pe Buy er (€mln) 201 0 Non-Performing Loans Spa 39 Secured Sagittaria Finance Srl 201 0 Cross Factor Spa 4 Consumer loans Agathos Finance Srl 2009 Cross Factor Spa 7 Consumer loans Agathos Finance Srl 2008 Banca Pop. Cento 1 01 Mix ed S / U NPLs Spa 2007 Antonv eneta 2,61 0 Mix ed S / U Pirelli Re e GE 2007 Credito Valtellinese 1 40 NA Finanziaria San Giacomo (CreVal) 2006 Unicredit 2,300 Secured Pirelli Re 2007 BNL - BNPP 1 ,500 Secured Pirelli Re 2006 Antonv eneta 955 Mix ed S / U GE e ABN Amro 2006 BPVN 1 95 Secured Pirelli RE 2006 Unicredit 1 ,7 00 Mix ed S / U GE, ABN Amro e Tecnocasa 2006 BPI 925 Mix ed S / U May a Fin and Teseo Fin (ABN Amro & WestLB) 2006 Banca Pop. Etruria 1 32 Mix ed S / U Deutsche Bank 2005 Monte Paschi 1 90 Mix ed S / U Lehman Fund 2005 Centrobanca 1 07 Secured Tersicore Finance Srl - WestLB 2005 San Paolo 27 0 Secured ABN Amro 2005 BNL - BNPP 290 Secured Goldman Sachs 2005 BNL e FIM 400 Mix ed S / U Cairoli Finance (Intesa SP) 2005 Banca Intesa 9,067 Mix ed S / U Merrill Ly nch e Fortress 2005 BNL - BNPP 900 Mix ed S / U Pirelli RE e Morgan Stanley S= Secured Mortgage Loans; U=Unsecured Loans Source: PwC summary on public available information April 2011 PwC 7
  • 9. 7 Closing remarks • With €78 bn of NPLs in the books of the • Given the concentration of the Italian Italian banks, Italy is a sizable market industry, acquiring NPLs from the first 7 Italian credit institutions give access to a • In terms of asset quality, the Italian good percentage of the NPLs market and lending business is characterized by a to a good geographical diversification good percentage of secured lending. The high saving rate of Italian families and • Despite Italian banks seem not to be in a the high propensity for a purchase of a rush of selling their NPLs, we expect that property house (ca. 80%), drive Italian the increasing stock of NPLs (due in part banks to be exposed for a relevant part of to the structural lengthy in the legal their books to families (€493 bn in 2010), recovery process), the growth in the mainly acquiring a first lien mortgage. lending business, Basel III additional • The Italian real estate market has been capital requirements and, finally, the less affected than the market of other increase in revenues will drive them to European countries during the 2008-2009 NPLs sale transactions starting from 2011 turmoil period, both in terms of turnover • The legal framework for NPLs volumes and in terms of price change, transactions is pretty friendly and based confirming the overall stability of the on a robust law introduced in 1999 (the market securitisation law) PL Exit-Strategies investors "Real estate" Workout "innovative Solution" partnership Portfolio "Intensive Care" "Risk Management" "Risk partecipating" Successful "distressed Asset" Future Kowollik Kowo Servicing Hedgefund Investement NPLfond icd cashflow cashflowsync conactor Software AMSync Orgaplan Mquadra UEN lucidi "intensive Care" Pfandbriefbank "Non Performing Loans" Portfolio Websolution "Bad Bank" SIP Eurohypo UCCMB italfondiario DocRating Troublshooting "credits en détresse" "credito fallito" Recupero Credito Bad Bancos SIP ( Sistema integrado de protección ) y Bad Assets o algunos principios de táctica y estrategias de Exit asset-management "bad bank" REO Real Estate Owned Rettungserwerb Problemkredit REO-Management budgeting caja cashflow "distressed asset" "due diligence" eurohypo icd "incentive care" "non performing loans" npl Conet-services datawarehouse pfandbriefbank portfolio " exit - strategie" portfolio-management property "realestate immobilie" servicing sip workout conact orgaplan UEN Kowollik lucidi QINET "UnionEstatesNetwork" Conactor Cashflow CashflowSync AMSync Property Securization Cartolarizzazione Verbriefung CMBS RMBS ABS PDV Financial services Summit DOCRating Portfolio Portfolio-Management Risk-Mangement BAFIN SOFFIN casa immueble Recupero Credito Wohnungsteigentum condominio WEG Teilungserklärung RE-lifecycle Hudson Advisors Servicing Advisors Immofori FMP-Forderungsmanagement Assetgate Altor-Group Aste Zwangserwaltung Insolvenz Distress debts REO REO-Notes Special Servicing main Servicing Primer Servicing Trustee fiducario Treuhand Intesa Unicredit Immobilien Ubibanca ByYou Jerome Chapuis First Atlantic Ricucci EH-Estate Fortress condominio amministrazione immobiliare condominiale integrazione sincronizzazione ruoli immobiliare millesimo conto economico Fondo immobiliare IAS/IFRS commercialista KMPG Deloitte revisione MPS Unicredit SGR Banca d`Italia Legge 106 cartoliarizzazione Reo Immobilie imueble Casa Recupero Credito Bad Bank SIP Sistema integrada protection Caja workout Credito fallido credits en détresse Troubelshooting incentive care ICD Pfandbriefbank Eurohypo Portfolio ; Exit - Strategia Immobilienfond Software Orgaplan CONact Unicredit CashflowSync RE-lifecycle Kowollik deuda morosa UEN Union Estates Network lucidi vendittelli UCCMB italfondiario Due Diligence Portal-Software Web-Solutions Property Property Management Amministrazione immobiliare Condominio ciclo di vita del Immobile fundos immobiliarios April 2011 PwC 8
  • 10. Portfolio Advisory Group PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisory SpA Via Monte Rosa, 91 20 149 Milano Tel. 02 80646.1 This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisory SpA, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. © 2011 PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisory SpA. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisory SpA which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity.