This document summarizes a presentation on the past, present, and future of forage crops. It provides an overview of the Canadian forage industry, noting its economic importance. It then discusses trends of declining forage acreage and yields. Reasons for concern about these trends are explained, using Ontario as an example case study. The document suggests future opportunities for forages lie in continued research on improved varieties and management, promoting their economic and environmental benefits, and finding new ways to incorporate forages into cropping systems.

1. Forage: Essential crop of the past, present and future
Bill Deen
University of Guelph, Canada, Department of Plant Agriculture
Bdeen@uoguelph.ca
5th Annual CFGA Conference and Annual General Meeting
‘Closing the Forage Gap’ – Addressing the
Competitiveness of Forages
in the Agricultural Landscape
November 17, 18, 19, 2014 – Bromont, Québec

2. Outline
• Overview of Canadian forage industry
• Trends in the industry: acreage, research
• Reasons for concern: Ontario example
• Future opportunities for forages?

3. Overview of the Canadian Forage Industry

5. Overview of the Canadian Forage Industry
• Cultivated forages for pasture, feed and seed production,
account for 33.8 million acres or 39% of Canada crop
production land
• Approximately 80% of Canada’s beef production depends
on forages
• Forages represent 60% of a dairy cow diet
• Farm cash receipts for forage was $ 381.9 million in 2010,
$5 billion when on farm feed value for beef, dairy, sheep
and equine is included
Source: National Forage Assessment 2011

6. Forage Acreages – Canada 2011
Type (000 acres)
Natural Pastures 36,316
Tame, Seeded Pastures 13,669
Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures 11,223
Other Tame Hay & Fodder 5,711
Cereals for Green Feed 1,245
Cereals for Silage 860
Corn for silage 675
Forage Seed 326
Total 000 acres 70,065
Source: National Forage Assessment 2011

7. Trends in the industry: acreage, research
Tame hay
yield-
Canada,
1970-2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 001-0010 - Estimated areas, yield, production
and average farm price of principal field crops, in metric units, annual
(accessed: November 08, 2014)

8. Trends in the industry: acreage, research

9. Trends in the industry: acreage, research
Harvested
area by
crop, 1970-
2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 001-0010 - Estimated areas, yield, production and average
farm price of principal field crops, in metric units, annual (accessed: November 08, 2014)

10. Trends in the industry: acreage, research
Harvested
area by
crop, 1970-
2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 001-0010 - Estimated areas, yield, production and average
farm price of principal field crops, in metric units, annual (accessed: November 08, 2014)

11. Trends in the industry: acreage, research
Yield by
crop,
1970-
2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 001-0010 - Estimated areas, yield, production and average
farm price of principal field crops, in metric units, annual (accessed: November 08, 2014)

12. Trends in the industry: acreage, research
# of farms
/tame hay
acreage,
1970-2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 004-0015 - Census of Agriculture, focus on selected
commodities, Canada and provinces, every 5 years (number) (accessed: November 08, 2014)

13. Trends in the industry: acreage, research
# of farms
/tame hay
acreage,
1970-2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 004-0015 - Census of Agriculture, focus on selected
commodities, Canada and provinces, every 5 years (number) (accessed: November 08, 2014)

14. Trends in the industry: acreage, research
# of cattle by
class , 1970-
2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 003-0032 - Number of cattle, by class and farm type, annual
(head) (accessed: November 08, 2014)

15. “ First, Wisconsin dairy producers have
suffered considerable stand loss from alfalfa
winterkill during the 1990’s. In some
situations, this has forced producers to harvest
and feed more corn silage. Many of these
producers found that there was no milk
production decline on these higher corn silage
diets when rations were balanced
accordingly.”
“ A second reason for more corn
silage production is being
driven by private industry. Some
seed companies are placing a
strong emphasis and devoting
large chunks of research dollars
toward developing and
marketing corn hybrids for use
as silage crop.”
`Finally, many dairy farms in
Wisconsin are modernizing
and rapidly increasing cow
numbers. As farms get bigger,
it becomes increasingly
difficult to harvest large
acreage of alfalfa in the
window where optimum
forage quality is obtained.``

17. Exported Forages, Hay & Clover
($ Million) Statistics Canada, March 2010
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Tim hay 104.8 123.4 77.4 75.1 53.6 48.8
Dehy Alf M & P 22.4 29.5 23.3 18.7 13.3 13.7
Dehy Alf cubes 15.3 17.2 17.2 11.7 5.5 7.3
Other Hay 7.4 9.4 13.1 9.9 4.9 9.0
Other Alfalfa -
bales
6.0 7.7 10.8 7.2 2.6 17.7
Other 10.9 6.2 5.8 2.7 2.3 4
Total value 166.8 193.4 147.6 125.3 82.2 100.5
Source: National Forage Assessment 2011

19. Trends in the industry: acreage, research
Source Survey of 25 federal, provincial and industry beef research
funders, Beef Cattle Research Council

20. Reasons for concern
Why should “we” be concerned that forage yields have
plateaued/declining and acreage is declining?
• Growing global demand for food/feed/fibre/fuel
• Canadian land area stable…Class 1, 2 and 3 land being developed and
replaced by “less dependable” land
• Rate of gain in livestock feed conversion efficiencies is slowing
• Future increase in production increasingly reliant on yield per acre
• Forages represent approximately 40% of land area
• Forages contribute to competitiveness of beef, dairy and sheep
sectors

21. Reasons for concern
Why should “we” be concerned that forage yields have
plateaued/declining and acreage is declining?
• Forages provide substantial environmental goods
and services, particularly on “marginal” or
“sensitive” land

22. Source: Amélie C.M Gaudin*, Sabrina Westra, Cora E.S Loucks, Ken Janovicek, Ralph C. Martin,
William Deen. 2012. Improving Resilience of Northern Field Crop Systems Using Inter-Seeded
Red Clover. Agronomy. doi:10.3390/agro20x0000x

23. Reasons for concern
Why should “we” be concerned that forage yields have
plateaued/declining and acreage is declining?
• Forages provide substantial environmental goods
and services, particularly on “marginal” or
“sensitive” land
• Increasing concerns with moving to simple rotations
that exclude forages

24. Reasons for concern: Ontario example
Trend in past five years
• Declining beef and dairy head
• Declining forage acres
• Increasing corn silage
• Growers questioning inclusion of wheat/cover
crops in rotation
• Increase in corn and soybean acreage

25. Elora Research Station : 1625 acres, silt loam
soil, 900mm annual rainfall, 2700-2800 CHU

26. Corn
Soybean
Alfalfa
Barley
Wheat
NT
CT
• Initiated in 1980
• Rotations – CCCC, AAAA, CCAA, CCSS, CCSW,
CCSW(rc), CCOB, CCO(rc)B(rc)
• Conventional tillage and no-till

27. Reasons for concern: Ontario example
Corn soybean rotation is associated with
• Reduced yield
• Reduced system resiliency
• Reduced soil organic matter and associated benefits
• Increased input requirement (eg. nitrogen)
• Reduced input use efficiency
• Reduced probability of no-till success
• Reduced opportunity to incorporate cover crops
• Increased GHG emission
Meyers et al, 2006a; Meyers et al 2006b; Sanscartier et al, 2013; Munkholm et al,
2012; Munkholm et al, 2013; Muellera et al, 2009; Gaudin et al, 2013; Gaudin et
al. 2014; Gaugin et al. (submitted), Kludze et al. 2013.

28. Photo: October 09, 2011 satellite image when the cyanobacteria bloom
covered the largest area of Lake Erie. Bright green is the bloom as scum or
right near the surface. Courtesy NASA MODIS data processed by R. Stumpf,
NOAA.

29. Reasons for concern: Ontario example
Given a future (and a present?) that is characterized by
• Climate change
• Higher yield potential
• Lower average soil class
• Residue removal
Is a simple two crop rotation OK?

30. Reasons for concern: Ontario example

31. Past technological yield gains
- Increased maize water requirements?-
There is an obligatory link between CO2 assimilation rate (A) and
transpiration rate (T)
TR Sinclair
Increase in yields have been tightly linked with increase in
transpiration losses.

32. Potential
increase in crop
residue removal
for biomass

34. CCAA
CCOrcBrc
CCSWrc
CCOB
CCSW
* *
* *
* *
-5 0 5 10
Rotation effect (% of CCSS cluster mean)
* *
*
*
*
*
*
*
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
CCCC
Rotation effect (% of CCSS cluster mean)
*
*
*
*
Rotation diversity
• Increases long term yields (“rotation effect”)
• Helps mitigates weather variations
COOL / WET seasons HOT DRY seasons OPTIMAL - High Yielding
Reduced Tillage Tillage
• Significantly decrease in yield variations and risk of crop failure
when forages are included
Gaudin A et al., PLOS one (2014) in press

35. 0 1950 0 1950 0 1950 Is sensitivity to moisture increasing over time?
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Accumulated Precipitation
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Did increase in grain yields/biomass and removal of non-water
constraints to crop production increased maize yields
responsiveness to precipitation?
Response to both low – high precipitation
1950-2012 in Ontario
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Accumulated Precipitation
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Standard Deviation of Daily Precip.
Corn yields /county (bu ac-1)

36. Change in yield response to precipitation
1950 1980 2010 1950 1980 2010
Precipitation during vegetative growth
(mm, May-June)
Δ Yield (bu ac-1)
• No alteration in maize response to precipitation at early growth stages
• Yields appear to be increasingly sensitive to summer rainfall over time
- Model captures the persistence of early growing season precipitation
into the summer months
- Relationship between extreme heat/VPD and precipitation
R package: visreg (Breheny and Burchett, 2014)
Precipitation during flow-grain filling
(mm, July-August)
Δ Yield (bu ac-1)

37. Future opportunities for forages?
• Continue research to
• “develop annual and perennial forage varieties with
improved establishment, increased yield, improved
adaptation to stressors such as drought, flooding and
saline soils, improved ensilability and nutritional
value, and
• improve grass/rangeland/hay land management and
utilization to increase productivity, longevity and
sustainability” (CFGA stated objectives)”
Source Canadian Forage and Grassland Association’s Strategy for the Future

38. Future opportunities for forages?
• Promote message of INCREASING economic and
environmental importance forages
• Look for non-traditional ways to incorporate
forages/livestock production into existing cropping
systems
• Expand traditional concept of forages to include
• Cover crops
• Biomass
• Look for ways to encourage private industry to
participate in research

39. Future opportunities for forages?
• Look for non-traditional ways to incorporate
forages/livestock production into existing cropping
systems – eg. double cropped forages after winter wheat

40. Future opportunities for forages?
• Expand traditional concept of forages to include Biomass
Crops
Technical and
sustainability challenges
with crop residue removal
MIscanthus
Switchgrass

41. Corn Price2 N Cost MERN 3 MEY 4 Profit 5
Cover crop
$ Mg-1 $ kg-1 kg N ha-1 kg ha-1 $ ha-1
Future opportunities for forages?
No-Red clover 143 9454 1293
Red clover 79 9886 1382
Difference ** ** **
No-Red clover 129 9338 823
Red clover 74 9841 889
Difference ** ** **
No-Red clover 129 9338 1234
Red clover 74 9841 1353
Difference ** ** **
No-Red clover 107 9068 773
Red clover 63 9713 863
Difference ** ** **
150 1
• Look for ways to encourage private industry to
participate in research
100 1
Corn Price2 N Cost MERN 3 MEY 4 Cover crop
$ 150 Mg-1 1.5
$ kg-1 kg N ha-1 kg ha-1 No-Red clover 143 9454 100 1.5
Red clover 79 9886 Difference ** ** No-Red clover 129 9338 Red clover 74 9841 Difference 1 Analysis conducted using 19 paired comparison of red clover-no-red clover
2 Corn price after drying, handling and marketing
3 Maximum economic rate of nitrogen calculated using a quadratic function
4 Maximum economic yield at MERN
5 Profit based on nitrogen rate and corn yield at MERN and clover establishment cost of $40 ha-1
** ** No-Red clover 129 9338 Red clover 74 9841 Difference 150 1
100 1
150 1.5
** ** No-Red clover 107 9068 100 1.5
Red clover 63 9713 Difference ** ** 1 Analysis conducted using 19 paired comparison of red clover-no-red clover
2 Corn price after drying, handling and marketing

42. bdeen@uoguelph.ca