Presentation on Esri European User Conference by D. Buckley, J. Ramírez and JM Lahoz from DTS Wildfire Tecnosylva.

1. 15 years supporting
Wildfires
operations
From Aragón to San Diego
J Ramirez & JM Lahoz (tecnosylva)
D Buckley (dtswildfire)

2. Cedar Fire, going through Sycamore Creek Neighborhood in Poway Ca., October 2003
http://youtu.be/-IG9Jhx4xIA

3. Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response System at NASA/GSFC http://youtu.be/eET7jwJOOqA

4. http://www.nifc.go
v/fireInfo/fireInfo_
statistics.html
12000000 300000
Lower number of fires but bigger
- The better we are fighting fires, the bigger those we cannot win
10000000 250000
8000000 200000
fires
acres burnt
6000000 150000
4000000 100000
2000000 50000
Fires
0 0
Acres
1960
1964
1966
1968
1970
1974
1976
1978
1980
1984
1986
1988
1990
1994
1996
1998
2000
2004
2006
2008
2010
1962
1972
1982
1992
2002

6. American Flight 1956-57 Yes, it is Arc !
1994 Spain fire season
437.000 ha burnt
Aragón: Villarluengo 27.000 ha

7. 393 forest rangers
46 engines
9 helicopters
8 helicrews
69 crews
2 advanced command posts
152 small engines
+
2 canadair
1 sokol
1 Kamoc
1 BRIF

8. Helicopter crash in Alcorisa, Mar 18th, 6 fatalities
Total fatalities 2011:

9. Geotechnologies &Wildfires
•
•

10. Geotechnologies & Wildfires
GIS
Artificial
GNSS
Inteligence
BI &
Document Mobility
Management
Wildfire GTs
Remote
Sensing Sensors
Predictive
Services Communications

11. …ok, maybe we need some help on the field ¡¡¡
do you have these trees in US?

13. What is geospatial fire simulation?
1938 Honey Fire, Louisiana

14. The science and art of GWS
• Where the fire is going to be in the next …?
• How is it burning process?
• When can we expect to stop it?
• What is the potential of the fire?
• Why is the fire jumping?
All these questions have spatio-temporal answers

15. Who’s who in GWS
Harry T. Gisborne Jack S. Barrow
Director of the Missoula fire Lab
First true specialist in forest
fire research in the Nation The Mann Gulch Fire (1949)

16. Farsite: Mark Finney’s First complete
GWS (1991-1998)

17. for this problem… we need models¡
• Models help us to better understand
complex systems
• Helps us to quantify the problems
• Fire behavior involves (in a short
approach)
– Weather
– Fuel
– Terrain
– Human factors
• Spatial and Temporal combined
analysis is needed

18. Modeling fire behaviour
R. C. Rothermel, 1987
Managing Research for Success
Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-101 Berkeley, CA. Pacific Southwest
Forest and Range Experiment Station, Forest Service, U.S.
Department of Agriculture; 1987

19. Models are out there
Models completed in period 1990-2007
12 Physical
7 quasi-physical
15 empirical
5 quasi-empirical
11 simulation
22 mathematical analogous
Andrew L. Sullivan
Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007
International Journal of Wildland Fire
Volume 18 Number 4 2009
.

20. FBAN’s: the guys that need tools to
run the models ant the right place ¡

21. (Adapted from Stratton 2005)
Refine ignition
points, active fronts,
secondary spots
Weather & Fuel ROS Refinement of the
adjustmens scenario: fuels, firebreaks,
operations
Evaluation of observed Weather input review:
ROS: field observers, AVL predictions&RAWS vs in
resources, aerial imagery field measurements
Atention to sensible
parameters: local wind
effects, fuel moisture

22. We need to take sims from the lab…
LANL Coupled Fire/Atmosphere Modeling, FIRETEC
http://ees.lanl.gov/ees16/FIRETEC.shtml

23. to the Incident Command Post …

24. … to support operations

25. Agency Wide Incident Management

26. Integrated WF System Vision

27. Software Vision

28. Incident Lifecycle
• Includes all phases of
wildland firefighting
requirements, from:
• Detection
• Resource
management
• Response &
suppression
management
• Impact analysis &
damage assessment
• Documentation &
tracking

29. How Does it Work?
• Seamless Synchronization
• Uses a data replication
approach based on
transactional architecture
• Facilitates exchange of data
between seamlessly
between users
• Designed to ensure data
synchronization occurs in
the most severe
operational scenarios
• Designed for EOC and
related command hierarchy

39. Vulnerable
asset

40. Save side
Wind will push fire
away asset
Dangerous side
Wind will push fire
toward asset

41. Save side
Wind will push fire
away asset
Dangerous side
Wind will push fire
toward asset

42. Each cell represents:
the TIME a fire would take to get to the
evacuation point with the given
conditions…

44. Alabama Forestry Commission
Suppression Budget Analysis

45. Fire Perimeter & Origin
Fire ignition
May 7-9, 2007 – St. Clair Stone Fire

46. Wildfire Simulation – Nearby Communities
St. Clair Stone Fire

47. Wildfire Simulation – Comparison
Actual Perimeter
St. Clair Stone Fire

48. St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation
Accumulative Residential Population Impacted
By Hour Progression of Wildfire
1.800 1.704
1.600 1.510
1.418
1.400
1.345
1.229 1.246
1.200
1.052
1.000
800
615
600
479
400
244
137 160
200
16
0
4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52
Hour of Wildfire
Accumulative Population Impacted

49. Wildfire Simulation – Impacted Parcels
St. Clair Stone Fire

50. St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation
Number of Structures Impacted by Wildfire
By Hour of Progression
300
258
250
Structures Impacted
200
150 137
105
89
100 81
69
60
49
50
39 32 33
20 21
0
4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52
Hour of Wildfire
Total Structures Impacted

51. St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation
Accumulative Potential $ Loss of Structures
By Hour Progression of Wildfire
$100 $93,6
$89,0
$90
$81,5
$77,9
$80 $73,7 $75,7
$70
$66,8
$60
$ in Millions
$50
$40
$32,1
$30 $24,4
$20
$12,8
$7,2 $8,1
$10 $3,9
$0
4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52
Hour of Wildfire
Accumulated Structure Loss

52. Click the image
to play the AFC
YouTube video
that describes
the analysis

54. new uses of operational simulations
Prevention Operations Post fire
• Observed Fire • Every Alarm • Fire Scenarios
Behavior Evaluation • Impact
database • Multiple assesment
• Fuel management incidents • What if?
• Analyze firebreaks
efficiency
• IAP support • Historical
• Resources location • Integration in analysis
optimization DSS • New local
models

57. anyone joins the lady?
I’ve got a
question…
Thank you for your attention
Joaquín Ramírez
jramirez@tecnosylva.com
David Buckley
dbuckley@dtsgis.com