Moldova risks experiencing "EU fatigue" if it fails to deliver concrete reforms to meet EU expectations. While Moldova has achieved successes in foreign policy, reforms internally have only begun and not been consolidated. Ukraine provides a cautionary tale, as initial success gave way to disappointment over political chaos and lack of reforms. Moldova must avoid this by boosting reforms, especially in justice and law enforcement, to maintain its image as a success story and EU trust within the Eastern Partnership. Frequent elections could hamper this if not accompanied by tangible changes for citizens.

1. Institute for
Development and
MOLDOVA’S FOREIGN POLICY STATEWATCH Social Initiatives
“Viitorul”
Issue 23, MAY 2011
LEONID LITRA
HOW TO AVOID THE
EU FATIGUE TOWARDS
MOLDOVA? 1
NEXT TOPIC
TO BE COVERED:
T
The stagnation
wo years ago any political discussion in Mol- of economic
dova or between the Moldova’s Western part- transformation in
ners could be summarized to one question: Moldova
Moldova quo vadis? Moldova was really at
the crossroads. But nowadays it is perceived
as the main success story within the Eastern Moldova’s Foreign Policy Sta-
tewatch represents a series of
Partnership. Indeed, Moldova has had remar- brief analyses, written by local
kable achievements in the foreign policy since the AIE and foreign experts, dedicated
(Alliance for European Integration) came to power. Ho- to the most topical subjects
related to the foreign policy of
wever, Moldova is not yet a success story but has the
Moldova, major developments
potential to become one. The greatest challenge facing in the Black Sea Region, coope-
Chisinau in terms of its leader status within the Eastern ration with international orga-
Partnership and of the EU trust is to meet the EU ex- nizations and peace building
activities in the region. It aims
pectations by concrete reforms. What the Republic of to create a common platform
Moldova has to offer so far look more like beginnings for discussion and to bring to-
of reforms than durable and consolidated reforms. But gether experts, commentators,
when the gap between the foreign policy successes officials and diplomats who are
concerned with the perspecti-
and the modest progresses in the internal changes be- ves of European Integration of
comes too large, Moldova’s image as a success story Moldova. It is also pertaining
can burst like a soap bubble. This risk is not inevitable to offer to Moldova’s diplomats
and analysts a valuable tribune
but it still exists. Both Ukraine and Georgia have pas-
for debating the most interes-
sed through this experience of bubble bursts. ting and controversial points of
view that could help Moldova to
1 This policy brief is based on an article that was published by Leonid Litra in the Early Warning Report of find its path to EU.
IDIS Viitorul.

2. 2 Moldova’s Foreign Policy Statewatch
In this context, the Republic of Moldova has to make considerable ef-
forts in order to avoid a possible EU disappointment that could lead to
fatigue. Ukraine and Georgia, as a result of revolutions, have passed
through this cycle of “success story”, failure and disappointment. What
is important for Moldova is to avoid the Ukrainian scenario that could
become possible because of two factors: constant political chaos and
lack of reforms. If Moldova does not manage to boost and accelerate
the reforms process by offering some concrete results there is a sig-
nificant likelihood that in 2012 Moldova will encounter the EU fatigue
which, in turn, will cause a disinterest and will place Chisinau next to the
former success stories: Georgia and Ukraine.
Regional context
The greatest challenge Chisinau1 is facing in terms of its leader status within the Eastern
Partnership and of the EU trust is to meet the EU expectations by concrete reforms and I refer here to
the justice reform, law-enforcement bodies and the institutional capacity. The launching of the Eastern
Partnership has offered a new dynamic to the region in the EU Eastern neighborhood. In the framework
of this regional initiative, the Republic of Moldova has managed to successfully integrate, despite a
not very friendly start expressed by the former president V. Voronin who concluded that the Eastern
Partnership is the second CIS aiming at encircling Russia. 2 After the AIE came to power, the EU – the
Republic of Moldova relationship normalized and exceeded the traditional framework. Moldova, after it
had started approaching the EU, began being spoken about in other terms. If before the conferences and
research headlines regarding Moldova were “Quo Vadis Moldova?” or “Moldova at the crossroads”, etc,
now they have a positive tone and are rendered in a way proving the beginning of a success: “Moldova’s
Breakthrough” or “Moldova – major European success in the EP?” 3.
There are other processes taking place in the EU. On the background of an economic and financial
crisis, the EU wants fewer commitments to the “third world” countries. At the same time, the 2004 and
2007 enlargements made the EU more cautious and added to the existing problems, in the context of the
discrepancy between the “old Europe” and the “new Europe”. All these make Europe slower and more
closed and as a proof we can bring the statements of some important European leaders concerning the
multiculturalism failure4 but mainly it refers to the migration from the southern neighborhood, however
it includes the Eastern part as well. The term “enlargement fatigue” is as old as the EU itself dating at
about the 1960’s when France used its veto to block Great Britain’s access to the European Community5.
The term was used during history, being massively mentioned after the 2004 and 2007 enlargements6.
Recently the same term is adjusted in order to refer to the neighboring countries that are not officially in
the process of joining the EU but are in some sectors integrating in the EU.
1
2 Voronin: Eastern Partnership is encircling Russia like a ring, 27/02/2009, Moldova.org, http://politicom.moldova.org/news/voronin-eastern-
partnership-is-encircling-russia-like-a-ring-186084-eng.html
3 An example may be the study of Parmentier, Florent: Moldova, a Major European success for the Eastern Partnership? European Issue No
186, 22/11/2010, Robert Schumann Foundation, http://www.robert-schuman.eu/doc/questions_europe/qe-186-en.pdf
4 The last half a year, several leaders declared that multiculturalism is a failure because it did not manage to successfully integrate the im-
migrants. Among them we can find: Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy, David Cameron, John Howard and Hose Maria Aznar. See Nicolas Sarkozy
declares multiculturalism had failed, The Telegraph, 11/02/2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/8317497/Nicolas-
Sarkozy-declares-multiculturalism-had-failed.html
5 Beyond Enlargement Fatigue?, European Stability Initiative Series, http://www.esiweb.org/index.php?lang=en&id=156&document_ID=74
6 Forgue, David G.; Kehoskie, Nicole Schude: Enlargement Fatigue in the European Union, American Bar Association, http://www.barnesrich-
ardson.com/files/tbl_s47Details%5CFileUpload265%5C126%5Cforgue_fatigue.pdf
Str. Iacob Hîncu 10/1, Chişinău MD-2005 Republic of Moldova 373 / 22 221844 phone 373 / 22 245714 fax office@viitorul.org www.viitorul.org

3. Moldova’s Foreign Policy Statewatch 3
In the above-mentioned conditions it is hard to impress the EU in order to offer more than it is
prescribed in the most optimistic documents regarding the Republic of Moldova as well. Nevertheless, the
Republic of Moldova has managed to generate great expectations in the EU and also a leader sentiment
among the Eastern Partnership countries. These expectations and successes were created when the
Alliance for the European Integration came to power thanks to the change in the situation, especially, in
the area of human rights and mass media freedom and also owing to regional dynamic of the EP which
proves an obvious worsening of democratic standards.
In the above-described context, the greatest challenge facing Chisinau in terms of its leader
status within the Eastern Partnership and of the EU trust is to meet the EU expectations by concrete
reforms. What the Republic of Moldova has to offer so far look more like beginnings of reforms than
reforms where it might state with certitude that it is in agreement with the EU requirements. In this context,
the Republic of Moldova has to make considerable efforts in order to avoid a likely EU disappointment
which could lead to fatigue.
Ukraine 2005-2010: from success
story to failure
In the case of the Republic of Moldova the most relevant pattern to mold a scenario is certainly
Ukraine. In spite of different geographical parameters and a more conspicuous polarization, Ukraine was
the indisputable leader of the European Neighborhood Policy after the 2004 Revolution. The political
forces that had come to power in Ukraine in 2004 constantly fluctuated politically without being able
to offer tangible results except for those related to press freedom and human rights. Those 5 years of
democratic governance in Ukraine were 5 years of political struggles of a maximum intensity as well. The
content of the political struggle was expressed by a blocked Parliament, relationships between forces
within the Alliance where the commitments were not complied with, by a justice reform that was officially
supported by the Alliance but was not actually being implemented in practice. Moreover, the conflict
became so exacerbated that it embraced the institutions as well – the government bills were not accepted
by the Parliament. Finally, the EU – Ukraine relationships spoiled and a fatigue towards Ukraine took
shape in the EU and meanwhile, the fatigue towards the EU appeared in Ukraine on the background of
a pronounced Euro-skepticism7.
At the base of all problems that emerged in the Ukrainian political life was, first of all, a lack of
consensus among the Alliance forces, and also, in a broader meaning, a lack of consensus within society
regarding the reforms that had to be carried out, especially those related to the foreign policy. Just like in
the case of Moldova, the disagreements focused on the most fundamental issues such as constitutional
reform, which implied reducing the presidential powers whose Commission was severely criticized for
being biased. At the same time, the struggle between the components of the Alliance that transferred
to a struggle between institutions was very obvious. The best example would be the “decrees war” in
which the second government of Iulia Timoshenko (2007-2009) received 881 directives, instructions
and requirements from the Presidency and its secretariat during the first 100 days in office, while the
government of Victor Yanukovych received 231 during the same period8.
Undoubtedly, there was an enormous geopolitical stake, much bigger than that in the Republic
of Moldova. The geopolitical stake did not consist only in keeping Ukraine within the Russia’s zone of
influence but also in neutralizing the risk of an orange revolution that could have been fomented in Russia
following the Ukrainian model. As for the Republic of Moldova, the geopolitical stake is perceived on the
background of the fact that Chisinau is at the moment the only beginning of the EU success story in the
eastern neighborhood.
7 Popescu, Nicu: (2009), “Ukraine fatigue” vs “EU fatigue”, Euobserver Blogs, 3/12/2009, http://blogs.euobserver.com/popescu/2009/12/03/
ukraine-fatigue-vs-eu-fatigue/
8 For a full description of power struggles in Ukraine see Gromadzki, Grzegorz; Movchan, Veronika et al., Beyond Colours: Assests and Li-
abilities of “Post-Orange” Ukraine, International Renaissance Foundation, Kyiv 2010, Stefan Batory Foundation, Warsaw 2010.
Str. Iacob Hîncu 10/1, Chişinău MD-2005 Republic of Moldova 373 / 22 221844 phone 373 / 22 245714 fax office@viitorul.org www.viitorul.org

4. 4 Moldova’s Foreign Policy Statewatch
Moldova’s “Ukrainization” danger
and international conjuncture
In the Republic of Moldova is observed, a smaller size “Ukrainization” of politics. The context in
which this term is used derives mainly from the political crisis triggered by the non-election of the head of
the state but also from the numerous elections taking place. Since the 5th of April 2009 till present there have
been 4 elections and the 5th is going to take place at the beginning of the summer of 2011, thus, during 2
years Moldova had 5 elections and could also have a referendum and anticipated elections. Despite a rather
functional government, in the context of electoral campaigns and political struggles, some adopted decisions
have a populist character and the ministries officials prefer to be less loyal because of the likelihood of power
change, as an example we can bring the resistance in reforming the Ministry of Interior and the judiciary.
Like in the case of Ukraine, the biggest problem in the Republic of Moldova seems to be the lack
of a consensus concerning the developing pattern that has to be adopted. In a larger context, there is a
struggle between the Alliance and the Communist party, the internal conflict within the Alliance and the
society polarization in terms of the geopolitical vector of Moldova, while the biggest risk are the interminable
elections and, even if they are considered being democratic, they will not bring palpable changes in real
terms for the population. Besides these aspects is observed a struggle between the state institutions as well
which sometimes have divided opinions about crucial issues; these aspects being replicated from the party
level to the level of the institutions led by the heads of these parties.
At the international level the situation is not better either. The protests wave hitting Egypt, Tunis,
Oman, Syria, Jordan, Algeria, Libya, Bahrain, Nepal and Iran shifts the EU attention towards these regions.
Moreover, the EU sees in this wave of protests an opportunity to be seized in order to take some action in
these countries. The European Parliament already examined the review of the European Neighborhood
Policy southern dimension9 and the crucial fact is that some important countries, including France and Spain,
are already pleading for reducing the funds granted to the former Soviet countries and their redirection to
the countries in the North Africa10. It is worthwhile mentioning that in this letter the Republic of Moldova
was explicitly given as an example by stating that in the framework of the European Neighborhood Policy
(2007-2013) Chisinau receives 25 EUR per capita while Egypt 1,8 EUR per capita which represents a
disproportionate and asymmetric policy that nowadays is “difficult to justify and sustain.”
PR vs. Results
The above-mentioned internal and external nuances create the necessary conditions for a possible
EU fatigue towards the Republic of Moldova that will appear next year if Chisinau will not be able to offer
concrete results in order to meet The EU expectations. The EU has very big expectations towards Moldova
especially on the background of the democracy decline in other Eastern Partnership countries and of the
ascension in the south of the EU and in the Middle East11. The need for a leader state within the Eastern
Partnership is not needed only in order to create a competition between the countries in the EU eastern
neighborhood but also because of the justification of the European initiatives success in this direction.
The avoidance of the EU fatigue is closely connected to Moldova’s capacity to offer palpable results in the
domain of key reforms something more than just assurance that everything is going to be all right. For instance, the
Ministry of Interior reform is an issue that not only the EU is tired of but the Moldovan society as well. Although there
is an understanding of the fact that carrying out reforms is not that easy and there are variables to be considered,
however, states like Georgia, and we do not refer now to the consolidation of authoritarianism, managed to reform
the Ministry of Interior in a relatively short time with results appreciated by the EU partners. The same thing refers to
9 European Parliament resolution on the review of the European Neighborhood Policy – Southern Dimension, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/
meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/afet/re/840/840978/840978en.pdf
10 Rettman, Andrew; France and Spain call to shift EU funds from east to south, 21/02/2011, http://euobserver.com/9/31843
11 Popescu, Nicu (2011): Of Eastern and Southern neighbors, EUobserver, 14/02/2011, http://blogs.euobserver.com/popescu/2011/02/14/on-
eastern-southern-neighbours/
Str. Iacob Hîncu 10/1, Chişinău MD-2005 Republic of Moldova 373 / 22 221844 phone 373 / 22 245714 fax office@viitorul.org www.viitorul.org

5. Moldova’s Foreign Policy Statewatch 5
the antidiscrimination law that strolls through different institutions but is not passed, fearing that this would decrease
the popularity of that who would promote it. It is necessary to emphasize that this is one of the conditions for the visa
regime liberalization, that is why a consensus among the stakeholders has to be reached.
These aspects refer to the internal capacity of Moldova to successfully manage the process of
adjustment to the EU standards. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will no longer be able to “sell” successes if they
do not really occur. Moreover, the part related to the foreign affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European
Integration has reached, roughly speaking, its maximal working capacity and this has to be appreciated. But
as for the European integration part of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, it had poorer
results. The interaction between these two dimensions is going on in a disproportioned manner, taking into
account the fact that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs marketing is a good one and makes the European partners
ready to buy Moldova’s “product” but, because of much more poorer results in terms of internal changes, the
product that has already been successfully promoted is not ready to be sold. In this context, the initiative of
some experts to establish a Minister or an Agency for European Integration might be a good opportunity to
arrange the matters the way to have a higher efficiency in coordinating the European Integration process.
Conclusions
What we need now are examples of leader institutions that would maintain the EU interest in Moldova
alive. There are several institutions that have “started” like the National Center for Protection of Personal
Data that could be served to lure the EU. Meanwhile, these institutions are capable of offering only some
more months of the EU attention and fascination. Currently, the European route of Moldova has to be
strengthened by the revival of some other institutions whose lack was felt during all these years. An
example could be the Agency for Competition Protection that might improve the competition climate or
the Court of Accounts whose investigations have to be treated much more seriously than till now or the
terms for preventive detention. These examples are connected with a very problematic phenomenon for
Moldova – corruption and, in a more precise sense, with the visa liberalization process. The intensity of
offering new results must comprise periods of 3-4 months which will make the EU “muse” permanently
upon reform results coming from Moldova. The greatest EU expectations are related to the justice reform
that has not found so far a place in the praises arriving from Brussels.
Management of the expectations from EU would be also an important dimension that has to be
taken into account. Promising rewards (like visa-free) on behalf on the Moldovan government in a very
short-time to the population and not achieving because of failure to deliver reforms might lead to the
situation of mutual disappointment.
Eventually, if the results are late, the EU fatigue towards Moldova and its disgrace are inevitable.
Chisinau has, at present, a chance that it will not have for a long time. And the concrete results cannot
be achieved if the political clashes within the Alliance will last because this party rivalry will lead to the
Alliance for European Integration collapse and in such a case it does not matter who was right. The
successes in terms of pluralism of opinions and democracy in Moldova are aspects that permitted to
revive the dialog with the EU but they will not prove enough to maintain Brussels enthusiasm because in
the end in order to ensure the freedom of expression all you need is not to impede this right and even if
you guarantee the exercising of this right it does not make you a reformer.
This publication was produced by IDIS “Viitorul” with the financial support of Soros Foundation
Moldova and the National Endowment for Democracy. The opinions expressed in this publicati-
on reflect the author’s/authors’ position and don’t necessary represent the views of the donors.
Str. Iacob Hîncu 10/1, Chişinău MD-2005 Republic of Moldova 373 / 22 221844 phone 373 / 22 245714 fax office@viitorul.org www.viitorul.org
Str. Iacob Hîncu 10/1, Chişinău MD-2005 Republic of Moldova 373 / 22 221844 phone 373 / 22 245714 fax
office@viitorul.org www.viitorul.org