Richard Quincey {IES} and Dr Tristan Kershaw {Exeter University} present the Prometheus Weather Files project at Ecobuild 2011. The free weather files can be downloaded here: http://www2.iesve.com/support/​FAQs/FAQ-answer/?qId=485

1. Prometheus
The Use of Probabilistic Climate Change Data to Future-proof
Design Decisions in the Building Sector
Dr Tristan Kershaw Richard Quincey
University of Exeter IES Ltd.

2. Project
Partners: Funded by:

3. Context
UK Building Regulations
Energy Policy
Design Weather Data
Sustainable Compliance
Mitigation / Adaptation
Sustainable Design Life … 100+ years?
Risk Assessment / Investment

4. Context - current
DSY weather data – current:

5. Context - future
Peak ext design temperatures – current:
45
40
35
30
25
TRY-H
20 DSY-H
15 TRY-H
DSY-H
10
5
0
1 2 3 4
-5
-10

6. Context - future
HDD & CDD – current:
3000
2500
2000
TRY-H
1500 DSY-H
TRY-H
DSY-H
1000
500
0
2005 2030 2050 2080

7. Context - future
CEI – current:
35
30
25
20
TRY-H
15 DSY-H
10
5
0
2005 2030 2050 2080

8. Prometheus
IPCC: there is a 50% chance that global
warming will not exceed 2ºC for stabilisation of
CO2-eq at 450ppm.
Currently we are at ~425ppm CO2-eq
CO2 emissions are currently
greater than the A1FI
emissions scenario

9. Prometheus
2oC global
warming
means ~6oC
in London.

10. Prometheus
Perception of climate change within the building industry
• Surveys of several architectural and engineering firms.
• General concern about climate change and inadequacies of current practices.
Very few (~6%) actively denied climate change.
• Greater seniority greater satisfaction with current practices.
• Participants focused almost exclusively upon mitigation rather than adaptation
options when listing current practices.
• Most common reactions to climate change were to reduce CO2 emissions,
increase sustainability and longevity of building design.
• When asked about possible alternatives to current practices only 5% of
responses listed adaptation options, the rest were exclusively mitigation based.
• Main barrier to change was time / money.
Published in Building and Environment 46 1151-1158 (2011)

11. Prometheus
UKCP09 Probability Levels

12. Prometheus
How this affects the UK

13. Prometheus
Possible impacts: Heatwaves
∆T warmest day ∆T warmest night

14. Prometheus
So we need weather files! CIBSE files:14 sites
Exeter files: 35 sites
•3 time periods
•5 probability levels
•Medium and high emission
scenarios
•Both TRY and DSY type files
Method peer reviewed and
published.
Building Serv. Eng. Res.
Technol. (online).
Files available for free download from:
http://www.exeter.ac.uk/cee/prometheus

15. Prometheus
Comparing files: CDFs
The UKCP09 weather
generator produces 3000
years of weather from
which we assemble our
probabilistic files.
The five probabilistic files
map well the distribution of
the whole set.

16. Prometheus
Comparing files: CDDs and HDDs

17. Prometheus
The range of possible climate change is large. So which files
should you be using?
Things to consider:
•Risk to
occupants, vulnerable
groups.
•Cost benefit analysis
•Dialogue with client
Exeter files versus CIBSE files

18. Adapting Buildings
Brief:
To create a timeline of
possible adaptation
•Increased occupancy
•Modern office environment
•Possible future changes in use
•Overheating, comfort and productivity

19. Lifecycle
Building …
100 years
HVAC …
25 years

20. Climate lifecycle
Peak temperature …
50
40
TRY-H
30
DSY-H
PROTRY-50
PRODSY-50
20
TRY-H
DSY-H
PROTRY-50
10
PRODSY-50
0
2005 2030 2050 2080
-10

21. Climate lifecycle
Heating degree days…
2900
2700
2500
2300 TRY-H
DSY-H
2100 PROTRY-50
PRODSY-50
1900
1700
1500
2005 2030 2050 2080

22. Climate lifecycle
Cooling degree days…
2600
2400
2200
2000
TRY-H
1800 DSY-H
PROTRY-50
1600 PRODSY-50
1400
1200
1000
2005 2030 2050 2080

23. Climate lifecycle
Climate energy index… all hours
10
9.5
9
8.5
8
TRY-H
7.5 DSY-H
PROTRY-50
7
PRODSY-50
6.5
6
5.5
5
2005 2030 2050 2080

24. Climate lifecycle
Climate energy index…9am to 5pm
33
31
29
27
25 TRY-H
DSY-H
23
PROTRY-50
PRODSY-50
21
19
17
15
2005 2030 2050 2080

25. Conclusions
Prometheus data:
Uses the latest UKCIP data (2009)
Higher level of confidence than 2002 data
It is free … just download it
Protect investment – assess the risk
Built form – design for mitigation (CAF)
– design in adaptation strategy
HVAC – short lifecycle / long term strategy

26. Questions
Please ?