Impact of climate change on bicycle counts.
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Impact of climate change on bicycle counts. Presentation by Dr Zia Wadud. Given at Cycle City Leeds event, 1st May 2014. www.landor.co.uk/cyclecityleeds/programme.php www.its.leeds.ac.uk/people/z.wadud
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Impact of climate change on bicycle counts.
- 1. School of something FACULTY OF OTHER Impact of climate change on bicycle counts Zia Wadud, PhD DIC University Research Fellow Centre for Integrated Energy Research Institute for Transport Studies, and School of Process, Environmental and Materials Engineering
- 2. What are the plausible ranges of changes in hourly/daily bicycle use due to climate change? Objectives What would be bicycle flow today, if we had the changed climate of the future?
- 3. Modelling framework Econometric Model Simulation Cycle counts Weather elements Other factors Count Model Projected Count Others constant Projected weather Count changes Baseline counts 100UKCPWeather Simulations 29TfL Hourly Counters Rain Temp Wind Sunshine Humidity Snow Income,Employment, Busfare,Congestion charge,School holidays, Strike, Bike infrastructure 2009 2011
- 4. 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hourlyintercept Starttimeforthehouroftheday 99 101 103 140 141 173 192 194 195 200 501 508 510 518 520 526 528 532 534 536 538 540 542 548 550 551 98 102 170 Bothpeaks Morning peak Eveningpeak Result: Count Model: Hourly and Daily Variations -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri Dayofweekintercept Dayofweek 98 99 101 102 103 140 141 170 173 192 194 195 200 501 508 510 518 520 526 528 532 534 536 538 540 542 548 550 551
- 5. Rain: Reduces flow; clear non-linear impact Temperature: Increases, then reduces flow after threshold temp. Wind: Reduces flow, non-linear impact Snow: Reduces flow, large impact Sunshine hours: Increases flow Humidity: Reduces flow Impact on weekend/leisure cycling generally larger Result: Count Model: Weather Effects Summary
- 6. Result: Climate Impact: Distribution of Annual Changes 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Frequency % change in annual average hourly flows (2011 baseline) 2041 vs. 2011
- 7. Result: Climate Impact: Seasonal Impacts Summary -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual %changesinaveragehourlyflows All days Weekdays Weekends ΔTemp. ΔRain
- 8. Substantial, sometimes non-linear weather effects on cycling Net climate change effects on cycling positive, but marginal Strong seasonal effects: Substantial increases in summer Conclusions
- 9. Thank you z.wadud@leeds.ac.uk Full paper ‘cycling in a changed climate’ available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692314000027 Picture references: http://abc.ccracinginc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Cycling-Rain-Umbrella.jpg http://cdn2- b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_content_width/hash/81/95/1362606758_4667_cycling%20in%20rain.jpg?ito k=DBsjhqJL http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Environment/Pix/pictures/2011/6/28/1309268182477/Clamping-your-style-...-t-007.jpg http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65399000/jpg/_65399168_postman_sent_by_nick_todd_surrey.jpg http://img.rasset.ie/00059b93-642.jpg http://columbian.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com/img/photos/2013/07/19/688178_exercise_in_heat_134.jpg https://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/4215944778/
- 10. Result: Count Model Weather parameters Weekday Weekend Other parameters Weekday Weekend RAIN 0-1mm -0.048 -0.034 HourlyWage Rate -0.022 0.043 RAIN 1-2mm -0.116 -0.114 Unemployment Rate 0.018 0.018 RAIN 2-3mm -0.090 -0.176 Bus Fare 0.107 0.177 RAIN >3mm -0.084 -0.155 CONGESTION CHARGE 0.096 0.186 LAGRAIN (rain in prev. hour) -0.115 -0.148 INFRASTRUCTURE (Bike share, bicyclesuperhighway) 0.031 0.039 TEMPERATURE <(-5°c) -0.480 -0.365 TEMPERATURE (-5)-0°c -0.355 -0.480 STRIKE 0.166 -0.313 TEMPERATURE 0-5°c -0.178 -0.345 SCHOOL HOLIDAY -0.126 -0.103 TEMPERATURE 5-10°c -0.091 -0.206 ΣMONTH (Dummies for months) TEMPERATURE 10-15°c -0.038 -0.077 ΣCOUNTER (Dummies for counter locations)TEMPERATURE 20-25°c 0.032 0.044 TEMPERATURE >25°c 0.023 0.039 ΣCOUNTER×HOUR (Interaction of COUNTERand time of the day) See Fig. belowWIND 5-10 knots -0.011 -0.021 WIND 10-15knots -0.047 -0.105 ΣCOUNTER×DAY (Interaction of COUNTERand days of the week) See Fig. belowWIND 15-20knots -0.091 -0.167 WIND >20 knots -0.160 -0.202 SNOW -0.404 -0.401 N 449,064 200,246 Relative Humidity -0.182 -0.456 Sunshine Hours 0.040 0.059