This document summarizes an issue paper on trends and transitions in Asian irrigation and prospects for the future. It notes that while irrigation expansion lifted millions out of poverty in the 1960s-70s, population growth and climate change pose new challenges. Major pathways to meet future food demand include investing in rainfed agriculture, improving existing irrigation systems, expanding irrigation in some areas, and promoting trade. It discusses the rise of "atomistic" or small-scale groundwater irrigation in South Asia and the implications for participatory irrigation management. Adapting existing surface irrigation systems to support small farms and groundwater use will be important for sustainability.

1. IWMI and FAO ADB funded Issue Paper on Trends and transitions in Asian irrigation: What are the prospects for the future? Aditi Mukherji (IWMI) Presented at the 5 th World Water Forum, Istanbul March 2009

3. Rising irrigation, falling food prices & poverty But is irrigation expansion like1960s & 1970s possible, or even desirable? Population will increase, Climate change is imminent Do we have enough water?

5. Rise of the atomistic irrigation in South Asia.. Source: Shah, Tushaar. 2009. Taming the anarchy: groundwater governance in South Asia This calls for entirely different paradigm of water management Whither PIM*/IMT*? Contours of irrigation is fast changing *PIM: Participatory Irrigation Management *IMT: Irrigation Management Transfer Net irrigated area under surface irrigation (000’ha) Net irrigated area served by groundwater (000’ ha) 1993-4 2000-1 % change 1993-4 2000-1 % change Andhra Pradesh 2523 2269 -10.1 1678 1829 +9 Bihar & Jharkhand 1762 986.8 -44.0 2029 2111.5 +40.7 MP & Chattisgarh 2140 1279.1 -40.2 1535 2300.9 +49.9 Punjab 1283.4 1168.7 -8.9 2622 2438 -7.1 Rajasthan 1815 1439 -20.7 2702 3450 +27.7 UP & Uttaranchal 3837 2106.6 -45.1 5630 8493 + 50.8 Pakistan Punjab 4240 3740 -11.8 8760 10340 +18 Sind 2300 1960 -14.8 140 200 +42.9 Bangladesh 537 480 -10.7 2124 3462 +63 All areas 22709 17215 -24.2 28437 35762 +25.8

6. PIM/IMT will be difficult to sustain because Surface irrigation as a technology of water mobilization and Application is being crowded out by Atomistic irrigation. Strategy? Reinvent surface systems to support Atomistic irrigation Source: Shah, Tushaar. 2009. Taming the anarchy: groundwater governance in South Asia Socio-technical Preconditions that support Surface Irrigation 1. Nature of the state 1.1 Local authority structures : 1.2 State interest in irrigation: 1.3 Ease of Forced Labor: 2. Nature of Agrarian society 2.1 Irrigated cropping pattern 2.2 Ease of exit from farming 2.3 Agrarian institutions 3. Demographics 3.1 Population pressure on farm land 4.State of irrigation technology 4.1 Availability and Affordability of water lifting and transport Future of surface irrigation? FAVORABLE CONTINGENCIES STRONG REVENUE/LEVY HIGH HOMOGENEOUS LOW FEUDAL/STATIST LOW LOW BRIGHT South Asia Weak Welfare Impossible Diverse; High Egalitarian Very high; intensification and diversification. High BLEAK

7. Best bet for farmer-participatory Irrigation management. Larger farms, better levy crop prices and ‘ right’ capitalization will Promote PIM. Source: Shah, Tushaar. 2009. Taming the anarchy: groundwater governance in South Asia Socio-technical Preconditions that support Surface Irrigation 1. Nature of the state 1.1 Local authority structures : 1.2 State interest in irrigation: 1.3 Ease of Forced Labor: 2. Nature of Agrarian society 2.1 Irrigated cropping pattern 2.2 Ease of exit from farming 2.3 Agrarian institutions 3. Demographics 3.1 Population pressure on farm land 4.State of irrigation technology 4.1 Availability and Affordability of water lifting and transport Future of surface irrigation? CONTINGENCIES STRONG REVENUE/LEVY HIGH MONO CROPPING LOW FEUDAL/STATIST LOW LOW CENTRAL ASIA STRONG Welfare +Taxes+ Exports? ??? COTTON/WHEAT; HIGH taxes; LOW? STATIST? lOW; LOW? GOOD

8. Some of the arguments in this section are developed in this book.. Source: Shah, Tushaar. 2009. Taming the anarchy: groundwater governance in South Asia. Washington, DC, USA: Resources for the Future; Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI) 310p.

9. Adapting yesterday’s systems to tomorrow’s needs: What can be done? Source: Mukherji, A et al.2009. Revitalizing Asia’s irrigation: to sustainably meet tomorrow’s food needs. Stage of agricultural development Desired irrigation & drainage strategy Focus outside agriculture Developed economies (e.g. Malaysia) Seek private investments for system upgradation Price water at realistic levels Improve water productivity Go for technological fixes Export oriented agriculture Intermediate/transition economies Invest in smaller schemes dedicated to high value crops Invest in water savings Ensure financial viability, even if not full cost recovery Dependent on agriculture Developing economies Concentrate on cereal production & livelihood goals Built new infrastructure if feasible or modernize existing ones Provide government and external financing of irrigation schemes

10. New threat? Or opportunity? Land acquisitions in other countries Source: Mukherji, A et al. 2009. Revitalizing Asia’s irrigation: to sustainably meet tomorrow’s food needs.

11. Thank you For copies of the draft Issue Paper Contact Aditi Mukherji [email_address] Related Publication : Mukherji, Aditi; Facon, T.; Burke, J.; de Fraiture, Charlotte; Faures, J. M.; Fuleki, Blanka; Giordano, Mark; Molden, David; Shah, Tushaar. 2009. Revitalizing Asia's irrigation : to sustainably meet tomorrow's food needs. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI); Rome, Italy: FAO. 39p. < http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Other/PDF/Revitalizing%20Asia%27s%20Irrigation.pdf >